RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Detecting early-stage lung cancer is critical to reduce the lung cancer mortality rate; however, existing models based on germline variants perform poorly, and new models are needed. This study aimed to use extreme gradient boosting to develop a predictive model for the early diagnosis of lung cancer in a multicenter case-control study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 974 cases and 1005 controls in Shanghai and Taizhou were recruited, and 61 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped. Multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate the association between signal SNPs and lung cancer risk. Logistic regression (LR) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms, a large-scale machine learning algorithm, were adopted to build the lung cancer risk model. In both models, 10-fold cross-validation was performed, and model predictive performance was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: After FDR adjustment, TYMS rs3819102 and BAG6 rs1077393 were significantly associated with lung cancer risk (p < 0.05). For lung cancer risk prediction, the model predicted only with epidemiology attained an AUC of 0.703 for LR and 0.744 for XGBoost. Compared with the LR model predicted only with epidemiology, further adding SNPs and applying XGBoost increased the AUC to 0.759 (p < 0.001) in the XGBoost model. BAG6 rs1077393 was the most important predictor among all SNPs in the lung cancer prediction XGBoost model, followed by TERT rs2735845 and CAMKK1 rs7214723. Further stratification in lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) showed a significantly elevated performance from 0.639 to 0.699 (p = 0.009) when applying XGBoost and adding SNPs to the model, while the best model for lung squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) prediction was the LR model predicted with epidemiology and SNPs (AUC = 0.833), compared with the XGBoost model (AUC = 0.816). CONCLUSION: Our lung cancer risk prediction models in the Chinese population have a strong predictive ability, especially for SCC. Adding SNPs and applying the XGBoost algorithm to the epidemiologic-based logistic regression risk prediction model significantly improves model performance.