Prediction of reported monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Hainan Province of China based on SARIMA-BPNN model.

In recent years, the incidence of hepatitis B has been serious in Hainan Province of China. To construct a statistical model of the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Hainan Province of China and predict the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in 2022. Simple central moving average method and seasonal index were used to analyze the trend and seasonal effects of monthly incidence of hepatitis B. Based on the time series of reported monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Hainan Province from 2017 to 2020, a multiplicative seasonal model (SARIMA), multiplicative seasonal model combined with error back propagation neural network model (SARIMA-BPNN), and a gray prediction model were constructed to fit the incidence, and the time series of monthly incidence of hepatitis B in 2021 was used to verify the accuracy of models. The lowest and highest monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Hainan Province were in February and August, respectively, and MAPE of SARIMA, SARIMA-BPNN, and gray prediction models were 0.089, 0.087, and 0.316, respectively. The best fitting model is the SARIMA-BPNN model. The predicted monthly incidence of hepatitis B in 2022 showed a downward trend, with the steepest decline in March, which indicates that the prevention and control of hepatitis B in Hainan Province is effective, and the study can provide scientific and reasonable suggestions for the prevention and control of hepatitis B in Hainan.

Retrospective study of the immunogenicity and safety of the CoronaVac SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in people with underlying medical conditions.

BACKGROUND: People living with chronic disease, particularly seniors (≥60 years old), made up of most severe symptom and death cases among SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. However, they are lagging behind in the national COVID-19 vaccination campaign in China due to the uncertainty of vaccine safety and effectiveness. Safety and immunogenicity data of COVID-19 vaccines in people with underlying medical conditions are needed to address the vaccine hesitation in this population. METHODS: We included participants (≥40 years old) who received two doses of CoronaVac inactivated vaccines (at a 3-5 week interval) and were healthy or had at least one of 6 common chronic diseases. The incidence of adverse events after vaccination was monitored. Vaccine immunogenicity was studied by determining neutralizing antibodies and SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses post vaccination. RESULTS: Here we show that chronic diseases are associated with a higher rate of mild fatigue following the first dose of CoronaVac. By day 14-28 post vaccination, the neutralizing antibody level shows no significant difference between disease groups and healthy controls, except for people with coronary artery disease (p = 0.0287) and chronic respiratory disease (p = 0.0416), who show moderate reductions. Such differences diminish by day 90 and 180. Most people show detectable SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses at day 90 and day 180 without significant differences between disease groups and healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the comparable safety, immunogenicity and cellular immunity memory of CoronaVac in seniors and people living with chronic diseases. This data should reduce vaccine hesitancy in this population.

People living with chronic diseases, particularly those over the age of 60, are more likely to have severe symptoms and die following SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, many have not been vaccinated during the national COVID-19 vaccination campaign in China due to concerns about vaccine safety and effectiveness. Here we show that the inactivated COVID-19 vaccine, CoronaVac, is as safe in older people with chronic diseases as it is for healthy people. Also, only slightly differences are seen in the immune response of people with diseases compared to healthy people. Overall, our results highlight that the CoronaVac vaccine is safe and effective in people living with chronic diseases.

Safety, immunogenicity, and immune persistence of two inactivated COVID-19 vaccines replacement vaccination in China: An observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To mitigate a national shortage of WIBP-CorV COVID-19 vaccine, China's regulator approved administering BBIBP-CorV after WIBP-CorV for completion of a primary series. In a pragmatic observational study, we compared immunogenicity and safety of a primary series of WIBP-CorV followed by BBIBP-CorV with a primary series of two doses of BBIBP-CorV. METHODS: We invited healthy 18-59-years-old adults who had already received either WIBP-CorV or BBIBP-CorV as their first dose in a primary series to participate in this observational cohort study. Subjects who had received WIBP-CorV as their first dose became the observation group; subjects who had received BBIBP-CorV as their first dose became the control group. All participants received BBIBP-CorV as their second dose. We obtained sera 1, 2, and 6 months after second doses for nAb titer measurement by micro-neutralization cytopathic effect assay with SARS-CoV-2 strain HB01, standardized with WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. Safety was assessed for the 7 days after administration of second doses. RESULTS: Between March and December 2021, 275 subjects were included in the observation group and 133 in the control group. Neutralizing seropositivity (≥1:4) rates were 98.91 % and 99.25 % at 1 month and 53.16 % and 70.69 % at 6 months. One-month geometric mean titers (GMTs) were 21.33 and 22.45; one-month geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) were 227.71 IU/mL and 273.27 IU/mL. One to two months after vaccination, observation group seropositivity rates and titers were not significantly different to the control group's. Adverse reaction rates were 11.27 % and 18.80 %, all mild or moderate in severity. CONCLUSIONS: Both primary series were immunogenic; immunogenicity of WIBP-CorV followed by BBIBP-CorV was not different than immunogenicity following two doses of BBIBP-CorV for two months after vaccination; safety profiles were acceptable for both regimens. BBIBP-CorV can be used to complete a primary series that started with WIBP-CorV.

Sleep behavior and depression: Findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank of 0.5 million Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Mixed results have shown the association between sleep behavior and depression, but evidence relating the joint effect of sleep duration and sleep disturbances is limited, especially in Chinese population. METHODS: A total of 512,891 adults aged 30-79 years from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) were included. Depression was defined by Composite International Diagnostic Inventory-short form (CIDI-SF). Sleep duration and sleep disturbances, including difficulty initiating and maintaining sleep (DIMS), early morning awakening (EMA), daytime dysfunction (DDF) and any sleep disturbances (ASD), were obtained by a self-reported questionnaire. Logistic regression was applied to examine the association between sleep behavior and depression. RESULTS: About 23.1% of participants reported short sleep duration (≤ 6h), and 5.1% reported long sleep duration (> 9h). Compared with normal sleep duration (7-9h), both groups were associated greater likelihood of having depression (short sleep: OR = 2.32, 95%CI: 2.14-2.51; long sleep: OR = 1.56, 96%CI: 1.34-1.81). Participants reported sleep disturbances were significantly associated with depression (odds ratios ranged from 3.31 to 4.17). Moreover, the associations tended to be stronger for those who reported both abnormal sleep duration and sleep disturbances (p for interactions < 0.05), especially for those who slept long. LIMITATIONS: The cross-sectional nature of the study design limits the interpretation of the results. CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal sleep duration and sleep disturbances were associated with depression. The associations were stronger for abnormal sleep duration accompanied with sleep disturbances, especially for a long duration. More attention should be paid on these persons in clinical practice.

[Epidemiological characteristics and related influencing factors on Japanese encephalitis in Hainan Province].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the epidemiological characteristics and the influencing factors of Japanese encephalitis (Abbreviated JE) at different periods in Hainan province, and to provide evidence for JE control strategies. METHODS: Data on JE had been collected since 1952 and related incidence, mortality, fatality rates of JE and the rate of JE vaccination were calculated for four periods: the natural epidemic period (1952-1978), period for inactivated JE vaccine promotion (1979-1986), national immunization program period (1987-1990) and the promotion of live-attenuated JE vaccine period (1991-2007). History on the immunity of JE and data from the monitoring programs on cases and insect vectors were also analyzed. RESULTS: The average annual incidence in natural epidemic period was 7.12/100,000, which was also the highest among the 4 periods with the mortality rate as 0.89/100,000. The average annual incidence was 0.11/100,000 which was the lowest while the mortality rate was 0.01/100,000 in the period when live-attenuated JE vaccination was under promotion. Since the establishment of JE surveillance system was set up in Hainan province in 2002, the specimen collection rate of JE reported suspected cases had reached 92.8%, while the incidence of confirmed JE cases fluctuated between 0.05/100,000 and 0.2/100,000. Of the confirmed cases, 86% did not have clear history of JE vaccination. The annual average protective rate reached 95.69% in 2004-2007. The density of insect vectors was high in Hainan province. The infection rate of JE in host animal swine, kept rising from April to October, and in some surveillance points, the rate reached 99.3%. The density of insect vector plotted in trans-curve with the infection of host animals. CONCLUSION: The application of live-attenuated JE vaccine was found to have had significant protective effect on JE in susceptible children. It helped reducing the incidence and controlling the epidemics of JE. It appears feasible to include live-attenuated JE vaccine into the expanded immunization program.

[Evaluation on the effect of implementation regarding the measles surveillance system in Hainan province].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the development and operation on measles surveillance system. METHODS: To formulate surveillance program, and then establish surveillance system on measles in Hainan province before the case surveillance was conducted. Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the measles cases reported through the notifiable diseases epidemic situation report system and measles surveillance system during 2004 - 2008 in Hainan province. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2008, through surveillance system, 3040 suspected measles cases were reported which was 96.00% higher than that from the notifiable diseases epidemic situation report system. When the measles surveillance system was first established in 2004, the number of cases reported by the surveillance system was less than that from the epidemic report system, however, the sensitivity of the surveillance system had been increasing since 2005. In 2008, the number of suspected cases reported by surveillance system was 19.12 times more than from the epidemic report system. The proportion of confirmed cases in the total suspected cases was decreasing annually, from 90.34% to 4.48%, along with the increase of the sample collection rate, from 22.73% to 99.12%. The proportion of laboratory confirmed cases in the total confirmed cases increased from 7.55% to 86.97%. With suspected cases, the IgM antibody positive rate on measles and rubella were 31.57% and 34.52%, respectively. In Hainan, the epidemic pattern of measles had been sporadic, except for 2006 as there occurred several outbreaks in that year. The of disease incidence had an obvious seasonal peaks, from March to June. Measles mainly attacked children under 15 years of age, accounted for 86.68% of the age group. Children with no immunity or unknown immune history accounted for 85.67%. CONCLUSION: The sensitivity of surveillance system had been increasing annually since it was developed and the incidence had been dropping to its lowest level. These achievements had built a solid foundation for the eventual elimination of measles.