RESUMO
During October 2021-June 2023, a total of 392 cases of acute hepatitis of unknown etiology in children in the United States were reported to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as part of national surveillance. We describe demographic and clinical characteristics, including potential involvement of adenovirus in development of acute hepatitis, of 8 fatally ill children who met reporting criteria. The children had diverse courses of illness. Two children were immunocompromised when initially brought for care. Four children tested positive for adenovirus in multiple specimen types, including 2 for whom typing was completed. One adenovirus-positive child had no known underlying conditions, supporting a potential relationship between adenovirus and acute hepatitis in previously healthy children. Our findings emphasize the importance of continued investigation to determine the mechanism of liver injury and appropriate treatment. Testing for adenovirus in similar cases could elucidate the role of the virus.
Assuntos
Hepatite A , Hepatite , Vírus , Criança , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Hepatite A/epidemiologia , Doença AgudaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Norovirus is a major cause of endemic acute gastroenteritis (AGE) worldwide. We described the epidemiology, risk factors, and genotypic distribution of noroviruses among hospitalized patients of all ages in Bangladesh. METHODS: From March 2018 to October 2021, 1250 AGE case patients and controls (age, sex, season, and site matched) were enrolled at 10 hospitals. Demographic and clinical information was collected; real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) used to test stool specimens, and positive samples were genotyped. RESULTS: Norovirus was detected in 9% of cases (111 of 1250) and 15% (182 of 1250) of controls. Eighty-two percent of norovirus-positive cases were in children <5 years old. Norovirus-positive AGE hospitalizations occurred year-round, with peaks in April and October. Risk factors for norovirus included age <5 years (adjusted odds ratio, 3.1 [95% confidence interval, 1.9-5.2]) and exposure to a patient with AGE in the 10 days before enrollment (3.8 [1.9-7.2]). GII.3[P16] and GII.4 Sydney[P16] were the predominant genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight the burden of norovirus in hospital settings. Young age and recent exposure to a patient with AGE were risk factors for norovirus. A high prevalence of norovirus among controls might represent asymptomatic reinfections or prolonged shedding from a previous infection; carefully designed longitudinal studies are needed to improve our understanding of norovirus infections in Bangladesh.
Assuntos
Infecções por Caliciviridae , Norovirus , Criança , Humanos , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Recém-Nascido , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Centros de Atenção Terciária , Fezes , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Hospitalização , Infecções por Caliciviridae/epidemiologia , Norovirus/genética , Genótipo , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco , FilogeniaRESUMO
Responding to measles outbreaks in the United States puts a considerable strain on public health resources, and limited research exists about the effectiveness of containment strategies. In this paper we quantify the impact of isolation, contact tracing, and exclusion in reducing transmission during a measles outbreak in an under-vaccinated community.
Assuntos
Sarampo , Saúde Pública , Busca de Comunicante , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo , Vírus do Sarampo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Measles elimination (interruption of endemic measles virus transmission) in the United States was declared in 2000; however, the number of cases and outbreaks have increased in recent years. We characterized the epidemiology of measles outbreaks and measles transmission patterns after elimination to identify potential gaps in the US measles control program. METHODS: We analyzed national measles notification data from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2019. We defined measles infection clusters as single cases (isolated cases not linked to additional cases), 2-case clusters, or outbreaks with ≥3 linked cases. We calculated the effective reproduction number (R) to assess changes in transmissibility and reviewed molecular epidemiology data. RESULTS: During 2001-2019, a total of 3873 measles cases, including 747 international importations, were reported in the United States; 29% of importations were associated with outbreaks. Among 871 clusters, 69% were single cases and 72% had no spread. Larger and longer clusters were reported since 2013, including 7 outbreaks with >50 cases lasting >2 months, 5 of which occurred in known underimmunized, close-knit communities. No measles lineage circulated in a single transmission chain for >12 months. Higher estimates of R were noted in recent years, although R remained below the epidemic threshold of 1. CONCLUSIONS: Current epidemiology continues to support the interruption of endemic measles virus transmission in the United States. However, larger and longer outbreaks in recent postelimination years and emerging trends of increased transmission in underimmunized communities emphasize the need for targeted approaches to close existing immunity gaps and maintain measles elimination.
Assuntos
Epidemias , Sarampo , Número Básico de Reprodução , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo , Vírus do Sarampo/genética , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , VacinaçãoRESUMO
The global measles vaccination program has been extraordinarily successful in reducing measles-related disease and deaths worldwide. Eradication of measles is feasible because of several key attributes, including humans as the only reservoir for the virus, broad access to diagnostic tools that can rapidly detect measles-infectious persons, and availability of highly safe and effective measles-containing vaccines (MCVs). All 6 World Health Organization (WHO) regions have established measles elimination goals. Globally, during 2000-2018, measles incidence decreased by 66% (from 145 to 49 cases per million population) and deaths decreased by 73% (from 535 600 to 142 300), drastically reducing global disease burden. Routine immunization with MCV has been the cornerstone for the control and prevention of measles. Two doses of MCV are 97% effective in preventing measles, qualifying MCV as one of the most effective vaccines ever developed. Mild adverse events occur in <20% of recipients and serious adverse events are extremely rare. The economic benefits of measles vaccination are highlighted by an overall return on investment of 58 times the cost of the vaccine, supply chains, and vaccination. Because measles is one of the most contagious human diseases, maintenance of high (≥95%) 2-dose MCV coverage is crucial for controlling the spread of measles and successfully reaching measles elimination; however, the plateauing of global MCV coverage for nearly a decade and the global measles resurgence during 2018-2019 demonstrate that much work remains. Global commitments to increase community access to and demand for immunizations, strengthen national and regional partnerships for building public health infrastructure, and implement innovations that can overcome access barriers and enhance vaccine confidence, are essential to achieve a world free of measles.
Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Saúde Global , Vacina contra Sarampo/administração & dosagem , Vírus do Sarampo/imunologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Erradicação de Doenças/tendências , Humanos , Programas de Imunização , Incidência , Lactente , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Vírus do Sarampo/isolamento & purificação , Vigilância da População , Organização Mundial da SaúdeRESUMO
The role of individual case characteristics, such as symptoms or demographics, in norovirus transmissibility is poorly understood. Six nursing home norovirus outbreaks occurring in South Carolina, U.S. from 2014 to 2016 were examined. We aimed to quantify the contribution of symptoms and other case characteristics in norovirus transmission using the reproduction number (REi) as an estimate of individual case infectivity and to examine how transmission changes over the course of an outbreak. Individual estimates of REi were calculated using a maximum likelihood procedure to infer the average number of secondary cases generated by each case. The associations between case characteristics and REi were estimated using a weighted multivariate mixed linear model. Outbreaks began with one to three index case(s) with large estimated REi's (range: 1.48 to 8.70) relative to subsequent cases. Of the 209 cases, 155 (75%) vomited, 164 (79%) had diarrhea, and 158 (76%) were nursing home residents (vs. staff). Cases who vomited infected 2.12 (95% CI: 1.68, 2.68) times the number of individuals as non-vomiters, cases with diarrhea infected 1.39 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.87) times the number of individuals as cases without diarrhea, and resident-cases infected 1.53 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.02) times the number of individuals as staff-cases. Index cases tended to be residents (vs. staff) who vomited and infected considerably more secondary cases compared to non-index cases. Results suggest that individuals, particularly residents, who vomit are more infectious and tend to drive norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home norovirus outbreaks. While diarrhea also plays a role in norovirus transmission, it is to a lesser degree than vomiting in these settings. Results lend support for prevention and control measures that focus on cases who vomit, particularly if those cases are residents.
Assuntos
Infecções por Caliciviridae/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Diarreia/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Doenças Transmitidas por Alimentos/epidemiologia , Humanos , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa do Paciente para o Profissional/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa do Profissional para o Paciente/prevenção & controle , Masculino , Norovirus/patogenicidade , Casas de Saúde/tendências , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vômito/epidemiologia , Vômito/virologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Several cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidates are under development. To reduce the burden of congenital CMV infection, potential strategies under consideration include vaccination of adult women, adolescent girls, and/or young children (both sexes). METHODS: We reviewed 5 studies that used infectious disease modeling to assess the potential impact of vaccination for preventing congenital CMV infection. All models assumed CMV vaccination would prevent primary infection and 2 models also assumed prevention of reinfections and reactivations. RESULTS: Despite differences in structure, assumptions, and population data, infant vaccination (both sexes) was the optimal strategy in all models, but in 1 model vaccinating seronegative women at 19-21 years of age was also optimal (for duration of vaccine protection ≥8 years). In 3 models, infant vaccination increased average age at primary infection as a result of decreased secondary transmission (herd immunity) combined with waning vaccine-induced immunity. This effect could increase the risk of congenital CMV infections in populations where primary CMV infection occurs early in childhood but could be minimized by administering a second dose of vaccine during adolescence. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding vaccine efficacy and duration of immunity, and how these might vary depending on CMV serostatus and age at vaccination, will be key to defining CMV vaccination strategies.
Assuntos
Infecções por Citomegalovirus/imunologia , Infecções por Citomegalovirus/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra Citomegalovirus/imunologia , Citomegalovirus/imunologia , Transmissão Vertical de Doenças Infecciosas/prevenção & controle , Modelos Teóricos , Vacinação , Feminino , Saúde Global , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Vigilância da População , GravidezRESUMO
Despite the elimination of measles in the United States (US) in the year 2000, cases continue to occur, with measles outbreaks having occurred in various jurisdictions in the US in 2018 and 2019. Understanding the cost associated with measles outbreaks can inform cost-of-illness and cost-effectiveness studies of measles and measles prevention. We performed a literature review and identified 10 published studies from 2001 through 2018 that presented cost estimates from 11 measles outbreaks. The median total cost per measles outbreak was $152â 308 (range, $9862-$1â 063â 936); the median cost per case was $32â 805 (range, $7396-$76â 154) and the median cost per contact was $223 (range, $81-$746). There were limited data on direct and indirect costs associated with measles. These findings highlight how costly measles outbreaks can be, the value of this information for public health department budgeting, and the importance of more broadly documenting the cost of measles outbreaks.
Assuntos
Sarampo , Análise Custo-Benefício , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo , Saúde Pública , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , VacinaçãoRESUMO
Characteristics of vaccine-associated rash illness (VARI) and confirmed measles cases were compared during a measles outbreak. Although some clinical differences were noted, measles exposure and identification of the vaccine strain were helpful for public health decision-making. Rapid, vaccine strain-specific diagnostic assays will more efficiently distinguish VARI from measles.
Assuntos
Exantema , Sarampo , Surtos de Doenças , Exantema/epidemiologia , Exantema/etiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Sarampo/diagnóstico , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo/efeitos adversos , Vacina contra Sarampo-Caxumba-Rubéola/efeitos adversos , Minnesota/epidemiologia , VacinaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Although measles was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000, measles cases and outbreaks continue to occur, resulting from importations of the disease from countries where it remains endemic. METHODS: We describe the epidemiology of international importations of measles virus into the United States during the postelimination era. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2016, 553 imported measles cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A median of 28 importations occurred each year (range: 18-80). The median age of imported case-patients was 18 years (range: 3 months-75 years); 87% were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status. US residents (as opposed to foreign visitors) accounted for 62% of imported measles cases. Overall, 62% of all imported case-patients reported travel to countries in the Western Pacific and European Regions of the World Health Organization during their exposure periods. The number of measles importations from specific countries was related to the incidence of measles in and the volume of travel to and from the source country. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasize the importance of measles vaccination of US residents aged ≥6 months before international travel according to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations and supporting global measles elimination efforts.
Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Importadas/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Vírus do Sarampo , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Doenças Transmissíveis Importadas/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Humanos , Imunização/estatística & dados numéricos , Lactente , Masculino , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Mumps is an acute viral illness that classically presents with parotitis. Although the United States experienced a 99% reduction in mumps cases following implementation of the 2-dose vaccination program in 1989, mumps has resurged in the past 10 years. METHODS: We assessed the epidemiological characteristics of mumps outbreaks with ≥20 cases reported in the United States electronically through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System and from supplemental outbreak data through direct communications with jurisdictions from July 2010 through December 2015. Mumps cases were defined using the 2012 Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists case definition. RESULTS: Twenty-three outbreaks with 20-485 cases per outbreak were reported in 18 jurisdictions. The duration of outbreaks ranged from 1.5 to 8.5 months (median, 3 months). All outbreaks involved close-contact settings; 18 (78%) involved universities, 16 (70%) occurred primarily among young adults (median age, 18-24 years), and 9 (39%) occurred in highly vaccinated populations (2-dose measles-mumps-rubella vaccine coverage ≥85%). CONCLUSIONS: During 2010-2015, multiple mumps outbreaks among highly vaccinated populations in close-contact settings occurred. Most cases occurred among vaccinated young adults, suggesting that waning immunity played a role. Further evaluation of risk factors associated with these outbreaks is warranted.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Programas de Imunização , Vacina contra Sarampo-Caxumba-Rubéola/administração & dosagem , Caxumba/epidemiologia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Lactente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Caxumba/transmissão , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Fatores de Risco , Estudantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Universidades , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We describe a measles outbreak and control measures implemented at a privately operated detention facility housing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detainees in 2016. METHODS: Case-patients reported fever and rash and were either laboratory-confirmed or had an epidemiological link to a laboratory-confirmed case-patient. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) avidity and plaque reduction neutralization tests distinguished between primary acute and reinfection case-patients. Measles-specific IgG was measured to assess detainee immunity levels. We compared attack rates (ARs) among detainees and staff, between IgG-negative and IgG-positive detainees, and by detainee housing units and sexes. RESULTS: We identified 32 measles case-patients (23 detainees, 9 staff); rash onsets were during 6 May-26 June 2016. High IgG avidity and neutralizing-antibody titers >40000 to measles (indicating reinfection) were identified in 18 (95%) and 15 (84%) of 19 tested case-patients, respectively. Among 205 unit A detainees tested for presumptive immunity, 186 (91%) had detectable IgG. Overall, the AR was 1.65%. ARs were significantly higher among detainees in unit A (7.05%) compared with units B-F (0.59%), and among male (2.33%) compared with female detainees (0.38%); however, ARs were not significantly different between detainees and staff or between IgG-negative and IgG-positive detainees. Control measures included the vaccination of 1424 of 1425 detainees and 190 of 510 staff, immunity verification for 445 staff, case-patient isolation, and quarantine of affected units. CONCLUSIONS: Although ARs were low, measles outbreaks can occur in intense-exposure settings, despite a high population immunity, underscoring the importance of high vaccination coverage and containment in limiting measles transmission.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Prisões , Adulto , Arizona/epidemiologia , Feminino , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Técnicas Imunoenzimáticas , Imunoglobulina G , Imunoglobulina M , Masculino , Sarampo/diagnóstico , Sarampo/história , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , Testes Sorológicos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Although measles was eliminated in the United States in 2000, importations of the virus continue to cause outbreaks. We describe the epidemiologic features of an outbreak of measles that originated from two unvaccinated Amish men in whom measles was incubating at the time of their return to the United States from the Philippines and explore the effect of public health responses on limiting the spread of measles. METHODS: We performed descriptive analyses of data on demographic characteristics, clinical and laboratory evaluations, and vaccination coverage. RESULTS: From March 24, 2014, through July 23, 2014, a total of 383 outbreak-related cases of measles were reported in nine counties in Ohio. The median age of case patients was 15 years (range, <1 to 53); a total of 178 of the case patients (46%) were female, and 340 (89%) were unvaccinated. Transmission took place primarily within households (68% of cases). The virus strain was genotype D9, which was circulating in the Philippines at the time of the reporting period. Measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage with at least a single dose was estimated to be 14% in affected Amish households and more than 88% in the general (non-Amish) Ohio community. Containment efforts included isolation of case patients, quarantine of susceptible persons, and administration of the MMR vaccine to more than 10,000 persons. The spread of measles was limited almost exclusively to the Amish community (accounting for 99% of case patients) and affected only approximately 1% of the estimated 32,630 Amish persons in the settlement. CONCLUSIONS: The key epidemiologic features of a measles outbreak in the Amish community in Ohio were transmission primarily within households, the small proportion of Amish people affected, and the large number of people in the Amish community who sought vaccination. As a result of targeted containment efforts, and high baseline coverage in the general community, there was limited spread beyond the Amish community. (Funded by the Ohio Department of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).
Assuntos
Amish/estatística & dados numéricos , Surtos de Doenças , Vacina contra Sarampo-Caxumba-Rubéola/administração & dosagem , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Sarampo/transmissão , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Ohio/epidemiologiaRESUMO
As of April 26, 2019, CDC had reported 704 cases of measles in the United States since the beginning of 2019, representing the largest number of cases reported in the country in a single year since 1994, when 963 cases occurred, and since measles was declared eliminated* in 2000 (1,2). Measles is a highly contagious, acute viral illness characterized by fever and a maculopapular rash; complications include pneumonia, encephalitis, and death. Among the 704 cases, 503 (71%) were in unvaccinated persons and 689 (98%) occurred in U.S. residents. Overall, 66 (9%) patients were hospitalized. Thirteen outbreaks have been reported in 2019, accounting for 663 cases, 94% of all reported cases. Six of the 13 outbreaks were associated with underimmunized close-knit communities and accounted for 88% of all cases. High 2-dose measles vaccination coverage in the United States has been critical to limiting transmission (3). However, increased global measles activity poses a risk to U.S. elimination, particularly when unvaccinated travelers acquire measles abroad and return to communities with low vaccination rates (4). Health care providers should ensure persons are up to date with measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine, including before international travel, and rapidly report all suspected cases of measles to public health authorities.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Erradicação de Doenças , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Internacionalidade , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo-Caxumba-Rubéola/administração & dosagem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Risco , Doença Relacionada a Viagens , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
During January 1-October 1, 2019, a total of 1,249 measles cases and 22 measles outbreaks were reported in the United States. This represents the most U.S. cases reported in a single year since 1992 (1), and the second highest number of reported outbreaks annually since measles was declared eliminated* in the United States in 2000 (2). Measles is an acute febrile rash illness with an attack rate of approximately 90% in susceptible household contacts (3). Domestic outbreaks can occur when travelers contract measles outside the United States and subsequently transmit infection to unvaccinated persons they expose in the United States. Among the 1,249 measles cases reported in 2019, 1,163 (93%) were associated with the 22 outbreaks, 1,107 (89%) were in patients who were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status, and 119 (10%) measles patients were hospitalized. Closely related outbreaks in New York City (NYC) and New York State (NYS; excluding NYC), with ongoing transmission for nearly 1 year in large and close-knit Orthodox Jewish communities, accounted for 934 (75%) cases during 2019 and threatened the elimination status of measles in the United States. Robust responses in NYC and NYS were effective in controlling transmission before the 1-year mark; however, continued vigilance for additional cases within these communities is essential to determine whether elimination has been sustained. Collaboration between public health authorities and undervaccinated communities is important for preventing outbreaks and limiting transmission. The combination of maintenance of high national vaccination coverage with measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) and rapid implementation of measles control measures remains the cornerstone for preventing widespread measles transmission (4).
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo-Caxumba-Rubéola/administração & dosagem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
A key question in clarifying human-environment interactions is how dynamic complexity develops across integrative scales from molecular to population and global levels. Apart from its public health importance, measles is an excellent test bed for such an analysis. Simple mechanistic models have successfully illuminated measles dynamics at the city and country levels, revealing seasonal forcing of transmission as a major driver of long-term epidemic behavior. Seasonal forcing ties closely to patterns of school aggregation at the individual and community levels, but there are few explicit estimates of school transmission due to the relative lack of epidemic data at this scale. Here, we use data from a 1904 measles outbreak in schools in Woolwich, London, coupled with a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to analyze measles incidence data. Our results indicate that transmission within schools and age classes is higher than previous population-level serological data would suggest. This analysis sheds quantitative light on the role of school-aged children in measles cross-scale dynamics, as we illustrate with references to the contemporary vaccination landscape.
Assuntos
Vacina contra Sarampo , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Sarampo/transmissão , Criança , Surtos de Doenças/história , Epidemias , História do Século XX , Humanos , Programas de Imunização , Incidência , Londres , Modelos Teóricos , Saúde Pública , Instituições Acadêmicas , Estações do Ano , Processos Estocásticos , VacinaçãoRESUMO
We quantified measles transmissibility during a measles outbreak in Ohio in 2014 to evaluate the impact of public health responses. Case incidence and the serial interval (time between symptom onset in primary cases and secondary cases) were used to assess trends in the effective reproduction number R (the average number of secondary cases generated per case). A mathematical model was parameterized using early R values to determine the size and duration of the outbreak that would have occurred if containment measures had not been initiated, as well as the impact of vaccination. As containment started, we found a 4-fold decline in R (from approximately 4 to 1) over the course of 2 weeks and maintenance of R < 1 as control measures continued. Under a conservative scenario, the model estimated 8,472 cases (90% confidence interval (CI): 8,447, 8,489) over 195 days (90% CI: 179, 223) without control efforts and 715 cases (90% CI: 103, 1,338) over 128 days (90% CI: 117, 139) when vaccination was included; 7,757 fewer cases (90% CI: 7,130, 8,365) and 67 fewer outbreak days (90% CI: 48, 98) were attributed to vaccination. Vaccination may not account entirely for transmission reductions, suggesting that changes in community behavior (social distancing) and other control efforts (isolation, quarantining) are important. Our findings highlight the benefits of measles outbreak response and of understanding behavior change dynamics.
Assuntos
Sarampo/transmissão , Modelos Biológicos , Prática de Saúde Pública , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Ohio/epidemiologiaRESUMO
We assessed the status of measles elimination in the United States using outbreak notification data. Measles transmissibility was assessed by estimation of the reproduction number, R, the average number of secondary cases per infection, using 4 methods; elimination requires maintaining R at <1. Method 1 estimates R as 1 minus the proportion of cases that are imported. Methods 2 and 3 estimate R by fitting a model of the spread of infection to data on the sizes and generations of chains of transmission, respectively. Method 4 assesses transmissibility before public health interventions, by estimating R for the case with the earliest symptom onset in each cluster (Rindex). During 2001-2014, R and Rindex estimates obtained using methods 1-4 were 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68, 0.76), 0.66 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.70), 0.45 (95% CI: 0.40, 0.49), and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.69), respectively. Year-to-year variability in the values of R and Rindex and an increase in transmissibility in recent years were noted with all methods. Elimination of endemic measles transmission is maintained in the United States. A suggested increase in measles transmissibility since elimination warrants continued monitoring and emphasizes the importance of high measles vaccination coverage throughout the population.
Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Programas de Imunização , Lactente , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/transmissão , Vacina contra Sarampo/uso terapêutico , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A monovalent human rotavirus vaccine (RV1) was introduced in Botswana in July 2012. We assessed the impact of RV1 vaccination on childhood gastroenteritis-related hospitalizations and deaths in 2013 and 2014. METHODS: We obtained data from registers of 4 hospitals in Botswana on hospitalizations and deaths from gastroenteritis, regardless of cause, among children <5 years of age. Gastroenteritis hospitalizations and deaths during the prevaccine period (January 2009-December 2012) were compared to the postvaccine period (January 2013-December 2014). Vaccine coverage was estimated from data collected through a concurrent vaccine effectiveness study at the same hospitals. RESULTS: By December 2014, coverage with ≥1 dose of RV1 was an estimated 90% among infants <1 year of age and 76% among children 12-23 months of age. In the prevaccine period, the annual median number of gastroenteritis-related hospitalizations in children <5 years of age was 1212, and of gastroenteritis-related deaths in children <2 years of age was 77. In the postvaccine period, gastroenteritis-related hospitalizations decreased by 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16%-29%) to 937, and gastroenteritis-related deaths decreased by 22% (95% CI, -9% to 44%) to 60. Declines were most prominent during the rotavirus season (May-October) and among infants <1 year of age, with reductions of 43% (95% CI, 34%-51%) in gastroenteritis hospitalizations and 48% (95% CI, 11%-69%) in gastroenteritis deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Following introduction of RV1 into the national immunization program, significant declines in hospitalizations and deaths from gastroenteritis were observed among children in Botswana, suggestive of the beneficial public health impact of rotavirus vaccination.
Assuntos
Criança Hospitalizada/estatística & dados numéricos , Gastroenterite/mortalidade , Gastroenterite/prevenção & controle , Programas de Imunização , Infecções por Rotavirus/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra Rotavirus/imunologia , Botsuana/epidemiologia , Pré-Escolar , Gastroenterite/epidemiologia , Gastroenterite/virologia , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Saúde Pública , Estudos Retrospectivos , Rotavirus/imunologia , Infecções por Rotavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Rotavirus/virologia , Vacinas contra Rotavirus/administração & dosagem , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Potência de Vacina , Vacinas Atenuadas/administração & dosagem , Vacinas Atenuadas/imunologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Concerns remain about lower effectiveness and waning immunity of rotavirus vaccines in resource-poor populations. We assessed vaccine effectiveness against rotavirus in Guatemala, where both the monovalent (RV1; 2-dose series) and pentavalent (RV5; 3-dose series) vaccines were introduced in 2010. METHODS: A case-control evaluation was conducted in 4 hospitals from January 2012 to August 2013. Vaccine status was compared between case patients (children with laboratory-confirmed rotavirus diarrhea) and 2 sets of controls: nondiarrhea "hospital" controls (matched by birth date and site) and nonrotavirus "test-negative" diarrhea controls (adjusted for age, birth month/year, and site). Vaccine effectiveness ([1 - odds ratio of vaccination] × 100%) was computed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: We evaluated 213 case patients, 657 hospital controls, and 334 test-negative controls. Effectiveness of 2-3 doses of a rotavirus vaccine against rotavirus requiring emergency department visit or hospitalization was 74% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58%-84%) with hospital controls, and 52% (95% CI, 26%-69%) with test-negative controls. Using hospital controls, no significant difference in effectiveness was observed between infants 6-11 months (74% [95% CI, 18%-92%]) and children ≥12 months of age (71% [95% CI, 44%-85%]) (P= .85), nor between complete courses of RV1 (63% [95% CI, 23%-82%]) and RV5 (69% [95% CI, 29%-87%]) (P= .96). An uncommon G12P[8] strain, partially heterotypic to strains in both vaccines, was identified in 89% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: RV1 and RV5 were similarly effective against severe rotavirus diarrhea caused by a heterotypic strain in Guatemala. This supports broader implementation of rotavirus vaccination in low-income countries where >90% global deaths from rotavirus occur.