Twenty-Year Public Health Impact of 7- and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in US Children.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been used in the United States since 2000. To assess the cumulative 20-year effect of PCVs on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence among children <5 years of age, we analyzed Active Bacterial Core Surveillance data, conducted a literature review, and modeled expected and observed disease. We found that PCVs have averted >282,000 cases of IPD, including ≈16,000 meningitis, ≈172,000 bacteremia, and ≈55,000 bacteremic pneumonia cases. In addition, vaccination has prevented 97 million healthcare visits for otitis media, 438,914-706,345 hospitalizations for pneumonia, and 2,780 total deaths. IPD cases declined 91%, from 15,707 in 1997 to 1,382 in 2019. Average annual visits for otitis media declined 41%, from 78 visits/100 children before PCV introduction to 46 visits/100 children after PCV13 introduction. Annual pneumonia hospitalizations declined 66%-79%, from 110,000-175,000 in 1997 to 37,000 in 2019. These findings confirm the substantial benefits of PCVs for preventing IPD in children.

Rates and costs of invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia in persons with underlying medical conditions.

BACKGROUND: The presence of certain underlying medical conditions is known to increase the risk of pneumococcal disease in persons of all ages and across a wide spectrum of conditions, as demonstrated in two recent evaluations. Corresponding estimates of attributable economic costs have not been well characterized. We thus undertook a retrospective evaluation to estimate rates and costs of pneumococcal disease among children and adults with and without underlying medical conditions in the United States. METHODS: Data were obtained from three independent healthcare claims repositories. The study population included all persons enrolled in participating health plans during 2007-2010, and was stratified into subgroups based on age and risk profile: healthy; at-risk, due to selected comorbid conditions; and high-risk, due to selected immunocompromising conditions. At-risk and high-risk conditions, as well as episodes of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and all-cause pneumonia (PNE), were identified via diagnosis, procedure, and drug codes. Rates and healthcare costs of IPD and PNE (2010US$) among at-risk and high-risk persons were compared with those from age-stratified healthy counterparts using incidence rate ratios (IRR) and cost ratios. RESULTS: Rates of IPD and PNE were consistently higher among at-risk persons (IRR = 4.1 [95 % CI 3.9-4.3] and 4.5 [4.49-4.53]) and high-risk persons (IRR = 10.3 [9.7-11.0] and 8.2 [8.2-8.3]) of all ages versus their healthy counterparts. Rates were notably high for at-risk persons with ≥2 conditions (IRR = 9.0 [8.4-9.7] and 10.3 [10.3-10.4]), as well as those with asthma (IRR = 3.4 [3.0-3.8] and 4.5 [4.47-4.53]) or diabetes (IRR = 4.3 [4.0-4.6] and 4.7 [4.6-4.7]). Healthcare costs totaled $21.7 million per 100,000 at-risk person-years and $58.5 million per 100,000 high-risk person-years, which were 8.7 [8.5-8.8] and 23.4 [22.9-23.8] times higher than corresponding costs for healthy persons. CONCLUSIONS: Rates and costs of IPD and PNE are substantially higher among persons with certain chronic and immunocompromising conditions versus those without any such conditions. Rates and costs for persons with asthma and diabetes were especially increased, and rates and costs for individuals with ≥2 at-risk conditions approached those among persons with high-risk conditions.

Rates of pneumonia among children and adults with chronic medical conditions in Germany.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to evaluate rates of all-cause pneumonia among "at-risk" and "high-risk" children and adults in Germany-in comparison with age-stratified healthy counterparts-during the period following the 2006 recommendation for universal immunization of infants with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. METHODS: Retrospective cohort design and healthcare claims information for 3.4 M persons in Germany (2009-2012) were employed. Study population was stratified by age and risk profile (healthy, "at-risk" [with chronic medical conditions], and "high-risk" [immunocompromised]). At-risk and high-risk conditions, as well as episodes of all-cause pneumonia, were identified via diagnosis, procedure, and drug codes. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Rates of all-cause pneumonia were 1.7 (95 % CI 1.7-1.8) to 2.5 (2.4-2.5) times higher among children and adults with at-risk conditions versus healthy counterparts, and 1.8 (1.8-1.9) to 4.1 (4.0-4.2) times higher among children and adults with high-risk conditions. Rates of all-cause pneumonia among at-risk persons increased in a graded and monotonic fashion with increasing numbers of conditions (i.e., risk stacking). CONCLUSIONS: An increased risk for all-cause pneumonia in German children and adults with a spectrum of medical conditions persists in the era of widespread pneumococcal vaccination, and pneumonia risk in persons with ≥2 at-risk conditions is comparable or higher than those with high-risk conditions.

Risk of pneumococcal disease in children with chronic medical conditions in the era of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

BACKGROUND: In the current era of universal immunization of young children with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, it is unclear whether the high risk ratios for pneumococcal disease previously attributed to specified chronic conditions have persisted. In addition, further analysis of pneumococcal disease risk may clarify whether certain chronic conditions that currently are not specified as significantly increasing the risk of pneumococcal disease should be so considered. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis utilizing healthcare claims data from the period 2007-2010 to compare rates of pneumococcal disease among children <5 and 5-17 years of age with high-risk and at-risk conditions to rates among children without these conditions in the same age group. Risk profiles and manifestations of pneumococcal infection were ascertained from diagnosis, procedure, and drug codes. RESULTS: Among at-risk children, rate ratios for invasive pneumococcal disease (vs children without at-risk/high-risk conditions) were 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.3) in children <5 years of age and 3.3 (95% CI, 2.4-4.4) in children 5-17 years of age. Corresponding rate ratios for high-risk children were 11.2 (95% CI, 7.0-17.9) and 40.1 (95% CI, 28.8-56.0). Rate ratios increased in asthmatic children with increasing disease severity and in all at-risk children by the number of concurrent at-risk conditions. Rate ratios for pneumococcal pneumonia and all-cause pneumonia demonstrated similar patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Children with high-risk and at-risk conditions continue to demonstrate an increased burden of pneumococcal disease. Pneumococcal disease rates are high among asthmatic children with moderate and severe disease and children with multiple at-risk conditions.

Cost-effectiveness and impact on infections and associated antimicrobial resistance of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in US children previously immunized with PCV13.

AIM: The US Food and Drug Administration approved the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) to prevent pneumococcal disease. In the context of routine PCV20 vaccination, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and public health and economic impact of a PCV20 catch-up program and estimated the number of antibiotic prescriptions and antibiotic-resistant infections averted. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A population-based, multi-cohort, decision-analytic Markov model was developed using parameters consistent with previous PCV20 cost-effectiveness analyses. In the intervention arm, children aged 14-59 months who previously completed PCV13 vaccination received a supplemental dose of PCV20. In the comparator arm, no catch-up PCV20 dose was given. The direct and indirect benefits of vaccination were captured over a 10-year time horizon. RESULTS: A PCV20 catch-up program would prevent 5,469 invasive pneumococcal disease cases, 50,286 hospitalized pneumonia cases, 218,240 outpatient pneumonia cases, 582,302 otitis media cases, and 1,800 deaths, representing a net gain of 30,014 life years and 55,583 quality-adjusted life years. Furthermore, 720,938 antibiotic prescriptions and 256,889 antibiotic-resistant infections would be averted. A catch-up program would result in cost savings of $800 million. These results were robust to sensitivity and scenario analyses. CONCLUSIONS: A PCV20 catch-up program could prevent pneumococcal infections, antibiotic prescriptions, and antimicrobial-resistant infections and would be cost-saving in the US.

Cost-effectiveness of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in US infants.

BACKGROUND: As of June 2023, two pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, 20- (PCV20) and 15- (PCV15) valent formulations, are recommended for US infants under a 3 + 1 schedule. This study evaluated the health and economic impact of vaccinating US infants with a new expanded valency PCV20 formulation. METHODS: A population-based, multi cohort, decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of PCV20 from both societal and healthcare system perspectives over 10 years. Epidemiological data were based on published studies and unpublished Active Bacterial Core Surveillance System (ABCs) data. Vaccine effectiveness was based on PCV13 effectiveness and PCV7 efficacy studies. Indirect impact was based on observational studies. Costs and disutilities were based on published data. PCV20 was compared to both PCV13 and PCV15 in separate scenarios. RESULTS: Replacing PCV13 with PCV20 in infants has the potential to avert over 55,000 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases, 2.5 million pneumonia cases, 5.4 million otitis media (OM) cases, and 19,000 deaths across all ages over a 10-year time horizon, corresponding to net gains of 515,000 life years and 271,000 QALYs. Acquisition costs of PCV20 were offset by monetary savings from averted cases resulting in net savings of $20.6 billion. The same trend was observed when comparing PCV20 versus PCV15, with a net gain of 146,000 QALYs and $9.9 billion in net savings. A large proportion of the avoided costs and cases were attributable to indirect effects in unvaccinated adults and elderly. From a health-care perspective, PCV20 was also the dominant strategy compared to both PCV13 and PCV15. CONCLUSIONS: Infant vaccination with PCV20 is estimated to further reduce pneumococcal disease and associated healthcare system and societal costs compared to both PCV13 and PCV15.

Cost-Effectiveness of 20-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Among US Children with Underlying Medical Conditions.

INTRODUCTION: A 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) was recently recommended for use among US children. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of PCV20 among children aged 6 years with chronic medical conditions (CMC+) and children aged 6 years with immunocompromising conditions (IC) versus one and two doses of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23), respectively. METHODS: A probabilistic model was employed to depict 10-year risk of clinical outcomes and economic costs of pneumococcal disease, reduction in life years from premature death, and expected impact of vaccination among one cohort of children with CMC+ and IC aged 6 years. Vaccine uptake was assumed to be 20% for both PCV20 and PPSV23. Cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was evaluated from the US societal and healthcare system perspectives; deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA/PSA) were also conducted. RESULTS: Among the 226,817 children with CMC+ aged 6 years in the US, use of PCV20 (in lieu of PPSV23) was projected to reduce the number cases of pneumococcal disease by 5203 cases, medical costs by US$8.7 million, and nonmedical costs by US$6.2 million. PCV20 was the dominant strategy versus PPSV23 from both the healthcare and societal perspectives. In the PSA, 99.9% of the 1000 simulations yielded a finding of dominance for PCV20. Findings in analyses of children with IC aged 6 years in the USA were comparable (i.e., PCV20 was the dominant vaccination strategy). Scenario analyses showed that increasing PCV20 uptake to 100% could potentially prevent > 22,000 additional cases of pneumococcal disease and further reduce medical and nonmedical costs by US$70.0 million among children with CMC+ and IC. CONCLUSIONS: Use of PCV20 among young children with CMC+ and IC in the USA would reduce the clinical burden of pneumococcal disease and yield overall cost savings from both the US healthcare system and societal perspectives. Higher PCV20 uptake could further reduce the number of pneumococcal disease cases in this population.

Cost-effectiveness of 2 + 1 dosing of 13-valent and 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Thirteen-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) and 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) are two recently approved vaccines for the active immunization against Streptococcus pneumoniae causing invasive pneumococcal disease in infants and children. PCV13 offers broader protection against Streptococcus pneumoniae; however, PCV10 offers potential protection against non-typeable Haemophilus influenza (NTHi). We examined public health and economic impacts of a PCV10 and PCV13 pediatric national immunization programs (NIPs) in Canada. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was developed to examine the costs and outcomes associated with PCV10 and PCV13 pediatric NIPs. The model followed individuals over the remainder of their lifetime. Recent disease incidence, serotype coverage, population data, percent vaccinated, costs, and utilities were obtained from the published literature. Direct and indirect effects were derived from 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine. Additional direct effect of 4% was attributed to PCV10 for moderate to severe acute otitis media to account for potential NTHi benefit. Annual number of disease cases and costs (2010 Canadian dollars) were presented. RESULTS: In Canada, PCV13 was estimated to prevent more cases of disease (49,340 when considering both direct and indirect effects and 7,466 when considering direct effects only) than PCV10. This translated to population gains of 258 to 13,828 more quality-adjusted life-years when vaccinating with PCV13 versus PCV10. Annual direct medical costs (including the cost of vaccination) were estimated to be reduced by $5.7 million to $132.8 million when vaccinating with PCV13. Thus, PCV13 dominated PCV10, and sensitivity analyses showed PCV13 to always be dominant or cost-effective versus PCV10. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the epidemiology of pneumococcal disease in Canada, PCV13 is shown to be a cost-saving immunization program because it provides substantial public health and economic benefits relative to PCV10.

Modeling the impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotype catch-up program using United States claims data.

BACKGROUND: Analysis of US claims data from April 2010 to June 2011 estimated that 39% of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) catch-up eligible cohort would ever receive the catch-up vaccination; a previous analysis assumed 87%. METHODS: This updated figure was applied to a previously published 10-year Markov model while holding all other inputs constant. RESULTS: Our model estimated that the catch-up program as currently implemented is estimated to prevent an additional 1.7 million cases of disease in children aged ≤ 59 months over a 10-year period, compared with routine PCV13 vaccination with no catch-up program. CONCLUSIONS: Because 39% catch-up uptake is less than the level of completion of the 4-dose primary PCV13 series, vaccine-preventable cases of pneumococcal disease and related deaths could be decreased further with additional uptake of catch-up vaccination in the catch-up eligible cohort.

The broader impacts of otitis media and sequelae for informing economic evaluations of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.

INTRODUCTION: Otitis media (OM) is a common childhood infection. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) prevent OM episodes, thereby reducing short- and long-term clinical, economic, humanistic, and societal consequences. Most economic evaluations of PCVs focus on direct health gains and cost savings from prevented acute episodes but do not fully account for the broader societal impacts of OM prevention. AREAS COVERED: This review explores the broader burden of OM on children, caregivers, and society to better inform future economic evaluations of PCVs. EXPERT OPINION: OM causes a substantial burden to society through long-term sequelae, productivity losses, reduced quality of life for children and caregivers, and contribution to antimicrobial resistance from inappropriate antibiotic use. The effect of PCVs on acute OM has been recognized globally, yet the broader impact has not been consistently quantified, studied, or communicated. Economic evaluations of PCVs must evolve to include broader effects for patients, caregivers, and society from OM prevention. Future PCVs with broader coverage may further reduce OM incidence and antimicrobial resistance, but optimal uptake will depend on increasing the recognition and use of novel frameworks that include broader benefits. Communicating the full value of PCVs to decision makers may result in wider access and positive societal returns.

Burden of pneumococcal disease due to serotypes covered by the 13-valent and new higher-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in the United States.

The addition of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to the United States (US) national immunization program led to significant reductions in incidence, mortality, and associated sequelae caused by pneumococcal disease (PD) in children and adults through direct and indirect protection. However, there remains clinical and economic burden due to PD caused by serotypes not included in the current 13-valent PCV (PCV13) formulation. To address this unmet need, 15-valent PCV (PCV15) and 20-valent PCV (PCV20), containing additional serotypes to PCV13, were recently approved in the US for adults and are anticipated for pediatrics in the near future. The study objective was to estimate the annual number of cases, deaths, and economic burden of PD due to serotypes included in PCV13, PCV15, and PCV20 for both US pediatric and adult populations. An Excel-based model was developed to calculate clinical and economic outcomes using published age-group specific serotype coverage; incidence of invasive PD, community-acquired pneumonia, and acute otitis media; case fatality rates; and disease-related costs. The results showed that across all age groups, the estimated annual PD cases and associated deaths covered by PCV13 serotypes were 914,199 and 4320, respectively. Compared with PCV13 serotypes, the additional 2 and 7 serotypes covered by PCV15 and PCV20 were attributed with 550,475 and 991,220 annual PD cases, as well as 1425 and 3226 annual deaths, respectively. This clinical burden translates into considerable economic costs ranging from $903 to $1,928 million USD that could be potentially addressed by PCV15 and PCV20. The additional serotypes included in PCV20 contribute substantially to the clinical and economic PD burden in the US pediatric and adult populations. Despite the success of the PCV13 pediatric national immunization program and increased adult uptake of PCV13 and 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine, broader PCV serotype coverage is needed across all ages to further reduce pneumococcal disease burden.

Potential reduction in neural tube defects associated with use of Metafolin-fortified oral contraceptives in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to estimate the potential reduction of neural tube defects (NTDs) through the use of Metafolin-fortified oral contraceptives (OCs) in the United States. STUDY DESIGN: A population-based decision analytic model was developed to estimate the benefits of increased red blood cell (RBC) folate levels through the use of Metafolin-fortified OCs on NTD risk during pregnancy. We modeled women who began the year taking Metafolin-fortified or traditional OCs. Folate levels were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and clinical trial data. NTD risk was estimated by applying a published risk equation to respective RBC folate levels. RESULTS: The number of predicted NTD cases declined by 23.7% to 31.4%, depending on median baseline folate levels in women taking a fortified OC compared with taking a traditional OC. CONCLUSION: Metafolin-fortified OCs have the potential to reduce the number of folate-dependent NTDs among current and recent OC users.

[Economic evaluation of an infant immunization program in Mexico, based on 13-valent pneumococcal conjugated vaccines]. / Evaluación económica de un programa de inmunización infantil en México basado en la vacuna neumocócica conjugada 13-valente.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccination is an effective intervention for reduce child morbidity and mortality associated to pneumococcus. The availability of new anti-pneumococcal vaccines makes it necessary to evaluate its potential impact on public health and costs related to their implementation. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of immunization strategies based on pneumococcal conjugated vaccines (PCV's) currently available in Mexico from a third payer perspective. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A decision tree model was developed to assess both, economic and health impact, of anti-pneumococcal vaccination in children <2 years (lifetime time horizon, discount rate: 5% annual). Comparators were: no-vaccination (reference) and strategies based on 7, 10 and 13-valent PCV's. Effectiveness measures were: child deaths avoided, life-years gained (LYG) and quality adjusted life years (QALY's) gained. Effectiveness, utility, local epidemiology and cost of treating pneumococcal diseases were extracted from published sources. Univariate sensitivity analysis were performed. RESULTS: Immunization dominates no-vaccination: strategy based on 13-valent vaccine prevented 16.205 deaths, gained 331.230 LY's and 332.006 QALY's and saved US$1.307/child vaccinated. Strategies based on 7 and 10-valent PCV's prevented 13.806 and 5.589 deaths, gained 282.193 and 114.251 LY's, 282.969 and 114.972 QALY's and saved US$1.084 and US$731/child vaccinated, respectively. These results were robust to variations in herd immunity and lower immunogenicity of 10-valent vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: In Mexico, immunization strategies based on 7, 10 and 13-valent PCV's would be cost-saving interventions, however, health outcomes and savings of the strategy based on 13-valent vaccine are greater than those estimated for 7 and 10-valent PCV's.

Validation of a Novel Forecasting Method for Estimating the Impact of Switching Pneumococcal Conjugate Programs: Evidence from Belgium.

INTRODUCTION: Since 2010, 10-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have been available as part of infant national immunization programs. Belgium is as one of the few countries that implemented PCV13 (2007-2015), switched to PCV10 (2015-2018) and then switched back to PCV13 (2018-present) after observing increases in disease. We assessed the impacts of both historical and prospective PCV choice in the context of the Belgian health care system and used this experience to validate previously developed economic models. METHODS: Using historical incidence (2007-2018) of pneumococcal disease for Belgian children aged < 16 years, observed invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) trends from surveillance data were used to estimate future disease in a given PCV13- or PCV10-based program. We compared observed incidence data with two modeled scenarios: (1) the 2015 switch to PCV10 and (2) a hypothetical continuation of PCV13 in 2015. Finally, we explored the potential impact of PCV choice from 2019 to 2023 by comparing three scenarios: (3) continued use of PCV10; (4) a switch back to PCV13; (5) a hypothetical scenario in which Belgium never switched from PCV13. RESULTS: Model predictions underestimated observed data from 2015 to 2018 by 100 IPD cases among ages < 16 years. Comparing observed data with scenario 2 suggests that PCV13 would have prevented 105 IPD cases from 2015 to 2018 compared with PCV10. Switching to PCV13 in 2019 would avert 625 IPD cases through 2023 compared with continuing PCV10. Scenario never switching from PCV13 would have resulted in a reduction of 204 cases from 2016 to 2023 compared with switching to PCV10 and switching back to PCV13. CONCLUSION: The findings from this study suggest that previously published modeling results of PCV13 versus PCV10 in other countries may have underestimated the benefit of PCV13. These results highlight the importance of continually protecting against vaccine-preventable pneumococcal serotypes.

Clinical and Economic Burden of Pneumococcal Disease Due to Serotypes Contained in Current and Investigational Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in Children Under Five Years of Age.

INTRODUCTION: The widespread implementation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has significantly reduced the burden of pneumococcal disease around the world. Although licensed 10-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent (PCV13) vaccines have considerably reduced mortality and morbidity, a sizeable disease burden attributable to serotypes not contained in these PCVs remains. This study aimed to estimate the annual clinical and economic burden of pneumococcal disease attributable to licensed (PCV10 and PCV13) and investigational PCVs, notably 15-valent (PCV15) and 20-valent (PCV20) vaccines, in 13 countries in children under 5 years of age. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was created to aggregate total cases [inclusive of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, and otitis media (OM)], deaths, and direct costs in each country of interest [stratified by PCV10/PCV13 countries, depending on national immunization programs (NIPs)] over 1 year, using up to the three most recent years of available serotype coverage data. Data inputs were sourced from local databases, surveillance reports, and published literature. RESULTS: In 5 PCV10 NIPs (Austria, Finland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden), most remaining PCV20-type disease was due to PCV13-unique serotypes (30-85%), followed by PCV20-unique (9-50%), PCV15-unique (4-15%), and PCV10-unique (2-14%) serotypes. In 8 PCV13 NIPs (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Spain, United Kingdom), most remaining PCV20-type disease was caused by PCV20-unique serotypes (16-69%), followed by PCV13-unique (11-54%), PCV15-unique (2-33%), and PCV10-unique serotypes (3-19%). Across all countries, PCV20 serotypes caused 3000 to 345,000 cases of disease and cost between $1.3 and $44.9 million USD annually with variability driven by population size, NIP status, and epidemiologic inputs. In aggregate, PCV20 serotypes caused 1,234,000 cases and $213.5 million in annual direct medical costs in children under 5 years of age. CONCLUSION: Despite the success of PCV10 and PCV13 in reducing pneumococcal disease, a substantial clinical and economic burden remains due to serotypes contained in investigational vaccines.

Public health impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a review of measurement challenges.

INTRODUCTION: Modeling analyses have attempted to quantify the global impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on pneumococcal disease (PD), however these pediatric models face several challenges in obtaining comprehensive impact measurements. AREAS COVERED: We present several measurement challenges and discuss examples from recently published pediatric modeling evaluations. Challenges include estimating the number of infants fully or partially vaccinated with PCVs, inclusion of indirect effects of vaccination, accounting for various dosing schedules, capturing effect of PCVs on nonspecific, noninvasive PD, and inclusion of adult PCV use. EXPERT OPINION: The true impact of PCVs has been consistently underestimated in published analyses due to multiple measurement challenges. Nearly 100 million adults are estimated to have received PCV13 over the last decade globally, potentially preventing up to 662 thousand cases of PD. Approximately 4.1 million cases of invasive PD alone may have been averted through indirect protection. Estimates of PCV impact on noninvasive PD remain a challenge due to altered epidemiology. Program switches, incomplete vaccination, and private market uptake among children also confound PD impact estimates. Taken together, the number of averted PD cases from PCV use in the last ten years may be up to three times higher than estimated in previous studies.

Health and Economic Impact of Routine Pediatric Pneumococcal Immunization Programs in Canada: A Retrospective Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: A model was developed to estimate the historical impact (including total societal health and economic benefit) of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs in the overall Canadian population between 2005 and 2015, inclusively. METHODS: Historical incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, and acute otitis media (AOM) were obtained from epidemiologic databases supplemented with published and unpublished data. Two scenarios were considered: (1) the observed historical incidence from 2005 to 2015 in the setting of PCV use; (2) a hypothetical scenario in which we estimated the number of disease cases assuming no PCV use. Disease cases averted as a result of PCV programs were calculated by subtracting the number of observed historical cases from the number of estimated cases expected in the absence of PCV use. RESULTS: PCV programs were estimated to have saved 6631 lives and averted 14,990 IPD cases, 735,700 pneumonia episodes, and 3,697,993 AOM episodes. Positive clinical outcomes resulted in total cost savings of CAD $1.76 billion over 11 years. Vaccination costs were offset by the direct medical cost savings from fewer cases of IPD, pneumonia, and AOM. CONCLUSIONS: Canadian PCV programs have provided significant health benefits and resulted in a substantial value for money. Net savings achieved over the reviewed period would have provided funding for $1.76 billion in other health care costs or public health initiatives. These findings highlight the importance of considering the total value of a vaccination program, rather than vaccine acquisition costs only, when assessing the value of immunization programs.

Estimating the Impact of Switching from a Lower to Higher Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Colombia, Finland, and The Netherlands: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Widespread use of ten-valent (Synflorix™, GSK) or 13-valent (Prevenar 13™; Pfizer) conjugate vaccination programs has effectively reduced invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) globally. However, IPD caused by serotypes not contained within the respective vaccines continues to increase, notably serotypes 3, 6A, and 19A in countries using lower-valent vaccines. Our objective was to estimate the clinical and economic benefit of replacing PCV10 with PCV13 in Colombia, Finland, and The Netherlands. METHODS: Country-specific databases, supplemented with published and unpublished data, informed the historical incidence of pneumococcal disease as well as direct and indirect medical costs. A decision-analytic forecasting model was applied, and both costs and outcomes were discounted. The observed invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) trends from each country were used to forecast the future number of IPD cases given a PCV13 or PCV10 program. RESULTS: Over a 5-year time horizon, a switch to a PCV13 program was estimated to reduce overall IPD among 0-2 year olds by an incremental - 37.6% in Colombia, - 32.9% in Finland, and - 26% in The Netherlands, respectively, over PCV10. Adults > 65 years experienced a comparable incremental decrease in overall IPD in Colombia (- 32.2%), Finland (- 15%), and The Netherlands (- 3.7%). Serotypes 3, 6A, and 19A drove the incremental decrease in disease for PCV13 over PCV10 in both age groups. A PCV13 program was dominant in Colombia and Finland and cost-effective in The Netherlands at 1 × GDP per capita (€34,054/QALY). CONCLUSION: In Colombia, Finland, and The Netherlands, countries with diverse epidemiologic and population distributions, switching from a PCV10 to PCV13 program would significantly reduce the burden of IPD in all three countries in as few as 5 years.

Economic evaluation of meningococcal vaccines: considerations for the future.

In 2018, a panel of health economics and meningococcal disease experts convened to review methodologies, frameworks, and decision-making processes for economic evaluations of vaccines, with a focus on evaluation of vaccines targeting invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). The panel discussed vaccine evaluation methods across countries; IMD prevention benefits that are well quantified using current methods, not well quantified, or missing in current cost-effectiveness methodologies; and development of recommendations for future evaluation methods. Consensus was reached on a number of points and further consideration was deemed necessary for some topics. Experts agreed that the unpredictability of IMD complicates an accurate evaluation of meningococcal vaccine benefits and that vaccine cost-effectiveness evaluations should encompass indirect benefits, both for meningococcal vaccines and vaccines in general. In addition, the panel agreed that transparency in the vaccine decision-making process is beneficial and should be implemented when possible. Further discussion is required to ascertain: how enhancing consistency of frameworks for evaluating outcomes of vaccine introduction can be improved; reviews of existing tools used to capture quality of life; how indirect costs are considered within models; and whether and how the weighting of quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), application of QALY adjustment factors, or use of altered cost-effectiveness thresholds should be used in the economic evaluation of vaccines.

Comment on Gomez et. al. "Response to article by Wasserman et. al. (2018) 'Modelling the sustained use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine compared to switching to the 10-valent vaccine in Mexico'".

In a recent Letter, Gomez et. al. provided a critique of our original analysis estimating the clinical and economic impact of switching from the 13-valent (PCV13) to the 10-valent (PCV10) pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Mexico. This comment addresses Gomez et. al.'s comments with additional information and clarifies potential misinterpretations.