Impact of a scalable training program on the quality of colonoscopy performance and risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopist adenoma detection rates (ADRs) vary widely and are associated with patients' risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancers (PCCRCs). However, few scalable physician-directed interventions demonstrably both improve ADR and reduce PCCRC risk. METHODS: Among patients undergoing colonoscopy, we evaluated the influence of a scalable online training on individual-level ADRs and PCCRC risk. The intervention was a 30-minute, interactive, online training, developed using behavior change theory, to address factors that potentially impede detection of adenomas. Analyses included interrupted time series analyses for pretraining versus posttraining individual-physician ADR changes (adjusted for temporal trends) and Cox regression for associations between ADR changes and patients' PCCRC risk. RESULTS: Across 21 endoscopy centers and all 86 eligible endoscopists, ADRs increased immediately by an absolute 3.13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-4.94) in the 3-month quarter after training compared with .58% per quarter (95% CI, .40-.77) and 0.33% per quarter (95% CI, .16-.49) in the 3-year pretraining and posttraining periods, respectively. Posttraining ADR increases were higher among endoscopists with pretraining ADRs below the median. Among 146,786 posttraining colonoscopies (all indications), each 1% absolute increase in screening ADR posttraining was associated with a 4% decrease in their patients' PCCRC risk (hazard ratio, .96; 95% CI, .93-.99). An ADR increase of ≥10% versus <1% was associated with a 55% reduced risk of PCCRC (hazard ratio, .45; 95% CI, .24-.82). CONCLUSIONS: A scalable, online behavior change training intervention focused on modifiable factors was associated with significant and sustained improvements in ADR, particularly among endoscopists with lower ADRs. These ADR changes were associated with substantial reductions in their patients' risk of PCCRC.

Adults hospitalized with breakthrough COVID-19 have lower mortality than matched unvaccinated adults.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) breakthrough infections are common. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 by vaccination status using retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We generated propensity scores for receipt of full vaccination in adults requiring supplemental oxygen hospitalized at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (1 April 2021 to 30 November 2021) with positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 polymerase chain reaction tests. Optimal matching of fully vaccinated/unvaccinated patients was performed comparing in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Of 7305 patients, 1463 (20.0%) were full, 138 (1.9%) were partial, and 5704 (78.1%) were unvaccinated. Fully vaccinated were older than partial or unvaccinated (71.0, 63.0, and 54.0 years, respectively, p < 0.001) with more comorbidities (Comorbidity Point Scores 33.0, 22.0, and 10.0, p < 0.001) and immunosuppressant (11.5%, 8.7%, and 3.0%, p < 0.001) or chemotherapy exposure (2.8%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, p < 0.001). Fewer fully vaccinated patients died compared to matched unvaccinated (9.0% vs. 16.3%, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Fully vaccinated patients are less likely to die compared to matched unvaccinated patients.

Antibiotic prescribing across age groups in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population in association with different diagnoses, and with influenza incidence, 2010-2018.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis and otitis media). Here, we estimated age/diagnosis-specific proportions of antibiotic prescriptions (fills) for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010-2018 that were influenza-associated. The proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was higher in children aged 5-17 years compared to children aged under 5 years, ranging from 1.4% [95% CI (0.7-2.1)] in aged <1 year to 2.7% (1.9-3.4) in aged 15-17 years. For adults aged over 20 years, the proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was lower, ranging from 0.7% (0.5-1) for aged 25-29 years to 1.6% (1.2-1.9) for aged 60-64 years. Most of the influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing in children aged under 10 years was for ear infections, while for age groups over 25 years, 45-84% of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing was for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication. This suggests a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing antibiotic prescribing, as well as the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication in persons aged over 25 years, both of which may further contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

Prescribing for different antibiotic classes across age groups in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population in association with influenza incidence, 2010-2018.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis). We estimated that for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010-2018, 3.4% (2.8%-4%) of all macrolide prescriptions (fills), 2.7% (2.3%-3.2%) of all aminopenicillin prescriptions, 3.1% (2.4%-3.9%) of all 3rd generation cephalosporins prescriptions, 2.2% (1.8%-2.6%) of all protected aminopenicillin prescriptions and 1.3% (1%-1.6%) of all quinolone prescriptions were influenza-associated. The corresponding proportions were higher for select age groups, e.g. 4.3% of macrolide prescribing in ages over 50 years, 5.1% (3.3%-6.8%) of aminopenicillin prescribing in ages 5-17 years and 3.3% (1.9%-4.6%) in ages <5 years was influenza-associated. The relative contribution of influenza to antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication in ages over 5 years was higher than the corresponding relative contribution to prescribing for all diagnoses. Our results suggest a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing prescribing for the five studied antibiotic classes, particularly for macrolides in ages over 50 years and aminopenicillins in ages <18 years, and the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication, both of which may contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

Association of Physician Adenoma Detection Rates With Postcolonoscopy Colorectal Cancer.

Importance: Although colonoscopy is frequently performed in the United States, there is limited evidence to support threshold values for physician adenoma detection rate as a quality metric. Objective: To evaluate the association between physician adenoma detection rate values and risks of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer and related deaths. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study in 3 large integrated health care systems (Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, and Kaiser Permanente Washington) with 43 endoscopy centers, 383 eligible physicians, and 735 396 patients aged 50 to 75 years who received a colonoscopy that did not detect cancer (negative colonoscopy) between January 2011 and June 2017, with patient follow-up through December 2017. Exposures: The adenoma detection rate of each patient's physician based on screening examinations in the calendar year prior to the patient's negative colonoscopy. Adenoma detection rate was defined as a continuous variable in statistical analyses and was also dichotomized as at or above vs below the median for descriptive analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome (postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer) was tumor registry-verified colorectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed at least 6 months after any negative colonoscopy (all indications). The secondary outcomes included death from postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer. Results: Among 735 396 patients who had 852 624 negative colonoscopies, 440 352 (51.6%) were performed on female patients, median patient age was 61.4 years (IQR, 55.5-67.2 years), median follow-up per patient was 3.25 years (IQR, 1.56-5.01 years), and there were 619 postcolonoscopy colorectal cancers and 36 related deaths during more than 2.4 million person-years of follow-up. The patients of physicians with higher adenoma detection rates had significantly lower risks for postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 per 1% absolute adenoma detection rate increase [95% CI, 0.96-0.98]) and death from postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (HR, 0.95 per 1% absolute adenoma detection rate increase [95% CI, 0.92-0.99]) across a broad range of adenoma detection rate values, with no interaction by sex (P value for interaction = .18). Compared with adenoma detection rates below the median of 28.3%, detection rates at or above the median were significantly associated with a lower risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (1.79 vs 3.10 cases per 10 000 person-years; absolute difference in 7-year risk, -12.2 per 10 000 negative colonoscopies [95% CI, -10.3 to -13.4]; HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52-0.73]) and related deaths (0.05 vs 0.22 cases per 10 000 person-years; absolute difference in 7-year risk, -1.2 per 10 000 negative colonoscopies [95%, CI, -0.80 to -1.69]; HR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.11-0.65]). Conclusions and Relevance: Within 3 large community-based settings, colonoscopies by physicians with higher adenoma detection rates were significantly associated with lower risks of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer across a broad range of adenoma detection rate values. These findings may help inform recommended targets for colonoscopy quality measures.

Long-term Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death After Adenoma Removal in a Large, Community-based Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The long-term risks of colorectal cancer (CRC) and CRC-related death following adenoma removal are uncertain. Data are needed to inform evidence-based surveillance guidelines, which vary in follow-up recommendations for some polyp types. Using data from a large, community-based integrated health care setting, we examined the risks of CRC and related death by baseline colonoscopy adenoma findings. METHODS: Participants at 21 medical centers underwent baseline colonoscopies from 2004 through 2010; findings were categorized as no-adenoma, low-risk adenoma, or high-risk adenoma. Participants were followed until the earliest of CRC diagnosis, death, health plan disenrollment, or December 31, 2017. Risks of CRC and related deaths among the high- and low-risk adenoma groups were compared with the no-adenoma group using Cox regression adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Among 186,046 patients, 64,422 met eligibility criteria (54.3% female; mean age, 61.6 ± 7.1 years; median follow-up time, 8.1 years from the baseline colonoscopy). Compared with the no-adenoma group (45,881 patients), the high-risk adenoma group (7563 patients) had a higher risk of CRC (hazard ratio [HR] 2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.87-3.63) and related death (HR 3.94; 95% CI 1.90-6.56), whereas the low-risk adenoma group (10,978 patients) did not have a significant increase in risk of CRC (HR 1.29; 95% CI 0.89-1.88) or related death (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.19-2.18). CONCLUSIONS: With up to 14 years of follow-up, high-risk adenomas were associated with an increased risk of CRC and related death, supporting early colonoscopy surveillance. Low-risk adenomas were not associated with a significantly increased risk of CRC or related deaths. These results can inform current surveillance guidelines for high- and low-risk adenomas.

Proton Pump Inhibitor Use and Risk of Gastric, Colorectal, Liver, and Pancreatic Cancers in a Community-Based Population.

INTRODUCTION: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly used for gastrointestinal disorders; given they increase the systemic levels of gastrin, a trophic hormone, there is a concern about their carcinogenicity. This study evaluated the association between PPI use and gastrointestinal cancers. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study in a large, community-based integrated healthcare setting. Cases were adults with gastric (n = 1,233), colorectal (n = 18,595), liver (n = 2,329), or pancreatic cancers (n = 567). Each case was matched with up to 10 controls by age, sex, race/ethnicity, medical facility, and enrollment duration. The primary exposure was defined as ≥2-year cumulative PPI supply. Data were obtained from pharmacy, cancer registry, and electronic medical record databases. Associations were evaluated using conditional logistic regression and adjusted for multiple confounders. We also evaluated the cancer risks separately by PPI dose, duration of use, and dose and duration. RESULTS: PPI use of ≥2-years was not associated with the risks of gastric (odds ratio [OR]: 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81-1.42), colorectal (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.99-1.12), liver (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 0.91-1.43), or pancreatic cancers (OR: 1.22, 95% CI: 0.89-1.67), compared to non-users. In exploratory analyses, elevated cancer risks were primarily restricted to those with ≥10 years of PPI use, but no consistent associations were found for increasing PPI dose and/or duration of use. DISCUSSION: PPI use of ≥2 years was not associated with increased risks of gastrointestinal cancers. The cancer risks associated with PPI use of ≥10 years requires further study.

Validity of Privacy-Protecting Analytical Methods That Use Only Aggregate-Level Information to Conduct Multivariable-Adjusted Analysis in Distributed Data Networks.

Distributed data networks enable large-scale epidemiologic studies, but protecting privacy while adequately adjusting for a large number of covariates continues to pose methodological challenges. Using 2 empirical examples within a 3-site distributed data network, we tested combinations of 3 aggregate-level data-sharing approaches (risk-set, summary-table, and effect-estimate), 4 confounding adjustment methods (matching, stratification, inverse probability weighting, and matching weighting), and 2 summary scores (propensity score and disease risk score) for binary and time-to-event outcomes. We assessed the performance of combinations of these data-sharing and adjustment methods by comparing their results with results from the corresponding pooled individual-level data analysis (reference analysis). For both types of outcomes, the method combinations examined yielded results identical or comparable to the reference results in most scenarios. Within each data-sharing approach, comparability between aggregate- and individual-level data analysis depended on adjustment method; for example, risk-set data-sharing with matched or stratified analysis of summary scores produced identical results, while weighted analysis showed some discrepancies. Across the adjustment methods examined, risk-set data-sharing generally performed better, while summary-table and effect-estimate data-sharing more often produced discrepancies in settings with rare outcomes and small sample sizes. Valid multivariable-adjusted analysis can be performed in distributed data networks without sharing of individual-level data.

Effects of Organized Colorectal Cancer Screening on Cancer Incidence and Mortality in a Large Community-Based Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little information is available on the effectiveness of organized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening on screening uptake, incidence, and mortality in community-based populations. METHODS: We contrasted screening rates, age-adjusted annual CRC incidence, and incidence-based mortality rates before (baseline year 2000) and after (through 2015) implementation of organized screening outreach, from 2007 through 2008 (primarily annual fecal immunochemical testing and colonoscopy), in a large community-based population. Among screening-eligible individuals 51-75 years old, we calculated annual up-to-date status for cancer screening (by fecal test, sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy), CRC incidence, cancer stage distributions, and incidence-based mortality. RESULTS: Initiation of organized CRC screening significantly increased the up-to-date status of screening, from 38.9% in 2000 to 82.7% in 2015 (P < .01). Higher rates of screening were associated with a 25.5% reduction in annual CRC incidence between 2000 and 2015, from 95.8 to 71.4 cases/100,000 (P < .01), and a 52.4% reduction in cancer mortality, from 30.9 to 14.7 deaths/100,000 (P < .01). Increased screening was initially associated with increased CRC incidence, due largely to greater detection of early-stage cancers, followed by decreases in cancer incidence. Advanced-stage CRC incidence rates decreased 36.2%, from 45.9 to 29.3 cases/100,000 (P < .01), and early-stage CRC incidence rates decreased 14.5%, from 48.2 to 41.2 cases/100,000 (P < .04). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing an organized CRC screening program in a large community-based population rapidly increased screening participation to the ≥80% target set by national organizations. Screening rates were sustainable and associated with substantial decreases in CRC incidence and mortality within short time intervals, consistent with early detection and cancer prevention.

Intravenous immune globulin and thromboembolic adverse events in patients with hematologic malignancy.

In patients with hypogammaglobulinemia secondary to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or multiple myeloma (MM), intravenous immune globulin (IVIg) may be administered to reduce the risk of infection. Since 2013, IVIg products have carried a boxed safety warning about the risk of thromboembolic events (TEEs), with TEEs reported in 0.5% to 15% of patients treated with IVIg. In this retrospective cohort study of older patients with CLL or MM identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare Linked Database, we assessed rates of clinically serious TEEs in 2724 new users of IVIg and a propensity-matched comparison group of 8035 nonusers. For the primary end point, arterial TEE, we observed a transient increased risk of TEE during the day of an IVIg infusion and the day afterward (hazard ration = 3.40; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25, 9.25); this risk declined over the remainder of the 30-day treatment cycle. When considered in terms of absolute risk averaged over a 1-year treatment period, the increase in risk attributable to IVIg was estimated to be 0.7% (95% CI: -0.2%, 2.0%) compared with a baseline risk of 1.8% for the arterial TEE end point. A statistically nonsignificant risk increase of 0.3% (95% CI: -0.4%, 1.5%) compared with a baseline risk of 1.1% was observed for the venous TEE end point. Further research is needed to establish the generalizability of these results to patients receiving higher doses of IVIg for other indications.

Comparison of privacy-protecting analytic and data-sharing methods: A simulation study.

PURPOSE: Privacy-protecting analytic and data-sharing methods that minimize the disclosure risk of sensitive information are increasingly important due to the growing interest in utilizing data across multiple sources. We conducted a simulation study to examine how avoiding sharing individual-level data in a distributed data network can affect analytic results. METHODS: The base scenario had four sites of varying sizes with 5% outcome incidence, 50% treatment prevalence, and seven confounders. We varied treatment prevalence, outcome incidence, treatment effect, site size, number of sites, and covariate distribution. Confounding adjustment was conducted using propensity score or disease risk score. We compared analyses of three types of aggregate-level data requested from sites: risk-set, summary-table, or effect-estimate data (meta-analysis) with benchmark results of analysis of pooled individual-level data. We assessed bias and precision of hazard ratio estimates as well as the accuracy of standard error estimates. RESULTS: All the aggregate-level data-sharing approaches, regardless of confounding adjustment methods, successfully approximated pooled individual-level data analysis in most simulation scenarios. Meta-analysis showed minor bias when using inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) in infrequent exposure (5%), rare outcome (0.01%), and small site (5,000 patients) settings. SE estimates became less accurate for IPTW risk-set approach with less frequent exposure and for propensity score-matching meta-analysis approach with rare outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found that we can avoid sharing individual-level data and obtain valid results in many settings, although care must be taken with meta-analysis approach in infrequent exposure and rare outcome scenarios, particularly when confounding adjustment is performed with IPTW.

Adenoma detection rate and risk of colorectal cancer and death.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of screening colonoscopic examinations performed by a physician that detect one or more adenomas (the adenoma detection rate) is a recommended quality measure. However, little is known about the association between this rate and patients' risks of a subsequent colorectal cancer (interval cancer) and death. METHODS: Using data from an integrated health care delivery organization, we evaluated the associations between the adenoma detection rate and the risks of colorectal cancer diagnosed 6 months to 10 years after colonoscopy and of cancer-related death. With the use of Cox regression, our estimates of attributable risk were adjusted for the demographic characteristics of the patients, indications for colonoscopy, and coexisting conditions. RESULTS: We evaluated 314,872 colonoscopies performed by 136 gastroenterologists; the adenoma detection rates ranged from 7.4 to 52.5%. During the follow-up period, we identified 712 interval colorectal adenocarcinomas, including 255 advanced-stage cancers, and 147 deaths from interval colorectal cancer. The unadjusted risks of interval cancer according to quintiles of adenoma detection rates, from lowest to highest, were 9.8, 8.6, 8.0, 7.0, and 4.8 cases per 10,000 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Among patients of physicians with adenoma detection rates in the highest quintile, as compared with patients of physicians with detection rates in the lowest quintile, the adjusted hazard ratio for any interval cancer was 0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.69), for advanced-stage interval cancer, 0.43 (95% CI, 0.29 to 0.64), and for fatal interval cancer, 0.38 (95% CI, 0.22 to 0.65). Each 1.0% increase in the adenoma detection rate was associated with a 3.0% decrease in the risk of cancer (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.96 to 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: The adenoma detection rate was inversely associated with the risks of interval colorectal cancer, advanced-stage interval cancer, and fatal interval cancer. (Funded by the Kaiser Permanente Community Benefit program and the National Cancer Institute.).

Risk for Hospitalized Heart Failure Among New Users of Saxagliptin, Sitagliptin, and Other Antihyperglycemic Drugs: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent postmarketing trials produced conflicting results about the risk for hospitalized heart failure (hHF) associated with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, creating uncertainty about the safety of these antihyperglycemic agents. OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of hHF with saxagliptin and sitagliptin. DESIGN: Population-based, retrospective, new-user cohort study. SETTING: 18 health insurance and health system data partners in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Mini-Sentinel program. PATIENTS: Patients aged 18 years or older with type 2 diabetes who initiated therapy with saxagliptin, sitagliptin, pioglitazone, second-generation sulfonylureas, or long-acting insulin products from 2006 to 2013. MEASUREMENTS: Hospitalized HF, identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes 402.x1, 404.x1, 404.x3, and 428.xx recorded as the principal discharge diagnosis. RESULTS: 78 553 saxagliptin users and 298 124 sitagliptin users contributed an average of 7 to 9 months of follow-up data to 1 or more pairwise comparisons. The risk for hHF was not higher with DPP-4 inhibitors than with the other study drugs. The hazard ratios from the disease risk score (DRS)-stratified analyses were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.99) for saxagliptin versus sitagliptin, 0.63 (CI, 0.47 to 0.85) for saxagliptin versus pioglitazone, 0.69 (CI, 0.54 to 0.87) for saxagliptin versus sulfonylureas, and 0.61 (CI, 0.50 to 0.73) for saxagliptin versus insulin. The DRS-stratified hazard ratios were 0.74 (CI, 0.64 to 0.85) for sitagliptin versus pioglitazone, 0.86 (CI, 0.77 to 0.95) for sitagliptin versus sulfonylureas, and 0.71 (CI, 0.64 to 0.78) for sitagliptin versus insulin. Results from the 1:1 propensity score-matched analyses were similar. Results were also similar in subgroups of patients with and without prior cardiovascular disease and in a subgroup defined by the 2 highest DRS deciles. LIMITATION: Residual confounding and short follow-up. CONCLUSION: In this large cohort study, a higher risk for hHF was not observed in users of saxagliptin or sitagliptin compared with other selected antihyperglycemic agents. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Association Between Time to Colonoscopy After a Positive Fecal Test Result and Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Cancer Stage at Diagnosis.

IMPORTANCE: The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is commonly used for colorectal cancer screening and positive test results require follow-up colonoscopy. However, follow-up intervals vary, which may result in neoplastic progression. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate time to colonoscopy after a positive FIT result and its association with risk of colorectal cancer and advanced-stage disease at diagnosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study (January 1, 2010-December 31, 2014) within Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California. Participants were 70 124 patients aged 50 through 70 years eligible for colorectal cancer screening with a positive FIT result who had a follow-up colonoscopy. EXPOSURES: Time (days) to colonoscopy after a positive FIT result. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Risk of any colorectal cancer and advanced-stage disease (defined as stage III and IV cancer). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were adjusted for patient demographics and baseline risk factors. RESULTS: Of the 70 124 patients with positive FIT results (median age, 61 years [IQR, 55-67 years]; men, 52.7%), there were 2191 cases of any colorectal cancer and 601 cases of advanced-stage disease diagnosed. Compared with colonoscopy follow-up within 8 to 30 days (n = 27 176), there were no significant differences between follow-up at 2 months (n = 24 644), 3 months (n = 8666), 4 to 6 months (n = 5251), or 7 to 9 months (n = 1335) for risk of any colorectal cancer (cases per 1000 patients: 8-30 days, 30; 2 months, 28; 3 months, 31; 4-6 months, 31; and 7-9 months, 43) or advanced-stage disease (cases per 1000 patients: 8-30 days, 8; 2 months, 7; 3 months, 7; 4-6 months, 9; and 7-9 months, 13). Risks were significantly higher for examinations at 10 to 12 months (n = 748) for any colorectal cancer (OR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.05-2.08]; 49 cases per 1000 patients) and advanced-stage disease (OR, 1.97 [95% CI, 1.14-3.42]; 19 cases per 1000 patients) and more than 12 months (n = 747) for any colorectal cancer (OR, 2.25 [95% CI, 1.89-2.68]; 76 cases per 1000 patients) and advanced-stage disease (OR, 3.22 [95% CI, 2.44-4.25]; 31 cases per 1000 patients). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with a positive fecal immunochemical test result, compared with follow-up colonoscopy at 8 to 30 days, follow-up after 10 months was associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer and more advanced-stage disease at the time of diagnosis. Further research is needed to assess whether this relationship is causal.

Intravenous immune globulin and thromboembolic adverse events: A systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs.

Prior case reports and observational studies indicate that intravenous immune globulin (IVIg) products may cause thromboembolic events (TEEs), leading the FDA to require a boxed warning in 2013. The effect of IVIg treatment on the risk of serious TEEs (acute myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or venous thromboembolism) was assessed using adverse event data reported in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of IVIg. RCTs of IVIg in adult patients from 1995 to 2015 were identified from Pubmed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.Gov, and two large prior reviews of IVIg's therapeutic applications. Trials at high risk of detection or reporting bias for serious adverse events were excluded. 31 RCTs with a total of 4,129 participants (2,318 IVIg-treated, 1,811 control) were eligible for quantitative synthesis. No evidence was found of increased TEE risk among IVIg-treated patients compared with control patients (odds ratio = 1.10, 95% CI: 0.44, 2.88; risk difference = 0.0%, 95% CI: -0.7%, 0.7%, I(2) = 0%). No significant increase in risk was found when arterial and venous TEEs were analyzed as separate endpoints. Trial publications provided little specific information concerning the methods used to ascertain potential adverse events. Care should be taken in extrapolating the results to patients with higher baseline risks of TEE. Am. J. Hematol. 91:594-605, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A vaccine study design selection framework for the postlicensure rapid immunization safety monitoring program.

The Postlicensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring Program, the vaccination safety monitoring component of the US Food and Drug Administration's Mini-Sentinel project, is currently the largest cohort in the US general population for vaccine safety surveillance. We developed a study design selection framework to provide a roadmap and description of methods that may be utilized to evaluate potential associations between vaccines and health outcomes of interest in the Postlicensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring Program and other systems using administrative data. The strengths and weaknesses of designs for vaccine safety monitoring, including the cohort design, the case-centered design, the risk interval design, the case-control design, the self-controlled risk interval design, the self-controlled case series method, and the case-crossover design, are described and summarized in tabular form. A structured decision table is provided to aid in planning of future vaccine safety monitoring activities, and the data components comprising the structured decision table are delineated. The study design selection framework provides a starting point for planning vaccine safety evaluations using claims-based data sources.

Adjusting for patient demographics has minimal effects on rates of adenoma detection in a large, community-based setting.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Reliable estimates of adenoma detection rates (ADRs) are needed to inform colonoscopy quality standards, yet little is known about the contributions of patient demographics to variation in ADRs. We evaluated the effects of adjusting for patient age, race/ethnicity, and family history of colorectal cancer on variations in ADRs and the relative rank order of physicians. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, we collected data from Kaiser Permanente Northern California members who were ≥ 50 years old who received colonoscopies from 2006 through 2008. We evaluated ADRs (before and after adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and family history of colorectal cancer) for 102 endoscopists who performed 108,662 total colonoscopies and 20,792 screening colonoscopies. Adenomas were identified from the pathology database, and cancers were detected by using the Kaiser Permanente Northern California cancer registry. RESULTS: About two-thirds of examiners had unadjusted ADRs for screening exams that met gastroenterology society guidelines (>25% for men and >15% for women), although rates of detection varied widely (7.7%-61.5% for male patients and 1.7%-45.6% for female patients). Adjusting for case mix reduced the variation in detection rates (from 8-fold to 3-fold for male patients and from 27-fold to 5-fold for female patients), but the median change in physician order by detection rate was just 2 ranks, and few physicians changed quartiles of detection. For example, only 3 of 102 endoscopists moved into and 3 out of the lowest quartile of ADR. CONCLUSIONS: In a community-based setting, most endoscopists met the ADR standards, although there was wide variation in ADRs, which was similar to that reported from academic and referral settings. Case-mix adjustment reduced variability but had only small effects on differences in ADRs between physicians, and only a small percentage of physicians changed quartiles of detection. Adjustments to ADRs are therefore likely only needed in settings in which physicians have very different patient demographics, such as in sex or age. Moderate differences in patient demographics between physicians are unlikely to substantially change rates of adenoma detection.

ADHD drugs and serious cardiovascular events in children and young adults.

BACKGROUND: Adverse-event reports from North America have raised concern that the use of drugs for attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) increases the risk of serious cardiovascular events. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with automated data from four health plans (Tennessee Medicaid, Washington State Medicaid, Kaiser Permanente California, and OptumInsight Epidemiology), with 1,200,438 children and young adults between the ages of 2 and 24 years and 2,579,104 person-years of follow-up, including 373,667 person-years of current use of ADHD drugs. We identified serious cardiovascular events (sudden cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke) from health-plan data and vital records, with end points validated by medical-record review. We estimated the relative risk of end points among current users, as compared with nonusers, with hazard ratios from Cox regression models. RESULTS: Cohort members had 81 serious cardiovascular events (3.1 per 100,000 person-years). Current users of ADHD drugs were not at increased risk for serious cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31 to 1.85). Risk was not increased for any of the individual end points, or for current users as compared with former users (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.72). Alternative analyses addressing several study assumptions also showed no significant association between the use of an ADHD drug and the risk of a study end point. CONCLUSIONS: This large study showed no evidence that current use of an ADHD drug was associated with an increased risk of serious cardiovascular events, although the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval indicated that a doubling of the risk could not be ruled out. However, the absolute magnitude of such an increased risk would be low. (Funded by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the Food and Drug Administration.).

Impact of the PATH Statement on Analysis and Reporting of Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect in Clinical Trials: A Scoping Review.

Background: The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity (PATH) Statement provides guidance for using predictive modeling to identify differences (i.e., heterogeneity) in treatment effects (benefits and harms) among participants in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). It distinguished risk modeling, which uses a multivariable model to predict risk of trial outcome(s) and then examines treatment effects within strata of predicted risk, from effect modeling, which predicts trial outcomes using models that include treatment, individual participant characteristics and interactions of treatment with selected characteristics. Purpose: To describe studies of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) that use predictive modeling in RCT data and cite the PATH Statement. Data Sources: The Cited By functions in PubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science and SCOPUS databases (Jan 7, 2020 - June 5, 2023). Study Selection: 42 reports presenting 45 predictive models. Data Extraction: Double review with adjudication to identify risk and effect modeling and examine consistency with Statement consensus statements. Credibility of HTE findings was assessed using criteria adapted from the Instrument to assess Credibility of Effect Modification Analyses (ICEMAN). Clinical importance of credible HTE findings was also assessed. Data Synthesis: The numbers of reports, especially risk modeling reports, increased year-on-year. Consistency with consensus statements was high, except for two: only 15 of 32 studies with positive overall findings included a risk model; and most effect models explored many candidate covariates with little prior evidence for effect modification. Risk modeling was more likely than effect modeling to identify both credible HTE (14/19 vs 5/26) and clinically important HTE (10/19 vs 4/26). Limitations: Risk of reviewer bias: reviewers assessing credibility and clinical importance were not blinded to adherence to PATH recommendations. Conclusions: The PATH Statement appears to be influencing research practice. Risk modeling often uncovered clinically important HTE; effect modeling was more often exploratory.

Variation of adenoma prevalence by age, sex, race, and colon location in a large population: implications for screening and quality programs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Reliable community-based colorectal adenoma prevalence estimates are needed to inform colonoscopy quality standards and to estimate patient colorectal cancer risks; however, minimal data exist from populations with large numbers of diverse patients and examiners. METHODS: We evaluated the prevalence of adenomas detected by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and colon location among 20,792 Kaiser Permanente Northern California members ≥50 years of age who received a screening colonoscopy examination (102 gastroenterologists, 2006-2008). RESULTS: Prevalence of detected adenomas increased more rapidly with age in the proximal colon (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.05-2.80; 70-74 vs 50-54 years) than in the distal colon (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.63-2.19). Prevalence was higher among men vs women at all ages (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.66-1.89), increasing in men from 25% to 39% at ≥70 years and in women from 15% at 50-54 years to 26% (P < .001). Proximal adenoma prevalence was higher among blacks than whites (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.04-1.54), although total prevalence was similar, including persons <60 years old (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.91-1.50). CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of detected adenomas increases substantially with age and is much higher in men; proximal adenomas are more common among blacks than whites, although the total prevalence and the prevalence for ages <60 years were similar by race. These demographic differences are such that current adenoma detection guidelines may not be valid, without adjustment, for comparing providers serving different populations. The variation in prevalence and location may also have implications for the effectiveness of screening methods in different demographic groups.