Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs.

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source's infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model-which make use of different information within a tree-suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

The Number and Pattern of Viral Genomic Reassortments are not Necessarily Identifiable from Segment Trees.

Reassortment is an evolutionary process common in viruses with segmented genomes. These viruses can swap whole genomic segments during cellular co-infection, giving rise to novel progeny formed from the mixture of parental segments. Since large-scale genome rearrangements have the potential to generate new phenotypes, reassortment is important to both evolutionary biology and public health research. However, statistical inference of the pattern of reassortment events from phylogenetic data is exceptionally difficult, potentially involving inference of general graphs in which individual segment trees are embedded. In this paper, we argue that, in general, the number and pattern of reassortment events are not identifiable from segment trees alone, even with theoretically ideal data. We call this fact the fundamental problem of reassortment, which we illustrate using the concept of the "first-infection tree," a potentially counterfactual genealogy that would have been observed in the segment trees had no reassortment occurred. Further, we illustrate four additional problems that can arise logically in the inference of reassortment events and show, using simulated data, that these problems are not rare and can potentially distort our observation of reassortment even in small data sets. Finally, we discuss how existing methods can be augmented or adapted to account for not only the fundamental problem of reassortment, but also the four additional situations that can complicate the inference of reassortment.

Effects of Plasticity on Elevational Range Size and Species Richness.

AbstractElevational ranges within many taxa are greater in the north temperate region than the tropics. Two hypotheses to explain the pattern are, first, that large elevational ranges in the temperate region arise because species have evolved broad tolerance curves in response to seasonality and, second, that a low diversification rate in the temperate region (speciation minus extinction) has led to relatively few species, each of which occupies a large elevational range in the absence of competitors (character release). We build a quantitative genetic model of selection on a phenotypic trait, whereby increased tolerance is modeled as arising from plasticity in the trait. We show that broad tolerances result in evolution of large elevational ranges because they induce shallower genotypic clines and hence reduced maladaptive gene flow. The evolution of large elevational ranges results in relatively few competing species arranged along the elevational gradient at a species carrying capacity. In such saturated communities, species have much elevational overlap. In contrast, in similar-sized communities that could accommodate many more species, the resulting character release is associated with smaller elevational overlaps. Empirical assessment of these predictions should contribute to assessing any role for ecological limits in driving the latitudinal diversity gradient in species richness.

Diversification or Collapse of Self-Incompatibility Haplotypes as a Rescue Process.

AbstractIn angiosperm self-incompatibility systems, pollen with an allele matching the pollen recipient at the self-incompatibility locus is rejected. Extreme allelic polymorphism is maintained by frequency-dependent selection favoring rare alleles. However, two challenges result in a chicken-or-egg problem for the spread of a new allele (a tightly linked haplotype in this case) under the widespread "collaborative non-self-recognition" mechanism. A novel pollen function mutation alone would merely grant compatibility with a nonexistent style function allele: a neutral change at best. A novel pistil function mutation alone could be fertilized only by pollen with a nonexistent pollen function allele: a deleterious change that would reduce seed set to zero. However, a pistil function mutation complementary to a previously neutral pollen mutation may spread if it restores self-incompatibility to a self-compatible intermediate. We show that novel haplotypes can also drive elimination of existing ones with fewer siring opportunities. We calculate relative probabilities of increase and collapse in haplotype number given the initial collection of incompatibility haplotypes and the population gene conversion rate. Expansion in haplotype number is possible when population gene conversion rate is large, but large contractions are likely otherwise. A Markov chain model derived from these expansion and collapse probabilities generates a stable haplotype number distribution in the realistic range of 10-40 under plausible parameters. However, smaller populations might lose many haplotypes beyond those lost by chance during bottlenecks.

Memory in Trait Macroevolution.

The history of a trait within a lineage may influence its future evolutionary trajectory, but macroevolutionary theory of this process is not well developed. For example, consider the simplified binary trait of living in cave versus surface habitat. The longer a species has been cave dwelling, the more accumulated loss of vision, pigmentation, and defense may restrict future adaptation if the species encounters the surface environment. However, the Markov model of discrete trait evolution that is widely adopted in phylogenetics does not allow the rate of cave-to-surface transition to decrease with longer duration as a cave dweller. Here we describe three models of evolution that remove this memoryless constraint, using a renewal process to generalize beyond the typical Poisson process of discrete trait macroevolution. We then show how the two-state renewal process can be used for inference, and we investigate the potential of phylogenetic comparative data to reveal different influences of trait duration, or memory in trait evolution. We hope that such approaches may open new avenues for modeling trait evolution and for broad comparative tests of hypotheses that some traits become entrenched.

Interaction among ploidy, breeding system and lineage diversification.

If particular traits consistently affect rates of speciation and extinction, broad macroevolutionary patterns can be interpreted as consequences of selection at high levels of the biological hierarchy. Identifying traits associated with diversification rates is difficult because of the wide variety of characters under consideration and the statistical challenges of testing for associations from comparative phylogenetic data. Ploidy (diploid vs polyploid states) and breeding system (self-incompatible vs self-compatible states) are both thought to be drivers of differential diversification in angiosperms. We fit 29 diversification models to extensive trait and phylogenetic data in Solanaceae and investigate how speciation and extinction rate differences are associated with ploidy, breeding system, and the interaction between these traits. We show that diversification patterns in Solanaceae are better explained by breeding system and an additional unobserved factor, rather than by ploidy. We also find that the most common evolutionary pathway to polyploidy in Solanaceae occurs via direct breakdown of self-incompatibility by whole genome duplication, rather than indirectly via breakdown followed by polyploidization. Comparing multiple stochastic diversification models that include complex trait interactions alongside hidden states enhances our understanding of the macroevolutionary patterns in plant phylogenies.

The evolutionary response of mating system to heterosis.

Isolation allows populations to diverge and to fix different alleles. Deleterious alleles that reach locally high frequencies contribute to genetic load, especially in inbred or selfing populations, in which selection is relaxed. In the event of secondary contact, the recessive portion of the genetic load is masked in the hybrid offspring, producing heterosis. This advantage, only attainable through outcrossing, should favour evolution of greater outcrossing even if inbreeding depression has been purged from the contributing populations. Why, then, are selfing-to-outcrossing transitions not more common? To evaluate the evolutionary response of mating system to heterosis, we model two monomorphic populations of entirely selfing individuals, introduce a modifier allele that increases the rate of outcrossing and investigate whether the heterosis among populations is sufficient for the modifier to invade and fix. We find that the outcrossing mutation invades for many parameter choices, but it rarely fixes unless populations harbour extremely large unique fixed genetic loads. Reversions to outcrossing become more likely as the load becomes more polygenic, or when the modifier appears on a rare background, such as by dispersal of an outcrossing genotype into a selfing population. More often, the outcrossing mutation instead rises to moderate frequency, which allows recombination in hybrids to produce superior haplotypes that can spread without the mutation's further assistance. The transience of heterosis can therefore explain why secondary contact does not commonly yield selfing-to-outcrossing transitions.

Detecting the macroevolutionary signal of species interactions.

Species interactions lie at the heart of many theories of macroevolution, from adaptive radiation to the Red Queen. Although some theories describe the imprint that interactions will have over long timescales, we are still missing a comprehensive understanding of the effects of interactions on macroevolution. Current research shows strong evidence for the impact of interactions on macroevolutionary patterns of trait evolution and diversification, yet many macroevolutionary studies have only a tenuous relationship to ecological studies of interactions over shorter timescales. We review current research in this area, highlighting approaches that explicitly model species interactions and connect them to broad-scale macroevolutionary patterns. We also suggest that progress has been made by taking an integrative interdisciplinary look at individual clades. We focus on African cichlids as a case study of how this approach can be fruitful. Overall, although the evidence for species interactions shaping macroevolution is strong, further work using integrative and model-based approaches is needed to spur progress towards understanding the complex dynamics that structure communities over time and space.

Fossils, phylogenies, and the challenge of preserving evolutionary history in the face of anthropogenic extinctions.

Anthropogenic impacts are endangering many long-lived species and lineages, possibly leading to a disproportionate loss of existing evolutionary history (EH) in the future. However, surprisingly little is known about the loss of EH during major extinctions in the geological past, and thus we do not know whether human impacts are pruning the tree of life in a manner that is unique in the history of life. A major impediment to comparing the loss of EH during past and current extinctions is the conceptual difference in how ages are estimated from paleontological data versus molecular phylogenies. In the former case the age of a taxon is its entire stratigraphic range, regardless of how many daughter taxa it may have produced; for the latter it is the time to the most recent common ancestor shared with another extant taxon. To explore this issue, we use simulations to understand how the loss of EH is manifested in the two data types. We also present empirical analyses of the marine bivalve clade Pectinidae (scallops) during a major Plio-Pleistocene extinction in California that involved a preferential loss of younger species. Overall, our results show that the conceptual difference in how ages are estimated from the stratigraphic record versus molecular phylogenies does not preclude comparisons of age selectivities of past and present extinctions. Such comparisons not only provide fundamental insights into the nature of the extinction process but should also help improve evolutionarily informed models of conservation prioritization.

Self-compatibility is over-represented on islands.

Because establishing a new population often depends critically on finding mates, individuals capable of uniparental reproduction may have a colonization advantage. Accordingly, there should be an over-representation of colonizing species in which individuals can reproduce without a mate, particularly in isolated locales such as oceanic islands. Despite the intuitive appeal of this colonization filter hypothesis (known as Baker's law), more than six decades of analyses have yielded mixed findings. We assembled a dataset of island and mainland plant breeding systems, focusing on the presence or absence of self-incompatibility. Because this trait enforces outcrossing and is unlikely to re-evolve on short timescales if it is lost, breeding system is especially likely to reflect the colonization filter. We found significantly more self-compatible species on islands than mainlands across a sample of > 1500 species from three widely distributed flowering plant families (Asteraceae, Brassicaceae and Solanaceae). Overall, 66% of island species were self-compatible, compared with 41% of mainland species. Our results demonstrate that the presence or absence of self-incompatibility has strong explanatory power for plant geographical patterns. Island floras around the world thus reflect the role of a key reproductive trait in filtering potential colonizing species in these three plant families.

Not just a theory--the utility of mathematical models in evolutionary biology.

Progress in science often begins with verbal hypotheses meant to explain why certain biological phenomena exist. An important purpose of mathematical models in evolutionary research, as in many other fields, is to act as "proof-of-concept" tests of the logic in verbal explanations, paralleling the way in which empirical data are used to test hypotheses. Because not all subfields of biology use mathematics for this purpose, misunderstandings of the function of proof-of-concept modeling are common. In the hope of facilitating communication, we discuss the role of proof-of-concept modeling in evolutionary biology.

Dioecy does not consistently accelerate or slow lineage diversification across multiple genera of angiosperms.

Dioecy, the sexual system in which male and female organs are found in separate individuals, allows greater specialization for sex-specific functions and can be advantageous under various ecological and environmental conditions. However, dioecy is rare among flowering plants. Previous studies identified contradictory trends regarding the relative diversification rates of dioecious lineages vs their nondioecious counterparts, depending on the methods and data used. We gathered detailed species-level data for dozens of genera that contain both dioecious and nondioecious species. We then applied a probabilistic approach that accounts for differential speciation, extinction, and transition rates between states to examine whether there is an association between dioecy and lineage diversification. We found a bimodal distribution, whereby dioecious lineages exhibited higher diversification in certain genera but lower diversification in others. Additional analyses did not uncover an ecological or life history trait that could explain a context-dependent effect of dioecy on diversification. Furthermore, in-depth simulations of neutral characters demonstrated that such bimodality is also found when simulating neutral characters across the observed trees. Our analyses suggest that - at least for these genera with the currently available data - dioecy neither consistently places a strong brake on diversification nor is a strong driver.

Model inadequacy and mistaken inferences of trait-dependent speciation.

Species richness varies widely across the tree of life, and there is great interest in identifying ecological, geographic, and other factors that affect rates of species proliferation. Recent methods for explicitly modeling the relationships among character states, speciation rates, and extinction rates on phylogenetic trees- BiSSE, QuaSSE, GeoSSE, and related models-have been widely used to test hypotheses about character state-dependent diversification rates. Here, we document the disconcerting ease with which neutral traits are inferred to have statistically significant associations with speciation rate. We first demonstrate this unfortunate effect for a known model assumption violation: shifts in speciation rate associated with a character not included in the model. We further show that for many empirical phylogenies, characters simulated in the absence of state-dependent diversification exhibit an even higher Type I error rate, indicating that the method is susceptible to additional, unknown model inadequacies. For traits that evolve slowly, the root cause appears to be a statistical framework that does not require replicated shifts in character state and diversification. However, spurious associations between character state and speciation rate arise even for traits that lack phylogenetic signal, suggesting that phylogenetic pseudoreplication alone cannot fully explain the problem. The surprising severity of this phenomenon suggests that many trait-diversification relationships reported in the literature may not be real. More generally, we highlight the need for diagnosing and understanding the consequences of model inadequacy in phylogenetic comparative methods.

No association between plant mating system and geographic range overlap.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Automatic self-fertilization may influence the geography of speciation, promote reproductive isolation between incipient species, and lead to ecological differentiation. As such, selfing taxa are predicted to co-occur more often with their closest relatives than are outcrossing taxa. Despite suggestions that this pattern may be general, the extent to which mating system influences range overlap in close relatives has not been tested formally across a diverse group of plant species pairs. METHODS: We tested for a difference in range overlap between species pairs for which zero, one, or both species are selfers, using data from 98 sister species pairs in 20 genera across 15 flowering plant families. We also used divergence time estimates from time-calibrated phylogenies to ask how range overlap changes with divergence time and whether this effect depends on mating system. KEY RESULTS: We found no evidence that automatic self-fertilization influenced range overlap of closely related plant species. Sister pairs with more recent divergence times had modestly greater range overlap, but this effect did not depend on mating system. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of a strong influence of mating system on range overlap suggests that mating system plays a minor or inconsistent role compared with many other mechanisms potentially influencing the co-occurrence of close relatives.

Phylogenetic evidence for cladogenetic polyploidization in land plants.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Polyploidization is a common and recurring phenomenon in plants and is often thought to be a mechanism of "instant speciation". Whether polyploidization is associated with the formation of new species (cladogenesis) or simply occurs over time within a lineage (anagenesis), however, has never been assessed systematically. METHODS: We tested this hypothesis using phylogenetic and karyotypic information from 235 plant genera (mostly angiosperms). We first constructed a large database of combined sequence and chromosome number data sets using an automated procedure. We then applied likelihood models (ClaSSE) that estimate the degree of synchronization between polyploidization and speciation events in maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. KEY RESULTS: Our maximum likelihood analysis indicated that 35 genera supported a model that includes cladogenetic transitions over a model with only anagenetic transitions, whereas three genera supported a model that incorporates anagenetic transitions over one with only cladogenetic transitions. Furthermore, the Bayesian analysis supported a preponderance of cladogenetic change in four genera but did not support a preponderance of anagenetic change in any genus. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these phylogenetic analyses provide the first broad confirmation that polyploidization is temporally associated with speciation events, suggesting that it is indeed a major speciation mechanism in plants, at least in some genera.

Geographic range size is predicted by plant mating system.

Species' geographic ranges vary enormously, and even closest relatives may differ in range size by several orders of magnitude. With data from hundreds of species spanning 20 genera in 15 families, we show that plant species that autonomously reproduce via self-pollination consistently have larger geographic ranges than their close relatives that generally require two parents for reproduction. Further analyses strongly implicate autonomous self-fertilisation in causing this relationship, as it is not driven by traits such as polyploidy or annual life history whose evolution is sometimes correlated with selfing. Furthermore, we find that selfers occur at higher maximum latitudes and that disparity in range size between selfers and outcrossers increases with time since their evolutionary divergence. Together, these results show that autonomous reproduction--a critical biological trait that eliminates mate limitation and thus potentially increases the probability of establishment--increases range size.

The scope of Baker's law.

Baker's law refers to the tendency for species that establish on islands by long-distance dispersal to show an increased capacity for self-fertilization because of the advantage of self-compatibility when colonizing new habitat. Despite its intuitive appeal and broad empirical support, it has received substantial criticism over the years since it was proclaimed in the 1950s, not least because it seemed to be contradicted by the high frequency of dioecy on islands. Recent theoretical work has again questioned the generality and scope of Baker's law. Here, we attempt to discern where the idea is useful to apply and where it is not. We conclude that several of the perceived problems with Baker's law fall away when a narrower perspective is adopted on how it should be circumscribed. We emphasize that Baker's law should be read in terms of an enrichment of a capacity for uniparental reproduction in colonizing situations, rather than of high selfing rates. We suggest that Baker's law might be tested in four different contexts, which set the breadth of its scope: the colonization of oceanic islands, metapopulation dynamics with recurrent colonization, range expansions with recurrent colonization, and colonization through species invasions.

Tempo and mode of flower color evolution.

UNLABELLED: • PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Flower color is one of the best-studied floral traits in terms of its genetic basis and ecological significance, yet few studies have examined the processes that shape its evolution across deep timescales. Advances in comparative methods along with larger phylogenies for floral radiations offer new opportunities for investigating the macroevolution of flower color.• METHODS: We examined the tempo and mode of flower color evolution in four clades (Antirrhineae, Iochrominae, Loeselieae, Quamoclit) using models that incorporate trait transitions and lineage diversification. Focusing on floral anthocyanin pigmentation, we estimated rates of gain and loss of pigmentation and tested whether these changes occur predominantly through anagenesis or cladogenesis.• KEY RESULTS: We found that the tempo of pigment gains and losses varied significantly across the clades and that the rates of change were often asymmetrical, favoring gains over losses. The mode of color shifts tended to be cladogenetic, particularly for gains of color; however, this trend was not significant.• CONCLUSIONS: Given that all flowering plants share the same pathway for producing anthocyanins, the marked variation in the tempo of transitions across the four groups suggests differences in the selective forces acting on floral pigmentation. These ecological and physiological factors, together with genetic basis for color, may also explain the bias toward gains of floral anthocyanins. Estimates for cladogenetic and anagenetic rates suggest that color transitions can occur through both modes, although testing their relative importance will require larger datasets.

Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth.

The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits.

Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from 'zero-COVID' policy.

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict 'zero-COVID' policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.