Prediction of therapy response of breast cancer patients with machine learning based on clinical data and imaging data derived from breast [18F]FDG-PET/MRI.

PURPOSE: To evaluate if a machine learning prediction model based on clinical and easily assessable imaging features derived from baseline breast [18F]FDG-PET/MRI staging can predict pathologic complete response (pCR) in patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer prior to neoadjuvant system therapy (NAST). METHODS: Altogether 143 women with newly diagnosed breast cancer (54 ± 12 years) were retrospectively enrolled. All women underwent a breast [18F]FDG-PET/MRI, a histopathological workup of their breast cancer lesions and evaluation of clinical data. Fifty-six features derived from positron emission tomography (PET), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), sociodemographic / anthropometric, histopathologic as well as clinical data were generated and used as input for an extreme Gradient Boosting model (XGBoost) to predict pCR. The model was evaluated in a five-fold nested-cross-validation incorporating independent hyper-parameter tuning within the inner loops to reduce the risk of overoptimistic estimations. Diagnostic model-performance was assessed by determining the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy. Furthermore, feature importances of the XGBoost model were evaluated to assess which features contributed most to distinguish between pCR and non-pCR. RESULTS: Nested-cross-validation yielded a mean ROC-AUC of 80.4 ± 6.0% for prediction of pCR. Mean sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 54.5 ± 21.3%, 83.6 ± 4.2%, 63.6 ± 8.5%, and 77.6 ± 8.1% could be achieved. Histopathological data were the most important features for classification of the XGBoost model followed by PET, MRI, and sociodemographic/anthropometric features. CONCLUSION: The evaluated multi-source XGBoost model shows promising results for reliably predicting pathological complete response in breast cancer patients prior to NAST. However, yielded performance is yet insufficient to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process.