Long-Term Mortality of Stroke Survivors in Parakou: 5-Year Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND: The burden of stroke is high in Africa, but few data are available on the long-term outcome of strokes in this area. AIM: We aimed to study the long-term outcome of stroke survivors in Parakou from 2012 to 2018. METHODS OF STUDY: It was a cohort study and included 247 stroke patients admitted to the University Hospital of Parakou from January 1, 2012 to April 30, 2018. Each patient was followed up for at least 1 year. The modified RANKIN scale was used to evaluate patients. Verbal autopsy was used to ascertain the cause of death. The survival probability was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of mortality were estimated using the Cox proportional model and the hazard ratio (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals were determined. The data were analyzed using Stata Software. RESULTS: The mean age was 58.1 ± 13.4 years with a sex ratio of 1.12. Among stroke survivors, the mortality was 10.1% at 3 months, 11.7% at 6 months, 15.4% at 1 year, 21.5% at 3 years, and 23.5% at 5 years. The probability of survival after a stroke was 66.5% at 5 years. Factors associated with mortality were age with adjusted HR 1.4 (1.2-1.7) for each 10 years, male sex with aHR 2.3 (1.2-4.6), history of hypertension with aHR 2.0 (1.0-4.1) and the severity of the initial neurological impairment National Institute of Health Stroke Scale with aHR 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for each 1 point. The main causes of death were recurrent stroke, infectious diseases, and cardiac disease. The proportion of patients with functional disability was 53.8% at 1 year. The quality of life was generally impaired in terms of physical health, personal environment, and finances. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term prognosis of stroke patients in Parakou is poor. It requires urgent action to reduce this burden.

Stroke case fatality in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The burden of stroke is high in sub-Saharan Africa; however, few data are available on long-term mortality. OBJECTIVE: To estimate over one-month stroke case fatality in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed according to meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines (PROSPERO protocol: CRD42020192439), on five electronic databases (PubMed, Science direct, AJOL, EMBASE, and Web of Sciences). We searched all studies on stroke case fatality over one month in sub-Saharan Africa published between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2019. RESULTS: We included 91 studies with a total of 34,362 stroke cases. The one-month pooled stroke case-fatality rate was 24.1% [95% CI: 21.5-27.0] and 33.2% [95% CI: 23.6-44.5] at one year. At three and five years, the case-fatality rates were respectively 40.1% [95% CI: 20.8-63.0] and 39.4% [95% CI: 14.3-71.5] with high heterogeneity. Hemorrhagic stroke was associated with a higher risk of mortality at one month, but ischemic stroke increased the risk of mortality over six months. Diabetes was associated with poor prognosis at 6 and 12 months with odds ratios of 1.64 [95% CI: 1.22-2.20] and 1.85 [1.25-2.75], respectively. CONCLUSION: The stroke case fatality over one month was very high, compared to case fatalities reported in Western countries and can be explained by a weak healthcare systems and vascular risk factors.