Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality from the four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as the 25 × 25 target). Countries also agreed on a set of global voluntary targets for selected NCD risk factors. Previous analyses have shown that achieving the risk factor targets can contribute substantially towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target at the global level. We estimated the contribution of achieving six of the globally agreed risk factor targets towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target by region. METHODS: We estimated the effect of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multicausality of NCDs and for the fact that, when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from reanalyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. FINDINGS: The probability of dying between the ages 30 years and 70 years from the four main NCDs in 2010 ranged from 19% in the region of the Americas to 29% in southeast Asia for men, and from 13% in Europe to 21% in southeast Asia for women. If current trends continue, the probability of dying prematurely from the four main NCDs is projected to increase in the African region but decrease in the other five regions. If the risk factor targets are achieved, the 25 × 25 target will be surpassed in Europe in both men and women, and will be achieved in women (and almost achieved in men) in the western Pacific; the regions of the Americas, the eastern Mediterranean, and southeast Asia will approach the target; and the rising trend in Africa will be reversed. In most regions, a more ambitious approach to tobacco control (50% reduction relative to 2010 instead of the agreed 30%) will contribute the most to reducing premature NCD mortality among men, followed by addressing raised blood pressure and the agreed tobacco target. For women, the highest contributing risk factor towards the premature NCD mortality target will be raised blood pressure in every region except Europe and the Americas, where the ambitious (but not agreed) tobacco reduction would have the largest benefit. INTERPRETATION: No WHO region will meet the 25 × 25 premature mortality target if current mortality trends continue. Achieving the agreed targets for the six risk factors will allow some regions to meet the 25 × 25 target and others to approach it. Meeting the 25 × 25 target in Africa needs other interventions, including those addressing infection-related cancers and cardiovascular disease. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

The Burden and Determinants of Non Communicable Diseases Risk Factors in Nepal: Findings from a Nationwide STEPS Survey.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization (WHO) estimates for deaths attributed to Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Nepal have risen from 51% in 2010 to 60% in 2014. This study assessed the distribution and determinants of NCD risk factors among the Nepalese adult population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A nationally representative cross-sectional survey was conducted from Jan to June 2013 on the prevalence of NCD risk factors using the WHO NCD STEPS instrument. A multistage cluster sampling method was used to randomly select the 4,200 respondents. The adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) was used to assess the determinants of NCD risk factors using a Poisson regression model. The prevalence of current smoking (last 30 days) was 19% (95%CI:16.6-20.6), and harmful alcohol consumption (≥60 g of pure alcohol for men and ≥40 g of pure alcohol for women on an average day) was 2% (95%CI:1.4-2.9). Almost all (99%, 95%CI:98.3-99.3) of the respondents consumed less than five servings of fruits and vegetables combined on an average day and 3% (95%CI:2.7-4.3) had low physical activity. Around 21% (95%CI:19.3-23.7) were overweight or obese (BMI≥25). The prevalence of raised blood pressure (SBP≥140 mm of Hg or DBP≥90 mm of Hg) and raised blood glucose (fasting blood glucose ≥126 mg/dl), including those on medication were 26% (95%CI:23.6-28.0) and 4% (95%CI:2.9-4.5) respectively. Almost one quarter of respondents, 23% (95%CI:20.5-24.9), had raised total cholesterol (total cholesterol ≥190 mg/dl or under current medication for raised cholesterol). he study revealed a lower prevalence of smoking among women than men (APR:0.30; 95%CI:0.25-0.36), and in those who had higher education levels compared to those with no formal education (APR:0.39; 95%CI:0.26-0.58). Harmful alcohol use was also lower in women than men (APR:0.26; 95%CI:0.14-0.48), and in Terai residents compared to hill residents (APR:0.16; 95%CI:0.07-0.36). Physical inactivity was lower among women than men (APR:0.55; 95%CI:0.38-0.80), however women were significantly more overweight and obese (APR:1.19; 95%CI:1.02-1.39). Being overweight or obese was significantly less prevalent in mountain residents than in hill residents (APR:0.41; 95%CI:0.21-0.80), and in rural compared to urban residents (APR:1.39; 95%CI:1.15-1.67). Lower prevalence of raised blood pressure was observed among women than men (APR:0.69; 95%CI: 0.60-0.80). Higher prevalence of raised blood glucose was observed among urban residents compared to rural residents (APR:2.05; 95%CI:1.29-3.25). A higher prevalence of raised total cholesterol was observed among the respondents having higher education levels compared to those respondents having no formal education (APR:1.76; 95%CI:1.35-2.28). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of low fruit and vegetable consumption, overweight and obesity, raised blood pressure and raised total cholesterol is markedly high among the Nepalese population, with variation by demographic and ecological factors and urbanization. Prevention, treatment and control of NCDs and their risk factors in Nepal is an emerging public health problem in the country, and targeted interventions with a multi-sectoral approach need to be urgently implemented.