Derivation and Internal Validation of a Novel Risk Assessment Tool to Identify Infants and Young Children at Risk for Post-Discharge Mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate internally a novel risk assessment tool to identify young children at risk for all-cause mortality ≤60 days of discharge from hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a prospective observational cohort study of children aged 1-59 months discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia (2019 to 2022). Caregivers received telephone calls up to 60 days after discharge to ascertain participant vital status. We collected socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric data during hospitalization. Candidate variables with P<0.20 in bivariate analyses were included in a multivariable logistic regression model with best subset selection to identify risk factors for the outcome. We internally validated our tool using bootstrapping with 500 repetitions. RESULTS: There were 1,933 young children enrolled in the study. The median (interquartile range) age was 11 (4, 23) months and 58.7% were male. In total, 67 (3.5%) died during follow-up. Ten variables contributed to our tool (total possible score 82). Cancer (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 10.6, 95% CI 2.58, 34.6), pedal edema (aOR 6.94, 95% CI 1.69, 22.6), and leaving against medical advice (aOR 6.46, 95% CI 2.46, 15.3) were most predictive of post-discharge mortality. Our risk assessment tool demonstrated good discriminatory value (optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.77), high precision, and sufficient calibration. CONCLUSIONS: After validation, this tool may be used to identify young children at risk for post-discharge mortality to direct resources for follow-up of high-risk children.

Improving birth weight measurement and recording practices in Kenya and Tanzania: a prospective intervention study with historical controls.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (LBW) is a significant public health concern given its association with early-life mortality and other adverse health consequences that can impact the entire life cycle. In many countries, accurate estimates of LBW prevalence are lacking due to inaccuracies in collection and gaps in available data. Our study aimed to determine LBW prevalence among facility-born infants in selected areas of Kenya and Tanzania and to assess whether the introduction of an intervention to improve the accuracy of birth weight measurement would result in a meaningfully different estimate of LBW prevalence than current practice. METHODS: We carried out a historically controlled intervention study in 22 health facilities in Kenya and three health facilities in Tanzania. The intervention included: provision of high-quality digital scales, training of nursing staff on accurate birth weight measurement, recording and scale calibration practices, and quality maintenance support that consisted of enhanced supervision and feedback (prospective arm). The historically controlled data were birth weights from the same facilities recorded in maternity registers for the same calendar months from the previous year measured using routine practices and manual scales. We calculated mean birth weight (95% confidence interval CI), mean difference in LBW prevalence, and respective risk ratio (95% CI) between study arms. RESULTS: Between October 2019 and February 2020, we prospectively collected birth weights from 8441 newborns in Kenya and 4294 in Tanzania. Historical data were available from 9318 newborns in Kenya and 12,007 in Tanzania. In the prospective sample, the prevalence of LBW was 12.6% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 10.9%-14.4%) in Kenya and 18.2% (12.2%-24.2%) in Tanzania. In the historical sample, the corresponding prevalence estimates were 7.8% (6.5%-9.2%) and 10.0% (8.6%-11.4%). Compared to the retrospective sample, the LBW prevalence in the prospective sample was 4.8% points (3.2%-6.4%) higher in Kenya and 8.2% points (2.3%-14.0%) higher in Tanzania, corresponding to a risk ratio of 1.61 (1.38-1.88) in Kenya and 1.81 (1.30-2.52) in Tanzania. CONCLUSION: Routine birth weight records underestimate the risk of LBW among facility-born infants in Kenya and Tanzania. The quality of birth weight data can be improved by a simple intervention consisting of provision of digital scales and supportive training.

Latent tuberculosis in children and youth with type 1 diabetes mellitus in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: a cross section survey.

BACKGROUND: Data for latent tuberculosis in patients with type 1 Diabetes in Africa is limited. We assessed the prevalence of latent tuberculosis in youth and children with type 1 Diabetes in Dar es Salaam -Tanzania. METHODS: Our cross-sectional study recruited children and youth with T1DM by stage of puberty, glycaemic control, and age at diagnosis from January to December 2021 in Dar es Salaam. Participants were screened for the presence of latent Tuberculosis using the QuantiFERON test. A positive test was considered to have latent TB. RESULTS: Of the 281 participants, the mean age was 19 (± 6) years, 51.2% were female, and 80.8% had either a primary or secondary level of education at baseline. The prevalence of latent TB was 14.9% and was slightly higher in females (52.4%) than in males. This difference, however, was insignificant (p > 0.05). On the other hand, the proportion of latent TB was significantly higher in uncontrolled HbA1c levels (76.2%) than in those with controlled HbA1c (23.8%) [p = 0.046]. Duration of diabetes and age at diagnosis did not affect the occurrence of latent Tuberculosis [p > 0.05]. Meanwhile, in the regression model, participants with latent TB were more likely to have uncontrolled HbA1c. [p = 0.045] CONCLUSIONS: Despite the methodological limitations, this survey highlights the high prevalence of latent TB among children and youth with diabetes; shouting for better control. These results clearly show the need to screen for Tuberculosis in children and youth with diabetes and start them on prevention as per protocol, especially in tuberculosis-endemic areas like Tanzania.

Morbidity and unplanned healthcare encounters after hospital discharge among young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Researchers and healthcare providers have paid little attention to morbidity and unplanned healthcare encounters for children following hospital discharge in low- and middle-income countries. Our objective was to compare symptoms and unplanned healthcare encounters among children aged <5 years who survived with those who died within 60 days of hospital discharge through follow-up phone calls. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort of children aged <5 years discharged from neonatal and paediatric wards of two national referral hospitals in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia. Caregivers of enrolled participants received phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45, and 60 days after hospital discharge to record symptoms, unplanned healthcare encounters, and vital status. We used logistic regression to determine the association between reported symptoms and unplanned healthcare encounters with 60-day post-discharge mortality. RESULTS: A total of 4243 participants were enrolled and had 60-day vital status available; 138 (3.3%) died. For every additional symptom ever reported following discharge, there was a 35% greater likelihood of post-discharge mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 1.66; p=0.004). The greatest survival difference was noted for children who had difficulty breathing (2.1% among those who survived vs 36.0% among those who died, p<0.001). Caregivers who took their child home from the hospital against medical advice during the initial hospitalisation had over eight times greater odds of post-discharge mortality (aOR 8.06, 95% CI 3.87 to 16.3; p<0.001) and those who were readmitted to a hospital had 3.42 greater odds (95% CI 1.55 to 8.47; p=0.004) of post-discharge mortality than those who did not seek care when adjusting for site, sociodemographic factors, and clinical variables. CONCLUSION: Surveillance for symptoms and repeated admissions following hospital discharge by healthcare providers is crucial to identify children at risk for post-discharge mortality.

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool.

INTRODUCTION: The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality. METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions. RESULTS: There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]). CONCLUSIONS: A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

Predictive value of clinician impression for readmission and postdischarge mortality among neonates and young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.

BACKGROUND: There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality. METHODS: We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes. RESULTS: Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.

Aetiology, antimicrobial susceptibility and outcome of children with sepsis, admitted at Muhimbili National Hospital, Dar es Salaam.

Introduction: sepsis is defined as a systemic inflammatory host response syndrome (SIRS) to infection, commonly bacterial. The global prevalence of sepsis is 8.2% with a mortality rate of 25%, whilst in Tanzania the prevalence is 6.6%. Treatment of sepsis involves early initiation of antibiotics based on local sensitivity patterns. However, there is an increase in antimicrobial resistance to commonly used antibiotics. Hence to promote rational use of antibiotics, we aimed at establishing the etiology, local susceptibility patterns and outcome of children with sepsis aged 2 months to 15 years, admitted at Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH), Dar es Salaam. Methods: a hospital based prospective cross sectional study was conducted among 245 participants who were consecutively recruited. A standardized structured questionnaire was used to collect information. Blood cultures and complete blood counts were done. Antimicrobial susceptibility was also done on positive cultures using disc diffusion method. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Frequencies and proportions were used to summarize categorical data, whilst median and interquartile range was used to summarize continuous data. Student T test was used to compare means of data which were normally distributed and the differences in proportions were tested using Chi square test or Fisher's exact test. A p value of = 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Results: there was predominance of male participants (67.5%) with a median age was 2 years and an interquartile range (IQR) 10 months to 4 years. Culture positive sepsis was detected among 29.8% of the participants, and the common Gram-positive bacterial isolates were S. aureus (39.7%) Coagulase Negative Staphylococcus (CoNS) (35.6%) and Gram-negative isolates were E. coli (12.3%), Klebsiella spp (6.8%) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (5.5%). All bacteria showed a high resistance to ampicillin (80%- 100%) followed by ceftriaxone (40 - 70%). All Pseudomonas aeruginosawere 100% resistant to ampicillin, gentamycin and ceftriaxone but were sensitive to amikacin. There was less than 40% resistance to co-amoxiclav, meropenem, ciprofloxacin, amikacin, and clindamycin. The overall case mortality rate from sepsis was 9.4%. Among children discharged 59.3% had prolonged hospital stay of more than 7 days. Age group 1 to 5 years, prior use of antibiotics, tachycardia, and leukocytosis were significantly associated with high mortality. Conclusion: bacterial sepsis is prevalent at Muhimbili National Hospital contributing to 9.4% of mortality and a prolonged hospital stay of more than 7 days among 59.3% of the participants. Gram-positive bacteria were found to be predominant cause of sepsis, whereas both Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria had a high resistance to first and second line antimicrobials including: ampicillin, gentamycin, and ceftriaxone.

A Prospective, observational cohort study to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia: the PPDM study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Over half of the 5 million annual deaths among children aged 0-59 months occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The period immediately after hospitalisation is a vulnerable time in the life of a child in sub-Saharan Africa as postdischarge mortality rates are as high as 1%-18%. Identification of neonates and children who are at highest risk for postdischarge mortality may allow for the direction of interventions to target patients at highest risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Predicting Post-Discharge Mortality study is a prospective, observational study being conducted at Muhimbili National Hospital (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and John F. Kennedy Medical Center (Monrovia, Liberia). The aim is to derive and validate two, age population specific, clinical prediction rules for the identification of neonates (n=2000) and children aged 1-59 months (n=2000) at risk for all-cause mortality within 60 days of discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit or paediatric ward. Caregivers of participants will receive phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45 and 60 days after discharge to assess vital status. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic, anthropometric and clinical factors. Elastic net regression will be used to derive the clinical prediction rules. Bootstrapped selection with repetitions will be used for internal validation. Planned secondary analyses include the external validation of existing clinical prediction models, determination of clinicians' ability to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality at discharge, analysis of factors associated with hospital readmission and unplanned clinic visits and description of health-seeking behaviours in the postdischarge period. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study received ethical clearance from the Tanzania National Institute of Medical Research, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, the John F. Kennedy Medical Center Institutional Review Board, and the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and as peer-reviewed publications.

Spectrum of paediatric rheumatic disorders at a tertiary hospital in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Paediatric rheumatic disorders are common in children and result in significant impairment in quality of life, morbidity and mortality. There is limited information on the burden of these disorders in lower income countries especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Few case reports have documented presence of paediatric rheumatic disorders in Tanzania. This study was conducted to determine the spectrum of rheumatic disorders among children at Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH). METHODS: This was a retrospective study conducted among children who were attended at MNH between January 2012 and August 2019. Paediatric patients seen in the out-patient clinics and those admitted in the wards were eligible. All patients with diagnosis of rheumatic disorders were identified from admission books and outpatient clinic logbooks, and later data were collected from their case notes and were recorded in clinical research forms. Collected information included age, sex, clinical features and laboratory tests results. RESULTS: A total of 52 children with mean age of 9.5 ± 4.3 years, 12 (40.4%) participants were aged above 10 years and 32 (61.5%) were females. Frequently reported clinical presentations were joint pain 44 (84.6%), joint swelling 34 (65.4%), fever 24 (46.2%) and skin rashes 21(40.4%). Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) was the predominant diagnosis reported in 28 (53.8%) participants followed by juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus 8 (15.4%), mixed connective tissue diseases 4 (7.7%) and juvenile dermatomyositis 4 (7.7%). Antinuclear antibody test was performed in 16 participants it was positive in 9 (56.2%). Nine participants were tested for anti-double stranded DNA test and 5 (55.6%) were positive for this test. C-reactive protein was tested in 46 participants out of which 32 (69.6%) had elevated levels. HIV was tested in 24 (46.2%) participants and results were negative. Thirty-five out of 52 (67.3%) participants had anaemia. Predominant drugs used for treatment of JIA include prednisolone and methotrexate. CONCLUSIONS: Paediatric rheumatic disorders are not uncommon in Tanzania-and were noted to affect more female children in this study. Predominant conditions included juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) and juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM).

Vitamin D-Resistant Rickets Diagnostics and Treatment Challenges at Muhimbili National Hospital, Tanzania.

Introduction. Rickets is softening of bones caused by defective mineralization of the cartilage in the epiphyseal growth plate, causing widening of the ends of long bones, growth retardation, and skeletal deformities in children. It can be classified into calciopenic and phosphopenic, each type with various subclasses. Case Presentations. We presented 2 cases, first of a 1 year and 4-month-old male, with a history of recurrent episodes of cough for 8 months and bowing of the legs 6 months prior to admission. Clinical and laboratory investigation was suggestive of vitamin D-dependent rickets, and he started vitamin D treatment with minimal response. The second case is of a 4 years and 7-month-old male who presented with developmental delay, poor weight gain, and recurrent chest infection and worsening of bone pain since 9 months of age. Laboratory investigation was suggestive of phosphopenic rickets, and he was started on treatment at 9 months of age with little improvement and at 4 years, he sustained multiple fractures and succumbed to severe respiratory tract infection and died at 4 years and 7 months of age. CONCLUSION: Rickets pose a diagnostic and treatment challenge in resource-limited countries, and clinical judgment and early initiation of treatment are important.

Collodion baby treated at a tertiary hospital in Tanzania: a case report.

BACKGROUND: The term "collodion baby" is used to describe a newborn covered with a translucent, parchment-like skin sheet. It is an extremely rare condition with an estimated incidence of 1 in 300,000 live births. Clinically, the baby will present with a collodion membrane with fissures, ectropium, eclabium, and hypoplastic digits. Shedding of the membrane increases risk of dehydration and infection. CASE PRESENTATION: We present the case of an African baby girl, who died when she was 7-months old, who presented with features of collodion membrane at birth. She later developed hypernatremic dehydration and a constricted band on her lower limb that required urgent surgical release. She stayed in our hospital for 35 days; she was then discharged home after improvement for 6 months of follow-up clinics at Muhimbili National Hospital: neonatal; dermatology; ear, nose, and throat; and physiotherapy units. She died at 7 months of age. CONCLUSION: Despite limited resources, the early survival of these babies can be improved by providing basic care.