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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Around 750,000 patients per year will be cured of HCV infection until 2030. Those with compensated advanced chronic liver disease remain at risk for hepatic decompensation and de novo HCC. Algorithms have been developed to stratify risk early after cure; however, data on long-term outcomes and the prognostic utility of these risk stratification algorithms at later time points are lacking. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 2335 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (liver stiffness measurement≥10 kPa) who achieved HCV-cure by interferon-free therapies from 15 European centers (median age 60.2±11.9 y, 21.1% obesity, 21.2% diabetes).During a median follow-up of 6 years, first hepatic decompensation occurred in 84 patients (3.6%, incidence rate: 0.74%/y, cumulative incidence at 6 y: 3.2%); 183 (7.8%) patients developed de novo HCC (incidence rate: 1.60%/y, cumulative incidence at 6 y: 8.3%), with both risks being strictly linear over time.Baveno VII criteria to exclude (FU-liver stiffness measurement <12 kPa and follow-up platelet count >150 g/L) or rule-in (FU-liver stiffness measurement ≥25 kPa) clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) stratified the risk of hepatic decompensation with proportional hazards. Estimated probability of CSPH discriminated patients developing versus not developing hepatic decompensation in the gray zone (ie, patients meeting none of the above criteria).Published HCC risk stratification algorithms identified high-incidence and low-incidence groups; however, the size of the latter group varied substantially (9.9%-69.1%). A granular "HCC-sustained virologic response" model was developed to inform an individual patient's HCC risk after HCV-cure. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease, the risks of hepatic decompensation and HCC remain constant after HCV-cure, even in the long term (>3 y). One-time post-treatment risk stratification based on noninvasive criteria provides important prognostic information that is maintained during long-term follow-up, as the hazards remain proportional over time.
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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Baveno VII has defined a clinically significant (i.e., prognostically meaningful) decrease in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in cACLD as a decrease of ≥20% associated with a final LSM <20 kPa or any decrease to <10 kPa. However, these rules have not yet been validated against direct clinical endpoints. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with cACLD (LSM ≥10 kPa) with paired liver stiffness measurement (LSM) before (BL) and after (FU) HCV cure by interferon-free therapies from 15 European centres. The cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation was compared according to these criteria, considering hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing risks. RESULTS: A total of 2,335 patients followed for a median of 6 years were analysed. Median BL-LSM was 16.6 kPa with 37.1% having ≥20 kPa. After HCV cure, FU-LSM decreased to a median of 10.9 kPa (<10 kPa: 1,002 [42.9%], ≥20 kPa: 465 [19.9%]) translating into a median LSM change of -5.3 (-8.8 to -2.4) kPa corresponding to -33.9 (-48.0 to -15.9) %. Patients achieving a clinically significant decrease (65.4%) had a significantly lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio: 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35, p <0.001). However, these risk differences were primarily driven by a negligible risk in patients with FU-LSM <10 kPa (5-year cumulative incidence: 0.3%) compared to a high risk in patients with FU-LSM ≥20 kPa (16.6%). Patients with FU-LSM 10-19.9 kPa (37.4%) also had a low risk of hepatic decompensation (5-year cumulative incidence: 1.7%), and importantly, the risk of hepatic decompensation did not differ between those with/without an LSM decrease of ≥20% (p = 0.550). CONCLUSIONS: FU-LSM is key for risk stratification after HCV cure and should guide clinical decision making. LSM dynamics do not hold significant prognostic information in patients with FU-LSM 10-19.9 kPa, and thus, their consideration is not of sufficient incremental value in the specific context of HCV cure. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is increasingly applied as a prognostic biomarker and commonly decreases in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease achieving HCV cure. Although Baveno VII proposed criteria for a clinically significant decrease, little is known about the prognostic utility of LSM dynamics (changes through antiviral therapy). Interestingly, in those with a post-treatment LSM of 10-19.9 kPa, LSM dynamics did not provide incremental information, arguing against the consideration of LSM dynamics as prognostic criteria. Thus, post-treatment LSM should guide the management of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease achieving HCV cure.
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Técnicas de Imagem por Elasticidade , Hepatite C Crônica , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Técnicas de Imagem por Elasticidade/métodos , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Cirrose Hepática/epidemiologia , Prognóstico , Idoso , Fígado/diagnóstico por imagem , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/etiologia , Adulto , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiologia , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/etiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a leading cause of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Portal hypertension drives hepatic decompensation and is best diagnosed by hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement. Here, we investigate the prognostic value of HVPG in MASLD-related compensated ACLD (MASLD-cACLD). METHODS: This European multicentre study included patients with MASLD-cACLD characterised by HVPG at baseline. Hepatic decompensation (variceal bleeding/ascites/hepatic encephalopathy) and liver-related mortality were considered the primary events of interest. RESULTS: A total of 340 patients with MASLD-cACLD (56.2% male; median age 62 [55-68] years, median MELD 8 [7-9], 71.2% with diabetes) were included. Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) was found in 209 patients (61.5%). During a median follow-up of 41.5 (27.5-65.8) months, 65 patients developed hepatic decompensation with a cumulative incidence of 10.0% after 2 years (2Y) and 30.7% after 5 years (5Y) in those with MASLD-cACLD with CSPH, compared to 2.4% after 2Y and 9.4% after 5Y in patients without CSPH. Variceal bleeding did not occur without CSPH. CSPH (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 5.13; p <0.001) was associated with an increased decompensation risk and a higher HVPG remained an independent risk factor in the multivariable model (adjusted SHR per mmHg: 1.12, p <0.001). Liver-related mortality occurred in 37 patients at a cumulative incidence of 3.3% after 2Y and 21.4% after 5Y in CSPH. Without CSPH, the incidence after 5Y was 0.8%. Accordingly, a higher HVPG was also independently associated with a higher risk of liver-related death (adjusted SHR per mmHg: 1.20, p <0.001). CONCLUSION: HVPG measurement is of high prognostic value in MASLD-cACLD. In patients with MASLD-cACLD without CSPH, the short-term risk of decompensation is very low and liver-related mortality is rare, while the presence of CSPH substantially increases the risk of both. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: While the incidence of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is increasing worldwide, insights into the impact of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) on the risk of liver-related events in MASLD-cACLD remain limited. Based on the findings of this European multicentre study including 340 MASLD-cACLD patients, we could show that increasing HVPG values and the presence of CSPH in particular were associated with a significantly higher risk of first hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality. In contrast, the short-term incidence of decompensation in patients with MASLD-cACLD without CSPH was low and the risk of liver-mortality remained negligible. Thus, HVPG measurements can provide important prognostic information for individualised risk stratification in MASLD-cACLD and may help facilitate the study of novel and promising treatment possibilities for MASLD.
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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (EGD) remains the gold standard for detecting varices in cirrhosis, the Baveno VI criteria proposed a combination of transient elastography and platelet count that could rule out high-risk varices, therefore sparing the need for an endoscopy, with significant potential cost savings. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of the Baveno VI criteria compared with EGD in the diagnosis of high-risk varices in cirrhosis. METHODS: We built an analytical decision model to estimate the cost and benefits of using the Baveno VI criteria compared with EGD in patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis. The analysis was performed from the UK National Health Service perspective, over 1, 5, and 20 years. A Markov model was populated with data from published evidence. Outcomes were measured in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and avoided deaths. The analyses were repeated for Canada and Spain, using relevant cost inputs. RESULTS: The Baveno VI criteria were cost effective compared with endoscopy in all analyses. For 1000 patients, they produced 0.16 additional QALYs at an incremental cost of £326 ($443.41) over 5 years, resulting in an incremental cost of £2081 ($2830) per additional QALY gained. The incremental net monetary benefit of Baveno VI compared with EGD was £2808 ($3819) over 5 years per patient. Baveno VI criteria also were cost effective in Canada and Spain. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis supported these findings. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate that the Baveno VI criteria are cost effective, suggesting that they should be considered for widespread implementation on the basis of safety, appropriateness, and economic grounds.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency is an inherited disorder caused by alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) mutations. We analysed the association between alcohol intake and liver-related parameters in individuals with the heterozygous/homozygous Pi*Z AAT variant (Pi*MZ/Pi*ZZ genotype) found in the United Kingdom Biobank and the European Alpha1 liver consortium. METHODS: Reported alcohol consumption was evaluated in two cohorts: (i) the community-based United Kingdom Biobank (17 145 Pi*MZ, 141 Pi*ZZ subjects, and 425 002 non-carriers [Pi*MM]); and (ii) the European Alpha1 liver consortium (561 Pi*ZZ individuals). Cohort (ii) included measurements of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT). RESULTS: In both cohorts, no/low alcohol intake was reported by >80% of individuals, while harmful consumption was rare (~1%). Among Pi*MM and Pi*MZ individuals from cohort (i), moderate alcohol consumption resulted in a <30% increased rate of elevated transaminases and ~50% increase in elevated gamma-glutamyl transferase values, while harmful alcohol intake led to an at least twofold increase in the abnormal levels. In Pi*ZZ individuals from both cohorts, moderate alcohol consumption had no marked impact on serum transaminase levels. Among Pi*ZZ subjects from cohort (ii) who reported no/low alcohol consumption, those with increased CDT levels more often had signs of advanced liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: Pi*MZ/Pi*ZZ genotype does not seem to markedly aggravate the hepatic toxicity of moderate alcohol consumption. CDT values might be helpful to detect alcohol consumption in those with advanced fibrosis. More data are needed to evaluate the impact of harmful alcohol consumption.
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The progressive use of noninvasive tests (NITs) has changed the way hepatologists diagnose and manage patients with chronic liver disease, mainly because of their easiness to use and the ability to be repeated during follow-up. Liver stiffness measurement is the NIT with more scientific evidence. NITs have demonstrated to be useful to detect not only liver fibrosis but also the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension. Moreover, current evidence supports they can also be useful to evaluate the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease.
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Técnicas de Imagem por Elasticidade , Hipertensão Portal , Cirrose Hepática , Humanos , Hipertensão Portal/diagnóstico , Hipertensão Portal/etiologia , Hipertensão Portal/fisiopatologia , Cirrose Hepática/diagnóstico , Cirrose Hepática/complicações , Cirrose Hepática/fisiopatologia , Fígado/diagnóstico por imagem , Fígado/patologia , Fígado/fisiopatologia , Prognóstico , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/diagnóstico , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/etiologiaRESUMO
Platform trials bring the promise of making clinical research more efficient and more patient centric. While their use has become more widespread, including their prominent role during the COVID-19 pandemic response, broader adoption of platform trials has been limited by the lack of experience and tools to navigate the critical upfront planning required to launch such collaborative studies. The European Union-Patient-cEntric clinicAl tRial pLatform (EU-PEARL) initiative has produced new methodologies to expand the use of platform trials with an overarching infrastructure and services embedded into Integrated Research Platforms (IRPs), in collaboration with patient representatives and through consultation with U.S. Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency stakeholders. In this narrative review, we discuss the outlook for platform trials in Europe, including challenges related to infrastructure, design, adaptations, data sharing and regulation. Documents derived from the EU-PEARL project, alongside a literature search including PubMed and relevant grey literature (e.g., guidance from regulatory agencies and health technology agencies) were used as sources for a multi-stage collaborative process through which the 10 more important points based on lessons drawn from the EU-PEARL project were developed and summarised as guidance for the setup of platform trials. We conclude that early involvement of critical stakeholder such as regulatory agencies or patients are critical steps in the implementation and later acceptance of platform trials. Addressing these gaps will be critical for attaining the full potential of platform trials for patients. Funding: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking with support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA.
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BACKGROUND: The EU Patient-cEntric clinicAl tRial pLatforms (EU-PEARL) project (IMI2-853966) aimed to develop tools to establish integrated research platforms (IRP) for conducting adaptive-design trials in various diseases, including metabolic-dysfunction associated steatohepatitis (MASH). One essential component of a successful MASH IRP is a robust and reliable Clinical Research Network (CRN). Herein, we outline the required elements and anticipated steps to set-up such a CRN. METHODS: We identified European clinical research sites that could potentially serve as the foundation for MASH IRP and a CRN. A survey was sent to sites to assess their interest in joining a CRN, their familiarity with platform trials, and their capacity to participate in a future MASH IRP. RESULTS: A total of 141 investigators were invited to participate in the survey, and 40% responded. More than half of the answers (52%) identify MASH with advanced fibrosis (F3-4) as the subpopulation with the greatest unmet need. Regarding the difficulty in identifying candidates for trials, 65% find it is moderately difficult and 30% very difficult. Most respondents (94%) believe that a platform trial could offer substantial benefits to patients. Nearly all researchers express interest in participating in a platform trial (78%), with 22% indicating their interest would be contingent on initial industry funding. CONCLUSION: While preliminary, our findings on responding sites are encouraging for the potential establishment of a CRN for a MASH IRP. However, funding schemes and sustainability strategies to provide proof-of-platform in MASH seem key in the short-term scenario.
Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) occurs when the liver becomes damaged due to the build up of fat, which is often related to obesity and diabetes. There is a lack of effective drug treatments for MASH, so strategies to strengthen clinical research in this area are needed. Here, we survey key European experts on MASH to assess their interest in joining a network of MASH researchers and their interest in participating in a new type of clinical trial called a platform trial, where multiple drugs can be tested simultaneously. Researchers largely agree that these are promising approaches to boost drug development in the field, although have concerns regarding funding and sustainability strategies. Our findings may inform the creation of a network of MASH researchers capable of running a platform trial, which in turn may speed up research into treatments for MASH.
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BACKGROUND: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is associated with significant mortality. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is used to predict short-term mortality and aid in treatment decisions. MELD is frequently updated in the course of AH. However, once the most updated MELD is known, it is uncertain if previous ones still have prognostic value, which might be relevant for transplant allocation and trial design. We aimed to investigate the predictive performance of updated MELDs in a prospectively collected cohort of patients with AH by the InTeam consortium. METHODS: Three hundred seven patients (with 859 MELD values within 60 d of admission) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The main endpoint was time to death or transplant up to 90 days. We used a joint model approach to assess the predictive value of updated MELDs. RESULTS: Updated MELD measurements had a strong prognostic value for death/transplant (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.14-1.27) (p < 0.0001). Previous MELD values did not add predictive value to the most current MELD. We also showed that MELD at day 28 (MELD28) had a significant predictive value for subsequent mortality/transplant in a landmark analysis (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.12-1.23). We show that the use of an ordinal scale including death, transplant, and MELD28 as a trial outcome could substantially reduce the sample size required to demonstrate short-term benefit of an intervention. CONCLUSION: We show that updated MELDs during the trajectory of AH predict subsequent mortality or the need for transplant. MELD28 inclusion in an ordinal outcome (together with death or transplant) could increase the efficiency of randomized controlled trials.
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Hepatite Alcoólica , Transplante de Fígado , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Humanos , Hepatite Alcoólica/mortalidade , Hepatite Alcoólica/tratamento farmacológico , Masculino , Feminino , Prognóstico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Adulto , Doença Hepática Terminal/cirurgia , Doença Hepática Terminal/mortalidade , Valor Preditivo dos TestesRESUMO
Although metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is rapidly becoming a leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, therapeutic options are limited and the number of clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis is low as compared to those conducted in earlier disease stages. Moreover, designing clinical trials in MASH cirrhosis presents a series of challenges regarding the understanding and conceptualization of the natural history, regulatory considerations, inclusion criteria, recruitment, end points and trial duration, among others. The first international workshop on the state of the art and future direction of clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis was held in April 2023 at Vall d'Hebron University Hospital in Barcelona (Spain) and was attended by a group of international experts on clinical trials from academia, regulatory agencies and industry, encompassing expertise in MASH, cirrhosis, portal hypertension, and regulatory affairs. The presented Roadmap summarizes important content of the workshop on current status, regulatory requirements and end points in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis clinical trials, exploring alternative study designs and highlighting the challenges that should be considered for upcoming studies on MASH cirrhosis.
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Background & Aims: Spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS) develop frequently in cirrhosis. Changes over time and the effect of aetiological interventions on SPSS are unknown, so we aimed to explore the effect of these variables on SPSS evolution. Methods: Patients with cirrhosis from the Baveno VI-SPSS cohort were selected provided a follow-up abdominal CT or MRI scan was available. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at baseline and follow-up. Imaging tests were reviewed to evaluate changes in the presence and size of SPSS (large (L)-SPSS was ≥8 mm) over time. Regarding alcohol- or HCV-related cirrhosis, two populations were defined: cured patients (abstinent from alcohol or successful HCV therapy), and non-cured patients. Results: A total of 617 patients were included. At baseline SPSS distribution was 22% L-SPSS, 30% small (S)-SPSS, and 48% without (W)-SPSS. During follow-up (median follow-up of 63 months), SPSS distribution worsened: L-SPSS 26%, S-SPSS 32%, and W-SPSS 42% (p <0.001). Patients with worse liver function during follow-up showed a simultaneous aggravation in SPSS distribution. Non-cured patients (n = 191) experienced a significant worsening in liver function, more episodes of liver decompensation and lower transplant-free survival compared to cured patients (n = 191). However, no differences were observed regarding SPSS distribution at inclusion and at follow-up, with both groups showing a trend to worsening. Total shunt diameter increased more in non-cured (52%) than in cured patients (28%). However, total shunt area (TSA) significantly increased only in non-cured patients (74 to 122 mm2, p <0.001). Conclusions: The presence of SPSS in cirrhosis increases over time and parallels liver function deterioration. Aetiological intervention in these patients reduces liver-related complications, but SPSS persist although progression is decreased. Impact and implications: There is no information regarding the evolution of spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS) during the course of cirrhosis, and especially after disease regression with aetiological interventions, such as HCV treatment with direct-acting antivirals or alcohol abstinence. These results are relevant for clinicians dealing with patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension because they have important implications for the management of cirrhosis with SPSS after disease regression. From a practical point of view, physicians should be aware that in advanced cirrhosis with portal hypertension, after aetiological intervention, SPSS mostly persist despite liver function improvement, and complications related to SPSS may still develop.