Use of point-of-care haemoglobin tests to diagnose childhood anaemia in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Anaemia is a major cause of mortality and transfusion in children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, current diagnostics are slow, costly and frequently unavailable. Point-of-care haemoglobin tests (POC(Hb)Ts) could improve patient outcomes and use of resources by providing rapid and affordable results. We systematically reviewed the literature to investigate what, where and how POC(Hb)Ts are being used by health facilities in LMICs to diagnose childhood anaemia, and to explore challenges to their use. METHODS: We searched a total of nine databases and trial registries up to 10 June 2022 using the concepts: anaemia, POC(Hb)T, LMIC and clinical setting. Adults ≥21 years and literature published >15 years ago were excluded. A single reviewer conducted screening, data extraction and quality assessment (of diagnostic studies) using QUADAS-2. Outcomes including POC(Hb)T used, location, setting, challenges and diagnostic accuracy were synthesised. RESULTS: Of 626 records screened, 41 studies were included. Evidence is available on the use of 15 POC(Hb)Ts in hospitals (n = 28, 68%), health centres (n = 9, 22%) and clinics/units (n = 10, 24%) across 16 LMICs. HemoCue (HemoCue AB, Ängelholm, Sweden) was the most used test (n = 31, 76%). Key challenges reported were overestimation of haemoglobin concentration, clinically unacceptable limits of agreement, errors/difficulty in sampling, environmental factors, cost, inter-observer variability and supply of consumables. Five POC(Hb)Ts (33%) could not detect haemoglobin levels below 4.5 g/dL. Diagnostic accuracy varied, with sensitivity and specificity to detect anaemia ranging from 24.2% to 92.2% and 70% to 96.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: POC(Hb)Ts have been successfully utilised in health facilities in LMICs to diagnose childhood anaemia. However, limited evidence is available, and challenges exist that must be addressed before wider implementation. Further research is required to confirm accuracy, clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness.

Legume-supplemented feed for children hospitalised with severe malnutrition: A Phase II trial.

Children hospitalised with severe malnutrition have high mortality and readmission rates post-discharge. Current milk-based formulations target restoring ponderal growth but not modification of gut barrier integrety or microbiome which increase risk of gram-negative sepsis and poor outcomes. We propose that legume-based feeds rich in fermentable carbohydrates will promote better gut health and improve overall outcomes.We conducted an open-label Phase II trial at Mbale and Soroti Regional Referral Hospitals, Uganda involving 160 children aged 6 months-5 years with severe malnutrition (mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <11.5cm and/or nutritional oedema). Children were randomised to a lactose-free, chickpea-enriched legume paste feed (LF) (n=80) versus WHO standard F75/F100 feeds (n=80). Co-primary outcomes were change in MUAC and mortality to Day 90. Secondary outcomes included weight gain (>5 g/kg/day), de novo development of diarrhoea, time to diarrhoea and oedema resolution.Day 90 MUAC increase was marginally lower in LF versus WHO arm (1.1 cm (IQR 1.1) vs 1.4cm (IQR 1.40) p=0.09; Day 90 mortality was similar 11/80 (13.8%) vs 12/80 (15%) respectively OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.40 -2.07) p=0.83. There were no differences in any of the other secondary outcomes. Owing to initial poor palatability of the legume feed 10 children switched to WHO feeds. Per protocol analysis indicated a trend to lower Day 90 mortality and readmission rates in the legume feed (6/60: (10%) and (2/60: 3%) vs WHO feeds (12/71: 17.5%) and (4/71: 6%) respectively.Further refinement of legume feeds and clinical trials are warrented given the poor outcomes in children with severe malnutrition.Trial registration ISRCTN 10309022.

Transfusion Volume for Children with Severe Anemia in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Severe anemia (hemoglobin level, <6 g per deciliter) is a leading cause of hospital admission and death in children in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Health Organization recommends transfusion of 20 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram of body weight for anemia, regardless of hemoglobin level. METHODS: In this factorial, open-label trial, we randomly assigned Ugandan and Malawian children 2 months to 12 years of age with a hemoglobin level of less than 6 g per deciliter and severity features (e.g., respiratory distress or reduced consciousness) to receive immediate blood transfusion with 20 ml per kilogram or 30 ml per kilogram. Three other randomized analyses investigated immediate as compared with no immediate transfusion, the administration of postdischarge micronutrients, and postdischarge prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 3196 eligible children (median age, 37 months; 2050 [64.1%] with malaria) were assigned to receive a transfusion of 30 ml per kilogram (1598 children) or 20 ml per kilogram (1598 children) and were followed for 180 days. A total of 1592 children (99.6%) in the higher-volume group and 1596 (99.9%) in the lower-volume group started transfusion (median, 1.2 hours after randomization). The mean (±SD) volume of total blood transfused per child was 475±385 ml and 353±348 ml, respectively; 197 children (12.3%) and 300 children (18.8%) in the respective groups received additional transfusions. Overall, 55 children (3.4%) in the higher-volume group and 72 (4.5%) in the lower-volume group died before 28 days (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54 to 1.08; P = 0.12 by log-rank test). This finding masked significant heterogeneity in 28-day mortality according to the presence or absence of fever (>37.5°C) at screening (P=0.001 after Sidak correction). Among the 1943 children (60.8%) without fever, mortality was lower with a transfusion volume of 30 ml per kilogram than with a volume of 20 ml per kilogram (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.69). Among the 1253 children (39.2%) with fever, mortality was higher with 30 ml per kilogram than with 20 ml per kilogram (hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.49). There was no evidence of differences between the randomized groups in readmissions, serious adverse events, or hemoglobin recovery at 180 days. CONCLUSIONS: Overall mortality did not differ between the two transfusion strategies. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, United Kingdom; TRACT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN84086586.).

Immediate Transfusion in African Children with Uncomplicated Severe Anemia.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends not performing transfusions in African children hospitalized for uncomplicated severe anemia (hemoglobin level of 4 to 6 g per deciliter and no signs of clinical severity). However, high mortality and readmission rates suggest that less restrictive transfusion strategies might improve outcomes. METHODS: In this factorial, open-label, randomized, controlled trial, we assigned Ugandan and Malawian children 2 months to 12 years of age with uncomplicated severe anemia to immediate transfusion with 20 ml or 30 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram of body weight, as determined in a second simultaneous randomization, or no immediate transfusion (control group), in which transfusion with 20 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram was triggered by new signs of clinical severity or a drop in hemoglobin to below 4 g per deciliter. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Three other randomizations investigated transfusion volume, postdischarge supplementation with micronutrients, and postdischarge prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. RESULTS: A total of 1565 children (median age, 26 months) underwent randomization, with 778 assigned to the immediate-transfusion group and 787 to the control group; 984 children (62.9%) had malaria. The children were followed for 180 days, and 71 (4.5%) were lost to follow-up. During the primary hospitalization, transfusion was performed in all the children in the immediate-transfusion group and in 386 (49.0%) in the control group (median time to transfusion, 1.3 hours vs. 24.9 hours after randomization). The mean (±SD) total blood volume transfused per child was 314±228 ml in the immediate-transfusion group and 142±224 ml in the control group. Death had occurred by 28 days in 7 children (0.9%) in the immediate-transfusion group and in 13 (1.7%) in the control group (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22 to 1.36; P = 0.19) and by 180 days in 35 (4.5%) and 47 (6.0%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.48 to 1.15), without evidence of interaction with other randomizations (P>0.20) or evidence of between-group differences in readmissions, serious adverse events, or hemoglobin recovery at 180 days. The mean length of hospital stay was 0.9 days longer in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of differences in clinical outcomes over 6 months between the children who received immediate transfusion and those who did not. The triggered-transfusion strategy in the control group resulted in lower blood use; however, the length of hospital stay was longer, and this strategy required clinical and hemoglobin monitoring. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and Department for International Development; TRACT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN84086586.).

Outcomes reported in trials of treatments for severe malaria: The need for a core outcome set.

OBJECTIVES: Malaria is one of the most important parasitic infectious diseases worldwide. Despite the scale-up of effective antimalarials, mortality rates from severe malaria (SM) remain significantly high; thus, numerous trials are investigating both antimalarials and adjunctive therapy. This review aimed to summarise all the outcome measures used in trials in the last 10 years to see the need for a core outcome set. METHODS: A systematic review was undertaken to summarise outcomes of individually randomised trials assessing treatments for SM in adults and children. We searched key databases and trial registries between 1 January 2010 and 30 July 2020. Non-randomised trials were excluded to allow comparison of similar trials. Trial characteristics including phase, region, population, interventions, were summarised. All primary and secondary outcomes were extracted and categorised using a taxonomy table. RESULTS: Twenty-seven of 282 screened trials met our inclusion criteria, including 10,342 patients from 19 countries: 19 (70%) trials from Africa and 8 (30%) from Asia. A large amount of heterogeneity was observed in the selection of outcomes and instruments, with 101 different outcomes measures recorded, 78/101 reported only in a single trial. Parasitological outcomes (17 studies), neurological status (14 studies), death (14 studies) and temperature (10 studies), were the most reported outcomes. Where an outcome was reported in >1 study it was often measured differently: temperature (4 different measures), renal function (7 measures), nervous system (13 measures) and parasitology (10 measures). CONCLUSION: Outcomes used in SM trials are inconsistent and heterogeneous. Absence of consensus for outcome measures used impedes research synthesis and comparability of different interventions. This systematic review demonstrates the need to develop a standardised collection of core outcomes for clinical trials of treatments for SM and next steps to include the development of a panel of experts in the field, a Delphi process, and a consensus meeting.

A predictive algorithm for identifying children with sickle cell anemia among children admitted to hospital with severe anemia in Africa.

Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is common in sub-Saharan Africa where approximately 1% of births are affected. Severe anemia is a common cause for hospital admission within the region yet few studies have investigated the contribution made by SCA. The Transfusion and Treatment of severe anemia in African Children Trial (ISRCTN84086586) investigated various treatment strategies in 3983 children admitted with severe anemia (hemoglobin < 6.0 g/dl) based on two severity strata to four hospitals in Africa (three Uganda and one Malawi). Children with known-SCA were excluded from the uncomplicated stratum and capped at 25% in the complicated stratum. All participants were genotyped for SCA at trial completion. SCA was rare in Malawi (six patients overall), so here we focus on the participants recruited in Uganda. We present baseline characteristics by SCA status and propose an algorithm for identifying children with unknown-SCA. Overall, 430 (12%) and 608 (17%) of the 3483 Ugandan participants had known- or unknown-SCA, respectively. Children with SCA were less likely to be malaria-positive and more likely to have an affected sibling, have gross splenomegaly, or to have received a previous blood transfusion. Most outcomes, including mortality and readmission, were better in children with either known or unknown-SCA than non-SCA children. A simple algorithm based on seven admission criteria detected 73% of all children with unknown-SCA with a number needed to test to identify one new SCA case of only two. Our proposed algorithm offers an efficient and cost-effective approach to identifying children with unknown-SCA among all children admitted with severe anemia to African hospitals where screening is not widely available.

Point-of-care haemoglobin testing in African hospitals: a neglected essential diagnostic test.

Owing to the rapid turnaround time in the assessment of haemoglobin level by point-of-care tests (POC Hb), these have grown in popularity and scope in large parts of the world. However, whilst POC testing for malaria and HIV remains has been integrated into patient management in Africa, the use of POC haemoglobin testing remains neglected by health services. The main users of transfusions (paediatric, maternity and trauma services) present largely as emergencies. Ward-based POC Hb could result in more rapid and accurate diagnosis of anaemia, contributing to saving of lives and at the same time reduce unnecessary transfusions which deplete the limited supplies of donated blood in Africa. Severe anaemia requiring transfusion is a major cause of paediatric admission in Africa. At a dissemination meeting to discuss the results of a large phase III paediatric transfusion trial and steps to implementation of the findings participants strongly recommended that one of the most pressing actions required was to prioritise the use of POC haemoglobin testing. This would facilitate implementation of the new transfusion algorithm, developed at the meeting, which refines patient management including blood transfusions. We present the rationale for the strongly recommended prioritisation of POC Hb, using paediatric transfusion as an exemplar.

Transfusion management of severe anaemia in African children: a consensus algorithm.

The phase III Transfusion and Treatment of severe anaemia in African Children Trial (TRACT) found that conservative management of uncomplicated severe anaemia [haemoglobin (Hb) 40-60 g/l] was safe, and that transfusion volume (20 vs. 30 ml/kg whole blood equivalent) for children with severe anaemia (Hb <60 g/l) had strong but opposing effects on mortality, depending on fever status (>37·5°C). In 2020 a stakeholder meeting of paediatric and blood transfusion groups from Africa reviewed the results and additional analyses. Among all 3196 children receiving an initial transfusion there was no evidence that nutritional status, presence of shock, malaria parasite burden or sickle cell disease status influenced outcomes or modified the interaction with fever status on volume required. Fever status at the time of ordering blood was a reliable determinant of volume required for optimal outcome. Elevated heart and respiratory rates normalised irrespective of transfusion volume and without diuretics. By consensus, a transfusion management algorithm was developed, incorporating three additional measurements of Hb post-admission, alongside clinical monitoring. The proposed algorithm should help clinicians safely implement findings from TRACT. Further research should assess its implementation in routine clinical practice.

Incidence and predictors of hospital readmission in children presenting with severe anaemia in Uganda and Malawi: a secondary analysis of TRACT trial data.

BACKGROUND: Severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 6 g/dL) is a leading cause of recurrent hospitalisation in African children. We investigated predictors of readmission in children hospitalised with severe anaemia in the TRACT trial (ISRCTN84086586) in order to identify potential future interventions. METHODS: Secondary analyses of the trial examined 3894 children from Uganda and Malawi surviving a hospital episode of severe anaemia. Predictors of all-cause readmission within 180 days of discharge were identified using multivariable regression with death as a competing risk. Groups of children with similar characteristics were identified using hierarchical clustering. RESULTS: Of the 3894 survivors 682 (18%) were readmitted; 403 (10%) had ≥2 re-admissions over 180 days. Three main causes of readmission were identified: severe anaemia (n = 456), malaria (n = 252) and haemoglobinuria/dark urine syndrome (n = 165). Overall, factors increasing risk of readmission included HIV-infection (hazard ratio 2.48 (95% CI 1.63-3.78), p < 0.001); ≥2 hospital admissions in the preceding 12 months (1.44(1.19-1.74), p < 0.001); history of transfusion (1.48(1.13-1.93), p = 0.005); and missing ≥1 trial medication dose (proxy for care quality) (1.43 (1.21-1.69), p < 0.001). Children with uncomplicated severe anaemia (Hb 4-6 g/dL and no severity features), who never received a transfusion (per trial protocol) during the initial admission had a substantially lower risk of readmission (0.67(0.47-0.96), p = 0.04). Malaria (among children with no prior history of transfusion) (0.60(0.47-0.76), p < 0.001); younger-age (1.07 (1.03-1.10) per 1 year younger, p < 0.001) and known sickle cell disease (0.62(0.46-0.82), p = 0.001) also decreased risk of readmission. For anaemia re-admissions, gross splenomegaly and enlarged spleen increased risk by 1.73(1.23-2.44) and 1.46(1.18-1.82) respectively compared to no splenomegaly. Clustering identified four groups of children with readmission rates from 14 to 20%. The cluster with the highest readmission rate was characterised by very low haemoglobin (mean 3.6 g/dL). Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) predominated in two clusters associated with chronic repeated admissions or severe, acute presentations in largely undiagnosed SCD. The final cluster had high rates of malaria (78%), severity signs and very low platelet count, consistent with acute severe malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Younger age, HIV infection and history of previous hospital admissions predicted increased risk of readmission. However, no obvious clinical factors for intervention were identified. As missing medication doses was highly predictive, attention to care related factors may be important. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN84086586 .

Gastroenteritis aggressive versus slow treatment for rehydration (GASTRO): a phase II rehydration trial for severe dehydration: WHO plan C versus slow rehydration.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization rehydration management guidelines (plan C) for severe dehydration are widely practiced in resource-poor settings, but never formally evaluated in a trial. The Fluid Expansion as a Supportive Therapy trial raised concerns regarding the safety of bolus therapy for septic shock, warranting a formal evaluation of rehydration therapy for gastroenteritis. METHODS: A multi-centre open-label phase II randomised controlled trial evaluated two rehydration strategies in 122 Ugandan/Kenyan children aged 60 days to 12 years with severe dehydration secondary to gastroenteritis. We compared the safety and efficacy of standard rapid rehydration using Ringer's lactate (100 ml/kg over 3 h (6 h if < 1 year), incorporating 0.9% saline boluses for children with shock (plan C) versus slower rehydration: 100 ml/kg Ringer's lactate over 8 h (all ages) without boluses (slow: experimental). The primary outcome was the frequency of serious adverse events (SAE) within 48 h including cardiovascular, respiratory and neurological complications. Secondary outcomes included clinical, biochemical and physiological measures of response to treatment by intravenous rehydration. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-two eligible children (median (IQR) age 8 (6-12) months) were randomised to plan C (n = 61) or slow (n = 61), with two (2%) lost to follow-up at day 7). Following randomisation mean (SD) time to start intravenous rehydration started was 15 min (18) in both arms. Mean (SD) fluid received by 1 hour was greater in plan C (mean 20.2 ml/kg (12.2) and 33.1 ml/kg (17) for children < 1 year and >- 1 year respectively) versus 10.4 ml/kg (6.6) in slow arm. By 8 hours volume received were similar mean (SD) plan C: 96.3 ml/kg (15.6) and 97.8 ml/kg (10.0) for children < 1 and ≥ 1 year respectively vs 93.2 ml/kg (12.2) in slow arm. By 48-h, three (5%) plan C vs two (3%) slow had an SAE (risk ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.12-3.85, p = 0.65). There was no difference in time to the correction of dehydration (p = 0.9) or time to discharge (p = 0.8) between groups. Atrial natriuretic peptide levels rose substantially by 8 hours in both arms, which persisted to day 7. Day 7 weights suggested only 33 (29%) could be retrospectively classified as severely dehydration (≥ 10% weight loss). CONCLUSION: Slower rehydration over 8 hours appears to be safe, easier to implement than plan C. Future large trials with mortality as the primary endpoint are warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN67518332 . Date applied 31 August 2016.

Haematological quality and age of donor blood issued for paediatric transfusion to four hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Paediatric blood transfusion for severe anaemia in hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa remains common. Yet, reports describing the haematological quality of donor blood or storage duration in routine practice are very limited. Both factors are likely to affect transfusion outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We undertook three audits examining the distribution of pack types, haematological quality and storage duration of donor blood used in a paediatric clinical trial of blood at four hospitals in Africa (Uganda and Malawi). RESULTS: The overall distribution of whole blood, packed cells (plasma-reduced by centrifugation) and red cell concentrates (RCC) (plasma-reduced by gravity-dependent sedimentation) used in a randomised trial was 40·7% (N = 1215), 22·4% (N = 669) and 36·8% (N = 1099), respectively. The first audit found similar median haematocrits of 57·0% (50·0,74·0), 64·0% (52·0,72·5; P = 0·238 vs. whole blood) and 56·0% (48·0,67·0; P = 0·462) in whole blood, RCC and packed cells, respectively, which resulted from unclear pack labelling by blood transfusion services (BTS). Re-training of the BTS, hospital blood banks and clinical teams led to, in subsequent audits, significant differences in median haematocrit and haemoglobins across the three pack types and values within expected ranges. Median storage duration time was 12 days (IQR: 6, 19) with 18·2% (537/2964) over 21 days in storage. Initially, 9 (2·8%) packs were issued past the recommended duration of storage, dropping to 0·3% (N = 7) in the third audit post-training. CONCLUSION: The study highlights the importance of close interactions and education between BTS and clinical services and the importance of haemovigilance to ensure safe transfusion practice.

Mortality risk over time after early fluid resuscitation in African children.

BACKGROUND: African children hospitalised with severe febrile illness have a high risk of mortality. The Fluid Expansion As Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial (ISCRTN 69856593) demonstrated increased mortality risk associated with fluid boluses, but the temporal relationship to bolus therapy and underlying mechanism remains unclear. METHODS: In a post hoc retrospective analysis, flexible parametric models were used to compare change in mortality risk post-randomisation in children allocated to bolus therapy with 20-40 ml/kg 5% albumin or 0.9% saline over 1-2 h or no bolus (control, 4 ml/kg/hour maintenance), overall and for different terminal clinical events (cardiogenic, neurological, respiratory, or unknown/other). RESULTS: Two thousand ninety-seven and 1041 children were randomised to bolus vs no bolus, of whom 254 (12%) and 91 (9%) respectively died within 28 days. Median (IQR) bolus fluid in the bolus groups received by 4 h was 20 (20, 40) ml/kg and was the same at 8 h; total fluids received in bolus groups at 4 h and 8 h were 38 (28, 43) ml/kg and 40 (30, 50) ml/kg, respectively. Total fluid volumes received in the control group by 4 h and 8 h were median (IQR) 10 (6, 15) ml/kg and 10 (10, 26) ml/kg, respectively. Mortality risk was greatest 30 min post-randomisation in both groups, declining sharply to 4 h and then more slowly to 28 days. Maximum mortality risk was similar in bolus and no bolus groups; however, the risk declined more slowly in the bolus group, with significantly higher mortality risk compared to the no bolus group from 1.6 to 101 h (4 days) post-randomisation. The delay in decline in mortality risk in the bolus groups was most pronounced for cardiogenic modes of death. CONCLUSIONS: The increased risk from bolus therapy was not due to a mechanism occurring immediately after bolus administration. Excess mortality risk in the bolus group resulted from slower decrease in mortality risk over the ensuing 4 days. Thus, administration of modest bolus volumes appeared to prevent mortality risk declining at the same rate that it would have done without a bolus, rather than harm associated with bolus resulting from a concurrent increased risk of death peri-bolus administration. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN69856593. Date of registration 15 December 2008.

Lactate clearance as a prognostic marker of mortality in severely ill febrile children in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Hyperlactataemia (HL) is a biomarker of disease severity that predicts mortality in patients with sepsis and malaria. Lactate clearance (LC) during resuscitation has been shown to be a prognostic factor of survival in critically ill adults, but little data exist for African children living in malaria-endemic areas. METHODS: In a secondary data analysis of severely ill febrile children included in the Fluid Expansion as Supportive Therapy (FEAST) resuscitation trial, we assessed the association between lactate levels at admission and LC at 8 h with all-cause mortality at 72 h (d72). LC was defined as a relative lactate decline ≥ 40% and/or lactate normalisation (lactate < 2.5 mmol/L). RESULTS: Of 3170 children in the FEAST trial, including 1719 children (57%) with Plasmodium falciparum malaria, 3008 (95%) had a baseline lactate measurement, 2127 (71%) had HL (lactate ≥ 2.5 mmol/L), and 1179 (39%) had severe HL (≥ 5 mmol/L). Within 72 h, 309 children (10.3%) died, of whom 284 (92%) had baseline HL. After adjustment for potential confounders, severe HL was strongly associated with mortality (Odds Ratio (OR) 6.96; 95% CI 3.52, 13.76, p < 0.001). This association was not modified by malaria status, despite children with malaria having a higher baseline lactate (median 4.6 mmol/L vs 3 mmol/L; p < 0.001) and a lower mortality rate (OR = 0.42; p < 0.001) compared to non-malarial cases. Sensitivity and specificity analysis identified a higher lactate on admission cut-off value predictive of d72 for children with malaria (5.2 mmol/L) than for those with other febrile illnesses (3.4 mmol/L). At 8 h, 2748/3008 survivors (91%) had a lactate measured, 1906 (63%) of whom had HL on admission, of whom 1014 (53%) fulfilled pre-defined LC criteria. After adjustment for confounders, LC independently predicted survival after 8 h (OR 0.24; 95% CI 0.14, 0.42; p < 0.001). Absence of LC (< 10%) at 8 h was strongly associated with death at 72 h (OR 4.62; 95% CI 2.7, 8.0; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Independently of the underlying diagnosis, HL is a strong risk factor for death at 72 h in children admitted with severe febrile illnesses in Africa. Children able to clear lactate within 8 h had an improved chance of survival. These findings prompt the more widespread use of lactate and LC to identify children with severe disease and monitor response to treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN69856593 Registered 21 January 2009.

Implications for paediatric shock management in resource-limited settings: a perspective from the FEAST trial.

BACKGROUND: Although the African "Fluid Expansion as Supportive therapy" (FEAST) trial showed fluid resuscitation was harmful in children with severe febrile illness managed in resource-limited hospitals, the most recent evidence reviewed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines continue to recommend fluid boluses in children with shock according to WHO criteria "WHO shock", arguing that the numbers included in the FEAST trial were too small to provide reasonable certainty. METHODS: We re-analysed the FEAST trial results for all international definitions for paediatric shock including hypotensive (or decompensated shock) and the WHO criteria. In addition, we examined the clinical relevance of the WHO criteria to published and unpublished observational studies reporting shock in resource-limited settings. RESULTS: We established that hypotension was rare in children with severe febrile illness complicating only 29/3170 trial participants (0.9%). We confirmed that fluid boluses were harmful irrespective of the definitions of shock including the very small number with WHO shock (n = 65). In this subgroup 48% of bolus recipients died at 48 h compared to 20% of the non-bolus control group, an increased absolute risk of 28%, but translating to an increased relative risk of 240% (p = 0.07 (two-sided Fisher's exact test)). Examining studies describing the prevalence of the stringent WHO shock criteria in children presenting to hospital we found this was rare (~ 0.1%) and in these children mortality was very high (41.5-100%). CONCLUSIONS: The updated WHO guidelines continue to recommend boluses for a very limited number of children presenting at hospital with the strict definition of WHO shock. Nevertheless, the 3% increased mortality from boluses seen across FEAST trial participants would also include this subgroup of children receiving boluses. Recommendations aiming to differentiate WHO shock from other definitions will invariably lead to "slippage" at the bedside, with the potential of exposing a wider group of children to the harm of fluid-bolus therapy.

High Frequency of Blackwater Fever Among Children Presenting to Hospital With Severe Febrile Illnesses in Eastern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In the Fluid Expansion as a Supportive Treatment (FEAST) trial, an unexpectedly high proportion of participants from eastern Uganda presented with blackwater fever (BWF). METHODS: We describe the prevalence and outcome of BWF among trial participants and compare the prevalence of 3 malaria-protective red blood cell polymorphisms in BWF cases vs both trial (non-BWF) and population controls. RESULTS: Of 3170 trial participants, 394 (12.4%) had BWF. The majority (318 [81.0%]) presented in eastern Uganda and were the subjects of further analysis. BWF cases typically presented with both clinical jaundice (254/318 [80%]) and severe anemia (hemoglobin level <5 g/dL) (238/310 [77%]). Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia was less frequent than in non-BWF controls, but a higher proportion were positive for P. falciparum histidine rich protein 2 (192/246 [78.0%]) vs 811/1154 [70.3%]; P = .014), suggesting recent antimalarial treatment. Overall, 282 of 318 (88.7%) received transfusions, with 94 of 282 (33.3%) and 9 of 282 (3.4%) receiving 2 or 3 transfusions, respectively. By day 28, 39 of 318 (12.3%) BWF cases and 154 of 1554 (9.9%) non-BWF controls had died (P = .21), and 7 of 255 (3.0%) vs 13/1212 (1%), respectively, had severe anemia (P = .036). We found no association with G6PD deficiency. The prevalence of both the sickle cell trait (10/218 [4.6%]) and homozygous α+thalassemia (8/216 [3.7%]) were significantly lower among cases than among population controls (334/2123 [15.7%] and 141/2114 [6.6%], respectively), providing further support for the role of malaria. CONCLUSIONS: We report the emergence of BWF in eastern Uganda, a condition that, according to local investigators, was rare until the last 7 years. We speculate that this might relate to the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapies. Further studies investigating this possibility are urgently required.

Ritonavir-boosted darunavir combined with raltegravir or tenofovir-emtricitabine in antiretroviral-naive adults infected with HIV-1: 96 week results from the NEAT001/ANRS143 randomised non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Standard first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1 infection includes two nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NtRTIs), but these drugs have limitations. We assessed the 96 week efficacy and safety of an NtRTI-sparing regimen. METHODS: Between August, 2010, and September, 2011, we enrolled treatment-naive adults into this randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial in treatment-naive adults in 15 European countries. The composite primary outcome was change to randomised treatment before week 32 because of insufficient virological response, no virological response by week 32, HIV-1 RNA concentration 50 copies per mL or higher at any time after week 32; death from any cause; any new or recurrent AIDS event; or any serious non-AIDS event. Patients were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral treatment with 400 mg raltegravir twice daily plus 800 mg darunavir and 100 mg ritonavir once daily (NtRTI-sparing regimen) or tenofovir-emtricitabine in a 245 mg and 200 mg fixed-dose combination once daily, plus 800 mg darunavir and 100 mg ritonavir once daily (standard regimen). This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01066962. FINDINGS: Of 805 patients enrolled, 401 received the NtRTI-sparing regimen and 404 the standard regimen, with median follow-up of 123 weeks (IQR 112-133). Treatment failure was seen in 77 (19%) in the NtRTI-sparing group and 61 (15%) in the standard group. Kaplan-Meier estimated proportions of treatment failure by week 96 were 17·8% and 13·8%, respectively (difference 4·0%, 95% CI -0·8 to 8·8). The frequency of serious or treatment-modifying adverse events were similar (10·2 vs 8·3 per 100 person-years and 3·9 vs 4·2 per 100 person-years, respectively). INTERPRETATION: Our NtRTI-sparing regimen was non-inferior to standard treatment and represents a treatment option for patients with CD4 cell counts higher than 200 cells per µL. FUNDING: European Union Sixth Framework Programme, Inserm-ANRS, Gilead Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Merck Laboratories.

Anaemia and blood transfusion in African children presenting to hospital with severe febrile illness.

BACKGROUND: Severe anaemia in children is a leading cause of hospital admission and a major cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there are limited published data on blood transfusion in this vulnerable group. METHODS: We present data from a large controlled trial of fluid resuscitation (Fluid Expansion As Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial) on the prevalence, clinical features, and transfusion management of anaemia in children presenting to hospitals in three East African countries with serious febrile illness (predominantly malaria and/or sepsis) and impaired peripheral perfusion. RESULTS: Of 3,170 children in the FEAST trial, 3,082 (97%) had baseline haemoglobin (Hb) measurement, 2,346/3,082 (76%) were anaemic (Hb <10 g/dL), and 33% severely anaemic (Hb <5 g/dL). Prevalence of severe anaemia varied from 12% in Kenya to 41% in eastern Uganda. 1,387/3,082 (45%) children were transfused (81% within 8 hours). Adherence to WHO transfusion guidelines was poor. Among severely anaemic children who were not transfused, 52% (54/103) died within 8 hours, and 90% of these deaths occurred within 2.5 hours of randomisation. By 24 hours, 128/1,002 (13%) severely anaemic children had died, compared to 36/501 (7%) and 71/843 (8%) of those with moderate and mild anaemia, respectively. Among children without severe hypotension who were randomised to receive fluid boluses of 0.9% saline or albumin, mortality was increased (10.6% and 10.5%, respectively) compared to controls (7.2%), regardless of admission Hb level. Repeat transfusion varied from ≤2% in Kenya/Tanzania to 6 to 13% at the four Ugandan centres. Adverse reactions to blood were rare (0.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Severe anaemia complicates one third of childhood admissions with serious febrile illness to hospitals in East Africa, and is associated with increased mortality. A high proportion of deaths occurred within 2.5 hours of admission, emphasizing the need for rapid recognition and prompt blood transfusion. Adherence to current WHO transfusion guidelines was poor. The high rates of re-transfusion suggest that 20 mL/kg whole blood or 10 mL/kg packed cells may undertreat a significant proportion of anaemic children. Future evaluation of the impact of a larger volume of transfused blood and optimum transfusion management of children with Hb of <6 g/dL is warranted.

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. METHODS: Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. RESULTS: A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. CONCLUSIONS: Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally validated. The score discriminated those at highest risk of fatal outcome at the point of hospital admission and compared well to other published risk scores. Further laboratory tests were also identified as prognostic factors which could be added if resources were available or as indices of severity for comparison between centres in future research studies.

Exploring mechanisms of excess mortality with early fluid resuscitation: insights from the FEAST trial.

BACKGROUND: Early rapid fluid resuscitation (boluses) in African children with severe febrile illnesses increases the 48-hour mortality by 3.3% compared with controls (no bolus). We explored the effect of boluses on 48-hour all-cause mortality by clinical presentation at enrolment, hemodynamic changes over the first hour, and on different modes of death, according to terminal clinical events. We hypothesize that boluses may cause excess deaths from neurological or respiratory events relating to fluid overload. METHODS: Pre-defined presentation syndromes (PS; severe acidosis or severe shock, respiratory, neurological) and predominant terminal clinical events (cardiovascular collapse, respiratory, neurological) were described by randomized arm (bolus versus control) in 3,141 severely ill febrile children with shock enrolled in the Fluid Expansion as Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial. Landmark analyses were used to compare early mortality in treatment groups, conditional on changes in shock and hypoxia parameters. Competing risks methods were used to estimate cumulative incidence curves and sub-hazard ratios to compare treatment groups in terms of terminal clinical events. RESULTS: Of 2,396 out of 3,141 (76%) classifiable participants, 1,647 (69%) had a severe metabolic acidosis or severe shock PS, 625 (26%) had a respiratory PS and 976 (41%) had a neurological PS, either alone or in combination. Mortality was greatest among children fulfilling criteria for all three PS (28% bolus, 21% control) and lowest for lone respiratory (2% bolus, 5% control) or neurological (3% bolus, 0% control) presentations. Excess mortality in bolus arms versus control was apparent for all three PS, including all their component features. By one hour, shock had resolved (responders) more frequently in bolus versus control groups (43% versus 32%, P <0.001), but excess mortality with boluses was evident in responders (relative risk 1.98, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 4.17, P = 0.06) and 'non-responders' (relative risk 1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 2.28, P = 0.001), with no evidence of heterogeneity (P = 0.68). The major difference between bolus and control arms was the higher proportion of cardiogenic or shock terminal clinical events in bolus arms (n = 123; 4.6% versus 2.6%, P = 0.008) rather than respiratory (n = 61; 2.2% versus 1.3%, P = 0.09) or neurological (n = 63, 2.1% versus 1.8%, P = 0.6) terminal clinical events. CONCLUSIONS: Excess mortality from boluses occurred in all subgroups of children. Contrary to expectation, cardiovascular collapse rather than fluid overload appeared to contribute most to excess deaths with rapid fluid resuscitation. These results should prompt a re-evaluation of evidence on fluid resuscitation for shock and a re-appraisal of the rate, composition and volume of resuscitation fluids. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN69856593.

Elicitation of domain knowledge for a machine learning model for paediatric critical illness in South Africa.

Objectives: Delays in identification, resuscitation and referral have been identified as a preventable cause of avoidable severity of illness and mortality in South African children. To address this problem, a machine learning model to predict a compound outcome of death prior to discharge from hospital and/or admission to the PICU was developed. A key aspect of developing machine learning models is the integration of human knowledge in their development. The objective of this study is to describe how this domain knowledge was elicited, including the use of a documented literature search and Delphi procedure. Design: A prospective mixed methodology development study was conducted that included qualitative aspects in the elicitation of domain knowledge, together with descriptive and analytical quantitative and machine learning methodologies. Setting: A single centre tertiary hospital providing acute paediatric services. Participants: Three paediatric intensivists, six specialist paediatricians and three specialist anaesthesiologists. Interventions: None. Measurements and main results: The literature search identified 154 full-text articles reporting risk factors for mortality in hospitalised children. These factors were most commonly features of specific organ dysfunction. 89 of these publications studied children in lower- and middle-income countries. The Delphi procedure included 12 expert participants and was conducted over 3 rounds. Respondents identified a need to achieve a compromise between model performance, comprehensiveness and veracity and practicality of use. Participants achieved consensus on a range of clinical features associated with severe illness in children. No special investigations were considered for inclusion in the model except point-of-care capillary blood glucose testing. The results were integrated by the researcher and a final list of features was compiled. Conclusion: The elicitation of domain knowledge is important in effective machine learning applications. The documentation of this process enhances rigour in such models and should be reported in publications. A documented literature search, Delphi procedure and the integration of the domain knowledge of the researchers contributed to problem specification and selection of features prior to feature engineering, pre-processing and model development.