The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean warming in the twenty-first century to less than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and to promote further efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius1. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades will be consequential for global mean sea level (GMSL) on century and longer timescales through a combination of ocean thermal expansion and loss of land ice2. The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is Earth's largest land ice reservoir (equivalent to 57.9 metres of GMSL)3, and its ice loss is accelerating4. Extensive regions of the AIS are grounded below sea level and susceptible to dynamical instabilities5-8 that are capable of producing very rapid retreat8. Yet the potential for the implementation of the Paris Agreement temperature targets to slow or stop the onset of these instabilities has not been directly tested with physics-based models. Here we use an observationally calibrated ice sheet-shelf model to show that with global warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less, Antarctic ice loss will continue at a pace similar to today's throughout the twenty-first century. However, scenarios more consistent with current policies (allowing 3 degrees Celsius of warming) give an abrupt jump in the pace of Antarctic ice loss after around 2060, contributing about 0.5 centimetres GMSL rise per year by 2100-an order of magnitude faster than today4. More fossil-fuel-intensive scenarios9 result in even greater acceleration. Ice-sheet retreat initiated by the thinning and loss of buttressing ice shelves continues for centuries, regardless of bedrock and sea-level feedback mechanisms10-12 or geoengineered carbon dioxide reduction. These results demonstrate the possibility that rapid and unstoppable sea-level rise from Antarctica will be triggered if Paris Agreement targets are exceeded.

Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene.

Geological data indicate that there were major variations in Antarctic ice sheet volume and extent during the early to mid-Miocene. Simulating such large-scale changes is problematic because of a strong hysteresis effect, which results in stability once the ice sheets have reached continental size. A relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations indicated by proxy records exacerbates this problem. Here, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the early to mid-Miocene Antarctic ice sheet because of three developments in our modeling approach. (i) We use a climate-ice sheet coupling method utilizing a high-resolution atmospheric component to account for ice sheet-climate feedbacks. (ii) The ice sheet model includes recently proposed mechanisms for retreat into deep subglacial basins caused by ice-cliff failure and ice-shelf hydrofracture. (iii) We account for changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice sheet by using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We compare our modeling results with ice-proximal records emerging from a sedimentological drill core from the Ross Sea (Andrill-2A) that is presented in a companion article. The variability in Antarctic ice volume that we simulate is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of 0.52-0.66‰, or a sea level equivalent change of 30-36 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 and 500 ppm and a changing astronomical configuration. This result represents a substantial advance in resolving the long-standing model data conflict of Miocene Antarctic ice sheet and sea level variability.

Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations in the early to mid-Miocene.

Geological records from the Antarctic margin offer direct evidence of environmental variability at high southern latitudes and provide insight regarding ice sheet sensitivity to past climate change. The early to mid-Miocene (23-14 Mya) is a compelling interval to study as global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for coming centuries. Importantly, this time interval includes the Miocene Climatic Optimum, a period of global warmth during which average surface temperatures were 3-4 °C higher than today. Miocene sediments in the ANDRILL-2A drill core from the Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, indicate that the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) was highly variable through this key time interval. A multiproxy dataset derived from the core identifies four distinct environmental motifs based on changes in sedimentary facies, fossil assemblages, geochemistry, and paleotemperature. Four major disconformities in the drill core coincide with regional seismic discontinuities and reflect transient expansion of grounded ice across the Ross Sea. They correlate with major positive shifts in benthic oxygen isotope records and generally coincide with intervals when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were at or below preindustrial levels (∼280 ppm). Five intervals reflect ice sheet minima and air temperatures warm enough for substantial ice mass loss during episodes of high (∼500 ppm) atmospheric CO2 These new drill core data and associated ice sheet modeling experiments indicate that polar climate and the AIS were highly sensitive to relatively small changes in atmospheric CO2 during the early to mid-Miocene.

Rapid northern hemisphere ice sheet melting during the penultimate deglaciation.

The rate and consequences of future high latitude ice sheet retreat remain a major concern given ongoing anthropogenic warming. Here, new precisely dated stalagmite data from NW Iberia provide the first direct, high-resolution records of periods of rapid melting of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the penultimate deglaciation. These records reveal the penultimate deglaciation initiated with rapid century-scale meltwater pulses which subsequently trigger abrupt coolings of air temperature in NW Iberia consistent with freshwater-induced AMOC slowdowns. The first of these AMOC slowdowns, 600-year duration, was shorter than Heinrich 1 of the last deglaciation. Although similar insolation forcing initiated the last two deglaciations, the more rapid and sustained rate of freshening in the eastern North Atlantic penultimate deglaciation likely reflects a larger volume of ice stored in the marine-based Eurasian Ice sheet during the penultimate glacial in contrast to the land-based ice sheet on North America as during the last glacial.

Author Correction: Past continental shelf evolution increased Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to climatic conditions.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Numerical simulations of a kilometre-thick Arctic ice shelf consistent with ice grounding observations.

Recently obtained geophysical data show sets of parallel erosional features on the Lomonosov Ridge in the central Arctic Basin, indicative of ice grounding in water depths up to 1280 m. These features have been interpreted as being formed by an ice shelf-either restricted to the Amerasian Basin (the "minimum model") or extending across the entire Arctic Basin. Here, we use a numerical ice sheet-shelf model to explore how such an ice shelf could form. We rule out the "minimum model" and suggest that grounding on the Lomonosov Ridge requires complete Arctic ice shelf cover; this places a minimum estimate on its volume, which would have exceeded that of the modern Greenland Ice Sheet. Buttressing provided by an Arctic ice shelf would have increased volumes of the peripheral terrestrial ice sheets. An Arctic ice shelf could have formed even in the absence of a hypothesised East Siberian Ice Sheet.

Past continental shelf evolution increased Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to climatic conditions.

Over the past 34 Million years, the Antarctic continental shelf has gradually deepened due to ice sheet loading, thermal subsidence, and erosion from repeated glaciations. The deepening that is recorded in the sedimentary deposits around the Antarctic margin indicates that after the mid-Miocene Climate Optimum (≈15 Ma), Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) dynamical response to climate conditions changed. We explore end-members for maximum AIS extent, based on ice-sheet simulations of a late-Pleistocene and a mid-Miocene glaciation. Fundamental dynamical differences emerge as a consequence of atmospheric forcing, eustatic sea level and continental shelf evolution. We show that the AIS contributed to the amplification of its own sensitivity to ocean forcing by gradually expanding and eroding the continental shelf, that probably changed its tipping points through time. The lack of past topographic and bathymetric reconstructions implies that so far, we still have an incomplete understanding of AIS fast response to past warm climate conditions, which is crucial to constrain its future evolution.