Multiscale seasonal factors drive the size of winter monarch colonies.

Monarch butterflies in eastern North America have declined by 84% on Mexican wintering grounds since the observed peak in 1996. However, coarse-scale population indices from northern US breeding grounds do not show a consistent downward trend. This discrepancy has led to speculation that autumn migration may be a critical limiting period. We address this hypothesis by examining the role of multiscale processes impacting monarchs during autumn, assessed using arrival abundances at all known winter colony sites over a 12-y period (2004-2015). We quantified effects of continental-scale (climate, landscape greenness, and disease) and local-scale (colony habitat quality) drivers of spatiotemporal trends in winter colony sizes. We also included effects of peak summer and migratory population indices. Our results demonstrate that higher summer abundance on northern breeding grounds led to larger winter colonies as did greener autumns, a proxy for increased nectar availability in southern US floral corridors. Colony sizes were also positively correlated with the amount of local dense forest cover and whether they were located within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, but were not influenced by disease rates. Although we demonstrate a demographic link between summer and fine-scale winter population sizes, we also reveal that conditions experienced during, and at the culmination of, autumn migration impact annual dynamics. Monarchs face a growing threat if floral resources and winter habitat availability diminish under climate change. Our study tackles a long-standing gap in the monarch's annual cycle and highlights the importance of evaluating migratory conditions to understand mechanisms governing long-term population trends.

The monarch butterfly in Mexico: a conservation model.

Each fall, millions of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus L.) travel from Canada and the United States to overwinter in Mexico and California. In 2022, the IUCN listed migratory monarchs as endangered because of their population decline. The main accepted drivers are widespread use of herbicides, effects of climate, and land use change that causes habitat loss. We analyzed the main actions taken to officially protect the overwintering sites and the migration phenomenon with the establishment of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in 2000. The conservation of the monarch overwintering sites in Mexico is an example of continuous work from their discovery to the present. We highlight the importance of monitoring the areas covered by overwintering monarchs in Mexico. These colonies represent the largest concentrations of monarch populations in the world. In the last 10 years, the average area covered by monarchs was 2.72 ( ± 0.47 SE) hectares.