Finding the best subgroup with differential treatment effect with multiple outcomes.

Precision medicine aims to identify specific patient subgroups that may benefit the most from a particular treatment than the whole population. Existing definitions for the best subgroup in subgroup analysis are based on a single outcome and do not consider multiple outcomes; specifically, outcomes of different types. In this article, we introduce a definition for the best subgroup under a multiple-outcome setting with continuous, binary, and censored time-to-event outcomes. Our definition provides a trade-off between the subgroup size and the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in the subgroup with respect to each of the outcomes while taking the relative contribution of the outcomes into account. We conduct simulations to illustrate the proposed definition. By examining the outcomes of urinary tract infection and renal scarring in the RIVUR clinical trial, we identify a subgroup of children that would benefit the most from long-term antimicrobial prophylaxis.

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U-shape hazard functions.

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time-dependent covariate with monotone or U-shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

An imputation approach for a time-to-event analysis subject to missing outcomes due to noncoverage in disease registries.

Disease incidence data in a national-based cohort study would ideally be obtained through a national disease registry. Unfortunately, no such registry currently exists in the United States. Instead, the results from individual state registries need to be combined to ascertain certain disease diagnoses in the United States. The National Cancer Institute has initiated a program to assemble all state registries to provide a complete assessment of all cancers in the United States. Unfortunately, not all registries have agreed to participate. In this article, we develop an imputation-based approach that uses self-reported cancer diagnosis from longitudinally collected questionnaires to impute cancer incidence not covered by the combined registry. We propose a two-step procedure, where in the first step a mover-stayer model is used to impute a participant's registry coverage status when it is only reported at the time of the questionnaires given at 10-year intervals and the time of the last-alive vital status and death. In the second step, we propose a semiparametric working model, fit using an imputed coverage area sample identified from the mover-stayer model, to impute registry-based survival outcomes for participants in areas not covered by the registry. The simulation studies show the approach performs well as compared with alternative ad hoc approaches for dealing with this problem. We illustrate the methodology with an analysis that links the United States Radiologic Technologists study cohort with the combined registry that includes 32 of the 50 states.

G-estimation of structural nested mean models for interval-censored data using pseudo-observations.

Two large-scale randomized clinical trials compared fenofibrate and placebo in diabetic patients with pre-existing retinopathy (FIELD study) or risk factors (ACCORD trial) on an intention-to-treat basis and reported a significant reduction in the progression of diabetic retinopathy in the fenofibrate arms. However, their analyses involved complications due to intercurrent events, that is, treatment-switching and interval-censoring. This article addresses these problems involved in estimation of causal effects of long-term use of fibrates in a cohort study that followed patients with type 2 diabetes for 8 years. We propose structural nested mean models (SNMMs) of time-varying treatment effects and pseudo-observation estimators for interval-censored data. The first estimator for SNMMs uses a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) as a pseudo-observation, while the second estimator is based on MLE under a parametric piecewise exponential distribution. Through numerical studies with real and simulated datasets, the pseudo-observations estimators of causal effects using the nonparametric Wellner-Zhan estimator perform well even under dependent interval-censoring. Its application to the diabetes study revealed that the use of fibrates in the first 4 years reduced the risk of diabetic retinopathy but did not support its efficacy beyond 4 years.

CRM and partial order CRM with adaptive rescaling for dose-finding in immunotherapy trials with a continuous outcome.

In many phase 1 oncology trials of immunotherapies, no dose-limiting toxicities are observed and the maximum tolerated dose cannot be identified. In these settings, dose-finding can be guided by a biomarker of response rather than the occurrences of dose-limiting toxicity. The recommended phase 2 dose can be defined as the dose with mean response equal to a prespecified value of a continuous response biomarker. To target the mean of a continuous biomarker, we build on the idea of the continual reassessment method and the quasi-Bernoulli likelihood. We extend the design to a problem of finding the recommended phase 2 dose combination in a trial with multiple immunotherapies.

Inference on subgroups identified based on a heterogeneous treatment effect in a post hoc analysis of a clinical trial.

Due to the many benefits of understanding treatment effect heterogeneity in a clinical trial, an exploratory post hoc subgroup analysis is often performed to find subpopulations of patients with conditional average treatment effect that suggests better treatment efficacy than in the overall population. A naive re-substitution approach uses all available data to identify a subgroup and then proceeds with estimation and inference using the same data set. This approach generally leads to an overly optimistic estimate of conditional average treatment effect. In this article, in a post hoc analysis, we estimate the target optimal subgroup through maximizing a utility function, from candidates systematically identified with a penalized regression. We then compare two resampling-based bias-correction methods, cross-validation and debiasing bootstrap, for obtaining approximately unbiased estimates and valid inference of conditional average treatment effect in the identified subgroup, with either an empirical or an augmented estimator. Our results show that both the cross-validation and the debiasing bootstrap methods reduce the re-substitution bias effectively. The cross-validation method appears to have less biased point estimates, smaller standard error estimates, but poorer coverages than the debiasing bootstrap method when using the empirical estimator and the sample size is moderate. Using the augmented estimator in the debiasing bootstrap method leads to less biased point estimates but poorer coverages. We conclude that bias correction should be a part of every exploratory post hoc subgroup analysis to eliminate re-substitution bias and to obtain a proper confidence interval for the estimated conditional average treatment effect in the selected subgroup.

Effects of anesthesia exposure on postnatal maturation of white matter in rhesus monkeys.

There is increasing concern about the potential effects of anesthesia exposure on the developing brain. The effects of relatively brief anesthesia exposures used repeatedly to acquire serial magnetic resonance imaging scans could be examined prospectively in rhesus macaques. We analyzed magnetic resonance diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) of 32 rhesus macaques (14 females, 18 males) aged 2 weeks to 36 months to assess postnatal white matter (WM) maturation. We investigated the longitudinal relationships between each DTI property and anesthesia exposure, taking age, sex, and weight of the monkeys into consideration. Quantification of anesthesia exposure was normalized to account for variation in exposures. Segmented linear regression with two knots provided the best model for quantifying WM DTI properties across brain development as well as the summative effect of anesthesia exposure. The resulting model revealed statistically significant age and anesthesia effects in most WM tracts. Our analysis indicated there were major effects on WM associated with low levels of anesthesia even when repeated as few as three times. Fractional anisotropy values were reduced across several WM tracts in the brain, indicating that anesthesia exposure may delay WM maturation, and highlight the potential clinical concerns with even a few exposures in young children.

Accounting for Preinvasive Conditions in Analysis of Invasive Cancer Risk: Application to Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Preinvasive cancer conditions are often actively treated to minimize progression to life-threatening invasive cancers, but this creates challenges for analysis of invasive cancer risk. Conventional methods of treating preinvasive conditions as censoring events or targeting at the composite outcome could both lead to bias. METHODS: We propose two solutions: one that provides exact estimates of risk based on distributional assumptions about progression, and one that provides risk bounds corresponding to extreme cases of no or complete progression. We compare these approaches through simulations and an analysis of the Sister Study data in the context of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer. RESULTS: Simulations suggested important biases with conventional approaches, whereas the proposed estimate is consistent when progression parameters are correctly specified, and the risk bounds are robust in all scenarios. With Sister Study, the estimated lifetime risks for invasive breast cancer are 0.220 and 0.269 with DCIS censored or combined. Without detailed progression information, a sensitivity analysis suggested lifetime risk falls between the bounds of 0.214 and 0.269 across assumptions of 10%-95% of DCIS patients progressing to invasive cancer in an average of 1-10 years. CONCLUSIONS: When estimating invasive cancer risk while preinvasive conditions are actively treated, it is important to consider the implied assumptions and potential biases of conventional approaches. Although still not perfect, we proposed two practical solutions that provide improved understanding of the underlying mechanism of invasive cancer.

Generalized multi-SNP mediation intersection-union test.

To elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying genetic variants identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for a variety of phenotypic traits encompassing binary, continuous, count, and survival outcomes, we propose a novel and flexible method to test for mediation that can simultaneously accommodate multiple genetic variants and different types of outcome variables. Specifically, we employ the intersection-union test approach combined with the likelihood ratio test to detect mediation effect of multiple genetic variants via some mediator (e.g., the expression of a neighboring gene) on outcome. We fit high-dimensional generalized linear mixed models under the mediation framework, separately under the null and alternative hypothesis. We leverage Laplace approximation to compute the marginal likelihood of outcome and use coordinate descent algorithm to estimate corresponding parameters. Our extensive simulations demonstrate the validity of our proposed methods and substantial, up to 97%, power gains over alternative methods. Applications to real data for the study of Chlamydia trachomatis infection further showcase advantages of our methods. We believe our proposed methods will be of value and general interest in this post-GWAS era to disentangle the potential causal mechanism from DNA to phenotype for new drug discovery and personalized medicine.

Competing risks predictions with different time scales under the additive risk model.

In the analysis for competing risks data, regression modeling of the cause-specific hazard functions has been usually conducted using the same time scale for all event types. However, when the true time scale is different for each event type, it would be appropriate to specify regression models for the cause-specific hazards on different time scales for different event types. Often, the proportional hazards model has been used for regression modeling of the cause-specific hazard functions. However, the proportionality assumption may not be appropriate in practice. In this article, we consider the additive risk model as an alternative to the proportional hazards model. We propose predictions of the cumulative incidence functions under the cause-specific additive risk models employing different time scales for different event types. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the predicted cumulative incidence functions under the cause-specific additive risk models specified on different time scales using empirical processes and derive consistent variance estimators of the predicted cumulative incidence functions. Through simulation studies, we show that the proposed prediction methods perform well. We illustrate the methods using stage III breast cancer data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute.

Semiparametric analysis of a generalized linear model with multiple covariates subject to detection limits.

Studies on the health effects of environmental mixtures face the challenge of limit of detection (LOD) in multiple correlated exposure measurements. Conventional approaches to deal with covariates subject to LOD, including complete-case analysis, substitution methods, and parametric modeling of covariate distribution, are feasible but may result in efficiency loss or bias. With a single covariate subject to LOD, a flexible semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) model to accommodate censored measurements has been proposed. We generalize this approach by considering a multivariate AFT model for the multiple correlated covariates subject to LOD and a generalized linear model for the outcome. A two-stage procedure based on semiparametric pseudo-likelihood is proposed for estimating the effects of these covariates on health outcome. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators are derived for an arbitrary fixed dimension of covariates. Simulations studies demonstrate good large sample performance of the proposed methods vs conventional methods in realistic scenarios. We illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method with the LIFECODES birth cohort data, where we compare our approach to existing approaches in an analysis of multiple urinary trace metals in association with oxidative stress in pregnant women.

Pregnancy-related factors may signal additional protection or risk of future cardiovascular diseases.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) guidelines recommend using the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) to assess 10-year CVD risk based on traditional risk factors. Pregnancy-related factors have been associated with future CVD. We examined the contribution of two pregnancy-related factors, (1) history of a low birthweight (LBW) infant and (2) breastfeeding to CVD risk accounting for traditional risk factors as assessed by the PCE. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of women, ages 40-79, with a history of pregnancy, but no prior CVD, was identified using NHANES 1999-2006. Outcomes included (1) CVD death and (2) CVD death plus CVD surrogates. We used Cox proportional hazards models to adjust for PCE risk score. RESULTS: Among 3,758 women, 479 had a LBW infant and 1,926 reported breastfeeding. Mean follow-up time was 12.1 years. Survival models showed a consistent reduction in CVD outcomes among women with a history of breastfeeding. In cause-specific survival models, breastfeeding was associated with a 24% reduction in risk of CVD deaths (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.45─1.27, p = 0.30) and a 33% reduction in risk of CVD deaths + surrogate CVD, though not statistically significant. (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.52─1.14, p = 0.19). Survival models yielded inconclusive results for LBW with wide confidence intervals (CVD death: HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.47─2.05; p = 0.96 and CVD death + surrogate CVD: HR 1.29; 95% CI 0.74─2.25; p = 0.38). CONCLUSION: Pregnancy-related factors may provide important, relevant information about CVD risk beyond traditional risk factors. While further research with more robust datasets is needed, it may be helpful for clinicians to counsel women about the potential impact of pregnancy-related factors, particularly the positive impact of breastfeeding, on cardiovascular health.

Host Genetic Risk Factors for Chlamydia trachomatis-Related Infertility in Women.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection ascending to the upper genital tract can cause infertility. Direct association of genetic variants as contributors is challenging because infertility may not be diagnosed until years after infection. Investigating the intermediate trait of ascension bridges this gap. METHODS: We identified infertility genome-wide association study (GWAS) loci using deoxyribonucleic acid from Ct-seropositive cisgender women in a tubal factor infertility study and Ct-infected cisgender women from a longitudinal pelvic inflammatory disease cohort with known fertility status. Deoxyribonucleic acid and blood messenger ribonucleic acid from 2 additional female cohorts with active Ct infection and known endometrial infection status were used to investigate the impact of infertility single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on Ct ascension. A statistical mediation test examined whether multiple infertility SNPs jointly influenced ascension risk by modulating expression of mediator genes. RESULTS: We identified 112 candidate infertility GWAS loci, and 31 associated with Ct ascension. The SNPs altered chlamydial ascension by modulating expression of 40 mediator genes. Mediator genes identified are involved in innate immune responses including type I interferon production, T-cell function, fibrosis, female reproductive tract health, and protein synthesis and degradation. CONCLUSIONS: We identified Ct-related infertility loci and their potential functional effects on Ct ascension.

G-estimation of structural nested mean models for competing risks data using pseudo-observations.

This article provides methods of causal inference for competing risks data. The methods are formulated as structural nested mean models of causal effects directly related to the cumulative incidence function or subdistribution hazard, which reflect the survival experience of a subject in the presence of competing risks. The effect measures include causal risk differences, causal risk ratios, causal subdistribution hazard ratios, and causal effects of time-varying exposures. Inference is implemented by g-estimation using pseudo-observations, a technique to handle censoring. The finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators in simulated datasets and application to time-varying exposures in a cohort study of type 2 diabetes are also presented.

Consistency of the CRM when the dose-toxicity curve is not monotone and its application to the POCRM.

The continual reassessment method (CRM) is a well-known design for dose-finding trials with the goal of estimating the maximum tolerated dose (MTD), the dose with a given probability of toxicity. The standard assumption is that the probability of toxicity monotonically increases with dose. We show that the CRM can still be consistent and correctly identify the MTD even when the dose-toxicity curve is not monotone as long as there is monotonicity of the true toxicity probabilities right below and right above the true MTD. In the case of multiple therapies, where it is unclear how to order combinations of dose levels of multiple therapies, our findings provide insight into the performance of the partial order CRM (POCRM). To select the correct dose combination at the end of a trial, the POCRM does not have to select a monotone ordering of drug combinations. We illustrate the connection between our results for the CRM with a nonmonotone dose-toxicity curve and the POCRM via simulations.

Causal Proportional Hazards Estimation with a Binary Instrumental Variable.

Instrumental variables (IV) are a useful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. IV methods are well developed for uncensored outcomes, particularly for structural linear equation models, where simple two-stage estimation schemes are available. The extension of these methods to survival settings is challenging, partly because of the nonlinearity of the popular survival regression models and partly because of the complications associated with right censoring or other survival features. Motivated by the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer screening trial, we develop a simple causal hazard ratio estimator in a proportional hazards model with right censored data. The method exploits a special characterization of IV which enables the use of an intuitive inverse weighting scheme that is generally applicable to more complex survival settings with left truncation, competing risks, or recurrent events. We rigorously establish the asymptotic properties of the estimators, and provide plug-in variance estimators. The proposed method can be implemented in standard software, and is evaluated through extensive simulation studies. We apply the proposed IV method to a data set from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trial to delineate the causal effect of flexible sigmoidoscopy screening on colorectal cancer survival which may be confounded by informative noncompliance with the assigned screening regimen.

Antibacterial Use Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Hematologic and Gastrointestinal Adverse Events in Patients Treated with Gemcitabine for Stage IV Pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Preclinical evidence has demonstrated that common intratumor bacteria metabolize the chemotherapeutic drug gemcitabine. The significance of this bacterial metabolism pathway, relative to the known metabolic pathways by host enzymes, is not known. We hypothesized that bacterial metabolism is clinically significant and that "knockdown" by antibacterial therapy has the unintended effect of increasing the effective dose of gemcitabine, thereby increasing the risk for gemcitabine-associated toxicities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reanalyzed the comparator arm of the MPACT trial (NCT01442974), made available through Project Data Sphere, LLC (CEO Roundtable on Cancer's Life Sciences Consortium, Cary, NC; www.projectdatasphere.org). In this arm, 430 patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma were treated with gemcitabine. We used the Anderson-Gill survival model to compare the risk of developing an adverse event after antibacterial prescription with time unexposed to antibacterials. Adverse events of grade 3 and greater were considered at three levels of granularity: all aggregated into one endpoint, aggregated by class, and taken individually. Antibiotic exposures were analyzed in aggregate as well as by class. RESULTS: Antibacterial exposure was associated with an increased risk of adverse events (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.77; confidence interval [CI]: 1.46-2.14), any hematologic adverse event (HR: 1.64; CI: 1.26-2.13), and any gastrointestinal adverse event (HR: 2.14; CI: 1.12-4.10) but not a constitutional (HR: 1.33; CI: 0.611-2.90) or hepatologic adverse event (HR: 0.99; CI: 0.363-2.71). Among specific adverse events, antibacterial exposure was associated with an increased risk of anemia (HR: 3.16; CI: 1.59-6.27), thrombocytopenia (HR: 2.52; CI: 1.31-4.85), leukopenia (HR: 3.91; CI: 1.46-10.5), and neutropenia (HR: 1.53; CI: 1.07-2.17) but not any other specific adverse events. CONCLUSION: Antibacterial exposure was associated with an increased risk of gemcitabine-associated, dose-limiting adverse events, including aggregate hematologic and gastrointestinal events, as well as four specific hematologic adverse events, suggesting that intratumor bacteria may be responsible for a clinically significant portion of gemcitabine metabolism. Alternative avenues of evidence will be necessary to confirm this preliminary finding and assess its generalizability. There is plentiful opportunity for similar analyses on other clinical trial data sets, where gemcitabine or other biomimetic small molecules were used. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Patients treated with gemcitabine for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma have an increased rate of gemcitabine-associated toxicity during and after antibiotic therapy. This observation is consistent with preclinical evidence that intratumor bacteria metabolize gemcitabine to an inactive form. Further research is needed to determine whether this observation merits any changes in clinical practice.

Multi-SNP mediation intersection-union test.

SUMMARY: Tens of thousands of reproducibly identified GWAS (Genome-Wide Association Studies) variants, with the vast majority falling in non-coding regions resulting in no eventual protein products, call urgently for mechanistic interpretations. Although numerous methods exist, there are few, if any methods, for simultaneously testing the mediation effects of multiple correlated SNPs via some mediator (e.g. the expression of a gene in the neighborhood) on phenotypic outcome. We propose multi-SNP mediation intersection-union test (SMUT) to fill in this methodological gap. Our extensive simulations demonstrate the validity of SMUT as well as substantial, up to 92%, power gains over alternative methods. In addition, SMUT confirmed known mediators in a real dataset of Finns for plasma adiponectin level, which were missed by many alternative methods. We believe SMUT will become a useful tool to generate mechanistic hypotheses underlying GWAS variants, facilitating functional follow-up. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The R package SMUT is publicly available from CRAN at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=SMUT. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

The Influence of Screening, Misclassification, and Reporting Biases on Reported Chlamydia Case Rates Among Young Women in the United States, 2000 Through 2017.

BACKGROUND: National chlamydia case rate trends are difficult to interpret because of biases from partial screening coverage, imperfect diagnostic tests, and underreporting. We examined the extent to which these time-varying biases could influence reported annual chlamydia case rates. METHODS: Annual reported case rates among women aged 15 through 24 years from 2000 through 2017 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention AtlasPlus tool. Estimates of reporting completeness, diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity, and screening coverage were derived from literature review and expert opinion. We adjusted annual reported case rates for incomplete reporting, imperfect diagnostic tests, and partial screening coverage through a series of corrections, and calculated annual adjusted case rates of correctly diagnosed chlamydia. RESULTS: Adjusted chlamydia case rates among young women were higher than reported case rates throughout the study period. Reported case rates increased over the study period, but adjusted rates declined from 12,900 to 7900 cases per 100,000 person-years between 2000 and 2007. After 2007, adjusted case rates declined to 7500 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2017. Bias from partial screening coverage had a larger impact on case rate magnitude and trend shape than bias from imperfect diagnostic tests or underreporting. CONCLUSIONS: Reported chlamydia case rates may be substantially lower than true chlamydia case rates because of incomplete reporting, imperfect diagnostic tests, and partial screening coverage. Because the magnitude of these biases has declined over time, the differences between reported and adjusted case rates have narrowed, revealing a sharp decline in adjusted case rates even as reported case rates have risen. The decline in adjusted case rates suggests that the rise in reported case rates should not be interpreted strictly as increasing chlamydia incidence, as the observed rise can be explained by improvements in screening coverage, diagnostic tests, and reporting.

Bias testing, bias correction, and confounder selection using an instrumental variable model.

Instrumental variable (IV) analysis can be used to address bias due to unobserved confounding when estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest. However, if a proposed IV is correlated with unmeasured confounders and/or weakly correlated with the treatment, the standard IV estimator may be more biased than an ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. Several methods have been proposed that compare the bias of the IV and OLS estimators relying on the belief that measured covariates can be used as proxies for the unmeasured confounder. Despite these developments, there is lack of discussion about approaches that can be used to formally test whether the IV estimator may be less biased than the OLS estimator. Thus, we have developed a testing framework to compare the bias and a criterion to select informative measured covariates for bias comparison and regression adjustment. We also have developed a bias-correction method, which allows one to use an invalid IV to correct the bias of the OLS or IV estimator. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed methods perform well with realistic sample sizes.