Simulating the efficacy of wolf-dog hybridization management with individual-based modeling.

Introgressive hybridization between wolves and dogs is a conservation concern due to its potentially deleterious long-term evolutionary consequences. European legislation requires that wolf-dog hybridization be mitigated through effective management. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the life cycle of gray wolves that incorporates aspects of wolf sociality that affect hybridization rates (e.g., the dissolution of packs after the death of one/both breeders) with the goal of informing decision-making on management of wolf-dog hybridization. We applied our model by projecting hybridization dynamics in a local wolf population under different mate choice and immigration scenarios and contrasted results of removal of admixed individuals with their sterilization and release. In several scenarios, lack of management led to complete admixture, whereas reactive management interventions effectively reduced admixture in wolf populations. Management effectiveness, however, strongly depended on mate choice and number and admixture level of individuals immigrating into the wolf population. The inclusion of anthropogenic mortality affecting parental and admixed individuals (e.g., poaching) increased the probability of pack dissolution and thus increased the probability of interbreeding with dogs or admixed individuals and boosted hybridization and introgression rates in all simulation scenarios. Recognizing the necessity of additional model refinements (appropriate parameterization, thorough sensitivity analyses, and robust model validation) to generate management recommendations applicable in real-world scenarios, we maintain confidence in our model's potential as a valuable conservation tool that can be applied to diverse situations and species facing similar threats.

Simulación de la eficiencia de la gestión de híbridos de perro y lobo con modelos basados en individuos Resumen La hibridación introgresiva entre perros y lobos es un tema de conservación por las posibles consecuencias evolutivas deletéreas a largo plazo. Las leyes europeas requieren que estos híbridos se mitiguen mediante una gestión efectiva. Desarrollamos un modelo basado en individuos (MBI) para simular el ciclo de vida del lobo gris que además incorpora los aspectos sociales de los lobos que afectan las tasas de hibridación (p. ej.: la disolución de las manadas después de la muerte de uno o ambos reproductores) con el objetivo de guiar las decisiones de gestión de estos híbridos. Aplicamos nuestro modelo con la proyección de las dinámicas de hibridación en una población local de lobos bajo diferentes selecciones de pareja y escenarios de inmigración y contrastamos los resultados de la extirpación de individuos mezclados con su esterilización y liberación. En varios escenarios, la falta de gestión llevó a una mezcla completa, mientras que las intervenciones de gestión reactiva redujeron de forma efectiva la mezcla en las poblaciones de lobos. Sin embargo, la eficiencia de la gestión dependió en su mayoría de la selección de pareja y el número y nivel de mezcla de los individuos inmigrantes a la población de lobos. La inclusión de la mortalidad antropogénica que afecta a los individuos parentales y mezclados (p. ej.: la cacería) incrementó la probabilidad de que se disolviera la manada y por lo tanto incrementara la probabilidad del entrecruzamiento con perros o individuos mezclados, además de que aumentó la hibridación y las tasas de introgresión en todos los escenarios de simulación. Reconocemos la necesidad de refinar el modelo (parametrización adecuada, análisis detallados de sensibilidad y validación del modelo robusto) para generar recomendaciones de gestión aplicables en escenarios reales y mantenemos la confianza en el potencial de nuestro modelo como una herramienta valiosa de conservación que podría aplicarse a diferentes situaciones y especies que enfrentan amenazas similares.

Ninety years of change, from commercial extinction to recovery, range expansion and decline for Antarctic fur seals at South Georgia.

With environmental change, understanding how species recover from overharvesting and maintain viable populations is central to ecosystem restoration. Here, we reconstruct 90 years of recovery trajectory of the Antarctic fur seal at South Georgia (S.W. Atlantic), a key indicator species in the krill-based food webs of the Southern Ocean. After being harvested to commercial extinction by 1907, this population rebounded and now constitutes the most abundant otariid in the World. However, its status remains uncertain due to insufficient and conflicting data, and anthropogenic pressures affecting Antarctic krill, an essential staple for millions of fur seals and other predators. Using integrated population models, we estimated simultaneously the long-term abundance for Bird Island, northwest South Georgia, epicentre of recovery of the species after sealing, and population adjustments for survey counts with spatiotemporal applicability. Applied to the latest comprehensive survey data, we estimated the population at South Georgia in 2007-2009 as 3,510,283 fur seals [95% CI: 3,140,548-3,919,604] (ca. 98% of global population), after 40 years of maximum growth and range expansion owing to an abundant krill supply. At Bird Island, after 50 years of exponential growth followed by 25 years of slow stable growth, the population collapsed in 2009 and has thereafter declined by -7.2% [-5.2, -9.1] per annum, to levels of the 1970s. For the instrumental record, this trajectory correlates with a time-varying relationship between coupled climate and sea surface temperature cycles associated with low regional krill availability, although the effects of increasing krill extraction by commercial fishing and natural competitors remain uncertain. Since 2015, fur seal longevity and recruitment have dropped, sexual maturation has retarded, and population growth is expected to remain mostly negative and highly variable. Our analysis documents the rise and fall of a key Southern Ocean predator over a century of profound environmental and ecosystem change.

Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring.

The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world's largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes.

Fitting stochastic predator-prey models using both population density and kill rate data.

Most mechanistic predator-prey modelling has involved either parameterization from process rate data or inverse modelling. Here, we take a median road: we aim at identifying the potential benefits of combining datasets, when both population growth and predation processes are viewed as stochastic. We fit a discrete-time, stochastic predator-prey model of the Leslie type to simulated time series of densities and kill rate data. Our model has both environmental stochasticity in the growth rates and interaction stochasticity, i.e., a stochastic functional response. We examine what the kill rate data brings to the quality of the estimates, and whether estimation is possible (for various time series lengths) solely with time series of population counts or biomass data. Both Bayesian and frequentist estimation are performed, providing multiple ways to check model identifiability. The Fisher Information Matrix suggests that models with and without kill rate data are all identifiable, although correlations remain between parameters that belong to the same functional form. However, our results show that if the attractor is a fixed point in the absence of stochasticity, identifying parameters in practice requires kill rate data as a complement to the time series of population densities, due to the relatively flat likelihood. Only noisy limit cycle attractors can be identified directly from population count data (as in inverse modelling), although even in this case, adding kill rate data - including in small amounts - can make the estimates much more precise. Overall, we show that under process stochasticity in interaction rates, interaction data might be essential to obtain identifiable dynamical models for multiple species. These results may extend to other biotic interactions than predation, for which similar models combining interaction rates and population counts could be developed.

Uncovering ecological state dynamics with hidden Markov models.

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field studies, ecological state dynamics operating at any level of this hierarchy can often be unobservable or 'hidden'. Ecologists must therefore often contend with incomplete or indirect observations that are somehow related to these underlying processes. By formally disentangling state and observation processes based on simple yet powerful mathematical properties that can be used to describe many ecological phenomena, hidden Markov models (HMMs) can facilitate inferences about complex system state dynamics that might otherwise be intractable. However, HMMs have only recently begun to gain traction within the broader ecological community. We provide a gentle introduction to HMMs, establish some common terminology, review the immense scope of HMMs for applied ecological research and provide a tutorial on implementation and interpretation. By illustrating how practitioners can use a simple conceptual template to customise HMMs for their specific systems of interest, revealing methodological links between existing applications, and highlighting some practical considerations and limitations of these approaches, our goal is to help establish HMMs as a fundamental inferential tool for ecologists.

How many cubs can a mum nurse? Maternal age and size influence litter size in polar bears.

Life-history theory predicts that females' age and size affect the level of maternal investment in current reproduction, balanced against the future reproductive effort, maintenance and survival. Using long-term (30 years) individual data on 193 female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus), we assessed age- and size-specific variation on litter size. Litter size varied with maternal age, younger females had higher chances of losing a cub during their first months of life. Results suggest an improvement in reproductive abilities early in life due to experience with subsequent reproductive senescence. Litter size increased with maternal size, indicating that size may reflect individual quality. We also found an optimum in the probability of having twins, suggesting stabilizing selection on female body size. Heterogeneity was observed among the largest females, suggesting that large size comes at a cost.

Use of ambiguous detections to improve estimates from species distribution models.

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, their distribution needs to be studied to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for human-carnivore conflicts. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior, and large home ranges. Their monitoring can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes: false negatives and false positives. False-negative detections can be accounted for in species distribution models (SDMs) that deal with imperfect detection. False-positive detections, due to species misidentification, have rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc data-filtering methods to discard ambiguous observations prior to analysis. These practices may discard valuable ecological information on the distribution of a species. We investigated the costs and benefits of including data types that may include false positives rather than discarding them for SDMs of large carnivores. We used a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that included both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. We used simulations to compare the performances of our model with a model fitted on unambiguous data only. We tested the 2 models in 4 scenarios in which parameters that control false-positive detections and true detections varied. We applied our model to data from the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the European Alps. The addition of ambiguous detections increased the precision of parameter estimates. For the Eurasian lynx, incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters and revealed additional occupied sites in areas where the species is likely expanding. Overall, we found that ambiguous data should be considered when studying the distribution of large carnivores through the use of dynamic occupancy models that account for misidentification.

Traits determining the digestibility-decomposability relationships in species from Mediterranean rangelands.

Background and Aims: Forage quality for herbivores and litter quality for decomposers are two key plant properties affecting ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. Although there is a positive relationship between palatability and decomposition, very few studies have focused on larger vertebrate herbivores while considering links between the digestibility of living leaves and stems and the decomposability of litter and associated traits. The hypothesis tested is that some defences of living organs would reduce their digestibility and, as a consequence, their litter decomposability, through 'afterlife' effects. Additionally in high-fertility conditions the presence of intense herbivory would select for communities dominated by fast-growing plants, which are able to compensate for tissue loss by herbivory, producing both highly digestible organs and easily decomposable litter. Methods: Relationships between dry matter digestibility and decomposability were quantified in 16 dominant species from Mediterranean rangelands, which are subject to management regimes that differ in grazing intensity and fertilization. The digestibility and decomposability of leaves and stems were estimated at peak standing biomass, in plots that were either fertilized and intensively grazed or unfertilized and moderately grazed. Several traits were measured on living and senesced organs: fibre content, dry matter content and nitrogen, phosphorus and tannin concentrations. Key results: Digestibility was positively related to decomposability, both properties being influenced in the same direction by management regime, organ and growth forms. Digestibility of leaves and stems was negatively related to their fibre concentrations, and positively related to their nitrogen concentration. Decomposability was more strongly related to traits measured on living organs than on litter. Digestibility and decomposition were governed by similar structural traits, in particular fibre concentration, affecting both herbivores and micro-organisms through the afterlife effects. Conclusions: This study contributes to a better understanding of the interspecific relationships between forage quality and litter decomposition in leaves and stems and demonstrates the key role these traits play in the link between plant and soil via herbivory and decomposition. Fibre concentration and dry matter content can be considered as good predictors of both digestibility and decomposability.

Optimizing lifetime reproductive output: Intermittent breeding as a tactic for females in a long-lived, multiparous mammal.

In iteroparous species, intermittent breeding is an important life-history tactic that can greatly affect animal population growth and viability. Despite its importance, few studies have quantified the consequences of breeding pauses on lifetime reproductive output, principally because calculating lifetime reproductive output requires knowledge of each individual's entire reproductive history. This information is extremely difficult to obtain in wild populations. We applied novel statistical approaches that account for uncertainty in state assessment and individual heterogeneity to an 18-year capture-recapture dataset of 6,631 female southern elephant seals from Macquarie Island. We estimated survival and breeding probabilities, and investigated the consequences of intermittent breeding on lifetime reproductive output. We found consistent differences in females' demographic performance between two heterogeneity classes. In particular, breeding imbued a high cost on survival in the females from the heterogeneity class 2, assumed to be females of lower quality. Individual quality also appeared to play a major role in a female's decision to skip reproduction with females of poorer quality more likely to skip breeding events than females of higher quality. Skipping some breeding events allowed females from both heterogeneity classes to increase lifetime reproductive output over females that bred annually. However, females of lower quality produced less offspring over their lifetime. Intermittent breeding seems to be used by female southern elephant seals as a tactic to offset reproductive costs on survival and enhance lifetime reproductive output but remains unavoidable and driven by individual-specific constraints in some other females.

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins.

Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators.

Group size, survival and surprisingly short lifespan in socially foraging bats.

BACKGROUND: The relationships between group size, survival, and longevity vary greatly among social species. Depending on demographic and ecological circumstances, there are both positive and negative effects of group size variation on individual survival and longevity. For socially foraging species in particular there may be an optimal group size that predicts maximum individual survival that is directly related to the potential for information transfer, social coordination, and costs of conspecific interference. Our aim was to investigate this central aspect of evolutionary ecology by focusing on a socially foraging bat, Molossus molossus. This species optimizes foraging success by eavesdropping on the echolocation calls of group members to locate ephemeral food patches. We expected to find the highest survival and longest lifespans in small groups as a consequence of a trade-off between benefits of information transfer on ephemeral resources and costs of conspecific interference. RESULTS: In a mark-recapture study of 14 mixed-sex M. molossus social groups in Gamboa, Panama, spanning several years we found the expected relatively small and intermediate, but stable groups, with a mean size of 9.6 ± 6.7 adults and juveniles. We estimated survival proxies using Cox proportional hazard models and multistate-mark recapture models generated with recapture data as well as automated monitoring of roost entrances in a subset of the groups. Median survival of females was very short with 1.8 years and a maximum estimated longevity of 5.6 years. Contrary to our expectations, we found no relationship between variation in group size and survival, a result similar to few other studies. CONCLUSIONS: Strong selection towards small group size may result from psychoacoustic and cognitive constraints related to acoustic interference in social foraging and the complexity of coordinated flight. The short lifespans were unexpected and may result from life at the energetic edge due to a highly specialized diet. The absence of a relationship between group size and survival may reflect a similar but optimized survival within the selected range of group sizes. We expect the pattern of small group sizes will be consistent in future research on species dependent on social information transfer about ephemeral resources.

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (ß0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (ß1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

Influence of life-history tactics on transient dynamics: a comparative analysis across mammalian populations.

Most mammalian populations suffer from natural or human-induced disturbances; populations are no longer at the equilibrium (i.e., at stable [st]age distribution) and exhibit transient dynamics. From a literature survey, we studied patterns of transient dynamics for mammalian species spanning a large range of life-history tactics and population growth rates. For each population, we built an age-structured matrix and calculated six metrics of transient dynamics. After controlling for possible confounding effects of the phylogenetic relatedness among species using a phylogenetic principal component analysis and phylogenetic generalized least squares models, we found that short-term demographic responses of mammalian populations to disturbance are shaped by generation time and growth rate. Species with a slow pace of life (i.e., species with a late maturity, a low fecundity, and a long life span) displayed decreases in population size after a disturbance, whereas fast-living species increased in population size. The magnitude of short-term variation in population size increased with asymptotic population growth, being buffered in slow-growing species (i.e., species with a low population growth rate) but large in fast-growing species. By demonstrating direct links between transient dynamics, life history (generation time), and ecology (demographic regime), our comparative analysis of transient dynamics clearly improves our understanding of population dynamics in variable environments and has clear implications for future studies of the interplay between evolutionary and ecological dynamics. As most populations in the wild are not at equilibrium, we recommend that analyses of transient dynamics be performed when studying population dynamics in variable environments.

Estimating dispersal among numerous sites using capture-recapture data.

Dispersal affects processes as diverse as habitat selection, population growth, and gene flow. Inference about dispersal and its variation is thus crucial for assessing population and evolutionary dynamics. Two approaches are generally used to estimate dispersal in free-ranging animals. First, multisite capture-recapture models estimate movement rates among sites while accounting for survival and detection probabilities. This approach, however, is limited in the number of sites that can be considered. Second, diffusion models estimate movements within discrete habitat using a diffusion coefficient, resulting in a continuous processing of space. However, this approach has been rarely used because of its mathematical and implementation complexity. Here, we develop a multi-event capture-recapture approach that circumvents the issue of too many sites while being relatively simple to be implemented in existing software. Moreover, this new approach allows the quantifying of memory effects, whereby the decision of dispersing or not on a given year impacts the survival or dispersal likelihood of the following year. We illustrate our approach using a long-term data set on the breeding ecology of a declining passerine in southern Quebec, Canada, the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor).

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.

Age-specific cost of first reproduction in female southern elephant seals.

When to commence breeding is a crucial life-history decision that may be the most important determinant of an individual's lifetime reproductive output and can have major consequences on population dynamics. The age at which individuals first reproduce is an important factor influencing the intensity of potential costs (e.g. reduced survival) involved in the first breeding event. However, quantifying age-related variation in the cost of first reproduction in wild animals remains challenging because of the difficulty in reliably recording the first breeding event. Here, using a multi-event capture-recapture model that accounts for both imperfect detection and uncertainty in the breeding status on an 18-year dataset involving 6637 individuals, we estimated age and state-specific survival of female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in the declining Macquarie Island population. We detected a clear cost of first reproduction on survival. This cost was higher for both younger first-time breeders and older first-time breeders compared with females recruiting at age four, the overall mean age at first reproduction. Neither earlier primiparity nor delaying primiparity appear to confer any evolutionary advantage, rather the optimal strategy seems to be to start breeding at a single age, 4 years.

Statistical ecology comes of age.

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

Bottom-up effects drive the dynamic of an Antarctic seabird predator-prey system.

Understanding how populations respond to variability in environmental conditions and interspecific interactions is one of the biggest challenges of population ecology, particularly in the context of global change. Although many studies have investigated population responses to climate change, very few have explicitly integrated interspecific relationships when studying these responses. In this study, we aimed to understand the combined effects of interspecific interactions and environmental conditions on the demographic parameters of a prey-predator system of three sympatric seabird populations breeding in Antarctica: the south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) and its two main preys during the breeding season, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We built a two-species integrated population model (IPM) with 31 years of capture-recapture and count data and provided a framework that made it possible to estimate the demographic parameters and abundance of a predator-prey system in a context where capture-recapture data were not available for one species. Our results showed that predator-prey interactions and local environmental conditions differentially affected south polar skuas depending on their breeding state of the previous year. Concerning prey-predator relationships, the number of Adélie penguin breeding pairs showed a positive effect on south polar skua survival and breeding probability, and the number of emperor penguin dead chicks showed a positive effect on the breeding success of south polar skuas. In contrast, there was no evidence for an effect of the number of south polar skuas on the demography of Adélie penguins. We also found an important impact of sea ice conditions on both the dynamics of south polar skuas and Adélie penguins. Our results suggest that this prey-predator system is mostly driven by bottom-up processes and local environmental conditions.

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France.

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.