Effects of extreme events on land-use-related decisions of farmers in Eastern Austria: the role of learning.

European farm households will face increasingly challenging conditions in the coming decades due to climate change, as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events rise. This study assesses the complex interrelations between external framework conditions such as climate change or adjustments in the agricultural price and subsidy schemes with farmers' decision-making. As social aspects remain understudied drivers for agricultural decisions, we also consider value-based characteristics of farmers as internal factors relevant for decision-making. We integrate individual learning as response to extreme weather events into an agent-based model that simulates farmers' decision-making. We applied the model to a region in Eastern Austria that already experiences water scarcity and increasing drought risk from climate change and simulated three future scenarios to compare the effects of changes in socio-economic and climatic conditions. In a cross-comparison, we then investigated how farmers can navigate these changes through individual adaptation. The agricultural trajectories project a decline of active farms between -27 and -37% accompanied by a reduction of agricultural area between -20 and -30% until 2053. The results show that regardless of the scenario conditions, adaptation through learning moderates the decline in the number of active farms and farmland compared to scenarios without adaptive learning. However, adaptation increases the workload of farmers. This highlights the need for labor support for farms. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00890-z.

The Effect of Collaborative Reviews of Electronic Patient-Reported Outcomes on the Congruence of Patient- and Clinician-Reported Toxicity in Cancer Patients Receiving Systemic Therapy: Prospective, Multicenter, Observational Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Electronic patient-reported outcomes (ePRO) are a relatively novel form of data and have the potential to improve clinical practice for cancer patients. In this prospective, multicenter, observational clinical trial, efforts were made to demonstrate the reliability of patient-reported symptoms. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of this study was to assess the level of agreement κ between symptom ratings by physicians and patients via a shared review process in order to determine the future reliability and utility of self-reported electronic symptom monitoring. METHODS: Patients receiving systemic therapy in a (neo-)adjuvant or noncurative intention setting captured ePRO for 52 symptoms over an observational period of 90 days. At 3-week intervals, randomly selected symptoms were reviewed between the patient and physician for congruency on severity of the grading of adverse events according to the Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events (CTCAE). The patient-physician agreement for the symptom review was assessed via Cohen kappa (κ), through which the interrater reliability was calculated. Chi-square tests were used to determine whether the patient-reported outcome was different among symptoms, types of cancer, demographics, and physicians' experience. RESULTS: Among the 181 patients (158 women and 23 men; median age 54.4 years), there was a fair scoring agreement (κ=0.24; 95% CI 0.16-0.33) for symptoms that were entered 2 to 4 weeks before the intended review (first rating) and a moderate agreement (κ=0.41; 95% CI 0.34-0.48) for symptoms that were entered within 1 week of the intended review (second rating). However, the level of agreement increased from moderate (first rating, κ=0.43) to substantial (second rating, κ=0.68) for common symptoms of pain, fever, diarrhea, obstipation, nausea, vomiting, and stomatitis. Similar congruency levels of ratings were found for the most frequently entered symptoms (first rating: κ=0.42; second rating: κ=0.65). The symptom with the lowest agreement was hair loss (κ=-0.05). With regard to the latency of symptom entry into the review, hardly any difference was demonstrated between symptoms that were entered from days 1 to 3 and from days 4 to 7 before the intended review (κ=0.40 vs κ=0.39, respectively). In contrast, for symptoms that were entered 15 to 21 days before the intended review, no congruency was demonstrated (κ=-0.15). Congruency levels seemed to be unrelated to the type of cancer, demographics, and physicians' review experience. CONCLUSIONS: The shared monitoring and review of symptoms between patients and clinicians has the potential to improve the understanding of patient self-reporting. Our data indicate that the integration of ePRO into oncological clinical research and continuous clinical practice provides reliable information for self-empowerment and the timely intervention of symptoms. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03578731; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03578731.

Agroforestry trade-offs between biomass provision and aboveground carbon sequestration in the alpine Eisenwurzen region, Austria.

Mountain agroecosystems deliver essential ecosystem services to society but are prone to climate change as well as socio-economic pressures, making multi-functional land systems increasingly central to sustainable mountain land use policy. Agroforestry, the combination of woody vegetation with crops and/or livestock, is expected to simultaneously increase provisioning and regulating ecosystem services, but knowledge gaps concerning trade-offs exist especially in temperate industrialized and alpine regions. Here, we quantify the aboveground carbon (C) dynamics of a hypothetical agroforestry implementation in the Austrian long-term socio-ecological research region Eisenwurzen from 2020 to 2050. We develop three land use scenarios to differentiate conventional agriculture from an immediate and a gradual agroforestry implementation, integrate data from three distinct models (Yield-SAFE, SECLAND, MIAMI), and advance the socio-ecological indicator framework Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) to assess trade-offs between biomass provision and carbon sequestration. Results indicate that agroforestry strongly decreases HANPP because of a reduction in biomass harvest by up to - 47% and a simultaneous increase in actual net primary production by up to 31%, with a large amount of carbon sequestered in perennial biomass by up to 3.4 t C ha-1 yr-1. This shows that a hypothetical transition to agroforestry in the Eisenwurzen relieves the agroecosystem from human-induced pressure but results in significant trade-offs between biomass provision and carbon sequestration. We thus conclude that while harvest losses inhibit large-scale implementation in intensively used agricultural regions, agroforestry constitutes a valuable addition to sustainable land use policy, in particular when affecting extensive pastures and meadows in alpine landscapes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01794-y.

A socio-ecological model for predicting impacts of land-use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps.

Climate and land-use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent-based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine-grained land-use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land-use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio-economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land-use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land-use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land-use changes because alternative future socio-economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land-use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land-use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi-natural habitat. We conclude that agent-based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.

Time Matters: The Carbon Footprint of Everyday Activities in Austria.

Mitigating climate change to achieve the goal of staying below 2 °C of warming requires urgent reductions of emissions. Demand-side measures mostly focus on the footprints of consumption. Analysing time use can add to understand the carbon implications of everyday life and the potentials and limitations for decarbonising consumption better. We investigate the carbon footprints of everyday activities in Austria. We linked data from the Austrian Time-use Survey and the Austrian Household Budget Survey with the Eora-MRIO for 2009-2010 in order to estimate the household carbon footprints of all time-use activities. We introduce a functional time-use perspective differentiating personal, committed, contracted and free time to investigate the average carbon intensity of activities per hour, for an average day and for the average woman and man. We find that personal time is relatively low-carbon, while household as well as leisure activities show large variation in terms of CO2e footprint/h. The traditional gendered division of labour shapes the time-use patterns of women and men, with implications for their carbon footprints. Further research analysing differences in household size, income, location and availability of infrastructure in their relation to time use is crucial to be able to assess possible pathways towards low carbon everyday life.

Socio-ecological trajectories in a rural Austrian region from 1961 to 2011: comparing the theories of Malthus and Boserup via systemic-dynamic modelling.

This paper investigates to what extent the theories of Thomas Robert Malthus and Ester Boserup are still useful to analyse population and land-use trajectories in an industrial society at a regional scale. Following a model-based approach toward long-term socio-ecological research, we built two system dynamic models, each representing one theory, and calculated socio-ecological trajectories from 1961 to 2011 for a study region located within the Eisenwurzen region in Austria. Comparing the model trajectories with empirical data reveals opposing results for the fit of the dynamics of 'population and technology' compared to 'land use and technology'. Technology strongly influenced population development, whereas its impact on land-use intensity faded over time. Although these theories are usually seen as opposing, both models identify population development as a main driver for land-use changes, mainly population decreases that contributed to farmland abandonment. We find out-migration to be essential when applying the investigated theories to contemporary societies.