Very large fluxes of methane measured above Bolivian seasonal wetlands.

Methane (CH4) mole fractions from the large semiseasonal Llanos de Moxos wetlands (∼70,000 km2) in northern Bolivia were measured by aircraft flights and ground sampling during early March 2019 (late wet season). Daily fluxes of CH4 determined from the measurements using box models and inverse modeling were between 168 (± 50) and 456 (± 145) mg CH4⋅m-2⋅d-1 for the areas overflown, very high compared with those of previous Amazon basin studies. If the seasonality of the CH4 emissions is comparable to other parts of the Amazon Basin, the region could contribute as much as 8% of annual Amazonian CH4 emissions.

Spatial genetic structure in European marbled newts revealed with target enrichment by sequence capture.

European marbled newts come in two species that have abutting ranges. The northern species, Triturus marmoratus, is found in France and the northern part of the Iberian Peninsula, whereas the southern species, T. pygmaeus, is found in the southwestern corner of the Iberian Peninsula. We study the intraspecific genetic differentiation of the group because morphological data show geographical variation and because the Iberian Peninsula is a recognized center of speciation and intraspecific genetic diversity for all kinds of organisms, amphibians included. We use target enrichment by sequence capture to generate c. 7 k nuclear DNA markers. We observe limited genetic exchange between the species, which confirms their distinctiveness. Both species show substantial genetic structuring that is only in part mirrored by morphological variation. Genetically differentiated groups are found in the south (T. marmoratus) and west (T. pygmaeus) of the species ranges. Our observations highlight the position of the Iberian Peninsula as a hotspot for genetic differentiation.

Fitting mathematical functions to extended lactation curves and forecasting late-lactation milk yields of dairy cows.

A 305-d lactation followed by a 60-d dry period has traditionally been considered economically optimal, yet dairy cows in modern intensive dairy systems are frequently dried off while still producing significant quantities of milk. Managing cows for an extended lactation has reported production, welfare, and economic benefits, but not all cows are suitable for an extended lactation. Implementation of an extended lactation strategy on-farm could benefit from use of a decision support system, based on a mathematical lactation model, that can identify suitable cows during early lactation that have a high likelihood of producing above a target milk yield (MY) at 305 d in milk (DIM). Therefore, our objectives were (1) to compare the suitability of 3 commonly used lactation models for modeling extended lactations (Dijkstra, Wood, and Wilmink) in primiparous and multiparous cows under a variety of lactation lengths, and (2) to determine the amount of early-lactation daily MY data needed to accurately forecast MY at d 305 by using the most suitable model and determine whether this is sufficient for identifying cows suitable for an extended lactation before the end of a typical voluntary waiting period (50-90 d). Daily MY data from 467 individual Holstein-Friesian lactations (DIM >305 d; 379 ± 65-d lactation length [mean ± SD]) were fitted by the 3 lactation models using a nonlinear regression procedure. The parameter estimates of these models, lactation characteristics (peak yield, time to peak yield, and persistency), and goodness-of-fit were compared between parity and different lactation lengths. The models had similar performance, and differences between parity groups were consistent with previous literature. Then, data from only the first i DIM for each individual lactation, where i was incremented by 30 d from 30 to 150 DIM and by 50 d from 150 to 300 DIM, were fitted by each model to forecast MY at d 305. The Dijkstra model was selected for further analysis, as it had superior goodness-of-fit statistics for i= 30 and 60. The data set was fit twice by the Dijkstra model, with parameter bounds either unconstrained or constrained. The quality of predictions of MY at d 305 improved with increasing data availability for both models and assisting the model fitting procedure with more biologically relevant constraints on parameters improved the predictions, but neither was reliable enough for practical use on-farm due to the high uncertainty of forecasted predictions. Using 90 d of data, the constrained model correctly classified 66% of lactations as being above or below a target MY at d 305 of 25 kg/d, with a probability threshold of 0.95. The proportion of correct classifications became smaller at lower targets of MY at d 305 and became greater when using more lactation days. Overall, further work is required to develop a model that can forecast late-lactation MY with sufficient accuracy for practical use. We envisage that a hybridized machine learning and mechanistic model that incorporates additional historical and genetic information with early-lactation MY could produce meaningful lactation curve forecasts.

Comparison of nonlinear functions to describe lactation curves for cumulative milk production in buffalo.

The aim of this study was to examine the suitability of different growth functions (linear, sinusoidal, Gompertz, Schumacher and Richards) to fit cumulative milk production data from buffalo cows. Cumulative milk production at each day in milk was calculated from two published datasets reporting (i) fortnightly test-day milk yield records of the first lactation of Murrah buffalo that had calved during 1977-2012 and (ii) the first lactation records of Jaffarabadi buffalo collected from history-cum-pedigree registers for each quinquennium between 1991 and 2010. Each function was fitted to the lactation curves using nonlinear regression procedures. The Richards and sinusoidal equations provided the smallest root mean square error values, Akaike's and Bayesian information criteria and, therefore, the best fit for the cumulative lactation curves for milk yield. The Richards equation appeared to provide the most accurate estimate of the cumulative milk production at peak milk yield. Sinusoidal and flexible classical growth functions are appropriate to describe cumulative milk production curves and estimate lactation traits in buffalo.

Is the destruction or removal of atmospheric methane a worthwhile option?

Removing methane from the air is possible, but do the costs outweigh the benefits? This note explores the question of whether removing methane from the atmosphere is justifiable. Destruction of methane by oxidation to CO2 eliminates 97% of the warming impact on a 100-yr time scale. Methane can be oxidized by a variety of methods including thermal or ultraviolet photocatalysis and various processes of physical, chemical or biological oxidizers. Each removal method has energy costs (with the risk of causing embedded CO2 emission that cancel the global warming gain), but in specific circumstances, including settings where air with high methane is habitually present, removal may be competitive with direct efforts to cut fugitive methane leaks. In all cases however, great care must be taken to ensure that the destruction has a net positive impact on the total global warming, and that the resources required would not be better used for stopping the methane from being emitted. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Airborne quantification of net methane and carbon dioxide fluxes from European Arctic wetlands in Summer 2019.

Arctic wetlands and surrounding ecosystems are both a significant source of methane (CH4) and a sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) during summer months. However, precise quantification of this regional CH4 source and CO2 sink remains poorly characterized. A research flight using the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement was conducted in July 2019 over an area (approx. 78 000 km2) of mixed peatland and forest in northern Sweden and Finland. Area-averaged fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide were calculated using an aircraft mass balance approach. Net CH4 fluxes normalized to wetland area ranged between 5.93 ± 1.87 mg m-2 h-1 and 4.44 ± 0.64 mg m-2 h-1 (largest to smallest) over the region with a meridional gradient across three discrete areas enclosed by the flight survey. From largest to smallest, net CO2 sinks ranged between -513 ± 74 mg m-2 h-1 and -284 ± 89 mg m-2 h-1 and result from net uptake of CO2 by vegetation and soils in the biosphere. A clear gradient of decreasing bulk and area-averaged CH4 flux was identified from north to south across the study region, correlated with decreasing peat bog land area from north to south identified from CORINE land cover classifications. While N2O mole fraction was measured, no discernible gradient was measured over the flight track, but a minimum flux threshold using this mass balance method was calculated. Bulk (total area) CH4 fluxes determined via mass balance were compared with area-weighted upscaled chamber fluxes from the same study area and were found to agree well within measurement uncertainty. The mass balance CH4 fluxes were found to be significantly higher than the CH4 fluxes reported by many land-surface process models compiled as part of the Global Carbon Project. There was high variability in both flux distribution and magnitude between the individual models. This further supports previous studies that suggest that land-surface models are currently ill-equipped to accurately capture carbon fluxes inthe region. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

δ13C methane source signatures from tropical wetland and rice field emissions.

The atmospheric methane (CH4) burden is rising sharply, but the causes are still not well understood. One factor of uncertainty is the importance of tropical CH4 emissions into the global mix. Isotopic signatures of major sources remain poorly constrained, despite their usefulness in constraining the global methane budget. Here, a collection of new δ13CCH4 signatures is presented for a range of tropical wetlands and rice fields determined from air samples collected during campaigns from 2016 to 2020. Long-term monitoring of δ13CCH4 in ambient air has been conducted at the Chacaltaya observatory, Bolivia and Southern Botswana. Both long-term records are dominated by biogenic CH4 sources, with isotopic signatures expected from wetland sources. From the longer-term Bolivian record, a seasonal isotopic shift is observed corresponding to wetland extent suggesting that there is input of relatively isotopically light CH4 to the atmosphere during periods of reduced wetland extent. This new data expands the geographical extent and range of measurements of tropical wetland and rice δ13CCH4 sources and hints at significant seasonal variation in tropical wetland δ13CCH4 signatures which may be important to capture in future global and regional models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Isotopic signatures of methane emissions from tropical fires, agriculture and wetlands: the MOYA and ZWAMPS flights.

We report methane isotopologue data from aircraft and ground measurements in Africa and South America. Aircraft campaigns sampled strong methane fluxes over tropical papyrus wetlands in the Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins, herbaceous wetlands in Bolivian southern Amazonia, and over fires in African woodland, cropland and savannah grassland. Measured methane δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures were in the range -55 to -49‰ for emissions from equatorial Nile wetlands and agricultural areas, but widely -60 ± 1‰ from Upper Congo and Zambezi wetlands. Very similar δ13CCH4 signatures were measured over the Amazonian wetlands of NE Bolivia (around -59‰) and the overall δ13CCH4 signature from outer tropical wetlands in the southern Upper Congo and Upper Amazon drainage plotted together was -59 ± 2‰. These results were more negative than expected. For African cattle, δ13CCH4 values were around -60 to -50‰. Isotopic ratios in methane emitted by tropical fires depended on the C3 : C4 ratio of the biomass fuel. In smoke from tropical C3 dry forest fires in Senegal, δ13CCH4 values were around -28‰. By contrast, African C4 tropical grass fire δ13CCH4 values were -16 to -12‰. Methane from urban landfills in Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have frequent waste fires, had δ13CCH4 around -37 to -36‰. These new isotopic values help improve isotopic constraints on global methane budget models because atmospheric δ13CCH4 values predicted by global atmospheric models are highly sensitive to the δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures applied to tropical wetland emissions. Field and aircraft campaigns also observed widespread regional smoke pollution over Africa, in both the wet and dry seasons, and large urban pollution plumes. The work highlights the need to understand tropical greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the goals of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and to help reduce air pollution over wide regions of Africa. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Modelling growth in dairy heifers based on linear body measurements (withers height) using non-linear functions.

This research communication reports a study to model the growth curves for withers height (WH) and body weight (BW) to withers height ratio (BW:WH) using monthly records (from 1 to 24 months of age) for three breeds of dairy heifer (Holstein, Jersey and Brown Swiss). The data sets used were those reported by the Dairy Heifer Evaluation Project of Penn State Extension (USA) between 1991 and 1992. Four growth functions (monomolecular and Michaelis-Menten, both with diminishing returns behaviour, and Schumacher and López, both with asymptotic sigmoidal behaviour) were fitted using the non-linear regression procedure of the SigmaPlot software and the parameters estimated. The models were judged for goodness of fit using adjusted coefficient of determination ($R_{{\rm adj}}^2 $), root mean square error (RMSE), Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Assessing the goodness of fit by $R_{{\rm adj}}^2 $ (>0.99 in all cases) reveals the generally appropriate fit of the models to the data. The non-sigmoidal functions (i.e. Michaelis-Menten and monomolecular) provided the best fits giving the lowest values of RMSE, AIC and BIC. Based on the chosen statistical criteria, the Schumacher and López equations provided acceptable fits to the WH and BW:WH growth curves, but showed points of inflexion at times before birth, indicating that these growth curves are not sigmoidal. In conclusion, evaluation of the different non-linear growth functions used in this study indicated their potential for modelling growth patterns in dairy heifers.

Investigating the Uptake and Fate of Poly- and Perfluoroalkylated Substances (PFAS) in Sea Ice Using an Experimental Sea Ice Chamber.

Poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are contaminants of emerging Arctic concern and are present in the marine environments of the polar regions. Their input to and fate within the marine cryosphere are poorly understood. We conducted a series of laboratory experiments to investigate the uptake, distribution, and release of 10 PFAS of varying carbon chain length (C4-C12) in young sea ice grown from artificial seawater (NaClsolution). We show that PFAS are incorporated into bulk sea ice during ice formation and regression analyses for individual PFAS concentrations in bulk sea ice were linearly related to salinity (r2 = 0.30 to 0.88, n = 18, p < 0.05). This shows that their distribution is strongly governed by the presence and dynamics of brine (high salinity water) within the sea ice. Furthermore, long-chain PFAS (C8-C12), were enriched in bulk ice up to 3-fold more than short-chain PFAS (C4-C7) and NaCl. This suggests that chemical partitioning of PFAS between the different phases of sea ice also plays a role in their uptake during its formation. During sea ice melt, initial meltwater fractions were highly saline and predominantly contained short-chain PFAS, whereas the later, fresher meltwater fractions predominantly contained long-chain PFAS. Our results demonstrate that in highly saline parts of sea ice (near the upper and lower interfaces and in brine channels) significant chemical enrichment (ε) of PFAS can occur with concentrations in brine channels greatly exceeding those in seawater from which it forms (e.g., for PFOA, εbrine = 10 ± 4). This observation has implications for biological exposure to PFAS present in brine channels, a common feature of first-year sea ice which is the dominant ice type in a warming Arctic.

Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero.

The causes of methane's renewed rise since 2007, accelerated growth from 2014 and record rise in 2020, concurrent with an isotopic shift to values more depleted in 13C, remain poorly understood. This rise is the dominant departure from greenhouse gas scenarios that limit global heating to less than 2°C. Thus a comprehensive understanding of methane sources and sinks, their trends and inter-annual variations are becoming more urgent. Efforts to quantify both sources and sinks and understand latitudinal and seasonal variations will improve our understanding of the methane cycle and its anthropogenic component. Nationally declared emissions inventories under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and promised contributions to emissions reductions under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement need to be verified independently by top-down observation. Furthermore, indirect effects on natural emissions, such as changes in aquatic ecosystems, also need to be quantified. Nitrous oxide is even more poorly understood. Despite this, options for mitigating methane and nitrous oxide emissions are improving rapidly, both in cutting emissions from gas, oil and coal extraction and use, and also from agricultural and waste sources. Reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emission are arguably among the most attractive immediate options for climate action. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Introducing a sinusoidal equation to describe lactation curves for cumulative milk yield and composition in Holstein cows.

The aim of the work reported here was to investigate the appropriateness of a sinusoidal function by applying it to model the cumulative lactation curves for milk yield and composition in primiparous Holstein cows, and to compare it with three conventional growth models (linear, Richards and Morgan). Data used in this study were 911 144 test-day records for milk, fat and protein yields, which were recorded on 834 dairy herds from 2000 to 2011 by the Animal Breeding Centre and Promotion of Animal Products of Iran. Each function was fitted to the test-day production records using appropriate procedures in SAS (PROC REG for the linear model and PROC NLIN for the Richards, Morgan and sinusoidal equations) and the parameters were estimated. The models were tested for goodness of fit using adjusted coefficient of determination $\lpar {R_{{\rm adj}}^2 } \rpar $, root mean square error (RMSE), Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). $R_{{\rm adj}}^2 $ values were generally high (>0.999), implying suitable fits to the data, and showed little differences among the models for cumulative yields. The sinusoidal equation provided the lowest values of RMSE, AIC and BIC, and therefore the best fit to the lactation curve for cumulative milk, fat and protein yields. The linear model gave the poorest fit to the cumulative lactation curve for all production traits. The current results show that classical growth functions can be fitted accurately to cumulative lactation curves for production traits, but the new sinusoidal equation introduced herein, by providing best goodness of fit, can be considered a useful alternative to conventional models in dairy research.

Elementary functions modified for seasonal effects to describe growth in freshwater fish✰.

Two models were derived to describe fish growth while accounting for the effects of fluctuating water temperatures. The models were initially expressed in a rate:state form and subsequently integrated resulting in two analytical solutions, representing two distinct types of growth: exponential (Model 1) and asymptotic (Model 2). Both models share the assumptions that growth machinery works at a rate which varies with water temperature and that growth is irreversible. In addition, in Model 1 it is assumed that quantity of growth machinery is proportional to live body weight and substrate is non-limiting over the period of growth; whereas Model 2 is based on the assumption that quantity of growth machinery is proportional to available substrate. Effects of seasonal variations in water temperature on fish growth are represented in both models by a sinusoidal function. The potential of these models was investigated through their ability to describe growth in eight datasets encompassing three species: European bullhead (Cottus gobio), brown trout (Salmo trutta) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Models were evaluated using statistical measures of goodness-of-fit and through the analysis of residuals. Of the eight datasets, six displayed asymptotic growth while the other two exhibited exponential growth. Both models yield suitable simple growth functions with acceptable goodness-of-fit to fish growth curves under fluctuating water temperatures. However, Model 1, representing exponential growth, shows limited ability to predict fish size (length) when growth curves follow a clear asymptotic trend. This study enforces the idea that a given model is not always superior to another and that data structure and underlying model assumptions must be considered in model selection.

Mechanistic Insight into the Uptake and Fate of Persistent Organic Pollutants in Sea Ice.

The fate of persistent organic pollutants in sea ice is a poorly researched area and yet ice serves as an important habitat for organisms at the base of the marine foodweb. This study presents laboratory-controlled experiments to investigate the mechanisms governing the fate of organic contaminants in sea ice grown from artificial seawater. Sea ice formation was shown to result in the entrainment of chemicals from seawater, and concentration profiles in bulk ice generally showed the highest levels in both the upper (ice-atmosphere interface) and lower (ice-ocean interface) ice layers, suggesting their incorporation and distribution is influenced by brine advection. Results from a 1-D sea ice brine dynamics model supported this, but also indicated that other processes may be needed to accurately model low-polarity compounds in sea ice. This was reinforced by results from a melt experiment, which not only showed chemicals were more enriched in saltier brine, but also revealed that chemicals are released from sea ice at variable rates. We use our results to demonstrate the importance of processes related to the occurrence and movement of brine for controlling chemical fate in sea ice which provides a pathway for exposure to ice-associated biota at the base of the pelagic food web.

Exploration of bimodal kinetics in marker digesta outflows using compartmental models.

A deterministic compartmental model is developed for examining the dynamics of digesta marker outflows in animals, focussing on models which will simulate bimodal kinetics with two peaks in the time course of marker outflow. First, to establish the background to the subsequent modelling of bimodal flow, we examine the compartmental scheme which gives rise mechanistically to the gamma function, and derive or describe various useful properties. This is illustrated by varying two key parameters of the gamma function, n (the number of compartments), and k (the rate constant for compartment emptying). Next, a more articulated compartmental scheme is constructed, and by progressive parameter changes, it is shown how bimodal faecal marker outflow can be achieved. Last, progressive simplification is applied to this scheme to arrive at what is (hopefully) the simplest compartmental scheme which can be used to simulate bimodal kinetics. This may be used mechanistically to describe the role of digesta flow in animals which exhibit such characteristics.

Further assessment of the protozoal contribution to the nutrition of the ruminant animal.

The flow of protozoa from the reticulo-rumen is lower than expected, due to ability of protozoa to prevent washout through sequestration on feed particles and the rumen epithelium. In order to estimate the distribution of protozoa within the reticulo-rumen and passage to the omasum, Czerkawski (1987) developed a model containing pools for the rumen liquid phase, rumen solid phase, and the omasum. This model was used to estimate loss of protozoa in the omasum as well as the amount of protozoal protein available to the animal in the lower gut. A number of assumptions were incorporated into the model, some of which appear unsupported by current research. This paper represents an update, revision, and re-evaluation of Czerkawski's model, where the assumptions that all protozoa in the 'attached' phase are in solid digesta, and that protozoa only leave the rumen in the liquid, have been relaxed. Therefore, the revised model allows for sequestration of protozoa on the rumen epithelium and protozoal passage with particulate outflow. Using experimental observations with inputs within biological limits, the revised model and Czerkawski's original model were verified. The effect of diet on the model was then assessed using inputs from a 100% forage diet and a 35-65% concentrate diet. The extent of sequestration was also varied from complete sequestration, to partial sequestration, and no sequestration. A sensitivity analysis was conducted through a linear regression of perturbed mean inputs versus outputs. The results from the revised model indicate that within the reticulo-rumen, the concentrate diet has a greater fractional flow rate of protozoa from the liquid to solid phase, but a lesser fractional flow rate back to the liquid phase, compared to the forage diet. As well, the concentrate diet has a slower net growth rate of protozoa in the attached phase, compared to the forage diet. In the omasum, the forage diet has a less negative net growth rate, compared to the concentrate diet. The forage diet was also associated with smaller loss of protozoa from the omasum. There are limited data from the omasum to be incorporated into the revised model, especially for quantity of protozoa in the omasum. Further research on quantification of protozoa in the omasum could strengthen the predictions made by the model. Despite this, the revised model found a loss of protozoa in the omasum similar to that suggested by Czerkawski's original model 65-73% versus 66%. The revised model results indicate that efforts to increase protozoal flow to the duodenum should focus on reduced sequestration and increased outflow rate from the rumen, although more research is needed to quantify protozoa in the omasum, and to investigate the role of sequestration onto the wall of the reticulo-rumen.