Trends in SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values from nucleic acid testing predict the trajectory of COVID-19 waves.

Forecasting COVID-19 waves helps with public health planning and resource allocation. Cycle threshold (Ct) values obtained from positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) results offer limited value for individual patient management, but real-time analysis of temporal trends of aggregated Ct values may provide helpful information to predict the trajectories of COVID-19 waves in the community. Ct value trends on 59,609 SARS-CoV-2 NAAT-positive results from 574,403 tests using a single testing assay system, between September 2021 and January 2023, were examined to monitor the trend of the proportion of positive NAAT with lower Ct values (≤28) in relation to changing COVID-19 case numbers over time. We applied regression with autoregressive integrated moving average errors modelling approach to study the relation between Ct values and case counts. We also developed an insight product to monitor the temporal trends with Ct values obtained from SARS-CoV-2 NAAT-positive results. In this study, the proportion of lower Ct values preceded by a range of 7-32 days the rising population COVID-19 testing rate reflecting onset of a COVID-19 wave. Monitoring population Ct values may assist in predicting increased disease activity.

Low HIV drug resistance prevalence among recently diagnosed HIV-positive men who have sex with men in a setting of high PrEP use.

INTRODUCTION: New South Wales (NSW) has one of the world's highest uptake rates of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). This uptake has been credited with sharp declines in HIV transmission, particularly among Australian-born gay and bisexual men. Concerns have been raised around the potential for the emergence of tenofovir (TFV) and XTC (lamivudine/emtricitabine) resistance in settings of high PrEP use. Such an emergence could also increase treatment failure and associated clinical outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Despite low levels of nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance relating to PrEP use in clinical settings, there are few published studies describing the prevalence of NRTI resistance among people newly diagnosed with HIV in a setting of high PrEP use. METHODS: Using HIV antiretroviral drug resistance data linked to NSW HIV notifications records of people diagnosed from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2021 and with HIV attributed to male-to-male sex, we described trends in TFV and XTC resistance. Resistance was identified using the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance genotypic resistance interpretation system. To focus on transmitted drug resistance, resistance prevalence estimates were generated using sequences taken less than 3 months post-HIV diagnosis. These estimates were stratified by timing of sequencing relative to the date of diagnosis, year of sequencing, birthplace, likely place of HIV acquisition, and stage of HIV at diagnosis. RESULTS: Among 1119 diagnoses linked to HIV genomes sequenced less than 3 months following diagnosis, overall XTC resistance prevalence was 1.3%. Between 2015 and 2021, XTC resistance fluctuated between 0.5% to 2.9% and was 1.0% in 2021. No TFV resistance was found over the study period in any of the sequences analysed. Higher XTC resistance prevalence was observed among people with newly acquired HIV (evidence of HIV acquisition in the 12 months prior to diagnosis; 2.9%, p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: In this Australian setting, TFV and XTC resistance prevalence in new HIV diagnoses remained low. Our findings offer further evidence for the safe scale-up of PrEP in high-income settings, without jeopardizing the treatment of those living with HIV.

Seroprevalence of Japanese encephalitis virus-specific antibodies in Australia following novel epidemic spread: protocol for a national cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes encephalitis and other morbidity in Southeast Asia. Since February 2022, geographically dispersed JEV human, animal and vector detections occurred on the Australian mainland for the first time. This study will determine the prevalence of JEV-specific antibodies in human blood with a focus on populations at high risk of JEV exposure and determine risk factors associated with JEV seropositivity by location, age, occupation and other factors. METHOD: Samples are collected using two approaches: from routine blood donors (4153 samples), and active collections targeting high-risk populations (convenience sampling). Consent-based sampling for the latter includes a participant questionnaire on demographic, vaccination and exposure data. Samples are tested for JEV-specific total antibody using a defined epitope-blocking ELISA, and total antibody to Australian endemic flaviviruses Murray Valley encephalitis and Kunjin viruses. ANALYSIS: Two analytic approaches will occur: descriptive estimates of seroprevalence and multivariable logistic regression using Bayesian hierarchical models. Descriptive analyses will include unadjusted analysis of raw data with exclusions for JEV-endemic country of birth, travel to JEV-endemic countries, prior JEV-vaccination, and sex-standardised and age-standardised analyses. Multivariable logistic regression will determine which risk factors are associated with JEV seropositivity likely due to recent transmission within Australia and the relative contribution of each factor when accounting for effects within the model. ETHICS: National Mutual Acceptance ethical approval was obtained from the Sydney Children's Hospitals Network Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC). Local approvals were sought in each jurisdiction. Ethical approval was also obtained from the Australian Red Cross Lifeblood HREC. DISSEMINATION: Findings will be communicated to participants and their communities, and human and animal health stakeholders and policy-makers iteratively and after final analyses. Understanding human infection rates will inform procurement and targeted allocation of limited JEV vaccine, and public health strategies and communication campaigns, to at-risk populations.

Acute exercise decreases vaccine reactions following influenza vaccination among older adults.

Although valuable and effective in decreasing disease burden, influenza vaccination has low rates of efficacy, especially in those at most risk. Studies have shown that acute exercise can improve vaccine responses, most consistently with weaker antigens. Here we examined the effect of resistance exercise on the acute and longer-term responses to influenza vaccination among healthy older adults. Forty-six participants (47.8% male, mean 73.4 ±â€¯6.6 years) were randomised to perform one 45-min moderate-intensity resistance exercise session or sit quietly prior to the receipt of influenza vaccination. Acute exercise reduced vaccine reactions but had no effect on either antibody responses or development of influenza-like symptoms during six months of follow-up. Psychosocial and behavioural characteristics were examined for potential associations with the responses to vaccination. Participants (n = 36) vaccinated in the previous year had higher baseline antibody titres but not follow-up titres nor more frequent experience of influenza-like symptoms over 6 months compared to those unvaccinated in the previous year. These findings provide further support for the ability of acute exercise to reduce vaccine reactions and suggest risk factors for vaccine responses for future exploration.