RESUMO
Introduction: Approximately 130 000 infants acquire HIV annually despite global maternal antiretroviral therapy scale-up. We evaluated the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of offering long-acting, anti-HIV broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) prophylaxis to infants in three distinct settings. Methods: We simulated infants in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Zimbabwe using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-Pediatric (CEPAC-P) model. We modeled strategies offering a three-bNAb combination in addition to WHO-recommended standard-of-care oral prophylaxis to infants: a) with known, WHO-defined high-risk HIV exposure at birth (HR-HIVE); b) with known HIV exposure at birth (HIVE); or c) with or without known HIV exposure (ALL). Modeled infants received 1-dose, 2-doses, or Extended (every 3 months through 18 months) bNAb dosing. Base case model inputs included 70% bNAb efficacy (sensitivity analysis range: 10-100%), 3-month efficacy duration/dosing interval (1-6 months), and $20/dose cost ($5-$100/dose). Outcomes included pediatric HIV infections, life expectancy, lifetime HIV-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, in US$/year-of-life-saved [YLS], assuming a ≤50% GDP per capita cost-effectiveness threshold). Results: The base case model projects that bNAb strategies targeting HIVE and ALL infants would prevent 7-26% and 10-42% additional pediatric HIV infections, respectively, compared to standard-of-care alone, ranging by dosing approach. HIVE-Extended would be cost-effective (cost-saving compared to standard-of-care) in Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe; ALL-Extended would be cost-effective in South Africa (ICER: $882/YLS). BNAb strategies targeting HR-HIVE infants would result in greater lifetime costs and smaller life expectancy gains than HIVE-Extended. Throughout most bNAb efficacies and costs evaluated in sensitivity analyses, targeting HIVE infants would be cost-effective in Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe, and targeting ALL infants would be cost-effective in South Africa. Discussion: Adding long-acting bNAbs to current standard-of-care prophylaxis would be cost-effective, assuming plausible efficacies and costs. The cost-effective target population would vary by setting, largely driven by maternal antenatal HIV prevalence and postpartum incidence.
RESUMO
Decreasing mother-to-child transmission is changing the population of children and adolescents with HIV. This project used recent epidemiological data to develop short-term projections of children and adolescents living with diagnosed HIV infection in New York State. A population simulation model was created to project prevalence of diagnosed HIV cases aged 0-19 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity and risk for years 2007-2014. Using 2006 data as the baseline population and 2001-2006 diagnosis and death data, annual diagnoses and deaths were calculated for each age/sex/race/risk category and known cases were 'aged' into the next year. The model produced annual estimates until 2014. The model predicts a decline in the number of persons aged 0-19 years living with diagnosed HIV in New York from 2810 in 2006 to 1431 in 2014, a net decrease of 49%. Living cases with paediatric risk continue to decrease. Cases aged 13-19 with non-paediatric risk increase slowly, leading to a shift in the risk composition of the population. The dominant effect seen in the model is the ageing out of perinatally infected children born before measures to prevent mother-to-child transmission were broadly implemented in the mid- to late 1990s. Changing trends in the young HIV-infected population should be considered in developing public health programmes for HIV prevention and care in New York State for the coming years.