Cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in 400 000 primary care patients in New Zealand: a derivation and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Most cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in use today were derived from cohorts established last century and with participants at higher risk but less socioeconomically and ethnically diverse than patients they are now applied to. We recruited a nationally representative cohort in New Zealand to develop equations relevant to patients in contemporary primary care and compared the performance of these new equations to equations that are recommended in the USA. METHODS: The PREDICT study automatically recruits participants in routine primary care when general practitioners in New Zealand use PREDICT software to assess their patients' risk profiles for cardiovascular disease, which are prospectively linked to national ICD-coded hospitalisation and mortality databases. The study population included male and female patients in primary care who had no prior cardiovascular disease, renal disease, or congestive heart failure. New equations predicting total cardiovascular disease risk were developed using Cox regression models, which included clinical predictors plus an area-based deprivation index and self-identified ethnicity. Calibration and discrimination performance of the equations were assessed and compared with 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs). The additional predictors included in new PREDICT equations were also appended to the PCEs to determine whether they were independent predictors in the equations from the USA. FINDINGS: Outcome events were derived for 401 752 people aged 30-74 years at the time of their first PREDICT risk assessment between Aug 27, 2002, and Oct 12, 2015, representing about 90% of the eligible population. The mean follow-up was 4·2 years, and a third of participants were followed for 5 years or more. 15 386 (4%) people had cardiovascular disease events (1507 [10%] were fatal, and 8549 [56%] met the PCEs definition of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease) during 1 685 521 person-years follow-up. The median 5-year risk of total cardiovascular disease events predicted by the new equations was 2·3% in women and 3·2% in men. Multivariable adjusted risk increased by about 10% per quintile of socioeconomic deprivation. Maori, Pacific, and Indian patients were at 13-48% higher risk of cardiovascular disease than Europeans, and Chinese or other Asians were at 25-33% lower risk of cardiovascular disease than Europeans. The PCEs overestimated of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease by about 40% in men and by 60% in women, and the additional predictors in the new equations were also independent predictors in the PCEs. The new equations were significantly better than PCEs on all performance metrics. INTERPRETATION: We constructed a large prospective cohort study representing typical patients in primary care in New Zealand who were recommended for cardiovascular disease risk assessment. Most patients are now at low risk of cardiovascular disease, which explains why the PCEs based mainly on old cohorts substantially overestimate risk. Although the PCEs and many other equations will need to be recalibrated to mitigate overtreatment of the healthy majority, they also need new predictors that include measures of socioeconomic deprivation and multiple ethnicities to identify vulnerable high-risk subpopulations that might otherwise be undertreated. FUNDING: Health Research Council of New Zealand, Heart Foundation of New Zealand, and Healthier Lives National Science Challenge.

Zika Virus and the Rio Olympic Games.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of Zika virus on preparation and management of the New Zealand (NZ) Olympic team. DESIGN: Descriptive manuscript. SETTING: New Zealand Olympic Health team preparation and management during the Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games, 2016. PATIENTS (OR PARTICIPANTS): New Zealand Olympic Team members. INTERVENTIONS (OR ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS): This manuscript describes the approaches used by the NZ Olympic Health team to the minimization of risk from Zika virus. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Although descriptive of approach forms most of the article, the results of Zika virus serology are presented. RESULTS: The NZ Olympic Health team took a proactive approach to risk mitigation, including extensive education, clothing changes, mosquito spray, mosquito nets, and voluntary postexposure testing. No positive serology was observed in those tested. CONCLUSIONS: The outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil, the associated complication of microcephaly, and the evolving understanding of virus transmission created significant uncertainty for NZ Olympic team members. The proactive approach taken by the health team to the mitigation of risk, combined with the anticipated low risk of arbovirus transmission over the period of the games, resulted in enhanced confidence from team members and no reports of positive serology.

Sudden cardiac death: mandatory exclusion of athletes at risk is a step too far.

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young athletes is a distressing event and it is not surprising that some physicians working with sports people are proposing that preventive action should be taken. There is a push for a system similar to that established in some countries, which involves screening and mandatory exclusion of those at risk. We argue that while screening can provide useful information to at-risk athletes making decisions about their future athletic careers, mandatory exclusion of athletes is paternalistic and such decisions are not rightfully within the domain of medicine.

(Un-) healthy ageing: Geographic inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in England and Wales.

Health expectancies are an indicator of healthy ageing that reflect quantity and quality of life. Using limiting long term illness and mortality prevalence, we calculate disability-free life expectancy for small areas in England and Wales between 1991 and 2011 for males and females aged 50-74, the life stage when people may be changing their occupation from main career to retirement or alternative work activities. We find that inequalities in disability-free life expectancy are deeply entrenched, including former coalfield and ex-industrial areas and that areas of persistent (dis-) advantage, worsening or improving deprivation have health change in line with deprivation change. A mixed health picture for rural and coastal areas requires further investigation as do the demographic processes which underpin these area level health differences.

Cardiovascular preventive pharmacotherapy stratified by predicted cardiovascular risk: a national data linkage study.

AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk management guided by predicted CVD risk is widely recommended internationally. This is the first study to examine CVD preventive pharmacotherapy in a whole-of-country primary prevention population, stratified by CVD risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: Anonymized individual-level linkage of New Zealand administrative health and non-health data identified 2 250 201 individuals without atherosclerotic CVD, alive, and aged 30-74 years on 31 March 2013. We identified individuals with ≥1 dispensing by community pharmacies of blood pressure lowering (BPL) and/or lipid-lowering (LL) medications at baseline (1 October 2012-31 March 2013) and in 6-month periods between 1 April 2013 and 31 March 2016. Individuals were stratified using 5-year CVD risk equations specifically developed for application in administrative datasets. One-quarter of individuals had ≥5% 5-year risk (the current New Zealand guideline threshold for discussing preventive medications) and 5% met the ≥15% risk threshold for recommended dual therapy. By study end, dual therapy was dispensed to 2%, 18%, 34%, and 49% of individuals with <5%, 5-9%, 10-14%, and ≥15% 5-year risk, respectively. Among those dispensed baseline dual therapy, 83-89% across risk strata were still treated after 3 years. Dual therapy initiation during follow-up occurred among only 13% of high-risk individuals untreated at baseline. People without diabetes and those aged ≥65 years were more likely to remain untreated. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular disease primary preventive pharmacotherapy was strongly associated with predicted CVD risk and, once commenced, was generally continued. However, only half of high-risk individuals received recommended dual therapy and treatment initiation was modest. Individually linked administrative datasets can identify clinically relevant quality improvement opportunities for entire populations.

Skeletal muscle: functional anatomy and pathophysiology.

Muscle is generally divided into three subtypes-skeletal, cardiac, and smooth-but because this edition focuses on the musculoskeletal system, this article concentrates on skeletal muscle. We review ultrastructure and function and then look at the latest scientific ideas concerning the physiological basis of muscle contraction. It is important to appreciate the different muscle types and how they act with respect to muscle growth and adaptation. Finally, what happens to muscle cells when they are damaged and the reparative response is considered.

Effect of age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status and region on dispensing of CVD secondary prevention medication in New Zealand: the Atlas of Health Care Variation CVD cohort (VIEW-1).

BACKGROUND: Triple therapy with anti-platelet/anti-coagulant, blood pressure (BP)-lowering, and statin medications improves outcomes in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, in practice there is often a substantial evidence-practice gap, with sub-optimal initiation and longer-term adherence. Our aim was to enumerate a contemporary national cohort of people with significant CVD and report the variation in CVD secondary prevention dispensing by demographic variables. METHODS: Using anonymised linkage of national data sets, we identified 86,256 individuals, alive and residing in New Zealand at the end of 2010, aged 30-79 years who were hospitalised for an atherosclerotic CVD event or procedure in the previous10 years. This cohort was linked to the national pharmaceutical dispensing dataset to assess dispensing of CVD prevention medications during the 2011 calendar year. Adequate dispensing was defined as being dispensed a drug in at least 3 of the 4 quarters of the year. Multivariate regression was used to identify independent predictors of adequate dispensing. RESULTS: 59% were maintained on triple therapy, 77% on BP-lowering medication, 75% on anti-platelet/anti-coagulants and 70% on statins. From multivariate analysis, patients less than 50 years were about 20% less likely than older patients and women were 10% less likely than men to be maintained on triple therapy. Indian patients were about 10% more likely to be maintained on triple therapy than NZ European/Others. Those living in the Southern Cardiac Network region of New Zealand had slightly higher rates of triple therapy than National Cardiac Regions further north. CONCLUSIONS: The significant under-utilisation of safe and inexpensive secondary prevention medication, particularly in younger people and women, provides an opportunity to improve CVD outcomes in this easily identifiable high-risk population.