Examining the relationship between heatwaves and fatal drowning: a case study from Queensland, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Globally, drowning is a leading cause of injury-related harm, which is heavily impacted by environmental conditions. In Australia, fatal unintentional drowning peaks in summer, yet the impact of prolonged periods of hot weather (heatwave) on fatal drowning has not previously been explored. METHODS: Using a case-crossover approach, we examined the difference in drowning risk between heatwave and non-heatwave days for the Australian state of Queensland from 2010 to 2019. Heatwave data, measured by the excess heat factor, were acquired from the Bureau of Meteorology. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated by sex, age of drowning decedent, category of drowning incident (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes) and heatwave severity. Excess drowning mortality during heatwaves was also calculated. RESULTS: Analyses reveal increased fatal drowning risk during heatwave for males (IRR 1.22, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.61), people aged 65+ years (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.24), unintentional drowning (IRR 1.28, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.69) and during severe heatwaves (IRR 1.26, 95% CI0.88 to 1.82). There were 13 excess drowning deaths due to heatwave over the study period. DISCUSSION: The findings confirm an increased risk of fatal drowning during heatwaves. With increased likelihood and severity of heatwaves, this information should be used to inform drowning prevention, in particular the timing of public awareness campaigns and patrolling of supervised aquatic locations. CONCLUSIONS: Water safety and patrolling organisations, as well as first responders, need to prepare for more drowning deaths during heatwave conditions. In addition, drowning prevention education ahead of heatwaves is needed for recreational swimmers, and older people, particularly those with comorbidities which may be further exacerbated by a heatwave.

Burden of unintentional drowning in China from 1990 to 2019 and exposure to water: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

BACKGROUND: Drowning is an important contributor to the burden of deaths in China. Exposure to open water is a risk factor for drowning, but few studies quantify its impact on drowning. The purpose of this study was to provide an up-to-date analysis of unintentional drowning in China, including impact of exposure to open water. METHODS: Chinese provincial data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 were used to describe the burden of unintentional drowning in 33 provinces and changes from 1990 to 2019. Provincial outdoor open water resource data were used to explore the relationship between outdoor open water resources and drowning burden using K-median clustering analysis. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the unintentional drowning incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALY) rates declined by 31.2%, 68.6% and 74.9%, respectively, with differences by age, sex and province. In 2019, the DALY rate for drowning was relatively higher in children under 20 year, the elderly over 80 years than other age groups and was relatively higher in men. There was no statistical difference in overall incidence rate by sex. Provincial differences in unintentional drowning burden show a positive relationship with the availability and size of outdoor open water. CONCLUSIONS: As expected availability of water increases drowning risk. There is a need to address drowning environmental risk especially among children and the elderly. Localised water safety plans which consider drowning burden and environmental risk factors are needed in China to ensure a sustained decline of unintentional drowning.

Burden of unintentional drowning in Indonesia: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: A high burden of unintentional fatal drowning has been reported in low- and middle-income countries. However, little is known about unintentional drowning in Indonesia. METHODS: This population-based retrospective cohort study analysed unintentional drowning data for Indonesia sourced from The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Estimates of trends, mortality rates, incidence rates, years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability adjusted life years were generated. RESULTS: A decline in unintentional drowning mortality rates was observed, with an average annual mortality rate of 2.58/100 000. Males were 1.81 (95% CI 1.79 to 1.84) times more likely than females to unintentionally drown. Average annual mortality rates were highest among the under-5 age group (9.67/100 000) and 70 and over (5.71/100 000 for males; 5.14/100 000 for females). Distributions of drowning deaths vary depending on region, with mortality rates higher in Papua, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Sumatra and Nusa Tenggara regions. DISCUSSION: While a decline in drowning mortality rates in Indonesia was identified between 2005 and 2019, mortality rates for unintentional drowning remained high among children under 5 years, the elderly population and those residing in Papua, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Sumatra and Nusa Tenggara, warranting further focused attention. CONCLUSION: A downward trend in the rate of unintentional drowning deaths in Indonesia is observed from 2005 onwards, with risk variation based on age, gender and region. The findings highlight the importance of addressing drowning as a cause of premature mortality and health system burden in Indonesia, including through enhancing drowning data collection systems and identifying drowning risk factors.

Trends in drowning mortality in Portugal from 1992 to 2019: comparing Global Burden of Disease and national data.

INTRODUCTION: Imprecise data systems hinder understanding of drowning burden, even in high-income countries like Portugal, that have a well-implemented death certificate system. Consequently, national studies on drowning mortality are scarce. We aimed to explore drowning mortality in Portugal using national data and to compare these to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates. METHODS: Data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) for 1992-2019, using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 codes, by sex, age group and cause (unintentional; water transport and intentional). GBD unintentional drowning data were obtained online. Age-standardised drowning rates were calculated and compared. RESULTS: INE data showed 6057 drowning deaths, 4327 classified as unintentional (75.2% male; 36.7% 35-64 years; 31.5% 65+years; 15.2% 0-19 years). Following 2001, an increase in accidental drowning mortality and corresponding decrease in undetermined intent was observed, coincident with Portugal's ICD-10 implementation. GBD modelled estimates followed a downward trend at an overall rate of decrease of -0.41/decade (95% CI (-0.45 to -0.37); R2 adj=0.94; p<0.05). Conversely, INE data showed an increase in the rate of drowning deaths over the last decade (0.35/decade; 95% CI (-0.18 to 0.89)). GBD estimates were significantly different from the INE dataset (alpha=0.05), either underestimating as much as 0.567*INE in 1996 or overestimating as much as 1.473*INE in 2011. CONCLUSIONS: While GBD mortality data estimates are valuable in the absence of routinely collected data, they smooth variations, concealing key advocacy opportunities. Investment in country-level drowning registries enables in-depth analysis of incident circumstances. Such data are essential to informing National Water Safety Plans.

Identifying a gap in drowning prevention: high-risk populations.

INTRODUCTION: Some populations have been less susceptible to reductions in drowning than others. It has been hypothesised that this is due to prevention strategies failing to account for the influence of social determinants (such as ethnicity, socioeconomic status). Populations such as ethnic minorities have been over-represented in injury statistics, however this is not well explored in drowning. This study aims to identify high-risk populations for drowning, risk factors and prevention strategies. METHODS: A literature review undertaken systematically using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses approach was conducted of peer-reviewed literature in English, published between 1990 and 2018 from high-income countries. Search terms included drowning, water safety, ethnic minority, migrant, and culturally diverse. RESULTS: In total, 35 articles were included. High-risk populations identified were: ethnic minorities, First Nations/Aboriginal people, migrants and rural residents. Over half (51%) focused on children (0-18 years). Risk factors included social determinants, swimming ability and knowledge, attitudes and behaviour. Four intervention studies were found; two focused on upskilling adults from high-risk populations to increase employment opportunities within the aquatic industry; an evaluation of a 10-year rock fishing safety education project and a learn-to-swim programme for minority children. Proposed prevention strategies included education, practical skills, research, policy and engagement. DISCUSSION: Limited literature exists pertaining to drowning among adults from high-risk populations. There is a need to increase the sophistication of drowning prevention strategies addressing the disparities in drowning from a culturally appropriate perspective. Acknowledging the role of the social determinants of health in drowning prevention is essential in order to improve drowning outcomes for high-risk populations globally.

The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.

BACKGROUND: Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. RESULTS: Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.

Ceiling fan head injury to children in an Australian tropical location.

AIM: To explore clinical aspects of head injuries caused by ceiling fans in children. METHODS: Cases were identified using a sensitive search strategy of the Townsville Emergency Department information system from 1 December 2005 to 30 April 2010, and a retrospective structured medical record review was undertaken. RESULTS: During the study period there were 136 presentations with relevant injuries, with a higher incidence in the warmer months. There were three common mechanisms; those related to ingress and egress from bunk beds, children lifted by an adult, and children jumping from a piece of furniture. Aside from lacerations, the majority of children had unremarkable history and examination findings. There were 29 Computed Tomography (CT) scans of the head performed, four skull X-rays and no c-spine imaging. Forty-six children received sedation or anaesthesia as part of their management, 38 in the Emergency Department and eight in the operating theatre. Seven children sustained skull fractures and a total of 13 children were admitted to hospital for an average length of stay of 2.3 days. CONCLUSIONS: Ceiling fans are a small but important source of paediatric head injury in tropical Australia. Significant injuries are possible with 5% of patients having a positive finding on CT scan. Most fractures are palpable, CT is recommended if fracture cannot be confidently excluded clinically.

Addressing gaps in our understanding of the drowning patient: a protocol for the retrospective development of an Utstein style database and multicentre collaboration.

INTRODUCTION: This retrospective observational study aims to create a comprehensive database of the circumstances of drowning (including care provided and outcomes of care) to report against the Utstein style for drowning (USFD) for patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Four areas will be examined: a feasibility study of the USFD; a comparison of classification and prognostication systems; examination of indications and efficacy of different ventilation strategies; and differences in the circumstances, severity, treatment and outcomes of drowning by sex and gender. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol outlines retrospective data collection for all patients presenting to EDs of the Sunshine Coast Hospital and Health Service in Queensland, Australia with the presenting problem or discharge diagnosis of drowning or immersion between 2015 and 2022. Patients computerised health records (emergency medical service record, pathology, radiology results, medical and nursing notes for ED, inpatient units and intensive care units) will be used to extract data for entry into an USFD database. Descriptive (eg, median, IQR) and inferential statistical analyses (eg, analysis of variance) will be used to answer the separate research questions. Development of an International Drowning Registry using the USFD dataset and the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) web application is discussed. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by Metro North Human Research and Ethics Committee (Project No: 49754) and James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (H8014). It has been endorsed by national drowning prevention organisations Royal Life Saving Society Australia (RLSSA) and Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA). Study findings will provide data to better inform clinical management of drowning patients and provide an evidence base on sex and gender differences in drowning. Results will be disseminated through peer review publications, conference presentations and media releases. Results will also be disseminated through RLSSA and SLSA membership of the Australian and New Zealand Resuscitation Council and the Australian Water Safety Council.

Application of the PRECEDE-PROCEED model in the development of evidence-informed interventions for drowning prevention: a mixed-methods study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Drowning is a global public health threat, disproportionately impacting low-income and middle-income countries. In the Philippines, it is estimated that more than 5200 people die from drowning per annum. This number is likely to be higher than currently estimated with the inclusion of disaster-related and transportation-related drowning. Drowning is preventable if appropriate preventive interventions are put in place which redress known risk factors. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study uses the PRECEDE-PROCEED model (PPM), an eight-step health promotion planning and evaluation model for building and improving intervention programmes. This mixed-methods study, which can be used in any location, will be implemented in Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines, identified as an area of concern for drowning. Using the PPM, data on drowning will be collected from death records, community observation, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and community survey. A range of analytical methods will be used to explore drowning data including univariate and χ2 analyses, analysis of variance, relative risk and calculating rates using population data. The quantitative data and themes drawn from qualitative data will be used to populate the first four phases of the PPM. Following the data collection, the remaining stages of the PPM will be designed and implemented in the barangay (village) with the highest drowning rate. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has obtained ethical clearance from the University of the Philippines Manila Research Ethics Board (UPMREB 2017-425-01). Study findings will be disseminated through workshops and presentations to the local community as well as through peer-reviewed literature and conference presentations. The PPM has rarely been applied to drowning prevention and it is the aim that the study described in this protocol is expanded across other areas of the Philippines and to other countries with a high drowning burden to inform prevention efforts.

Emergency Department Presentations following Tropical Cyclone Yasi.

INTRODUCTION: Emergency departments see an increase in cases during cyclones. The aim of this study is to describe patient presentations to the Emergency Department (ED) of a tertiary level hospital (Townsville) following a tropical cyclone (Yasi). Specific areas of focus include changes in: patient demographics (age and gender), triage categories, and classification of diseases. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Townsville Hospitals ED information system (EDIS) for three periods in 2009, 2010 and 2011 to coincide with formation of Cyclone Yasi (31 January 2011) to six days after Yasi crossed the coast line (8 February 2012). The analysis explored the changes in ICD10-AM 4-character classification and presented at the Chapter level. RESULTS: There was a marked increase in the number of patients attending the ED during Yasi, particularly those aged over 65 years with a maximum daily attendance of 372 patients on 4 Feb 2011. The most marked increases were in: Triage categories--4 and 5; and ICD categories--diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue (L00-L99), and factors influencing health care status (Z00-Z99). The most common diagnostic presentation across all years was injury (S00-T98). DISCUSSION: There was an increase in presentations to the ED of TTH, which peaked in the first 24-48 hours following the cyclone and returned to normal over a five-day period. The changes in presentations were mostly an amplification of normal attendance patterns with some altered areas of activity. Injury patterns are similar to overseas experience.