Uptake of direct-acting antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis C in Australia.

A government-funded interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment programme for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been available in Australia since March 2016. This study assessed the levels and patterns of DAA treatment uptake during March-December 2016 in Australia and described the key features in the development of the programme. All prescriptions in Australia are submitted to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme by dispensing pharmacies. Data on dispensed DAA prescriptions for a longitudinal cohort of individuals, representing a 10% random sample of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme database, were used for estimating DAA treatment uptake and subgroup analyses. The estimated number of 32 400 individuals initiated DAA treatment in 2016, equating to 14% of people with chronic HCV infection in Australia. Most commonly prescribed DAA regimens included sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (56%, n = 18 020), sofosbuvir + daclatasvir (39%, n = 12 600) and sofosbuvir + other agents (4%, n = 1220). Among individuals initiated DAA treatment, 66% (n = 21 430) were men, 43% (n = 13 870) were ≤50 years old and 36% (n = 11 670) had cirrhosis. DAA prescriptions were 62% (n = 20 080) by specialists, 19% (n = 6000) by general practitioners (GP) and 20% (n = 6320) by other physicians. Proportion of individuals prescribed DAA by GPs increased from 8% to 31% and proportion of individuals ≤50 years old increased from 28% to 61% between March and December. In conclusion, rapid treatment scale-up was observed in the first 10 months of unrestricted DAA programme in Australia. The proportion of prescriptions by GPs increased over time, important for broadened access. A trend towards younger age treatment suggested the broadening of DAA-treated population, potentially including individuals at higher risk of HCV transmission.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and survival among people with hepatitis C: An international study.

This study evaluates trends in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and survival in three settings, prior to introduction of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. HCV notifications from British Columbia (BC), Canada; New South Wales (NSW), Australia; and Scotland (1995-2011/2012/2013, respectively) were linked to HCC diagnosis data via hospital admissions (2001-2012/2013/2014, respectively) and mortality (1995-2013/2014/2015, respectively). Age-standardized HCC incidence rates were evaluated, associated factors were assessed using Cox regression, and median survival time after HCC diagnosis was calculated. Among 58 487, 84 529 and 31 924 people with HCV in BC, NSW and Scotland, 734 (1.3%), 1045 (1.2%) and 345 (1.1%) had an HCC diagnosis. Since mid-2000s, HCC diagnosis numbers increased in all jurisdictions. Age-standardized HCC incidence rates remained stable in BC and Scotland and increased in NSW. The strongest predictor of HCC diagnosis was older age [birth <1945, aHR in BC 5.74, 95% CI 4.84, 6.82; NSW 9.26, 95% CI 7.93, 10.82; Scotland 12.55, 95% CI 9.19, 17.15]. Median survival after HCC diagnosis remained stable in BC (0.8 years in 2001-2006 and 2007-2011) and NSW (0.9 years in 2001-2006 and 2007-2013) and improved in Scotland (0.7 years in 2001-2006 to 1.5 years in 2007-2014). Across the settings, HCC burden increased, individual-level risk of HCC remained stable or increased, and HCC survival remained extremely low. These findings highlight the minimal impact of HCC prevention and management strategies during the interferon-based HCV treatment era and form the basis for evaluating the impact of DAA therapy in the coming years.

Shortened therapy of eight weeks with paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir is highly effective in people with recent HCV genotype 1 infection.

Paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir with or without ribavirin for 12 weeks are approved for treatment of chronic HCV genotype 1 infection. This study assessed the efficacy of shortened duration paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir with or without ribavirin for 8 weeks among people with recent HCV infection. In this open-label single-arm trial conducted in Australia, England and New Zealand, adults with recent HCV (duration of infection <12 months) received paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir (with weight-based ribavirin for genotypes 1a and 1, no subtype) for 8 weeks. The primary endpoint was sustained virological response at 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12) in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Thirty people (median age 38 years, male 93%) commenced treatment (with ribavirin, 97%), of whom 77% (n = 23) were HIV-positive, 93% (n = 28) had genotype 1a infection and 53% (n = 16) had ever injected drugs. Median maximum ALT in the preceding 12 months was 433 IU/L (IQR 321, 1012). Acute clinical hepatitis with ALT > 10 x ULN was documented in 83% (n = 25); one participant (3%) had jaundice. At baseline, median estimated duration of infection was 30 weeks (range 11, 51), and median HCV RNA was 5.7 log10 IU/mL (range 2.7, 7.3). SVR12 was achieved in 97% (29/30; early discontinuation at week 2, n = 1; per protocol 100%, 29/29). No relapse or reinfection was observed. In conclusion, paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir (with ribavirin) for eight weeks were highly effective among HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals with recent HCV infection. These data support the use of this shortened duration direct-acting antiviral regimen in this population.

Estimating HCV disease burden-volume 4 (editorial).

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major global public health issue, with an estimated 71 million people living with HCV infection and a rising burden of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality. The advent of interferon-free, direct acting antiviral-based (DAA) therapies, with short duration (8-12 weeks), high efficacy, excellent tolerability and ease of delivery (once daily oral dosing), is one of the major advances in clinical medicine in recent decades, and provides the opportunity to address this growing global HCV burden. In May 2014, January 2015 and December 2015, three supplements were published in the Journal of Viral Hepatitis presenting data from 47 countries on the historical epidemiology of HCV, the current HCV-related morbidity and mortality and potential strategies to manage the HCV disease burden in the future. The countries included in those manuscripts were from multiple regions including North and South America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Oceania. In this supplement, data from an additional 17 countries are presented, following a similar pattern as in the previous manuscripts. These countries represent a mixture of high-, middle- and low-income countries that hail from five geographical regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East and South America. Expert advisory panels were convened in each country to identify the best data sources to use and to review the assumptions and outputs from the model. In the countries considered in the current analyses, there is a wide variance in the availability of robust data.

Ongoing incident hepatitis C virus infection among people with a history of injecting drug use in an Australian prison setting, 2005-2014: The HITS-p study.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission is high in prisons. This study investigated trends in HCV incidence and associated factors among a cohort of prisoners with a history of injecting drug use in New South Wales, Australia. Data were available from the Hepatitis C Incidence and Transmission Study-prisons (HITS-p) from 2005 to 2014. Temporal trends in HCV incidence were evaluated. Factors associated with time to HCV seroconversion among people with ongoing injecting was assessed using Cox proportional hazards. Among 320 antibody-negative participants with a history of injecting drug use (mean age 26; 72% male), 62% (n=197) reported injecting drug use during follow-up. Overall, 93 infections were observed. HCV incidence was 11.4/100 person-years in the overall population and 6.3/100 person-years among the continually imprisoned population. A stable trend in HCV incidence was observed. Among the overall population with ongoing injecting during follow-up, ≥weekly injecting drug use frequency was independently associated with time to HCV seroconversion. Among continuously imprisoned injectors with ongoing injecting during follow-up, needle/syringe sharing was independently associated with time to HCV seroconversion. This study demonstrates that prison is a high-risk environment for acquisition of HCV infection. Needle and syringe sharing was associated with HCV infection among continually imprisoned participants, irrespective of frequency of injecting or the type of drug injected. These findings highlight the need for the evaluation of improved HCV prevention strategies in prison, including needle/syringe programmes and HCV treatment.

HCV reinfection incidence among individuals treated for recent infection.

One challenge to HCV elimination through therapeutic intervention is reinfection. The aim of this analysis was to calculate the incidence of HCV reinfection among both HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals treated for recent HCV infection (estimated infection duration <18 months). Individuals with recent HCV infection who achieved an end-of-treatment response in four open-label studies between 2004 and 2015 in Australia and New Zealand were assessed for HCV reinfection, confirmed by sequencing of the Core-E2 and/or NS5B regions. Reinfection incidence was calculated using person-time of observation. Exact Poisson regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with HCV reinfection. The cohort at risk for reinfection (n=120; 83% male; median age 36 years) was composed of HIV-positive men-who-have-sex-with-men (53%) and people who inject drugs (current 49%, ever 69%). Total follow-up time at risk was 135 person-years (median 1.08 years, range 0.17, 2.53). Ten cases of HCV reinfection were identified, for an incidence of 7.4 per 100 py (95% CI 4.0, 13.8). Reinfection incidence was significantly higher among participants who reported injection drug use at end of or post-treatment, irrespective of HIV status (15.5 per 100 py, 95% CI 7.8, 31.1). In adjusted analysis, factors associated with reinfection were older age (aIRR 5.3, 95% CI 1.15, 51.5, P=.042) and injection drug use at end of or post-treatment (aIRR 7.9, 95% CI 1.6, 77.2, P=.008). High reinfection incidence following treatment for recent HCV infection in individuals with ongoing risk behaviour emphasizes the need for post-treatment surveillance, harm reduction strategies and education in at-risk populations.

Analysis of resistance-associated substitutions in acute hepatitis C virus infection by deep sequencing across six genotypes and three continents.

Several direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been approved for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, opening the door to highly effective interferon-free treatment regimens. Resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) have been reported both in treatment-naïve patients and following treatment with protease (NS3), phosphoprotein (NS5A) and polymerase (NS5B) inhibitors. The prevalence of naturally occurring RASs in untreated HCV-infected individuals has mostly been analysed in those infected with genotype 1 (GT1), in the late phase of infection, and only within limited regions of the genome. Furthermore, the geographic distribution of RASs remains poorly characterized. In this study, we used next-generation sequencing to analyse full-length HCV genomes for the prevalence of RASs in acute HCV infections identified in nine international prospective cohorts. RASs were analysed in 179 participants infected with all six major HCV genotypes (GT1-GT6), and the geographic distribution of RASs was assessed in 107 GT1a and GT3a samples. While RASs were detected at varied frequencies across the three genomic regions, and between genotypes, RASs relevant to multiple DAAs in the leading IFN-free regimens were rarely detected in combination. Low-frequency RASs (<10% of the viral population) were also shown to have a GT-specific distribution. The main RASs with geographic associations were NS3 Q80K in GT1a samples and NS5B N142T in GT3a. These data provide the backdrop for prospective surveillance of RASs during DAA treatment scale-up.

Phylogenetic analysis of full-length, early infection, hepatitis C virus genomes among people with intravenous drug use: the InC3 Study.

Cross-continental phylogenetic analysis is important to understand subtle molecular differences of currently circulating hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes. Existence of such differences can be crucial in pursuing a universal hepatitis C vaccine. We characterized molecular epidemiology of early HCV infections identified across nine cohorts [North America (n=4), Australia (n=4) and Europe (n=1)] in the International Collaborative of Incident HIV and Hepatitis C in Injecting Cohorts (InC3 ). One hundred and ninety-two full-length HCV genomes were amplified from plasma of incident infections and subjected to next generation sequencing to establish the largest cross-continental, full-length acute HCV genomic data set available to date. Genomes from the most common subtypes (1a: n=94, 2b: n=15 and 3a: n=68) were used in phylogenetic analysis. Using full genome trees, 78 sequences (44%) were found to lie within 29 phylogenetic clusters/pairs defined on the basis of molecular similarity of consensus sequences. Of these, 26 each had exclusively Australian or North American sequences indicating a strong geographical bias for molecular similarity. On further analysis of behavioural and demographic associations, binary logistic regression analysis showed that older age and non-Caucasian ethnicity were significantly associated with clustering. HCV probably evolves in micro-epidemics within geographically isolated communities.

Estimates on HCV disease burden worldwide - filling the gaps.

Hepatitis C is caused by infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and represents a major global health burden. Persistent HCV infection can lead to progressive liver disease with the development of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, possibly accounting for up to 0.5 million deaths every year. Treatment of HCV infection is undergoing a profound and radical change. As new treatments are extremely safe and effective, there are virtually no medical reasons to withhold therapy. Yet, the new therapies are expensive. As resources are limited, solid data to estimate the disease burden caused by HCV are urgently needed. Epidemiology data and disease burden analyses for 16 countries are presented. For almost all countries, the peak of HCV-related cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related death is a decade or more away. However, a surprising heterogeneity in country-specific HCV-associated disease burden exists. Also, HCV diagnosis and treatment uptake varied markedly between countries. A consistent finding was that a reduction of HCV liver-related mortality is dependent on access to therapy. Increasing efficacy of therapy alone with a constant numbers of treatments will not have a major impact on the HCV-related disease burden. The data presented here should inform public health policy and help drive advocacy for enhanced strategic investment and action. HCV kills patients, and the disease burden will continue to rise in most countries unless action is taken soon. Chronic HCV is a curable infection and a reversible liver disease. Fortunately, the tools to eliminate HCV are now available.

Effect of treatment willingness on specialist assessment and treatment uptake for hepatitis C virus infection among people who use drugs: the ETHOS study.

Among people who inject drugs (PWID) with chronic HCV, the association between HCV treatment willingness and intent, and HCV specialist assessment and treatment were evaluated. The Enhancing Treatment for Hepatitis C in Opioid Substitution Settings (ETHOS) is a prospective observational cohort. Recruitment was through six opioid substitution treatment clinics, two community health centres and one Aboriginal community controlled health organisation in Australia. Analyses were performed using logistic regression. Among 415 participants (mean age 41 years, 71% male), 67% were 'definitely willing' to receive HCV treatment and 70% reported plans to initiate therapy 12 months postenrolment. Those definitely willing to receive HCV treatment were more likely to undergo specialist assessment (64% vs 32%, P < 0.001) and initiate therapy (36% vs 9%, P < 0.001), compared to those with lower treatment willingness. Those with early HCV treatment plans were more likely to undergo specialist assessment (65% vs 27%, P < 0.001) and initiate therapy (36% vs 5%, P < 0.001), compared to those without early plans. In adjusted analyses, HCV treatment willingness independently predicted specialist assessment (aOR 3.06, 95% CI 1.90, 4.94) and treatment uptake (aOR 4.33, 95% CI 2.14, 8.76). In adjusted analysis, having early HCV treatment plans independently predicted specialist assessment (aOR 4.38, 95% CI 2.63, 7.29) and treatment uptake (aOR 9.79, 95% CI 3.70, 25.93). HCV treatment willingness was high and predicted specialist assessment and treatment. Strategies for enhanced HCV care should be developed with an initial focus on people willing to receive treatment and to increase treatment willingness among those less willing.

Factors associated with hepatitis C virus RNA levels in early chronic infection: the InC3 study.

Improved understanding of natural history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels in chronic infection provides enhanced insights into immunopathogenesis of HCV and has implications for the clinical management of chronic HCV infection. This study assessed factors associated with HCV RNA levels during early chronic infection in a population with well-defined early chronic HCV infection. Data were from an international collaboration of nine prospective cohorts studying acute HCV infection (InC(3) study). Individuals with persistent HCV and detectable HCV RNA during early chronic infection (one year [±4 months] postinfection) were included. Distribution of HCV RNA levels during early chronic infection was compared by selected host and virological factors. A total of 308 individuals were included. Median HCV RNA levels were significantly higher among males (vs females; 5.15 vs 4.74 log IU/mL; P < 0.01) and among individuals with HIV co-infection (vs no HIV; 5.89 vs 4.86; P = 0.02). In adjusted logistic regression, male sex (vs female, adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.93; 95%CI: 1.01, 3.69), interferon lambda 4 (IFNL4) rs12979860 CC genotype (vs TT/CT; AOR: 2.48; 95%CI: 1.42, 4.35), HIV co-infection (vs no HIV; AOR: 3.27; 95%CI: 1.35, 7.93) and HCV genotype G2 (vs G3; AOR: 5.40; 95%CI: 1.63, 17.84) were independently associated with high HCV RNA levels (>5.6 log IU/mL = 400 000 IU/mL). In conclusion, this study demonstrated that IFNL4 rs12979860 CC genotype, male sex, HIV co-infection and HCV genotype G2 are associated with high HCV RNA levels in early chronic infection. These factors exert their role as early as one year following infection.

Response to treatment following recently acquired hepatitis C virus infection in a multicentre collaborative cohort.

Pegylated interferon therapy is highly effective in recently acquired HCV. The optimal timing of treatment, regimen and influence of host factors remains unclear. We aimed to measure sustained virological response (SVR) during recent HCV infection and identify predictors of response. Data were from five prospective cohorts of high-risk individuals in Australia, Canada, Germany and the United States. Individuals with acute or early chronic HCV who commenced pegylated interferon therapy were included. The main outcome was SVR, and predictors were assessed using logistic regression. Among 516 with documented recent HCV infection, 237 were treated (pegylated interferon n = 161; pegylated interferon/ribavirin n = 76) (30% female, median age 35 years, 56% ever injected drugs, median duration of infection 6.2 months). Sixteen per cent (n = 38) were HIV/HCV co-infected. SVR among those with HCV mono-infection was 64% by intention to treat; SVR was 68% among HCV/HIV co-infection. Independent predictors of SVR in HCV mono-infection were duration of HCV infection (the odds of SVR declined by 8% per month of infection, aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99, P = 0.033), IFNL4 genotype (adjusted OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.13-4.56, P = 0.021), baseline HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (aOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.03-4.12, P = 0.041) and age ≥40 years (vs <30: aOR 2.92, 95% CI 1.31-6.49, P = 0.009), with no difference by drug regimen, HCV genotype, symptomatic infection or gender. The effect of infection duration on odds of SVR was greater among genotype-1 infection. Interferon-based HCV treatment is highly effective in recent HCV infection. Duration of infection, IFNL4 genotype and baseline HCV RNA levels can predict virological response and may inform clinical decision-making.

Phylogenetic clustering of hepatitis C virus among people who inject drugs in Vancouver, Canada.

UNLABELLED: Little is known about factors associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). Phylogenetic clustering and associated factors were evaluated among PWID in Vancouver, Canada. Data were derived from the Vancouver Injection Drug Users Study. Participants who were HCV antibody-positive at enrolment and those with HCV antibody seroconversion during follow-up (1996 to 2012) were tested for HCV RNA and sequenced (Core-E2 region). Phylogenetic trees were inferred using maximum likelihood analysis and clusters were identified using ClusterPicker (90% bootstrap threshold, 0.05 genetic distance threshold). Factors associated with clustering were assessed using logistic regression. Among 655 eligible participants, HCV genotype prevalence was: G1a: 48% (n=313), G1b: 6% (n=41), G2a: 3% (n=20), G2b: 7% (n=46), G3a: 33% (n=213), G4a: <1% (n=4), G6a: 1% (n=8), G6e: <1% (n=1), and unclassifiable: 1% (n=9). The mean age was 36 years, 162 (25%) were female, and 164 (25%) were HIV+. Among 501 participants with HCV G1a and G3a, 31% (n=156) were in a pair/cluster. Factors independently associated with phylogenetic clustering included: age <40 (versus age≥40, adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03, 2.63), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (AOR=1.82; 95% CI 1.18, 2.81), HCV seroconversion (AOR=3.05; 95% CI 1.40, 6.66), and recent syringe borrowing (AOR 1.59; 95% CI 1.07, 2.36). CONCLUSION: In this sample of PWID, one-third demonstrated phylogenetic clustering. Factors independently associated with phylogenetic clustering included younger age, recent HCV seroconversion, prevalent HIV infection, and recent syringe borrowing. Strategies to enhance the delivery of prevention and/or treatment strategies to those with HIV and recent HCV seroconversion should be explored, given an increased likelihood of HCV transmission in these subpopulations.

Hepatitis C disease burden and strategies to manage the burden (Guest Editors Mark Thursz, Gregory Dore and John Ward).

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection leads to liver fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The recent Global Burden of Disease project estimated that in 2010 among 170 million people living with chronic HCV, an estimated 483,100 people died from HCV-related liver failure or HCC. The last two decades has seen progressive improvements in treatment of HCV infection with the most recent therapies offering simple, tolerable, short-duration therapy with extremely high efficacy. The development of public health strategies addressing emerging epidemics requires sound epidemiological data. This study covers epidemiological data collection, detailed expert opinion input and country-specific mathematical modelling of the HCV epidemic and potential impact of improved HCV treatment strategies in 16 countries. The analysis demonstrates that the HCV epidemics vary considerably in terms of age distribution of the infected population across countries. In addition, the burden of advanced liver disease varies widely. This burden is dependent upon factors including chronic HCV prevalence, age distribution (and duration of infection) of those infected, prevalence of cofactors for disease progression (particularly heavy alcohol intake) and uptake and success of therapeutic intervention. Introduction of new therapies with assumed sustained virological response (SVR) rate of >90% will have a modest impact on projected advanced liver disease burden. A combination of enhanced treatment efficacy and improved treatment uptake will have a greater impact on population-level disease burden. However public health advocacy and both public and private sector investment in the HCV response are required to demonstrate significant reduction in HCV disease burden.

Barriers and facilitators for assessment and treatment of hepatitis C virus infection in the opioid substitution treatment setting: insights from the ETHOS study.

Provision of hepatitis C virus (HCV) assessment and treatment via opioid substitution treatment (OST) clinics has been posed as an effective means of engaging populations with high HCV prevalence. This study explores OST client and health professional reports concerning barriers and facilitators affecting the delivery and uptake of HCV care and treatment within OST settings. In-depth interviews were conducted with 57 clients, 16 staff from four NSW clinics participating in the Australian ETHOS study and three peer workers. Client participants included those who had not had HCV assessment; those who had HCV assessment only; and those who were awaiting or undertaking HCV treatment. A clear difference in decisions about HCV treatment emerged between participant groups. For those who have not been assessed, barriers to engaging with HCV care included the perception that they were physically well, were not experiencing HCV symptoms, had other life priorities and were concerned about the side effects and tolerability of treatment. Those who had engaged with care expressed motivations stemming from seeing friends becoming unwell, wanting to live longer and hearing positive stories of treatment. For those interested in HCV treatment, issues related to both provider and setting were important, such as presence of an engaged clinician, an accessible treatment pathway and availability of support. In this integrated care model, some barriers to HCV care and treatment (particularly those relating to health provider and the system) are minimized. In this setting, HCV treatment remained an unattractive option for a significant number of clients. Providing ways for those without HCV symptoms to be assessed for liver damage may be important to open up alternative conversations about HCV care. Further, the importance of a changing discourse of treatment is apparent from these data and could be enhanced by peer communication that provides information about successful treatment experiences.

Lower life expectancy among people with an HCV notification: a population-based linkage study.

Among people with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, liver disease-related deaths have risen over the last 20 years. Life expectancy has not been estimated in this population. HCV notifications (mandatory notification of anti-HCV-positive serology since 1991) reported to the New South Wales Health Department from 1992 to 2006 were linked to cause of death data. Abridged life tables were constructed from age-specific mortality rates. Life expectancy from ages 18-70 years for non-drug-related mortality causes was estimated using competing risk methods and compared to the general population of Australia. The cohort comprised 81 644 individuals with an HCV notification, with median follow-up of 7.6 years. Median age at notification was 34 years [interquartile range (IQR) 28-42] and 63% were male. Between 1992 and 2006, 4607 deaths occurred. Median age at liver- and drug-related death among males was 51 (IQR 45-66) and 36 (IQR 31-42) years, respectively, and among females was 63 (IQR 49-74) and 36 (IQR 30-41) years, respectively. In each year of follow-up before 2000, 15-21% of deaths were liver- and 30-39% were drug-related. After 2000, liver-related deaths increased to 20-26% of deaths in each year and drug-related deaths decreased to 13-19%. Excluding drug-related causes of death, life expectancy was lowered by an average of 4.2 (SD ± 1.0) and 5.4 (SD ± 0.7) years for males and females, respectively. Among people with an HCV notification, an increasing proportion of deaths are liver-related. Following removal of drug-related mortality, life expectancy in this population remained considerably lower, compared with the general population.

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in selected countries.

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading indicator for liver disease. New treatment options are becoming available, and there is a need to characterize the epidemiology and disease burden of HCV. Data for prevalence, viremia, genotype, diagnosis and treatment were obtained through literature searches and expert consensus for 16 countries. For some countries, data from centralized registries were used to estimate diagnosis and treatment rates. Data for the number of liver transplants and the proportion attributable to HCV were obtained from centralized databases. Viremic prevalence estimates varied widely between countries, ranging from 0.3% in Austria, England and Germany to 8.5% in Egypt. The largest viremic populations were in Egypt, with 6,358,000 cases in 2008 and Brazil with 2,106,000 cases in 2007. The age distribution of cases differed between countries. In most countries, prevalence rates were higher among males, reflecting higher rates of injection drug use. Diagnosis, treatment and transplant levels also differed considerably between countries. Reliable estimates characterizing HCV-infected populations are critical for addressing HCV-related morbidity and mortality. There is a need to quantify the burden of chronic HCV infection at the national level.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden.

The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm.

The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.

CCR5-Δ32 genotype does not improve predictive value of IL28B polymorphisms for treatment response in chronic HCV infection.

IL28B polymorphisms strongly predict spontaneous and treatment-induced clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. A recent study proposed a 32-base pair deletion in the CC-chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) gene (CCR5-Δ32) interacting with the IL28B polymorphisms to influence spontaneous HCV clearance. The aim of this study was to clarify the role of CCR5-Δ32 in treatment-induced clearance of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). A cross-sectional cohort of 813 Caucasian patients with CHC genotype 1 (365 responders and 448 non-responders) who had received standard of care dual therapy with interferon (IFN)-α and ribavirin (RBV) was genotyped for the CCR5-Δ32 and IL28B polymorphisms to examine their interaction with respect to treatment response. CCR5-Δ32 did not influence treatment-induced recovery to IFN-α/RBV in CHC, and did not improve prediction of sustained virological response in the context of the IL28B polymorphisms in a multivariate model. CCR5-Δ32 homozygotes were significantly more frequent in those with CHC than healthy controls in the European cohorts (2.9% vs 0.4%, P<0.0001), but not in Australians of European ancestry. In conclusion, CCR5-Δ32 does not influence treatment response in the context of IL28B polymorphisms. Although CCR5-Δ32 may affect viral clearance within closely controlled geographical and genetic environments, we found no effect in larger cohorts treated with dual therapy.