BOADICEA breast cancer risk prediction model: updates to cancer incidences, tumour pathology and web interface.

BACKGROUND: The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) is a risk prediction model that is used to compute probabilities of carrying mutations in the high-risk breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2, and to estimate the future risks of developing breast or ovarian cancer. In this paper, we describe updates to the BOADICEA model that extend its capabilities, make it easier to use in a clinical setting and yield more accurate predictions. METHODS: We describe: (1) updates to the statistical model to include cancer incidences from multiple populations; (2) updates to the distributions of tumour pathology characteristics using new data on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and women with breast cancer from the general population; (3) improvements to the computational efficiency of the algorithm so that risk calculations now run substantially faster; and (4) updates to the model's web interface to accommodate these new features and to make it easier to use in a clinical setting. RESULTS: We present results derived using the updated model, and demonstrate that the changes have a significant impact on risk predictions. CONCLUSION: All updates have been implemented in a new version of the BOADICEA web interface that is now available for general use: http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/.

Allele losses in the region 17q12-21 in familial breast and ovarian cancer involve the wild-type chromosome.

A predisposing gene for breast and ovarian cancer has recently been mapped to chromosome 17q12-21. If this gene is a tumour suppressor gene, allele losses would be expected in the tumours of affected family members and the losses should affect the wild-type chromosome, reflecting the need for inactivation of the wild-type allele at the predisposing locus. In four multiple case breast-ovarian cancer families, we have found that in each of nine tumours which showed allele losses, the losses were from the wild-type chromosome. This suggests that the putative 'breast-ovarian' cancer gene is indeed a tumour suppressor gene.

Variation of risks of breast and ovarian cancer associated with different germline mutations of the BRCA2 gene.

The breast cancer susceptibility gene BRCA2 on chromosome 13q12-13 has recently been identified. Germline mutations of BRCA2 are predicted to account for approximately 35% of families with multiple case, early onset female breast cancer, and they are also associated with an increased risk of male breast cancer, ovarian cancer, prostate cancer and pancreatic cancer. Germline mutations of a second cancer susceptibility gene BRCA1 (ref. 5), are associated with a strong predisposition to ovarian cancer as well as female breast cancer. Recent studies have suggested that the phenotype in BRCA1 families with respect to the ratio of breast to ovarian cancer varies with the location of the BRCA1 mutation. To determine whether germline mutations in BRCA2 are associated with a similar variation in phenotypic risk, we have analysed the distribution of mutations in 25 families with multiple cases of breast and/or ovarian cancer ascertained in the United Kingdom and Eire. These mutations all lead to premature truncation of BRCA2 as a result of frameshift deletions/insertions or nonsense mutations. Analysis of the mutation distribution along the length of the gene indicates a significant genotype-phenotype correlation. Truncating mutations in families with the highest risk of ovarian cancer relative to breast cancer are clustered in a region of approximately 3.3 kb in exon 11 (P = 0.0004). Published data on mutations in 45 other BRCA2-linked families provide support for this correlation.

Familial cylindromatosis (turban tumour syndrome) gene localised to chromosome 16q12-q13: evidence for its role as a tumour suppressor gene.

The human skin is a complex organ composed of the surface epidermis, the subjacent dermis (in which blood vessels, lymphatics and nerves are located) and the skin appendages. The latter include hair follicles, sebaceous glands (which secrete lipids that may serve as a permeability barrier, emollient or antimicrobial agent), apocrine glands (which secrete scents) and eccrine glands (which produce sweat for temperature control). Hereditary cylindromatosis (MIM 123850) is a rare autosomal dominant disease characterised by the development of multiple neoplasms originating from the skin appendages. These neoplasms have been termed cylindromas due to their characteristic microscopic architecture and are believed to exhibit apocrine or eccrine differentiation. We have carried out a genome search using two families with this disease, which has provided strong evidence for linkage of cylindromatosis to loci on chromosome 16q12-q13. Using markers close to the cylindromatosis gene, consistent loss of the wild-type allele was observed in 19 tumours from four individuals in the two families, indicating that the gene is likely to be a tumour suppressor gene.

A germline mutation in the androgen receptor gene in two brothers with breast cancer and Reifenstein syndrome.

Breast cancer in men is rare--among the risk factors that have been identified are a family history of breast cancer and evidence of androgen insufficiency. We report a family in which two brothers who both developed breast cancer had clinical and endocrinological evidence of androgen resistance. Sequence analysis revealed a mutation in the androgen receptor gene on the X chromosome, within the region encoding the DNA binding domain. This is the first report of a germline mutation in a member of the steroid/thyroid hormone receptor superfamily associated with the development of cancer.

A common variant in BRCA2 is associated with both breast cancer risk and prenatal viability.

Inherited mutations in the gene BRCA2 predispose carriers to early onset breast cancer, but such mutations account for fewer than 2% of all cases in East Anglia. It is likely that low penetrance alleles explain the greater part of inherited susceptibility to breast cancer; polymorphic variants in strongly predisposing genes, such as BRCA2, are candidates for this role. BRCA2 is thought to be involved in DNA double strand break-repair. Few mice in which Brca2 is truncated survive to birth; of those that do, most are male, smaller than their normal littermates and have high cancer incidence. Here we show that a common human polymorphism (N372H) in exon 10 of BRCA2 confers an increased risk of breast cancer: the HH homozygotes have a 1.31-fold (95% CI, 1.07-1.61) greater risk than the NN group. Moreover, in normal female controls of all ages there is a significant deficiency of homozygotes compared with that expected from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, whereas in males there is an excess of homozygotes: the HH group has an estimated fitness of 0.82 in females and 1.38 in males. Therefore, this variant of BRCA2 appears also to affect fetal survival in a sex-dependent manner.

Germline mutations of the BRCA1 gene in breast and ovarian cancer families provide evidence for a genotype-phenotype correlation.

Mutations in the BRCA1 gene, discovered in 1994, are associated with an 80-90% lifetime risk of breast cancer. We have analysed 60 families with a history of breast and/or ovarian cancer for germline mutations in BRCA1. Twenty-two different mutations were detected in 32 families (53%), of which 14 are previously unreported. We observed a significant correlation between the location of the mutation in the gene and the ratio of breast to ovarian cancer incidence within each family. Our data suggest a transition in risk such that mutations in the 3' third of the gene are associated with a lower proportion of ovarian cancer. Haplotype analysis supports previous data which suggest some BRCA1 mutation carriers have common ancestors; however, we have found at least two examples where recurrent mutations appear to have arisen independently.

Ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 carriers is modified by the HRAS1 variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) locus.

Women who carry a mutation in the BRCA1 gene (on chromosome 17q21), have an 80% risk of breast cancer and a 40% risk of ovarian cancer by the age of 70 (ref. 1). The variable penetrance of BRCA1 suggests that other genetic and non-genetic factors play a role in tumourigenesis in these individuals. The HRAS1 variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) polymorphism, located 1 kilobase (kb) downstream of the HRAS1 proto-oncogene (chromosome 11p15.5) is one possible genetic modifier of cancer penetrance. Individuals who have rare alleles of the VNTR have an increased risk of certain types of cancers, including breast cancer (2-4). To investigate whether the presence of rare HRAS1 alleles increases susceptibility to hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, we have typed a panel of 307 female BRCA1 carriers at this locus using a PCR-based technique. The risk for ovarian cancer was 2.11 times greater for BRCA1 carriers harbouring one or two rare HRAS1 alleles, compared to carriers with only common alleles (P = 0.015). The magnitude of the relative risk associated with a rare HRAS1 allele was not altered by adjusting for the other known risk factors for hereditary ovarian cancer (5). Susceptibility to breast cancer did not appear to be affected by the presence of rare HRAS1 alleles. This study is the first to show the effect of a modifying gene on the penetrance of an inherited cancer syndrome.

Localization of the gene for Cowden disease to chromosome 10q22-23.

Cowden disease (CD) (MIM 158350), or multiple hamartoma syndrome, is a rare autosomal dominant familial cancer syndrome with a high risk of breast cancer. Its clinical features include a wide array of abnormalities but the main characteristics are hamartomas of the skin, breast, thyroid, oral mucosa and intestinal epithelium. The pathognomonic hamartomatous features of CD include multiple smooth facial papules, acral keratosis and multiple oral papillomas. The pathological hallmark of the facial papules are multiple trichilemmomas. Expression of the disease is variable and penetrance of the dermatological lesions is assumed to be virtually complete by the age of twenty. Central nervous system manifestations of CD were emphasized only recently and include megalencephaly, epilepsy and dysplastic gangliocytomas of the cerebellum (Lhermitte-Duclos disease, LDD). Early diagnosis is important since female patients with CD are at risk of developing breast cancer. Other lesions include benign and malignant disease of the thyroid, intestinal polyps and genitourinary abnormalities. To localize the gene for CD, an autosomal genome scan was performed. A total of 12 families were examined, resulting in a maximum lod score of 8.92 at theta = 0.02 with the marker D10S573 located on chromosome 10q22-23.

Localization to Xq27 of a susceptibility gene for testicular germ-cell tumours.

Testicular germ-cell tumours (TGCT) affect 1 in 500 men and are the most common cancer in males aged 15-40 in Western European populations. The incidence of TGCT has risen dramatically over the last century. Known risk factors for TGCT include a history of undescended testis (UDT), testicular dysgenesis, infertility, previously diagnosed TGCT (ref. 7) and a family history of the disease. Brothers of men with TGCT have an 8-10-fold risk of developing TGCT (refs 8,9), whereas the relative risk to fathers and sons is fourfold (ref. 9). This familial relative risk is much higher than that for most other types of cancer. We have collected samples from 134 families with two or more cases of TGCT, 87 of which are affected sibpairs. A genome-wide linkage search yielded a heterogeneity lod (hlod) score of 2.01 on chromosome Xq27 using all families compatible with X inheritance. We obtained a hlod score of 4.7 from families with at least one bilateral case, corresponding to a genome-wide significance level of P=0.034. The proportion of families with UDT linked to this locus was 73% compared with 26% of families without UDT (P=0.03). Our results provide evidence for a TGCT susceptibility gene on chromosome Xq27 that may also predispose to UDT.