The episodic resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 virus.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 activity has intensified globally since 2021, increasingly causing mass mortality in wild birds and poultry and incidental infections in mammals1-3. However, the ecological and virological properties that underscore future mitigation strategies still remain unclear. Using epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches, we demonstrate changes in the origins of resurgent HPAI H5 and reveal significant shifts in virus ecology and evolution. Outbreak data show key resurgent events in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, contributing to the emergence and panzootic spread of H5N1 in 2021-2022. Genomic analysis reveals that the 2016-2017 epizootics originated in Asia, where HPAI H5 reservoirs are endemic. In 2020-2021, 2.3.4.4b H5N8 viruses emerged in African poultry, featuring mutations altering HA structure and receptor binding. In 2021-2022, a new H5N1 virus evolved through reassortment in wild birds in Europe, undergoing further reassortment with low-pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic birds during global dissemination. These results highlight a shift in the HPAI H5 epicentre beyond Asia and indicate that increasing persistence of HPAI H5 in wild birds is facilitating geographic and host range expansion, accelerating dispersion velocity and increasing reassortment potential. As earlier outbreaks of H5N1 and H5N8 were caused by more stable genomic constellations, these recent changes reflect adaptation across the domestic-bird-wild-bird interface. Elimination strategies in domestic birds therefore remain a high priority to limit future epizootics.

Long-Term Epidemiology and Evolution of Swine Influenza Viruses, Vietnam.

Influenza A viruses are a One Health threat because they can spill over between host populations, including among humans, swine, and birds. Surveillance of swine influenza virus in Hanoi, Vietnam, during 2013-2019 revealed gene pool enrichment from imported swine from Asia and North America and showed long-term maintenance, persistence, and reassortment of virus lineages. Genome sequencing showed continuous enrichment of H1 and H3 diversity through repeat introduction of human virus variants and swine influenza viruses endemic in other countries. In particular, the North American H1-δ1a strain, which has a triple-reassortant backbone that potentially results in increased human adaptation, emerged as a virus that could pose a zoonotic threat. Co-circulation of H1-δ1a viruses with other swine influenza virus genotypes raises concerns for both human and animal health.

Detection of Clade 2.3.4.4b Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus in Cambodia, 2021.

In late 2021, highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses were detected in domestic ducks in poultry markets in Cambodia. Surveillance, biosafety, and biosecurity efforts should be bolstered along the poultry value chain to limit spread and infection risk at the animal-human interface.

Monitoring International Travelers Arriving in Hong Kong for Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.

We sequenced ≈50% of coronavirus disease cases imported to Hong Kong during March-July 2021 and identified 70 cases caused by Delta variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The genomic diversity detected in Hong Kong was similar to global diversity, suggesting travel hubs can play a substantial role in surveillance.

Genetic and Antigenic Characterization of an Influenza A(H3N2) Outbreak in Cambodia and the Greater Mekong Subregion during the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020.

Introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 in early 2020 coincided with a global decrease in active influenza circulation. However, between July and November 2020, an influenza A(H3N2) epidemic occurred in Cambodia and in other neighboring countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion in Southeast Asia. We characterized the genetic and antigenic evolution of A(H3N2) in Cambodia and found that the 2020 epidemic comprised genetically and antigenically similar viruses of Clade3C2a1b/131K/94N, but they were distinct from the WHO recommended influenza A(H3N2) vaccine virus components for 2020-2021 Northern Hemisphere season. Phylogenetic analysis revealed multiple virus migration events between Cambodia and bordering countries, with Laos PDR and Vietnam also reporting similar A(H3N2) epidemics immediately following the Cambodia outbreak: however, there was limited circulation of these viruses elsewhere globally. In February 2021, a virus from the Cambodian outbreak was recommended by WHO as the prototype virus for inclusion in the 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere influenza vaccine. IMPORTANCE The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly altered the circulation patterns of respiratory diseases worldwide and disrupted continued surveillance in many countries. Introduction of control measures in early 2020 against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has resulted in a remarkable reduction in the circulation of many respiratory diseases. Influenza activity has remained at historically low levels globally since March 2020, even when increased influenza testing was performed in some countries. Maintenance of the influenza surveillance system in Cambodia in 2020 allowed for the detection and response to an influenza A(H3N2) outbreak in late 2020, resulting in the inclusion of this virus in the 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere influenza vaccine.

Genetic Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 among Travelers Arriving in Hong Kong.

We sequenced 10% of imported severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections detected in travelers to Hong Kong and revealed the genomic diversity of regions of origin, including lineages not previously reported from those countries. Our results suggest that international or regional travel hubs might be useful surveillance sites to monitor sequence diversity.

Bayesian Evaluation of Temporal Signal in Measurably Evolving Populations.

Phylogenetic methods can use the sampling times of molecular sequence data to calibrate the molecular clock, enabling the estimation of evolutionary rates and timescales for rapidly evolving pathogens and data sets containing ancient DNA samples. A key aspect of such calibrations is whether a sufficient amount of molecular evolution has occurred over the sampling time window, that is, whether the data can be treated as having come from a measurably evolving population. Here, we investigate the performance of a fully Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal (BETS) in sequence data. The method involves comparing the fit to the data of two models: a model in which the data are accompanied by the actual (heterochronous) sampling times, and a model in which the samples are constrained to be contemporaneous (isochronous). We conducted simulations under a wide range of conditions to demonstrate that BETS accurately classifies data sets according to whether they contain temporal signal or not, even when there is substantial among-lineage rate variation. We explore the behavior of this classification in analyses of five empirical data sets: modern samples of A/H1N1 influenza virus, the bacterium Bordetella pertussis, coronaviruses from mammalian hosts, ancient DNA from Hepatitis B virus, and mitochondrial genomes of dog species. Our results indicate that BETS is an effective alternative to other tests of temporal signal. In particular, this method has the key advantage of allowing a coherent assessment of the entire model, including the molecular clock and tree prior which are essential aspects of Bayesian phylodynamic analyses.

Genome-Scale Phylogeny and Evolutionary Analysis of Ross River Virus Reveals Periodic Sweeps of Lineage Dominance in Western Australia, 1977-2014.

Ross River virus (RRV), an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, is the most medically significant mosquito-borne virus of Australia. Past RRV phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses have been based on partial genome analyses only. Three geographically distinct RRV lineages, the Eastern, the Western, and the supposedly extinct North-Eastern lineage, were classified previously. We sought to expand on past phylogenies through robust genome-scale phylogeny to better understand RRV genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics. We analyzed 106 RRV complete coding sequences, which included 13 genomes available on NCBI and 94 novel sequences derived for this study, sampled throughout Western Australia (1977-2014) and during the substantial Pacific Islands RRV epidemic (1979-1980). Our final data set comprised isolates sampled over 59 years (1959-2018) from a range of locations. Four distinct genotypes were defined, with the newly described genotype 4 (G4) found to be the contemporary lineage circulating in Western Australia. The prior geographical classification of RRV lineages was not supported by our findings, with evidence of geographical and temporal cocirculation of distinct genetic groups. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis revealed that RRV lineages diverged from a common ancestor approximately 94 years ago, with distinct lineages emerging roughly every 10 years over the past 50 years in periodic bursts of genetic diversity. Our study has enabled a more robust analysis of RRV evolutionary history and resolved greater genetic diversity that had been previously defined by partial E2 gene analysis.IMPORTANCE Ross River virus (RRV) causes the most common mosquito-borne infection in Australia and causes a significant burden of suffering to infected individuals as well as being a large burden to the Australian economy. The genetic diversity of RRV and its evolutionary history have so far only been studied using partial E2 gene analysis with a limited number of isolates. Robust whole-genome analysis has not yet been conducted. This study generated 94 novel near-whole-genome sequences to investigate the evolutionary history of RRV to better understand its genetic diversity through comprehensive whole-genome phylogeny. A better understanding of RRV genetic diversity will enable better diagnostics, surveillance, and potential future vaccine design.

Locally Acquired Human Infection with Swine-Origin Influenza A(H3N2) Variant Virus, Australia, 2018.

In 2018, a 15-year-old female adolescent in Australia was infected with swine influenza A(H3N2) variant virus. The virus contained hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes derived from 1990s-like human seasonal viruses and internal protein genes from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, highlighting the potential risk that swine influenza A virus poses to human health in Australia.

Divergent Human-Origin Influenza Viruses Detected in Australian Swine Populations.

Global swine populations infected with influenza A viruses pose a persistent pandemic risk. With the exception of a few countries, our understanding of the genetic diversity of swine influenza viruses is limited, hampering control measures and pandemic risk assessment. Here we report the genomic characteristics and evolutionary history of influenza A viruses isolated in Australia from 2012 to 2016 from two geographically isolated swine populations in the states of Queensland and Western Australia. Phylogenetic analysis with an expansive human and swine influenza virus data set comprising >40,000 sequences sampled globally revealed evidence of the pervasive introduction and long-term establishment of gene segments derived from several human influenza viruses of past seasons, including the H1N1/1977, H1N1/1995, H3N2/1968, and H3N2/2003, and the H1N1 2009 pandemic (H1N1pdm09) influenza A viruses, and a genotype that contained gene segments derived from the past three pandemics (1968, reemerged 1977, and 2009). Of the six human-derived gene lineages, only one, comprising two viruses isolated in Queensland during 2012, was closely related to swine viruses detected from other regions, indicating a previously undetected circulation of Australian swine lineages for approximately 3 to 44 years. Although the date of introduction of these lineages into Australian swine populations could not be accurately ascertained, we found evidence of sustained transmission of two lineages in swine from 2012 to 2016. The continued detection of human-origin influenza virus lineages in swine over several decades with little or unpredictable antigenic drift indicates that isolated swine populations can act as antigenic archives of human influenza viruses, raising the risk of reemergence in humans when sufficient susceptible populations arise.IMPORTANCE We describe the evolutionary origins and antigenic properties of influenza A viruses isolated from two separate Australian swine populations from 2012 to 2016, showing that these viruses are distinct from each other and from those isolated from swine globally. Whole-genome sequencing of virus isolates revealed a high genotypic diversity that had been generated exclusively through the introduction and establishment of human influenza viruses that circulated in past seasons. We detected six reassortants with gene segments derived from human H1N1/H1N1pdm09 and various human H3N2 viruses that circulated during various periods since 1968. We also found that these swine viruses were not related to swine viruses collected elsewhere, indicating independent circulation. The detection of unique lineages and genotypes in Australia suggests that isolated swine populations that are sufficiently large can sustain influenza virus for extensive periods; we show direct evidence of a sustained transmission for at least 4 years between 2012 and 2016.

Intense interseasonal influenza outbreaks, Australia, 2018/19.

BackgroundInterseasonal influenza outbreaks are not unusual in countries with temperate climates and well-defined influenza seasons. Usually, these are small and diminish before the main influenza season begins. However, the 2018/19 summer-autumn interseasonal influenza period in Australia saw unprecedented large and widespread influenza outbreaks.AimOur objective was to determine the extent of the intense 2018/19 interseasonal influenza outbreaks in Australia epidemiologically and examine the genetic, antigenic and structural properties of the viruses responsible for these outbreaks.MethodsThis observational study combined the epidemiological and virological surveillance data obtained from the Australian Government Department of Health, the New South Wales Ministry of Health, sentinel outpatient surveillance, public health laboratories and data generated by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne and the Singapore Agency for Science, Technology and Research.ResultsThere was a record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases during the interseasonal period November 2018 to May 2019 (n= 85,286; 5 times the previous 3-year average) and also more institutional outbreaks, hospitalisations and deaths, than what is normally seen.ConclusionsThe unusually large interseasonal influenza outbreaks in 2018/19 followed a mild 2018 influenza season and resulted in a very early start to the 2019 influenza season across Australia. The reasons for this unusual event have yet to be fully elucidated but are likely to be a complex mix of climatic, virological and host immunity-related factors. These outbreaks reinforce the need for year-round surveillance of influenza, even in temperate climates with strong seasonality patterns.

Detection and phylogenetic analysis of contemporary H14N2 Avian influenza A virus in domestic ducks in Southeast Asia (Cambodia).

Avian influenza virus (AIV) in Asia is a complex system with numerous subtypes and a highly porous wild birds-poultry interface. Certain AIV subtypes, such as H14, are underrepresented in current surveillance efforts, leaving gaps in our understanding of their ecology and evolution. The detection of rare subtype H14 in domestic ducks in Southeast Asia comprises a geographic region and domestic bird population previously unassociated with this subtype. These H14 viruses have a complex evolutionary history involving gene reassortment events. They share sequence similarity to AIVs endemic in Cambodian ducks, and Eurasian low pathogenicity and high pathogenicity H5Nx AIVs. The detection of these H14 viruses in Southeast Asian domestic poultry further advances our knowledge of the ecology and evolution of this subtype and reinforces the need for continued, longitudinal, active surveillance in domestic and wild birds. Additionally, in vivo and in vitro risk assessment should encompass rare AIV subtypes, as they have the potential to establish in poultry systems.

A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) influenza pandemics elicited durable cross-reactive and protective antibodies against avian N2 neuraminidases.

Human cases of avian influenza virus (AIV) infections are associated with an age-specific disease burden. As the influenza virus N2 neuraminidase (NA) gene was introduced from avian sources during the 1957 pandemic, we investigate the reactivity of N2 antibodies against A(H9N2) AIVs. Serosurvey of healthy individuals reveal the highest rates of AIV N2 antibodies in individuals aged ≥65 years. Exposure to the 1968 pandemic N2, but not recent N2, protected against A(H9N2) AIV challenge in female mice. In some older adults, infection with contemporary A(H3N2) virus could recall cross-reactive AIV NA antibodies, showing discernable human- or avian-NA type reactivity. Individuals born before 1957 have higher anti-AIV N2 titers compared to those born between 1957 and 1968. The anti-AIV N2 antibodies titers correlate with antibody titers to the 1957 N2, suggesting that exposure to the A(H2N2) virus contribute to this reactivity. These findings underscore the critical role of neuraminidase immunity in zoonotic and pandemic influenza risk assessment.

Detection of Coronaviruses in Bats in Lebanon during 2020.

Bats are considered the main reservoir of coronaviruses (CoVs), and research evidence suggests the essential role of bats in the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronaviruses (SARS-CoV) and SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-like viruses have been recently detected in bats in different countries. In 2020, we conducted surveillance for CoVs among six different bat species in Lebanon. Of 622 swab specimens taken, 77 tested positive. Alpha- and Beta- CoVs were identified in samples collected from different species. Our results show that SARS-like coronaviruses circulate in bats in this region, and we provide new data on their genetic diversity. The interaction between the spike of the detected SARS-CoV-like viruses and the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) receptor could be crucial in understanding the origin of the epidemic. The 3D protein structure analysis revealed that the receptor-binding domains of the SARS-like virus identified in Lebanon bind to the hACE2 protein more efficiently than to the spike of the SARS-CoV-2 strain. The spike of the detected SARS-CoV-like viruses does not contain the recognition site of furin at the cleavage site. Thus, our study highlights the variety of bat coronaviruses in Lebanon and suggests the zoonotic potential for other SARS-CoV-like viruses.

The evolutionary mechanism of non-carbapenemase carbapenem-resistant phenotypes in Klebsiella spp.

Antibiotic resistance is driven by selection, but the degree to which a bacterial strain's evolutionary history shapes the mechanism and strength of resistance remains an open question. Here, we reconstruct the genetic and evolutionary mechanisms of carbapenem resistance in a clinical isolate of Klebsiella quasipneumoniae. A combination of short- and long-read sequencing, machine learning, and genetic and enzymatic analyses established that this carbapenem-resistant strain carries no carbapenemase-encoding genes. Genetic reconstruction of the resistance phenotype confirmed that two distinct genetic loci are necessary in order for the strain to acquire carbapenem resistance. Experimental evolution of the carbapenem-resistant strains in growth conditions without the antibiotic revealed that both loci confer a significant cost and are readily lost by de novo mutations resulting in the rapid evolution of a carbapenem-sensitive phenotype. To explain how carbapenem resistance evolves via multiple, low-fitness single-locus intermediates, we hypothesised that one of these loci had previously conferred adaptation to another antibiotic. Fitness assays in a range of drug concentrations show how selection in the antibiotic ceftazidime can select for one gene (blaDHA-1) potentiating the evolution of carbapenem resistance by a single mutation in a second gene (ompK36). These results show how a patient's treatment history might shape the evolution of antibiotic resistance and could explain the genetic basis of carbapenem-resistance found in many enteric-pathogens.

Resurgence of Omicron BA.2 in SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive Hong Kong.

Hong Kong experienced a surge of Omicron BA.2 infections in early 2022, resulting in one of the highest per-capita death rates of COVID-19. The outbreak occurred in a dense population with low immunity towards natural SARS-CoV-2 infection, high vaccine hesitancy in vulnerable populations, comprehensive disease surveillance and the capacity for stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs). By analyzing genome sequences and epidemiological data, we reconstructed the epidemic trajectory of BA.2 wave and found that the initial BA.2 community transmission emerged from cross-infection within hotel quarantine. The rapid implementation of PHSMs suppressed early epidemic growth but the effective reproduction number (Re) increased again during the Spring festival in early February and remained around 1 until early April. Independent estimates of point prevalence and incidence using phylodynamics also showed extensive superspreading at this time, which likely contributed to the rapid expansion of the epidemic. Discordant inferences based on genomic and epidemiological data underscore the need for research to improve near real-time epidemic growth estimates by combining multiple disparate data sources to better inform outbreak response policy.

Effect of Baloxavir and Oseltamivir in Combination on Infection with Influenza Viruses with PA/I38T or PA/E23K Substitutions in the Ferret Model.

Amino acid substitutions I38T and E23K in the influenza polymerase acidic (PA) protein lead to reduced susceptibility to the influenza antiviral drug baloxavir. The in vivo effectiveness of baloxavir and oseltamivir for treatment of these viruses is currently unknown. Using patient-derived influenza isolates, combination therapy was equally effective as monotherapy in reducing viral titers in the upper respiratory tract of ferrets infected with A(H1N1pdm09)-PA/E23K or A(H3N2)-PA/I38T. When treated with baloxavir plus oseltamivir, infection with a mixture of PA/I38T or PA/E23K and corresponding wild-type virus was characterized by a lower selection of viruses with reduced baloxavir susceptibility over the course of infection compared to baloxavir monotherapy. De novo emergence of the oseltamivir resistance mutation NA/H275Y occurred in ferrets treated with oseltamivir alone but not in ferrets treated with baloxavir plus oseltamivir. Our data suggest that combination therapy with influenza drugs with different mechanisms of action decreased the selection pressure for viruses with reduced drug susceptibility. IMPORTANCE Influenza viruses cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide but can be treated with antiviral drugs. In 2018, a highly effective antiviral drug, baloxavir marboxil, was licensed. However, the selection of viruses with baloxavir resistance was relatively high following treatment, which may compromise the effectiveness of the drug. Here, we took two different influenza viruses that are resistant to baloxavir and tested the effectiveness alone and in combination with oseltamivir (a second influenza antiviral drug) in the ferret model. Our findings suggest that combination treatment may be a more effective method than monotherapy to reduce the selection of resistant viruses. These results may have important clinical implications for the treatment of influenza.

Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination.

Annual epidemics of seasonal influenza cause hundreds of thousands of deaths, high levels of morbidity, and substantial economic loss. Yet, global influenza circulation has been heavily suppressed by public health measures and travel restrictions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the influenza B/Yamagata lineage has not been conclusively detected since April 2020, and A(H3N2), A(H1N1), and B/Victoria viruses have since circulated with considerably less genetic diversity. Travel restrictions have largely confined regional outbreaks of A(H3N2) to South and Southeast Asia, B/Victoria to China, and A(H1N1) to West Africa. Seasonal influenza transmission lineages continue to perish globally, except in these select hotspots, which will likely seed future epidemics. Waning population immunity and sporadic case detection will further challenge influenza vaccine strain selection and epidemic control. We offer a perspective on the potential short- and long-term evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza and discuss potential consequences and mitigation strategies as global travel gradually returns to pre-pandemic levels.

Genomic epidemiology of seasonal influenza circulation in China during prolonged border closure from 2020 to 2021.

China experienced a resurgence of seasonal influenza activity throughout 2021 despite intermittent control measures and prolonged international border closure. We show genomic evidence for multiple A(H3N2), A(H1N1), and B/Victoria transmission lineages circulating over 3 years, with the 2021 resurgence mainly driven by two B/Victoria clades. Phylodynamic analysis revealed unsampled ancestry prior to widespread outbreaks in December 2020, showing that influenza lineages can circulate cryptically under non-pharmaceutical interventions enacted against COVID-19. Novel haemagglutinin gene mutations and altered age profiles of infected individuals were observed, and Jiangxi province was identified as a major source for nationwide outbreaks. Following major holiday periods, fluctuations in the effective reproduction number were observed, underscoring the importance of influenza vaccination prior to holiday periods or travel. Extensive heterogeneity in seasonal influenza circulation patterns in China determined by historical strain circulation indicates that a better understanding of demographic patterns is needed for improving effective controls.

Off-season RSV epidemics in Australia after easing of COVID-19 restrictions.

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of acute respiratory infection with the most severe disease in the young and elderly. Non-pharmaceutical interventions and travel restrictions for controlling COVID-19 have impacted the circulation of most respiratory viruses including RSV globally, particularly in Australia, where during 2020 the normal winter epidemics were notably absent. However, in late 2020, unprecedented widespread RSV outbreaks occurred, beginning in spring, and extending into summer across two widely separated regions of the Australian continent, New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) in the east, and Western Australia. Through genomic sequencing we reveal a major reduction in RSV genetic diversity following COVID-19 emergence with two genetically distinct RSV-A clades circulating cryptically, likely localised for several months prior to an epidemic surge in cases upon relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. The NSW/ACT clade subsequently spread to the neighbouring state of Victoria and to cause extensive outbreaks and hospitalisations in early 2021. These findings highlight the need for continued surveillance and sequencing of RSV and other respiratory viruses during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as mitigation measures may disrupt seasonal patterns, causing larger or more severe outbreaks.