Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota.

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed.

Long-term trends of nutrients and apparent oxygen utilization South of the polar front in Southern Ocean intermediate water from 1965 to 2008.

The variation of nutrients over decadal timescales south of the polar front in the Southern Ocean is poorly known because of a lack of continuous observational data in this area. We examined data from long-term continuous hydrographic monitoring of 43 years (1965-2008) in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, via the resupply of Antarctic stations under the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition and Australian Antarctic Research Expedition. We found significant increasing trends in phosphate and nitrate, and a decreasing trend in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) in intermediate water (neutral density = 27.8-28.1 kgm(-3)) south of the polar front. The rates of phosphate and nitrate increase are 0.004 µmol yr(-1) and 0.02 µmol yr(-1), respectively. The rate of decline of AOU was 0.32 µmol yr(-1). One reason for this phosphate and nitrate increase and AOU decline is reduced horizontal advection of North Atlantic Deep Water, which is characterized by low nutrients and high AOU. The relationship between climate change and nutrient variability remains obscure, emphasizing the importance of long-term monitoring.