Analysis of the gut microbiome associated to PVC biodegradation in yellow mealworms.

The potential of invertebrates in the biodegradation of plastic polymers such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is receiving increasing attention. The present study is aimed to identify the gut microbiome involved in this degradation in yellow mealworms, i.e., the larvae of Tenebrio molitor Linnaeus. The egested PVC polymer experienced a dramatic reduction in both number average molecular weight (Mn) and weight average molecular weight (Mw) of 99.3% and 99.6%, respectively, whereas FTIR analysis revealed chemical alterations. Mass spectrometry analysis identified two potential degradation products: phthalic acid, di(2-propylpentyl) ester and 2-Propenoic acid, tridecyl ester. Further, we used metagenomic sequencing to elucidate the response of the gut microbiome when transitioning from bran to PVC as a food source, identifying four microorganisms actively involved in PVC degradation. Additionally, metagenomic functional analysis of the gut microbiome identified 111 key gene modules that were significantly enriched. In summary, our findings suggest that yellow mealworms adapt to PVC degradation by modifying their gut microbiome both structurally and functionally.

Effect of HIV and antiretroviral therapy use on body weight changes in a cohort of U.S. veterans living with and without HIV.

OBJECTIVE: People living with HIV have high rates of obesity and obesity-related comorbidities. Our study sought to evaluate weight trajectory in a retrospective cohort of people living with HIV and matched HIV-negative veterans (controls) and to evaluate risk factors for weight gain. METHODS: This was a retrospective database analysis of data extracted from the VA Corporate Data Warehouse that included people living with HIV (n = 22 421) and age-matched HIV-negative controls (n = 63 072). The main outcomes were baseline body weight and weight change from baseline at 1, 2, and 5 years after diagnosis (baseline visit for controls). RESULTS: Body weight at baseline was lower in people living with HIV than in controls. People living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) gained more weight than did controls. In a sub-analysis of ART-exposed people living with HIV, age >50 years, African American race, body mass index (BMI) <25, CD4 ≤200, and HIV diagnosis year after 2000 were associated with more weight gain at year 1. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus non-NRTIs (NNRTIs) were associated with less weight gain than NRTIs plus protease inhibitors, NRTIs plus integrase inhibitors, or NRTIs plus other agents at year 1. CONCLUSIONS: Among US veterans, those living with HIV had lower rates of obesity than age-matched HIV-negative controls; however, primarily in the first 2 years after starting ART, people living with HIV gained more weight than did controls.

Automated fundus ultrasound image classification based on siamese convolutional neural networks with multi-attention.

Fundus ultrasound image classification is a critical issue in the medical field. Vitreous opacity (VO) and posterior vitreous detachment (PVD) are two common eye diseases, Now, the diagnosis of these two diseases mainly relies on manual identification by doctors. This method has the disadvantages of time-consuming and manual investment, so it is very meaningful to use computer technology to assist doctors in diagnosis. This paper is the first to apply the deep learning model to VO and PVD classification tasks. Convolutional neural network (CNN) is widely used in image classification. Traditional CNN requires a large amount of training data to prevent overfitting, and it is difficult to learn the differences between two kinds of images well. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end siamese convolutional neural network with multi-attention (SVK_MA) for automatic classification of VO and PVD fundus ultrasound images. SVK_MA is a siamese-structure network in which each branch is mainly composed of pretrained VGG16 embedded with multiple attention models. Each image first is normalized, then is sent to SVK_MA to extract features from the normalized images, and finally gets the classification result. Our approach has been validated on the dataset provided by the cooperative hospital. The experimental results show that our approach achieves the accuracy of 0.940, precision of 0.941, recall of 0.940, F1 of 0.939 which are respectively increased by 2.5%, 1.9%, 3.4% and 2.5% compared with the second highest model.

Clinical Timing-Sequence Warning Models for Serious Bacterial Infections in Adults Based on Machine Learning: Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Serious bacterial infections (SBIs) are linked to unplanned hospital admissions and a high mortality rate. The early identification of SBIs is crucial in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish and validate clinically applicable models designed to identify SBIs in patients with infective fever. METHODS: Clinical data from 945 patients with infective fever, encompassing demographic and laboratory indicators, were retrospectively collected from a 2200-bed teaching hospital between January 2013 and December 2020. The data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 7:3. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms, including Boruta, Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), and recursive feature elimination, were utilized for feature filtering. The selected features were subsequently used to construct models predicting SBIs using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with 5-fold cross-validation. Performance metrics, including the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other relevant parameters, were used to assess model performance. Considering both model performance and clinical needs, 2 clinical timing-sequence warning models were ultimately confirmed using LR analysis. The corresponding predictive nomograms were then plotted for clinical use. Moreover, a physician, blinded to the study, collected additional data from the same center involving 164 patients during 2021. The nomograms developed in the study were then applied in clinical practice to further validate their clinical utility. RESULTS: In total, 69.9% (661/945) of the patients developed SBIs. Age, hemoglobin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, fibrinogen, and C-reactive protein levels were identified as important features by at least two ML algorithms. Considering the collection sequence of these indicators and clinical demands, 2 timing-sequence models predicting the SBI risk were constructed accordingly: the early admission model (model 1) and the model within 24 hours of admission (model 2). LR demonstrated better stability than RF and XGBoost in both models and performed the best in model 2, with an AUC, accuracy, and sensitivity of 0.780 (95% CI 0.720-841), 0.754 (95% CI 0.698-804), and 0.776 (95% CI 0.711-832), respectively. XGBoost had an advantage over LR in AUC (0.708, 95% CI 0.641-775 vs 0.686, 95% CI 0.617-754), while RF achieved better accuracy (0.729, 95% CI 0.673-780) and sensitivity (0.790, 95% CI 0.728-844) than the other 2 approaches in model 1. Two SBI-risk prediction nomograms were developed for clinical use based on LR, and they exhibited good performance with an accuracy of 0.707 and 0.750 and a sensitivity of 0.729 and 0.927 in clinical application. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical timing-sequence warning models demonstrated efficacy in predicting SBIs in patients suspected of having infective fever and in clinical application, suggesting good potential in clinical decision-making. Nevertheless, additional prospective and multicenter studies are necessary to further confirm their clinical utility.

Successful treatment of pulmonary injury due to nitrogen oxide exposure with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a report of two cases and literature review.

Background: Severe nitrogen oxide poisoning can lead to life-threatening pulmonary injury.Methods: we report two cases of severe nitrogen-oxide-induced hypoxia treated with veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). After exposure, the conditions of both patients continued to deteriorate despite maximal mechanical ventilation with a fraction of inspired oxygen of 100%; therefore, we started veno-venous ECMO. The times from presentation to the initiation of ECMO in the two patients were 1 and 2 days. The hypoxemia and respiratory failure improved quickly after ECMO support.Results: The patients were discharged without complications. The durations of ECMO for the two patients were 5 and 6 days. Conclusion: This report describes how early ECMO support was used to treat potentially fatal pulmonary injury after exposure to nitrogen oxide. The duration of the ECMO run is a critical determinant of patient survival.

Veteran Women Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Have Increased Risk of Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-Associated Genital Tract Cancers.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in access to screening often confound observed differences in human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated female genital tract cancer (FGTC) incidence between women living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; WLWH) and their HIV-negative counterparts. We aimed to determine if there have been changes in cancer risk among WLWH during the antiretroviral era in a single-payer health system. METHODS: We retrospectively selected WLWH and HIV-negative controls receiving care between 1999 and 2016 at the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and identified FGTC diagnoses via Cancer Registry and International Classification of Diseases-9/10 codes. We extracted demographic and clinical variables from the VA's Corporate Data Warehouse; evaluated incidence rates (IRs), incidence rate ratios, hazard ratios, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer risk; and conducted survival analyses. RESULTS: We identified 1454 WLWH and compared them with 5816 matched HIV-negative controls. More WLWH developed HPV-associated FGTCs (total n = 28 [2.0%]; cervical = 22, vulvovaginal = 4, and anal/rectal = 2) than HIV-negative women (total n = 32 [0.6%]; cervical = 24, vulvovaginal = 5, and anal/rectal = 5) (log rank P < .0001). Cervical cancer IR was >6-fold higher for WLWH (204.2 per 100 000 person-years [py] [95% CI, 83.8-324.7]) than HIV-negative women (IR = 31.2 per 100 000 py [95% CI, 17.9-44.5]). The IRs for vulvovaginal and anal cancers were also higher in WLWH. Overall, WLWH were more likely to develop HPV-associated FGTCs compared with their HIV-negative counterparts (all log rank P values < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Veteran WLWH are more likely to develop HPV-associated FGTCs despite equal access to health care. Even in single-payer health systems, WLWH continue to require special attention to ensure guideline-based high-risk HPV screening for prevention of FGTCs.

Comparative Effectiveness of Risk-adjusted Cumulative Sum and Periodic Evaluation for Monitoring Hospital Perioperative Mortality.

BACKGROUND: National surgical quality improvement (QI) programs use periodic, risk-adjusted evaluation to identify hospitals with higher than expected perioperative mortality. Rapid, accurate identification of poorly performing hospitals is critical for avoiding potentially preventable mortality and represents an opportunity to enhance QI efforts. METHODS: Hospital-level analysis using Veterans Affairs (VA) Surgical Quality Improvement Program data (2011-2016) to compare identification of hospitals with excess, risk-adjusted 30-day mortality using observed-to-expected (O-E) ratios (ie, current gold standard) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) with V-mask. Various V-mask slopes and radii were evaluated-slope of 2.5 and radius of 1.0 was used as the base case. RESULTS: Hospitals identified by CUSUM and quarterly O-E were identified midway into a quarter [median 47 days; interquartile range (IQR): 24-61 days before quarter end] translating to a median of 129 (IQR: 60-187) surgical cases and 368 (IQR: 145-681) postoperative inpatient days occurring after a CUSUM signal, but before the quarter end. At hospitals identified by CUSUM but not O-E, a median of 2 deaths within a median of 5 days triggered a signal. In some cases, these clusters extended beyond CUSUM identification date with as many as 8 deaths undetected using O-E. Sensitivity and negative predictive values for CUSUM relative to O-E were 71.9% (95% confidence interval: 66.2%-77.1%) and 95.5% (94.4%-96.4%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CUSUM evaluation identifies hospitals with clusters of mortality in excess of expected more rapidly than periodic analysis. CUSUM represents an analytic tool national QI programs could utilize to provide participating hospitals with data that could facilitate more proactive implementation of local interventions to help reduce potentially avoidable perioperative mortality.

The association between protease inhibitors and anal cancer outcomes in veterans living with HIV treated with definitive chemoradiation: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma has been increasing, particularly in people living with HIV (PLWH). There is concern that radiosensitizing drugs, such as protease inhibitors, commonly used in the management of HIV, may increase toxicities in patients undergoing chemoradiation. This study examines treatment outcomes and toxicities in PLWH managed with and without protease inhibitors who are receiving chemoradiation for anal cancer. METHODS: Patient demographic, HIV management, and cancer treatment information were extracted from multiple Veterans Affairs databases. Patients were also manually chart reviewed. Among PLWH undergoing chemoradiation for anal carcinoma, therapy outcomes and toxicities were compared between those treated with and without protease inhibitors at time of cancer treatment. Statistical analysis was performed using chi-square, Cox regression analysis, and logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 219 PLWH taking anti-retroviral therapy undergoing chemoradiation for anal cancer were identified and included in the final analysis. The use of protease inhibitors was not associated with any survival outcome including colostomy-free survival, progression-free survival, or overall survival (all adjusted hazard ratio p-values> 0.05). Regarding toxicity, protease inhibitor use was not associated with an increased odds of hospitalizations or non-hematologic toxicities; however, protease inhibitor use was associated with increased hospitalizations for hematologic toxicities, including febrile neutropenia (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The use of protease inhibitors during chemoradiation for anal carcinoma was not associated with any clinical outcome or increase in non-hematologic toxicity. Their use was associated with increased hospitalizations for hematologic toxicities. Further prospective research is needed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of protease inhibitors for patients undergoing chemoradiation.

Meta-analysis of vitamin D and lung function in patients with asthma.

BACKGROUND: There is growing literature suggesting a link between vitamin D and asthma lung function, but the results from systematic reviews are conflicting. We conducted this meta-analysis to investigate the relation between serum vitamin D and lung function in asthma patients. METHODS: Major databases, including OVID, MEDLINE, Web of Science and PUBMED, were searched until 10th October 2018. All published observational studies related to vitamin D and asthma were extracted. All meta-analyses were performed using Review Manager 5.3.5. RESULTS: This quantitative synthesis found that asthma patients with low vitamin D levels had lower forced expiratory volume In 1 s (FEV1) (mean difference (MD) = - 0.1, 95% CI = - 0.11 to - 0.08,p < 0.01;I2 = 49%, p = 0.12) and FEV1% (MD = - 10.02, 95% CI = - 11 to - 9.04, p < 0.01; I2 = 0%, p = 0.82) than those with sufficient vitamin D levels. A positive relation was found between vitamin D and FEV1 (r = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.2, p = 0.003; I2 = 59%,p = 0.01), FEV1% (r = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.26, p < 0.001; I2 = 42%, p = 0.11), forced vital capacity (FVC) (r = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.00 to 0.34, p = 0.05; I2 = 60%, p = 0.04), FEV1/FVC (r = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.3 to 0.51, p < 0.001; I2 = 48%, p = 0.07), and the asthma control test (ACT) (r = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.2 to 0.47, p < 0.001; I2 = 0%, p = 0.7). Subgroup analysis indicated that the positive correlation between vitamin D and lung function remained significant in both children and adults. CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis suggested that serum vitamin D levels may be positively correlated with lung function in asthma patients. Future comprehensive studies are required to confirm these relations and to elucidate potential mechanisms.

Weight estimation among multi-racial/ethnic infants and children aged 0-5·9 years in the USA: simple tools for a critical measure.

OBJECTIVE: In resource-constrained facilities or during resuscitation, immediate paediatric weight estimation remains a fundamental challenge. We aimed to develop and validate weight estimation models based on ulna length and forearm width and circumference measured by simple and portable tools; and to compare them against previous methods (advanced paediatric life support (APLS), Theron and Traub-Johnson formulas). DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of anthropometric measurements. Four ulna- and forearm-based weight estimation models were developed in the training set (n 1016). Assessment of bias, precision and accuracy was examined in the validation set (n 457). SETTING: National Children's Study-Formative Research in Anthropometry (2011-2012). SUBJECTS: Multi-racial/ethnic infants and children aged <6 years (n 1473). RESULTS: Developed Models 1-4 had high predictive precision (R 2=0·91-0·97). Mean percentage errors between predicted and measured weight were significantly smaller across the developed models (0·1-0·7 %) v. the APLS, Theron and Traub-Johnson formulas (-1·7, 9·2 and -4·9 %, respectively). Root-mean-squared percentage error was overall smaller among Models 1-4 v. the three existing methods (range=7·5-8·7 v. 9·8-13·3 %). Further, Models 1-4 were within 10 and 20 % of actual weight in 72-87 and 95-99 % of the weight estimations, respectively, which outperformed any of the three existing methods. CONCLUSIONS: Ulna length, forearm width and forearm circumference by simple and portable tools could serve as valid and reliable surrogate measures of weight among infants and children aged <6 years with improved precision over the existing age- or length-based methods. Further validation of these models in physically impaired or non-ambulatory children is warranted.

Predictive Models for Characterizing Disparities in Exclusive Breastfeeding Performance in a Multi-ethnic Population in the US.

OBJECTIVES: Maternal lactation performance varies across populations, yet the relative impact of maternal sociodemographics, perinatal factors, and birth outcomes on disparities in exclusive breastfeeding (XBR) outcomes is not well known. We aimed to develop predictive models and compare the relative contribution of predictors for XBR initiation and XBR ≥ 6 months. METHODS: Infant feeding data were obtained from women with children aged 0-6 years (n = 1471) in a multi-ethnic cross-sectional study in the US (2011-2012). We compared discriminant ability of predictors for ever XBR and XBR ≥ 6 months using discriminant function analysis, respectively. We also calculated adjusted ORs for factors associated with XBR outcomes and breast-bottle feeding (BrBot) subgroups. RESULTS: Maternal sociodemographics (education level, marital status, nativity, and age at childbirth) had greater discriminating abilities in predicting ever XBR and XBR ≥ 6 months than birth outcomes and perinatal factors. Foreign-born women were two-fold more likely to initiate XBR but not necessarily continue to 6 months compared to their US-born counterparts. Factors associated with BrBot subgroups differed from those associated with XBR outcomes, whereas maternal age was the only predictor consistently associated with ever XBR, XBR ≥ 6 months, and BrBot subgroups. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for models predicting ever XBR and XBR ≥ 6 months were 0.88 (95 % CI 0.85, 0.91) and 0.90 (95 % CI 0.88, 0.93), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Findings underscore the importance of educational, clinical, and social support to promote XBR in mothers with sociodemographic factors predictive of none or poor XBR outcomes.

Arm span and ulnar length are reliable and accurate estimates of recumbent length and height in a multiethnic population of infants and children under 6 years of age.

Surrogate measures are needed when recumbent length or height is unobtainable or unreliable. Arm span has been used as a surrogate but is not feasible in children with shoulder or arm contractures. Ulnar length is not usually impaired by joint deformities, yet its utility as a surrogate has not been adequately studied. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to examine the accuracy and reliability of ulnar length measured by different tools as a surrogate measure of recumbent length and height. Anthropometrics [recumbent length, height, arm span, and ulnar length by caliper (ULC), ruler (ULR), and grid (ULG)] were measured in 1479 healthy infants and children aged <6 y across 8 study centers in the United States. Multivariate mixed-effects linear regression models for recumbent length and height were developed by using ulnar length and arm span as surrogate measures. The agreement between the measured length or height and the predicted values by ULC, ULR, ULG, and arm span were examined by Bland-Altman plots. All 3 measures of ulnar length and arm span were highly correlated with length and height. The degree of precision of prediction equations for length by ULC, ULR, and ULG (R(2) = 0.95, 0.95, and 0.92, respectively) was comparable with that by arm span (R(2) = 0.97) using age, sex, and ethnicity as covariates; however, height prediction by ULC (R(2) = 0.87), ULR (R(2) = 0.85), and ULG (R(2) = 0.88) was less comparable with arm span (R(2) = 0.94). Our study demonstrates that arm span and ULC, ULR, or ULG can serve as accurate and reliable surrogate measures of recumbent length and height in healthy children; however, ULC, ULR, and ULG tend to slightly overestimate length and height in young infants and children. Further testing of ulnar length as a surrogate is warranted in physically impaired or nonambulatory children.

Efficient Online Stream Clustering Based on Fast Peeling of Boundary Micro-Cluster.

A growing number of applications generate streaming data, making data stream mining a popular research topic. Classification-based streaming algorithms require pre-training on labeled data. Manually labeling a large number of samples in the data stream is impractical and cost-prohibitive. Stream clustering algorithms rely on unsupervised learning. They have been widely studied for their ability to effectively analyze high-speed data streams without prior knowledge. Stream clustering plays a key role in data stream mining. Currently, most data stream clustering algorithms adopt the online-offline framework. In the online stage, micro-clusters are maintained, and in the offline stage, they are clustered using an algorithm similar to density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). When data streams have clusters with varying densities and ambiguous boundaries, traditional data stream clustering algorithms may be less effective. To overcome the above limitations, this article proposes a fully online stream clustering algorithm called fast boundary peeling stream clustering (FBPStream). First, FBPStream defines a decay-based kernel density estimation (KDE). It can discover clusters with varying densities and identify the evolving trend of streams well. Then, FBPStream implements an efficient boundary micro-cluster peeling technique to identify the potential core micro-clusters. Finally, FBPStream employs a parallel clustering strategy to effectively cluster core and boundary micro-clusters. The proposed algorithm is compared with ten popular algorithms on 15 data streams. Experimental results show that FBPStream is competitive with the other ten popular algorithms.

Corticosteroid in non-COVID-19 induced community-acquired pneumonia, a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Corticosteroid treatment in non-COVID-19 induced Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the role of corticosteroid treatment in CAP. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive search of online databases, including PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane, to identify articles published from January 1, 2000, to May 5, 2023. Double-blind RCTs were selected. Two authors screened studies and extracted data. The evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 12 RCTs, involving 2446 patients. Corticosteroids therapy may reduce short-term mortality in patients with severe CAP (sCAP) and shorten the hospital length of stay in patients with CAP. Furthermore, corticosteroids treatment can decrease the risk of requiring mechanical ventilation, developing septic shock and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). There were no significant differences between the corticosteroid and control groups concerning gastrointestinal bleeding and nosocomial infection. The use of corticosteroids could increase the risk of hyperglycemia. CONCLUSION: Corticosteroid treatment for sCAP has the potential to provide benefits in reducing short-term mortality, but this conclusion necessitates more evidence. Besides, we found no evidence that strongly prevents us from using corticosteroids in patients with sCAP or those at risk of progressing to sCAP.

Risk and predictors of penile cancer in US Veterans with HIV.

OBJECTIVES: People with HIV (PWH) may have an increased burden of penile cancer. We aimed to evaluate the risk of penile cancer in PWH compared with that of the general population. DESIGN: We conducted a nationwide retrospective matched cohort study of penile cancer incidence among veterans with HIV (VWH) compared with veterans without HIV. METHODS: We compared penile cancer incidence rates in 44 173 VWH to those of veterans without HIV ( N  = 159 443; 4 : 1 matched in age). We used Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with HIV infection and for penile cancer risk factors. RESULTS: HIV positivity was associated with an increased risk of penile cancer, with adjusted hazard ratios of 2.63 (95% CI 1.64-4.23) when adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, baseline BMI, smoking and alcohol use, economic means test, and history of condyloma. The risk increased to hazard ratio = 4.25 (95% CI 2.75-6.57) when adjusting for all factors except history of condyloma. Risk factors for penile cancer in VWH included lower nadir CD4 + count, less than 50% of follow-up time with undetectable HIV viral load, and history of condyloma. CONCLUSION: VWH - particularly those with low CD4 + counts, detectable HIV viral loads, or history of condyloma - are at increased risk of penile cancer, suggesting the penile cancer prevention activities are needed in this population.

Case Sampling for Evaluating Hospital Postoperative Morbidity in US Surgical Quality Improvement Programs.

Importance: US surgical quality improvement (QI) programs use data from a systematic sample of surgical cases, rather than universal review of all cases, to assess and compare risk-adjusted hospital postoperative complication rates. Given decreasing postoperative complication rates over time and the types of cases eligible for abstraction, it is unclear whether case sampling is robust for identifying hospitals with higher than expected complications. Objective: To compare the assessment of hospital 30-day complication rates derived from sampling strategy used by some US surgical QI programs relative to universal review of all cases. Design, Setting, and Participants: This US hospital-level analysis took place from January 1, 2016, through September 30, 2020. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2022, through December 21, 2022. Quarterly, risk-adjusted, 30-day complication observed to expected (O-E) ratios were calculated for each hospital using the sample (n = 502 730) and universal review (n = 1 725 364). Outlier hospitals (ie, those with higher than expected mortality) were identified using an O-E ratio significantly greater than 1.0. Patients 18 years and older who underwent a noncardiac operation at US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals with a record in the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (systematic sample) and the VA Corporate Data Warehouse surgical domain (100% of surgical cases) were included. Main Outcome Measure: Thirty-day complications. Results: Most patients in both the representative sample and the universal sample were men (90.2% vs 91.2%) and White (74.7% vs 74.5%). Overall, 30-day complication rates were 7.6% and 5.3% for the sample and universal review cohorts, respectively (P < .001). Over 2145 hospital quarters of data, hospitals were identified as an outlier in 15.0% of quarters using the sample and 18.2% with universal review. Average hospital quarterly complication rates were 4.7%, 7.2%, and 7.4% for outliers identified using the sample only, universal review only, and concurrent identification in both data sources, respectively. For nonsampled cases, average hospital quarterly complication rates were 7.0% at outliers and 4.4% at nonoutliers. Among outlier hospital quarters in the sample, 54.2% were concurrently identified with universal review. For those identified with universal review, 44.6% were concurrently identified using the sample. Conclusion: In this observational study, case sampling identified less than half of hospitals with excess risk-adjusted postoperative complication rates. Future work is needed to ascertain how to best use currently collected data and whether alternative data collection strategies may be needed to better inform local QI efforts.

Long Short-Term Memory-Based Twin Support Vector Regression for Probabilistic Load Forecasting.

A probabilistic load forecast that is accurate and reliable is crucial to not only the efficient operation of power systems but also to the efficient use of energy resources. In order to estimate the uncertainties in forecasting models and nonstationary electric load data, this study proposes a probabilistic load forecasting model, namely BFEEMD-LSTM-TWSVRSOA. This model consists of a data filtering method named fast ensemble empirical model decomposition (FEEMD) method, a twin support vector regression (TWSVR) whose features are extracted by deep learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and parameters optimized by seeker optimization algorithms (SOAs). We compared the probabilistic forecasting performance of the BFEEMD-LSTM-TWSVRSOA and its point forecasting version with different machine learning and deep learning algorithms on Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014). The most representative month data of each season, totally four monthly data, collected from the one-year data in GEFCom2014, forming four datasets. Several bootstrap methods are compared in order to determine the best prediction intervals (PIs) for the proposed model. Various forecasting step sizes are also taken into consideration in order to obtain the best satisfactory point forecasting results. Experimental results on these four datasets indicate that the wild bootstrap method and 24-h step size are the best bootstrap method and forecasting step size for the proposed model. The proposed model achieves averaged 46%, 11%, 36%, and 44% better than suboptimal model on these four datasets with respect to point forecasting, and achieves averaged 53%, 48%, 46%, and 51% better than suboptimal model on these four datasets with respect to probabilistic forecasting.

Risk-Adjusted Cumulative Sum for Early Detection of Hospitals With Excess Perioperative Mortality.

Importance: National surgical quality improvement programs lack tools for early detection of quality or safety concerns, which risks patient safety because of delayed recognition of poor performance. Objective: To compare the risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) with episodic evaluation for early detection of hospitals with excess perioperative mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: National, observational, hospital-level, comparative effectiveness study of 697 566 patients. Identification of hospitals with excess, risk-adjusted, quarterly 30-day mortality using observed to expected ratios (ie, current criterion standard in the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program) was compared with the risk-adjusted CUSUM. Patients included in the study underwent a noncardiac operation at a Veterans Affairs hospital, had a record in the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (January 1, 2011, through December 31, 2016), and were aged 18 years or older. Main Outcome and Measure: Number of hospitals identified as having excess risk-adjusted 30-day mortality. Results: The cohort included 697 566 patients treated at 104 hospitals across 24 quarters. The mean (SD) age was 60.9 (13.2) years, 91.4% were male, and 8.6% were female. For each hospital, the median number of quarters detected with observed to expected ratios, at least 1 CUSUM signal, and more than 1 CUSUM signal was 2 quarters (IQR, 1-4 quarters), 8 quarters (IQR, 4-11 quarters), and 3 quarters (IQR, 1-4 quarters), respectively. During 2496 total quarters of data, outlier hospitals were identified 33.3% of the time (830 quarters) with at least 1 CUSUM signal within a quarter, 12.5% (311 quarters) with more than 1 CUSUM signal, and 11.0% (274 quarters) with observed to expected ratios at the end of the quarter. The CUSUM detection occurred a median of 49 days (IQR, 25-63 days) before observed to expected ratio reporting (1 signal, 35 days [IQR, 17-54 days]; 2 signals, 49 days [IQR, 26-61 days]; 3 signals, 58 days [IQR, 44-69 days]; ≥4 signals, 49 days [IQR, 42-69 days]; trend test, P < .001). Of 274 hospital quarters detected with observed to expected ratios, 72.6% (199) were concurrently detected by at least 1 CUSUM signal vs 42.7% (117) by more than 1 CUSUM signal. There was a dose-response relationship between the number of CUSUM signals in a quarter and the median observed to expected ratio (0 signals, 0.63; 1 signal, 1.28; 2 signals, 1.58; 3 signals, 2.08; ≥4 signals, 2.49; trend test, P < .001). Conclusions: This study found that with CUSUM, hospitals with excess perioperative mortality can be identified well in advance of standard end-of-quarter reporting, which suggests episodic evaluation strategies fail to detect out-of-control processes and place patients at risk. Continuous performance evaluation tools should be adopted in national quality improvement programs to prevent avoidable patient harm.

Survival outcomes in veterans with hepatocellular carcinoma, with and without HIV infection.

BACKGROUND: HIV infection has been associated with survival disparities among persons with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, most studies examining survival do not control for provider (e.g. type of HCC treatment given) or individual-level factors (e.g. homelessness, substance use) that could impact survival. In this study, we evaluate the effect of HIV status on survival among persons with HCC, in a comprehensive model that accounts for key individual, provider, and systems-level factors. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of persons with HIV (PWH) matched 1 : 1 to HIV-negative controls based on age and year of HCC diagnosis in the national Veterans Administration (VA) health system. The primary outcome was survival. We used Cox regression models to evaluate the effect of HIV status on risk of death. RESULTS: This cohort included 200 matched pairs diagnosed with HCC between 2009 and 2016. A total of 114 PWH (57.0%) and 115 HIV-negative patients (57.5%) received guideline-concordant therapy ( P  = 0.92). Median survival was 13.4 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.7-18.1] among PWH and 19.1 months (95% CI 14.6-24.9) for HIV-negative patients. In adjusted models, older age, homelessness, advanced Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and not receiving any HCC treatment predicted risk of death. HIV status was not associated with risk of death [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.95; 95% CI 0.75-1.20; P  = 0.65]. CONCLUSION: HIV status was not associated with worse survival among HCC patients, in a single-payer, equal access healthcare system. These results suggest that HIV infection alone should not exclude PWH from receiving standard therapy.

Case Sampling vs Universal Review for Evaluating Hospital Postoperative Mortality in US Surgical Quality Improvement Programs.

Importance: Representative surgical case sampling, rather than universal review, is used by US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and private-sector national surgical quality improvement (QI) programs to assess program performance and to inform local QI and performance improvement efforts. However, it is unclear whether case sampling is robust for identifying hospitals with safety or quality concerns. Objective: To evaluate whether the sampling strategy used by several national surgical QI programs provides hospitals with data that are representative of their overall quality and safety, as measured by 30-day mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study was a national, hospital-level analysis of data from adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who underwent noncardiac surgery at a VA hospital between January 1, 2016, and September 30, 2020. Data were obtained from the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (representative sample) and the VA Corporate Data Warehouse surgical domain (100% of surgical cases). Data analysis was performed from July 1 to December 21, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was postoperative 30-day mortality. Quarterly, risk-adjusted, 30-day mortality observed-to-expected (O-E) ratios were calculated separately for each hospital using the sample and universal review cohorts. Outlier hospitals (ie, those with higher-than-expected mortality) were identified using an O-E ratio significantly greater than 1.0. Results: In this study of data from 113 US Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals, the sample cohort comprised 502 953 surgical cases and the universal review cohort comprised 1 703 140. The majority of patients in both the representative sample and the universal sample were men (90.2% vs 91.1%) and were White (74.7% vs 74.5%). Overall, 30-day mortality was 0.8% and 0.6% for the sample and universal review cohorts, respectively (P < .001). Over 2145 quarters of data, hospitals were identified as an outlier in 11.7% of quarters with sampling and in 13.2% with universal review. Average hospital quarterly 30-day mortality rates were 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.9% for outlier hospitals identified using the sample only, universal review only, and concurrent identification in both data sources, respectively. For nonsampled cases, average hospital quarterly 30-day mortality rates were 1.0% at outlier hospitals and 0.5% at nonoutliers. Among outlier hospital quarters in the sample, 47.4% were concurrently identified with universal review. For those identified with universal review, 42.1% were concurrently identified using the sample. Conclusions and Relevance: In this national, hospital-level study, sampling strategies employed by national surgical QI programs identified less than half of hospitals with higher-than-expected perioperative mortality. These findings suggest that sampling may not adequately represent overall surgical program performance or provide stakeholders with the data necessary to inform QI efforts.