Surgeons' Coaching Techniques in the Surgical Coaching for Operative Performance Enhancement (SCOPE) Program.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate coaching techniques used by practicing surgeons who underwent dedicated coach training in a peer surgical coaching program. BACKGROUND: Surgical coaching is a developing strategy for improving surgeons' intraoperative performance. How to cultivate effective coaching skills among practicing surgeons is uncertain. METHODS: Through the Surgical Coaching for Operative Performance Enhancement (SCOPE) program, 46 surgeons within 4 US academic medical centers were assigned 1:1 into coach/coachee pairs. All attended a 3-hour Surgical Coaching Workshop-developed using evidence from the fields of surgery and education-then received weekly reminders. We analyzed workshop evaluations and audio transcripts of postoperative debriefs between coach/coachee pairs, co-coding themes based on established principles of effective coaching: (i) self-identified goals, (ii) collaborative analysis, (iii) constructive feedback, and (iv) action planning. Coaching principles were cross-referenced with intraoperative performance topics: technical, nontechnical, and teaching skills. RESULTS: For the 8 postoperative debriefs analyzed, mean duration was 24.4 min (range 7-47 minutes). Overall, 326 coaching examples were identified, demonstrating application of all 4 core principles of coaching. Constructive feedback (17.6 examples per debrief) and collaborative analysis (16.3) were utilized more frequently than goal-setting (3.9) and action planning (3.0). Debriefs focused more often on nontechnical skills (60%) than technical skills (32%) or teaching-specific skills (8%). Among surgeons who completed the workshop evaluation (82% completion rate), 90% rated the Surgical Coaching Workshop "good" or "excellent." CONCLUSIONS: Short-course coach trainings can help practicing surgeons use effective coaching techniques to guide their peers' performance improvement in a way that aligns with surgical culture.

Increased Body Mass Index is Associated With Lower Risk of Hypocalcemia in Total Thyroidectomy Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Hypocalcemia following total thyroidectomy is common due to postoperative parathyroid dysfunction. We sought to identify the impact of obesity on postthyroidectomy hypocalcemia. METHODS: We performed a single-center retrospective study of all total thyroidectomies performed from 2016 to 2019 after implementation of an updated calcium supplementation protocol. Patient characteristics and outcomes were measured including body mass index (BMI), postoperative hypocalcemia (Ca <8.3), and hypocalcemic symptoms. RESULTS: Overall, 559 total thyroidectomies were performed. A total of 146 patients (26.2%) developed hypocalcemia requiring supplementation adjustment and 116 patients (20.8%) developed mild hypocalcemia symptoms. On multivariable analysis, younger patients, patients with lower preoperative calcium, and lower BMI were more likely to develop postoperative hypocalcemia (all P < 0.05). Similarly, younger patients and patients with BMI <25 were more likely to develop hypocalcemic symptoms (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Younger age and lower BMI were associated with increased risk of hypocalcemia after total thyroidectomy. These patients may benefit from preoperative and/or increased postoperative supplementation.

Paving the way for universal medical student training in serious illness communication: the Massachusetts Medical Schools' Collaborative.

BACKGROUND: Patients with serious illness look to their clinicians for discussion and guidance on high-stakes treatment decisions, which are complex, emotional and value-laden. However, required training in serious illness communication is rare in U.S. medical schools, with efforts at curricular reform stymied by competing institutional demands, lack of resources and accreditation requirements. We describe an approach to building and scaling medical student training in serious illness communication through the creation of a statewide collaborative of medical schools. METHODS: The Massachusetts Medical Schools' Collaborative is a first-of-its-kind group that promotes longitudinal, developmentally-based curricula in serious illness communication for all students. Convened externally by the Massachusetts Coalition for Serious Illness Care, the collaborative includes faculty, staff, and students from four medical schools. RESULTS: The collaborative started with listening to member's perspectives and collectively developed core competencies in serious illness communication for implementation at each school. We share early lessons on the opportunities, challenges and sustainability of our statewide collective action to influence curricular reform, which can be replicated in other topic areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our next steps include curriculum mapping, student focus groups and faculty development to guide successful and enduring implementation of the competencies to impact undergraduate medical education in Massachusetts and beyond.

Implementation of SARS-CoV2 Screening in K-12 Schools Using In-School Pooled Molecular Testing and Deconvolution by Rapid Antigen Test.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) testing is one component of a multilayered mitigation strategy to enable safe in-person school attendance for the K-12 school population. However, costs, logistics, and uncertainty about effectiveness are potential barriers to implementation. We assessed early data from the Massachusetts K-12 public school pooled SARS-CoV2 testing program, which incorporates two novel design elements: in-school "pod pooling" for assembling pools of dry anterior nasal swabs from 5 to 10 individuals and positive pool deconvolution using the BinaxNOW antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag RDT), to assess the operational and analytical feasibility of this approach. Over 3 months, 187,597 individual swabs were tested across 39,297 pools from 738 schools. The pool positivity rate was 0.8%; 98.2% of pools tested negative and 0.2% inconclusive, and 0.8% of pools submitted could not be tested. Of 310 positive pools, 70.6% had an N1 or N2 probe cycle threshold (CT) value of ≤30. In reflex testing (performed on specimens newly collected from members of the positive pool), 92.5% of fully deconvoluted pools with an N1 or N2 target CT of ≤30 identified a positive individual using the BinaxNOW test performed 1 to 3 days later. However, of 124 positive pools with full reflex testing data available for analysis, 32 (25.8%) of BinaxNOW pool deconvolution testing attempts did not identify a positive individual, requiring additional reflex testing. With sufficient staffing support and low pool positivity rates, pooled sample collection and reflex testing were feasible for schools. These early program findings confirm that screening for K-12 students and staff is achievable at scale with a scheme that incorporates in-school pooling, primary testing by reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR), and Ag RDT reflex/deconvolution testing.

Completion Thyroidectomy is Less Common Following Updated 2015 American Thyroid Association Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines recommended that low-risk, differentiated thyroid cancers (DTC) between 1 and 4 cm may be treated with thyroid lobectomy alone. We sought to determine the effect of these guideline changes on the rate of completion thyroidectomy (CT) for low-risk DTC and factors influencing surgical decision-making. METHODS: All patients from 2014 to 2018 who received an initial thyroid lobectomy at our institution with final pathology demonstrating DTC were included. Patients were divided into "pre" and "post" guideline cohorts (2014-2015 and 2016-2018, respectively). The rate of CT was compared between the two cohorts. Patient demographics and tumor characteristics were examined for association with CT. RESULTS: A total of 163 patients met study criteria: 63 patients in the 2014-2015 ("pre") and 100 in the 2016-2018 ("post") group. In the "pre" period, 41 (65.1%) patients received CT compared with 43 (43.0%) in the "post" period (p < 0.01)-a 34% decrease in the rate of completion surgery (p < 0.01). Of low-risk patients with DTC between 1 and 4 cm in size, 17 of 35 (48.6%) received CT in the "pre" period compared with 15 of 60 (25.0%) in the post period-a 48.6% decrease in the rate of completion surgery (p = 0.02). Greater tumor size, capsular invasion, and multifocality were associated with CT in low-risk "post" guideline patients (p < 0.05 for all). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of CT decreased significantly by 48.6% for low-risk patients with DTC between 1 and 4 cm, demonstrating recognition of the 2015 ATA guidelines. However, 25% of these patients underwent CT, suggesting additional factors influencing the decision for further treatment.

Outcomes of a Coaching-Based WHO Safe Childbirth Checklist Program in India.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of facility-based childbirth in low-resource settings has increased dramatically during the past two decades, yet gaps in the quality of care persist and mortality remains high. The World Health Organization (WHO) Safe Childbirth Checklist, a quality-improvement tool, promotes systematic adherence to practices that have been associated with improved childbirth outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a matched-pair, cluster-randomized, controlled trial in 60 pairs of facilities across 24 districts of Uttar Pradesh, India, testing the effect of the BetterBirth program, an 8-month coaching-based implementation of the Safe Childbirth Checklist, on a composite outcome of perinatal death, maternal death, or maternal severe complications within 7 days after delivery. Outcomes - assessed 8 to 42 days after delivery - were compared between the intervention group and the control group with adjustment for clustering and matching. We also compared birth attendants' adherence to 18 essential birth practices in 15 matched pairs of facilities at 2 and 12 months after the initiation of the intervention. RESULTS: Of 161,107 eligible women, we enrolled 157,689 (97.9%) and determined 7-day outcomes for 157,145 (99.7%) mother-newborn dyads. Among 4888 observed births, birth attendants' mean practice adherence was significantly higher in the intervention group than in the control group (72.8% vs. 41.7% at 2 months; 61.7% vs. 43.9% at 12 months; P<0.001 for both comparisons). However, there was no significant difference between the trial groups either in the composite primary outcome (15.1% in the intervention group and 15.3% in the control group; relative risk, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 1.18; P=0.90) or in secondary maternal or perinatal adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Birth attendants' adherence to essential birth practices was higher in facilities that used the coaching-based WHO Safe Childbirth Checklist program than in those that did not, but maternal and perinatal mortality and maternal morbidity did not differ significantly between the two groups. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Clinical Trials number, NCT02148952 .).

Multisource Evaluation of Surgeon Behavior Is Associated With Malpractice Claims.

OBJECTIVE: We merged direct, multisource, and systematic assessments of surgeon behavior with malpractice claims, to analyze the relationship between surgeon 360-degree reviews and malpractice history. BACKGROUND: Previous work suggests that malpractice claims are associated with a poor physician-patient relationship, which is likely related to behaviors captured by 360-degree review. We hypothesize that 360-degree review results are associated with malpractice claims. METHODS: Surgeons from 4 academic medical centers covered by a common malpractice carrier underwent 360-degree review in 2012 to 2013 (n = 385). Matched, de-identified reviews and malpractice claims data were available for 264 surgeons from 2000 to 2015. We analyzed 23 questions, highlighting positive and negative behaviors within the domains of education, excellence, humility, openness, respect, service, and teamwork. Regression analysis with robust standard error was used to assess the potential association between 360-degree review results and malpractice claims. RESULTS: The range of claims among the 264 surgeons was 0 to 8, with 48.1% of surgeons having at least 1 claim. Multiple positive and negative behaviors were significantly associated with the risk of having malpractice claims (P < 0.05). Surgeons in the bottom decile for several items had an increased likelihood of having at least 1 claim. CONCLUSION: Surgeon behavior, as assessed by 360-degree review, is associated with malpractice claims. These findings highlight the importance of teamwork and communication in exposure to malpractice. Although the nature of malpractice claims is complex and multifactorial, the identification and modification of negative physician behaviors may mitigate malpractice risk and ultimately result in the improved quality of patient care.

Effect of Noninvasive Follicular Thyroid Neoplasm with Papillary-Like Nuclear Features (NIFTP) on Malignancy Rates in Thyroid Nodules: How to Counsel Patients on Extent of Surgery.

PURPOSE: To investigate the impact of the nomenclature change to "noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features" (NIFTP) on reported malignancy rates following thyroidectomy. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of patients with thyroid nodules sampled preoperatively with fine-needle aspiration (FNA) and subsequently removed at one tertiary-care hospital from 4/2016 to 2/2017. Surgical procedure, anatomic pathology, thyroid cytopathology classification, and demographic characteristics were recorded. RESULTS: Thyroidectomy was performed in 353 patients. Twenty-six patients (7.3%) had NIFTP on anatomic pathology. Preoperative FNA demonstrated atypia of undetermined significance (AUS/Bethesda III) in 13 (50%), suspicious for malignancy (SUS/Bethesda V) in 6 (23%), suspicious for follicular neoplasm (SFN/Bethesda IV) in 4 (15%), benign/Bethesda I in 2 (8%), and malignant/Bethesda VI in 1 (4%). Invasive malignancy rates across cytologic categories changed as follows: benign (n = 74) from 4 to 1%, AUS (n = 85) from 33 to 18% (p < 0.05), SFN (n = 58) from 29 to 22%, SUS (n = 33) from 91 to 73% (p < 0.05), and malignant (n = 99) from 99 to 98%. Overall decrease in invasive malignancy was 7.3% for the entire population and 13.1% for indeterminate preoperative FNA cytology (Bethesda III-V). Among 26 NIFTP patients, 17 had thyroid lobectomy (TL) and 9 underwent total thyroidectomy (TT). Eight of the nine patients with TT could have been definitively treated with TL, an 89% decrease. CONCLUSIONS: The NIFTP nomenclature change led to an overall decrease in the malignancy rate at our institution, especially for Bethesda III-V categories. Patients may be counseled toward more conservative surgical options if NIFTP is in the differential.

The Posterior Adiposity Index: A Quantitative Selection Tool for Adrenalectomy Approach.

BACKGROUND: Objective criteria are lacking to determine whether a laparoscopic transabdominal (LA) or retroperitoneoscopic (RP) approach to adrenalectomy is optimal. We hypothesized that imaging characteristics could predict patients for whom RP adrenalectomy is the optimal approach. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of all patients undergoing minimally invasive adrenalectomy between 2014 and 2016 (n = 113) at one institution. Imaging measurements included distances between the skin and Gerota's fascia (S-GF), upper borders of adrenal and kidney (A-K), adrenal and 12th rib (A-R), 12th rib and iliac crest (R-IC), and perinephric fat (PNF). These characteristics plus patient body mass index, gender, age, tumor size, and diagnosis were compared with operative time and estimated blood loss using Pearson's correlation or ANOVA. Multivariable linear regression also identified independent predictors of operative time. RESULTS: Half of patients underwent LA (n = 57) and RP adrenalectomy (n = 56). Median age was 57 y; 60% were female. Mean tumor size was 3.2 cm. Higher body mass index patients were more likely to undergo LA (P = 0.03). Increasing lesion size modestly correlated with longer operative time (r = 0.341). On bivariate analysis, S-GF and PNF distances moderately correlated with operative time (r = 0.464 and 0.494) for RP procedures. The sum of S-GF and PNF generated a Posterior Adiposity Index (PAI). The PAI strongly correlated with operative time for RP (r = 0.590). Nothing was significantly associated with estimated blood loss. Multivariate analysis revealed larger lesions (P = 0.025) and increasing PAI (P = 0.019) were predictive of longer operative time, with PAI ≥9 conferring the greatest risk (P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Smaller tumors and PAI <9 are associated with shorter operative times in RP adrenalectomy. Surgeons can utilize preoperative images to calculate the PAI and determine whether an RP approach would be favorable.

Availability of Safe Childbirth Supplies in 284 Facilities in Uttar Pradesh, India.

Objectives Vital to implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Safe Childbirth Checklist (SCC), designed to improve delivery of 28 essential birth practices (EBPs), is the availability of safe birth supplies: 22 EBPs on the SCC require one or more supplies. Mapping availability of these supplies can determine the scope of shortages and need for supply chain strengthening. Methods A cross-sectional survey on the availability of functional and/or unexpired supplies was assessed in 284 public-sector facilities in 38 districts in Uttar Pradesh, India. The twenty-three supplies were categorized into three non-mutually exclusive groups: maternal (8), newborn (9), and infection control (6). Proportions and mean number of supplies available were calculated; means were compared across facility types using t-tests and across districts using a one-way ANOVA. Log-linear regression was used to evaluate facility characteristics associated with supply availability. Results Across 284 sites, an average of 16.9 (73.5%) of 23 basic childbirth supplies were available: 63.4% of maternal supplies, 79.1% of newborn supplies, and 78.7% of infection control supplies. No facility had all 23 supplies available and only 8.5% had all four medicines assessed. Significant variability was observed by facility type and district. In the linear model, facility type and distance from district hospital were significant predictors of higher supply availability. Conclusions for Practice In Uttar Pradesh, more remote sites, and primary and community health centers, were at higher risk of supply shortages. Supply chain management must be improved for facility-based delivery and quality of care initiatives to reduce maternal and neonatal harm.

4D-CT is Superior to Ultrasound and Sestamibi for Localizing Recurrent Parathyroid Disease.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) presents a diagnostic challenge in localizing a hyperfunctioning gland. Although several imaging modalities are available for preoperative localization, 4D-CT is increasingly utilized for its ability to locate both smaller and previously unlocalized lesions. Currently, there is a paucity of data evaluating the utility of 4D-CT in the reoperative setting compared with ultrasound (US) and sestamibi. We aimed to determine the sensitivity of 4D-CT in localizing parathyroid adenomas in recurrent or persistent PHPT. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of prospectively collected data from a tertiary-care hospital, and identified 58 patients who received preoperative 4D-CT with US and/or sestamibi between May 2008 and March 2016. Data regarding the size, shape, and number of parathyroid lesions were collected for each patient. RESULTS: A total of 62 lesions were identified intraoperatively among the 58 patients (6 with multigland disease) included in this investigation. 4D-CT missed 13 lesions identified intraoperatively, compared with 32 and 22 lesions missed by US and sestamibi, respectively. Sensitivity for correct lateralization of culprit lesions was 77.4% for 4D-CT, 38.5% for US, and 46% for sestamibi. 4D-CT was superior in lateralizing adenomas (49/62) compared with US (20/52; p < 0.001) and sestamibi (18/47; p < 0.001). The overall cure rate (6-month postoperative calcium < 10.7 mg/dL) was 89.7%. All patients with lesions correctly lateralized by 4D-CT were cured at 6 months. CONCLUSION: 4D-CT localized parathyroid adenomas with higher sensitivity among patients with recurrent or persistent PHPT compared with sestamibi or US-based imaging.

Reasons Associated with Total Thyroidectomy as Initial Surgical Management of an Indeterminate Thyroid Nodule.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic hemithyroidectomy (HT) is the most widely recommended surgical procedure for a nodule with indeterminate cytology; however, additional details may make initial total thyroidectomy (TT) preferable. We sought to identify patient-specific factors (PSFs) associated with initial TT in patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all patients with a thyroid nodule ≥ 1 cm and initial cytology of atypia of undetermined significance or suspicious for follicular neoplasm between 2012 and 2015 who underwent thyroidectomy. Medical records were reviewed for patient demographics, neck symptoms, nodule size, cytology, molecular test results, final histopathology, and additional PSFs influencing surgical management. Variables were analyzed to determine associations with the use of initial TT. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent associations. RESULTS: Of 325 included patients, 182/325 (56.0%) had HT and 143/325 (44.0%) had TT. While patient age and sex, nodule size, and cytology result were not associated with initial treatment, five PSFs were associated with initial TT (p < 0.0001). These included contralateral nodules, hypothyroidism, fluorodeoxyglucose avidity on positron emission tomography scan, family history of thyroid cancer, and increased surgical risk. At least one PSF was present in 126/143 (88.1%) TT patients versus 47/182 (25.8%) HT patients (p < 0.0001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that these variables were the strongest independent predictor of TT (odds ratio 45.93, 95% confidence interval 18.80-112.23, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: When surgical management of an indeterminate cytology thyroid nodule was performed, several PSFs were associated with a preference by surgeons and patients for initial TT, which may be useful to consider in making decisions on initial operative extent.

Perception of Safety of Surgical Practice Among Operating Room Personnel From Survey Data Is Associated With All-cause 30-day Postoperative Death Rate in South Carolina.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the perception of safety of surgical practice among operating room (OR) personnel is associated with hospital-level 30-day postoperative death. BACKGROUND: The relationship between improvements in the safety of surgical practice and benefits to postoperative outcomes has not been demonstrated empirically. METHODS: As part of the Safe Surgery 2015: South Carolina initiative, a baseline survey measuring the perception of safety of surgical practice among OR personnel was completed. We evaluated the relationship between hospital-level mean item survey scores and rates of all-cause 30-day postoperative death using binomial regression. Models were controlled for multiple patient, hospital, and procedure covariates using supervised principal components regression. RESULTS: The overall survey response rate was 38.1% (1793/4707) among 31 hospitals. For every 1 point increase in the hospital-level mean score for respect [adjusted relative risk (aRR) 0.78, 95% CI 0.65-0.93, P = 0.0059], clinical leadership (aRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74-0.9932, P = 0.0401), and assertiveness (aRR 0.71, 95% CI 0.54-0.93, P = 0.01) among all survey respondents, there were associated decreases in the hospital-level 30-day postoperative death rate after inpatient surgery ranging from 14% to 29%. Higher hospital-level mean scores for the statement, "I would feel safe being treated here as a patient," were associated with significantly lower hospital-level 30-day postoperative death rates (aRR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.97, P = 0.02). Although most findings seen among all OR personnel were seen among nurses, they were often absent among surgeons. CONCLUSIONS: Perception of OR safety of surgical practice was associated with hospital-level 30-day postoperative death rates.

Mortality Trends After a Voluntary Checklist-based Surgical Safety Collaborative.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether completion of a voluntary, checklist-based surgical quality improvement program is associated with reduced 30-day postoperative mortality. BACKGROUND: Despite evidence of efficacy of team-based surgical safety checklists in improving perioperative outcomes in research trials, effective methods of population-based implementation have been lacking. The Safe Surgery 2015 South Carolina program was designed to foster state-wide engagement of hospitals in a voluntary, collaborative implementation of a checklist program. METHODS: We compared postoperative mortality rates after inpatient surgery in South Carolina utilizing state-wide all-payer discharge claims from 2008 to 2013, linked with state vital statistics, stratifying hospitals on the basis of completion of the checklist program. Changes in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality were compared between hospitals, using propensity score-adjusted difference-in-differences analysis. RESULTS: Fourteen hospitals completed the program by December 2013. Before program launch, there was no difference in mortality trends between the completion cohort and all others (P = 0.33), but postoperative mortality diverged thereafter (P = 0.021). Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality among completers was 3.38% in 2010 and 2.84% in 2013 (P < 0.00001), whereas mortality among other hospitals (n = 44) was 3.50% in 2010 and 3.71% in 2013 (P = 0.3281), reflecting a 22% difference between the groups on difference-in-differences analysis (P = 0.0021). CONCLUSIONS: Despite similar pre-existing rates and trends of postoperative mortality, hospitals in South Carolina completing a voluntary checklist-based surgical quality improvement program had a reduction in deaths after inpatient surgery over the first 3 years of the collaborative compared with other hospitals in the state. This may indicate that effective large-scale implementation of a team-based surgical safety checklist is feasible.

Recommendations for Best Communication Practices to Facilitate Goal-concordant Care for Seriously Ill Older Patients With Emergency Surgical Conditions.

OBJECTIVE: To address the need for improved communication practices to facilitate goal-concordant care in seriously ill, older patients with surgical emergencies. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Improved communication is increasingly recognized as a central element in providing goal-concordant care and reducing health care utilization and costs among seriously ill older patients. Given high rates of surgery in the last weeks of life, high risk of poor outcomes after emergency operations in these patients, and barriers to quality communication in the acute setting, we sought to create a framework to support surgeons in communicating with seriously ill, older patients with surgical emergencies. METHODS: An interdisciplinary panel of 23 national leaders was convened for a 1-day conference at Harvard Medical School to provide input on concept, content, format, and usability of a communication framework. A prototype framework was created. RESULTS: Participants supported the concept of a structured approach to communication in these scenarios, and delineated 9 key elements of a framework: (1) formulating prognosis, (2) creating a personal connection, (3) disclosing information regarding the acute problem in the context of the underlying illness, (4) establishing a shared understanding of the patient's condition, (5) allowing silence and dealing with emotion, (6) describing surgical and palliative treatment options, (7) eliciting patient's goals and priorities, (8) making a treatment recommendation, and (9) affirming ongoing support for the patient and family. CONCLUSIONS: Communication with seriously ill patients in the acute setting is difficult. The proposed communication framework may assist surgeons in delivering goal-concordant care for high-risk patients.

Proposed minimum rates of surgery to support desirable health outcomes: an observational study based on four strategies.

BACKGROUND: The global volume of surgery in 2012 is estimated at 312·9 million operations per year, but rates of surgery vary substantially. Maternal health advocates proposed minimum caesarean delivery rates for benchmarking and to improve perinatal outcomes; however, this has not been done for surgery because the association between rates of surgical care provision as a whole and population health outcomes have not been well described. We use available data to estimate minimum rates of surgery that are associated with important health indicators. METHODS: We defined surgical operations as procedures done in operating theatres that need general or regional anaesthesia or profound sedation to control pain. We used four strategies to identify rates of surgery based on estimated rates of surgery per country for 2012 associated with life expectancy of 74-75 years; estimated rates of surgery associated with a maternal mortality ratio of less than or equal to 100 per 100 000 live births; estimated minimum need for surgery in the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions based on the prevalence of disorders; and surgical rates from the so-called 4C countries (Chile, China, Costa Rica, and Cuba) identified in The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery as exemplary for their achievement of high health status, despite resource limitations. FINDINGS: Based on 2012 national surgical rates, countries with reported life expectancy of 74-75 years (n=17) had a median surgical rate of 4392 (IQR 2897-4873) operations per 100 000 population annually. The median surgical rate associated with maternal mortality ratio lower than 100 (n=109) is 5028 (IQR 4139-6778) operations per 100 000 population annually. The median surgical rate estimated for all 21 GBD regions was 4669 (IQR 4339-5291) operations per 100 000 population annually. The 4C countries had a mean surgical rate of 4344 (95% CI 2620-6068) operations per 100 000 population annually. 13 of the 21 GBD regions, accounting for 78% of the world's population, do not achieve the lowest end of the surgical rate range. INTERPRETATION: We identified a surprisingly narrow range of surgical rates associated with important health indicators. This target range can be used for benchmarking of surgical services, and as part of a policy aimed at strengthening health-care systems and surgical capacity. FUNDING: None.

Projections to achieve minimum surgical rate threshold: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Recent work has indicated an increase in surgical services, especially in resource poor settings. However, the rate of growth is poorly understood and likely insufficient to meet public health needs. We previously identified a range of 4344 to 5028 operations per 100 000 population annually to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population. We evaluate rates of growth in surgery and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. METHODS: We aggregated 2004 and 2012 country-level surgical rate estimates into the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size and estimate rate of growth between these years. We then extrapolated the time it will take to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population based on linear rates of change. FINDINGS: All but two regions (central Europe and southern Latin America) experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years; the fastest growth occurred in regions with the lowest surgical rates. 14 regions representing 79% of the world's population (5·5 billion people) did not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity grows at current rates, seven regions (central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, north Africa and middle east, south Asia, southeast Asia, and western sub-Saharan Africa) will not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold by 2035; Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach this level until 2124. INTERPRETATION: The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable, but the largest growth rates were noted in the poorest regions. Although this study does not address the quality of care, and rates of surgery are unlikely to change linearly, this exercise is useful to project how many years it could take regions to reach specific surgical rates. At current rates of growth, 4·9 billion people (70% of the world's population) will still be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgery in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met as part of integrated health system development. FUNDING: None.

Variability in mortality after caesarean delivery, appendectomy, and groin hernia repair in low-income and middle-income countries: implications for expanding surgical services.

BACKGROUND: While surgical interventions occur at lower rates in resource-poor settings, rates of complication and death after surgery are substantial but have not been well quantified. A deeper understanding of outcomes is a crucial step to ensure that quality accompanies increased global access to surgical care. We aimed to assess mortality following surgery to assess the risks of such interventions in these environments. METHODS: We collected the most recent demographic, health, and economic data from WHO for 114 countries classified as low-income or lower-middle-income according to the World Bank in 2005. We searched OVID, MedLine, PubMed, and SCOPUS to identify studies in these countries reporting all-cause mortality after three commonly performed operations: caesarean delivery, appendectomy, and groin hernia repair. Reports from governmental and other agencies were also identified. We modelled surgical mortality rates for countries without reported data with the lasso technique that performs continuous variable subset selection to avoid model overfitting. We validated our model against known case fatality rates for caesarean delivery. We aggregated mortality results by subregion to account for variability in data availability. We then created collective surgical case fatality rates by WHO region. FINDINGS: We identified 42 countries with mortality data for at least one of the three procedures. Median reported mortality rates were 7·7 per 1000 operations for caesarean delivery (IQR 3-14), 4·0 per 1000 operations for appendectomy (IQR 0-17), and 4·7 per 1000 operations for hernia groin (IQR 0-13); all recorded deaths occurred during the same admission to hospital as the operation. Based on our model, case fatality rate estimates by subregion ranged from 0·7 (central Europe) to 13·9 (central sub-Saharan Africa) per 1000 caesarean deliveries, 5·6 (central Asia) to 6·4 (central sub-Saharan Africa) per 1000 appendectomies, and 3·5 (tropical Latin America) to 33·9 (central sub-Saharan Africa) per 1000 hernia repairs. INTERPRETATION: All-cause postoperative mortality rates are exceedingly variable within resource-constrained environments, and substantially higher than those in middle-income and high-income settings. Efforts to expand surgical access and provision of services must include a strong commitment to improve the safety and quality of care. FUNDING: None.

Estimate of the global volume of surgery in 2012: an assessment supporting improved health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: It was previously estimated that 234·2 million operations were performed worldwide in 2004. The association between surgical rates and population health outcomes is not clear. We re-estimated global surgical volume to track changes over time and assess rates associated with healthy populations. METHODS: We gathered demographic, health, and economic data for 194 WHO member states. Surgical volumes were obtained from published studies and other reports from 2005 onwards. We estimated rates of surgery for all countries without available data based on health expenditure in 2012 and assessed the proportion of surgery comprised by caesarean delivery. The rate of surgery was plotted against life expectancy to describe the association between surgical care and this health indicator. FINDINGS: We identified 66 countries reporting surgical data between 2005 and 2013. We estimate that 312·9 million operations (95% CI 266·2-359·5) took place in 2012-a 33·6% increase over 8 years; the largest proportional increase occurred in countries spending US$400 or less per capita on health care. Caesarean delivery comprised 29·8% (5·8 million operations) of the total surgical volume in poor health expenditure countries compared with 10·8% (7·8 million operations) in low health expenditure countries and 2·7% (5·1 million operations) in high health expenditure countries. We noted a correlation between increased life expectancy and increased surgical rates up to 1533 operations per 100 000 people, with significant but less dramatic improvement above this rate. INTERPRETATION: Surgical volume is large and continues to grow in all economic environments. A single procedure-caesarean delivery-comprised almost a third of surgical volume in the most resource-limited settings. Surgical care is an essential part of health care and is associated with increased life expectancy, yet many low-income countries fail to achieve basic levels of service. Improvements in capacity and delivery of surgical services must be a major component of health system strengthening. FUNDING: None.