Racial disparity in mortality from tuberculosis in the US between states with and without a history of Jim-Crow laws: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and risk factors study, 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: While TB-related mortality in the US declined four-fold from 1990 to 2019, country-level estimates of TB burden obscure within-state racial heterogeneity and changes in TB burden over time. In sixteen US Southern States and Washington DC, the effects of health inequities engendered by Jim-Crow laws enacted from the late 1800s to the 1960s have not been evaluated for TB-related mortality. We, therefore, sought to compare TB mortality rates and annualized rate of change (AROC) between 1990 and 2019 in former Jim-Crow vs. non-Jim-Crow states to help guide response efforts and inform resource prioritization to improve racial equity. METHODS: We evaluated whether TB-related mortality varied over time, from 1990 to 2019, between states that have a history of enacting Jim-Crow laws vs. states with no such history using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019). TB mortality per 100,000 population and bootstrap 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were modeled using the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) framework with varying combinations of predictive covariates. For changes over time, we present age-standardized AROC as the percent difference in the natural logarithm of the rate in 1990 and 2019 divided by 30 (i.e., 100*[ln(2019 Rate/1990 Rate)/(30)) and the corresponding 95% UIs. RESULTS: TB-related mortality in all US states declined between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, most former Jim-Crow states had higher mortality rates than states that did not enact Jim-Crow laws. The most significant decline in TB mortality was in Washington DC, with a six-fold decline from 2.69 (2.46-2.96) per 100,000 population in 1990 to 0.45(0.37-0.55) in 2019, corresponding to an AROC of -0.83% (-0.86;-0.79). The lowest decline was in Iowa, from 0.30 (0.27-0.33) to 0.09 (0.07-0.11) (AROC: -0.70% (-0.76; -0.63)). Eleven of the 16 states and Washington DC in the third tertile of TB mortality rate in 1990 (range 0.81-2.69) had a history of Jim-Crow laws, whereas none of the 17 states in the first tertile (range 0.30-0.51) had such history. Conversely, mortality decreased relatively slowly in former Jim-Crow states than in non-Jim-Crow states. CONCLUSIONS: Even though the 1964 Civil Rights Act dismantled Jim-Crow statutes, racial inequities in TB burden experienced by past generations may still be felt in subsequent generations. Understanding the role of structural racism at the intersection of science and medicine shows the complex ways historical laws, such as Jim-Crow laws, continue to negatively impact health outcomes and warn of future dangers, such as COVID-19, to avoid.

Relation of MRI Aortic Wall Area and Plaque to Incident Cardiovascular Events: The Framingham Heart Study.

Background Arterial arteriosclerosis and atherosclerosis reflect vascular disease, the subclinical detection of which allows opportunity for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. Larger cohort studies simultaneously quantifying anatomic thoracic and abdominal aortic pathologic abnormalities are lacking in the literature. Purpose To investigate the association of aortic wall area (AWA) and atherosclerotic plaque presence and burden as measured on MRI scans with incident CVD in a community sample. Materials and Methods In this prospective cohort study, participants in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort without prevalent CVD underwent 1.5-T MRI (between 2002-2005) of the descending thoracic and abdominal aorta with electrocardiogram-gated axial T2-weighted black-blood acquisitions. The wall thickness of the thoracic aorta was measured at the pulmonary bifurcation level and used to calculate the AWA as the difference between cross-sectional vessel area and lumen area. For primary or secondary analyses, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of aortic MRI measures with risk of first-incident CVD events or stroke and coronary heart disease, respectively. Results In 1513 study participants (mean age, 64 years ± 9 [SD]; 842 women [56%]), 223 CVD events occurred during follow-up (median, 13.1 years), of which 97 were major events (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or CVD death). In multivariable analysis, thoracic AWA and prevalent thoracic plaque were associated with incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 per SD unit [95% CI: 1.05, 1.37] [P = .006] and HR, 1.63 [95% CI: 1.12, 2.35] [P = .01], respectively). AWA and prevalent thoracic plaque were associated with increased hazards: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.62; P = .01) and 2.20 (95% CI: 1.28, 3.79; P = .005), for stroke and coronary heart disease, respectively. Conclusion In middle-aged community-dwelling adults, thoracic aortic wall area (AWA), plaque prevalence, and plaque volumes measured with MRI were independently associated with incident cardiovascular disease, with AWA associated in particular with stroke, and plaque associated with coronary heart disease. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00041418 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Peshock in this issue.

Intersection of HIV and Anemia in women of reproductive age: a 10-year analysis of three Zimbabwe demographic health surveys, 2005-2015.

BACKGROUND: Women of reproductive age 15-49 are at a high risk of iron-deficiency anemia, which in turn may contribute to maternal morbidity and mortality. Common causes of anemia include poor nutrition, infections, malaria, HIV, and treatments for HIV. We conducted a secondary analysis to study the prevalence of and associated risk factors for anemia in women to elucidate the intersection of HIV and anemia using data from 3 cycles of Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) conducted in 2005, 2010, and 2015. METHODS: DHS design comprises of a two-stage cluster-sampling to monitor and evaluate indicators for population health. A field hemoglobin test was conducted in eligible women. Anemia was defined as hemoglobin < 11.0 g/dL in pregnant women; < 12.0 in nonpregnant women. Chi-squared test and multivariable logistic regression analysis accounting for complex survey design were used to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with anemia. RESULTS: Prevalence (95% confidence interval (CI)) of anemia was 37.8(35.9-39.7), 28.2(26.9-29.5), 27.8(26.5-29.1) in 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. Approximately 9.4, 7.2, and 6.1%, of women had moderate anemia; (Hgb 7-9.9) while 1.0, 0.7, and 0.6% of women had severe anemia (Hgb < 7 g/dL)), in 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. Risk factors associated with anemia included HIV (HIV+: 2005: OR (95% CI) = 2.40(2.03-2.74), 2010: 2.35(1.99-2.77), and 2015: 2.48(2.18-2.83)]; Residence in 2005 and 2010 [(2005: 1.33(1.08-1.65), 2010: 1.26(1.03-1.53)]; Pregnant or breastfeeding women [2005: 1.31(1.16-1.47), 2010: 1.23(1.09-1.34)]; not taking iron supplementation [2005: 1.17(1.03-1.33), 2010: 1.23(1.09-1.40), and2015: 1.24(1.08-1.42)]. Masvingo, Matebeleland South, and Bulawayo provinces had the highest burden of anemia across the three DHS Cycles. Manicaland and Mashonaland East had the lowest burden. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of anemia in Zimbabwe declined between 2005 and 2015 but provinces of Matebeleland South and Bulawayo were hot spots with little or no change HIV positive women had higher prevalence than HIV negative women. The multidimensional causes and drivers of anemia in women require an integrated approach to help ameliorate anemia and its negative health effects on the women's health. Prevention strategies such as promoting iron-rich food and food fortification, providing universal iron supplementation targeting lowveld provinces and women with HIV, pregnant or breastfeeding are required.

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery restores insulin-mediated glucose partitioning and mitochondrial dynamics in primary myotubes from severely obese humans.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Impaired insulin-mediated glucose partitioning is an intrinsic metabolic defect in skeletal muscle from severely obese humans (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2). Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery has been shown to improve glucose metabolism in severely obese humans. The purpose of the study was to determine the effects of RYGB surgery on glucose partitioning, mitochondrial network morphology, and the markers of mitochondrial dynamics skeletal muscle from severely obese humans. SUBJECT/METHODS: Human skeletal muscle cells were isolated from muscle biopsies obtained from RYGB patients (BMI = 48.0 ± 2.1, n = 7) prior to, 1 month and 7 months following surgery and lean control subjects (BMI = 22.4 ± 1.1, n = 7). Complete glucose oxidation, non-oxidized glycolysis rates, mitochondrial respiratory capacity, mitochondrial network morphology, and the regulatory proteins of mitochondrial dynamics were determined in differentiated human myotubes. RESULTS: Myotubes derived from severely obese humans exhibited enhanced glucose oxidation (13.5%; 95% CI [7.6, 19.4], P = 0.043) and reduced non-oxidized glycolysis (-1.3%; 95% CI [-11.1, 8.6]) in response to insulin stimulation at 7 months after RYGB when compared with the presurgery state (-0.6%; 95% CI [-5.2, 4.0] and 19.5%; 95% CI [4.0, 35.0], P = 0.006), and were not different from the lean controls (16.7%; 95% CI [11.8, 21.5] and 1.9%; 95% CI [-1.6, 5.4], respectively). Further, the number of fragmented mitochondria and Drp1(Ser616) phosphorylation were trended to reduce/reduced (0.0104, 95% CI [0.0085, 0.0126], P = 0.091 and 0.0085, 95% CI [0.0068, 0.0102], P = 0.05) in myotubes derived from severely obese humans at 7 months after RYGB surgery in comparison with the presurgery state. Finally, Drp1(Ser616) phosphorylation was negatively correlated with insulin-stimulated glucose oxidation (r = -0.49, P = 0.037). CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: These data indicate that an intrinsic metabolic defect of glucose partitioning in skeletal muscle from severely obese humans is restored by RYGB surgery. The restoration of glucose partitioning may be regulated through reduced mitochondrial fission protein Drp1 phosphorylation.

Oral rehydration solution coverage in under 5 children with diarrhea: a tri-country, subnational, cross-sectional comparative analysis of two demographic health surveys cycles.

BACKGROUND: More than 3 million children under 5 years in developing countries die from dehydration due to diarrhea, a preventable and treatable disease. We conducted a comparative analysis of two Demographic Health Survey (DHS) cycles to examine changes in ORS coverage in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi. These surveys are cross-sectional conducted on a representative sample of the non-institutionalized individuals. METHODS: The sample is drawn using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling design with census enumeration areas, typically, selected first as primary sampling units (PSUs) and then a fixed number of households from each PSU. We examined national and sub-regional prevalence of ORS use during a recent episode of diarrhea (within 2 weeks of survey) using DHSs for 2007-2010 (1st Period), and 2013-2016 (2nd Period). Weighted proportions of ORS were obtained and multivariable- design-adjusted logistic regression analysis was used to obtain Odds Ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and weighted proportions of ORS coverage. RESULTS: Crude ORS coverage increased from 21.0% (95% CI: 17.4-24.9) in 1st Period to 40.5% (36.5-44.6) in 2nd Period in Zimbabwe; increased from 60.8% (56.1-65.3) to 64.7% (61.8-67.5) in Zambia; and decreased from 72.3% (68.4-75.9) to 64.6% (60.9-68.1) in Malawi. The rates of change in coverage among provinces in Zimbabwe ranged from 10.3% over the three cycles (approximately 10 years) in Midlands to 44.2% in Matabeleland South; in Zambia from - 9.5% in Eastern Province to 24.4% in Luapula; and in Malawi from - 16.5% in the Northern Province to - 3.2% in Southern Province. The aORs for ORS use was 3.95(2.66-5.86) for Zimbabwe, 2.83 (2.35-3.40) for Zambia, and, 0.71(0.59-0.87) for Malawi. CONCLUSION: ORS coverage increased in Zimbabwe, stagnated in Zambia, but declined in Malawi. Monitoring national and province-level trends of ORS use illuminates geographic inequalities and helps identify priority areas for targeting resource allocation.. Provision of safe drinking-water, adequate sanitation and hygiene will help reduce the causes and the incidence of diarrhea. Health policies to strengthen access to appropriate treatments such as vaccines for rotavirus and cholera and promoting use of ORS to reduce the burden of diarrhea should be developed and implemented.

Burden and changes in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Southern Africa Development Community Countries, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: The 16 Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) countries remain the epicentre of the HIV/AIDS epidemic with the largest number of people living with HIV/AIDS. Anti-retroviral treatment (ART) has improved survival and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV, but the disease remains a serious cause of mortality. We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of HIV/AIDS burden for the 16 SADC countries using secondary data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factor (GBD) Study. METHODS: The GBD study is a systematic, scientific effort by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to quantify the comparative magnitude of health loss due to diseases, injuries, and risk factors by age, sex, and geographies for specific points in time. We analyzed the following outcomes: mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HIV/AIDS for SADC. Input data for GBD was extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service utilisation, disease notifications, and other sources. Country- and cause-specific HIV/AIDS-related death rates were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR). Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age-group to calculate YLLs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases to calculate YLDs. Crude and age-adjusted rates per 100,000 population and changes between 1990 and 2017 were determined for each country. RESULTS: In 2017, HIV/AIDS caused 336,175 deaths overall in SADC countries, and more than 20 million DALYs. This corresponds to a 3-fold increase from 113,631 deaths (6,915,170 DALYs) in 1990. The five leading countries with the proportion of deaths attributable to HIV/AIDS in 2017 were Botswana at the top with 28.7% (95% UI; 23.7-35.2), followed by South Africa 28.5% (25.8-31.6), Lesotho, 25.1% (21.2-30.4), eSwatini 24.8% (21.3-28.6), and Mozambique 24.2% (20.6-29.3). The five countries had relative attributable deaths that were at least 14 times greater than the global burden of 1.7% (1.6-1.8). Similar patterns were observed with YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs. Comoros, Seychelles and Mauritius were on the lower end, with attributable proportions less than 1%, below the global proportion. CONCLUSIONS: Great progress in reducing HIV/AIDS burden has been achieved since the peak but more needs to be done. The post-2005 decline is attributed to PMTCT of HIV, resources provided through the US President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), and behavioural change. The five countries with the highest burden of HIV/AIDS as measured by proportion of death attributed to HIV/AIDS and age-standardized mortaility rate were Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho, eSwatini, and Mozambique. SADC countries should cooperate, work with donors, and embrace the UN Fast-Track approach, which calls for frontloading investment from domestic or other sources to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS. Robust tracking, testing, and early treatment are required, as well as refinement of individual treatment strategies for transient individuals in the region.

Duration and stability of metabolically healthy obesity over 30 years.

BACKGROUND: Obese adults who are free from metabolic risk factors may develop risk factors over time. Our objective was to characterize development of obesity and duration of metabolically healthy obese (MHO) over 30 years. METHODS: Participants in CARDIA who developed obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) at follow-up exams during years 7, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 were analyzed. MHO was defined as obese and having 0 or 1 risk factor: ≥SBP/DBP 130/85 mmHg; fasting glucose ≥100 mg/dL/5.55 mmol/L; fasting triglycerides (≥150 mg/dL/1.69 mmol/L); and HDL-C (men <40 mg/dL/1.036 mmol/L, women <50 mg/dL/1.295 mmol/L) or on any medication(s) for these conditions. MHO duration (years) and obesity duration (years) were estimated for each subsequent time-point; and an overall cumulative duration was also calculated over available follow-up. MHO duration (%) was approximated as MHO duration ÷ obesity duration. Stable MHO was defined as 100% MHO duration over follow-up, while transient MHO was defined as <1-99%. Chi-squared tests were used to compare proportions by sex and race across obesity phenotypes. Multivariable-adjusted ANCOVA, adjusting for baseline BMI, age, race, and sex, was used to analyze obesity duration in all individuals who developed obesity, and also compare MHO duration (%) across race and sex in transient MHO individuals. RESULTS: Of the 987 eligible participants who developed obesity, 51% were African American (AA), 56% were women. Higher percentages of AA were classified as transient MHO, and higher proportions of females were MHO (both p < 0.0001). Obesity duration (years) was higher in transient MHO compared with stable MHO (mean difference: 6.2 ± 0.5 years, p < 0.0001). Of those with transient MHO, African Americans (51.4 ± 1.6%) were more likely to have longer MHO duration compared to Caucasians (44.4 ± 1.9%, p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: MHO status can be a transient phenotype which differs by sex and race. Future studies are needed to explore modifiable lifestyle/behavioral predictors associated with longer MHO duration.

Association of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors With Venous Thromboembolism: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: Much controversy surrounds the association of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors with venous thromboembolism (VTE). METHODS: We performed an individual level random-effect meta-analysis including 9 prospective studies with measured baseline cardiovascular disease risk factors and validated VTE events. Definitions were harmonized across studies. Traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were modeled categorically and continuously using restricted cubic splines. Estimates were obtained for overall VTE, provoked VTE (ie, VTE occurring in the presence of 1 or more established VTE risk factors), and unprovoked VTE, pulmonary embolism, and deep-vein thrombosis. RESULTS: The studies included 244 865 participants with 4910 VTE events occurring during a mean follow-up of 4.7 to 19.7 years per study. Age, sex, and body mass index-adjusted hazard ratios for overall VTE were 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89-1.07) for hypertension, 0.97 (95% CI: 0.88-1.08) for hyperlipidemia, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.89-1.15) for diabetes mellitus, and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08-1.32) for current smoking. After full adjustment, these estimates were numerically similar. When modeled continuously, an inverse association was observed for systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio=0.79 [95% CI: 0.68-0.92] at systolic blood pressure 160 vs 110 mm Hg) but not for diastolic blood pressure or lipid measures with VTE. An important finding from VTE subtype analyses was that cigarette smoking was associated with provoked but not unprovoked VTE. Fully adjusted hazard ratios for the associations of current smoking with provoked and unprovoked VTE were 1.36 (95% CI: 1.22-1.52) and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.90-1.29), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Except for the association between cigarette smoking and provoked VTE, which is potentially mediated through comorbid conditions such as cancer, the modifiable traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors are not associated with increased VTE risk. Higher systolic blood pressure showed an inverse association with VTE.

Screening for cervical cancer among HIV-positive and HIV-negative women in Cameroon using simultaneous co-testing with careHPV DNA testing and visual inspection enhanced by digital cervicography: Findings of initial screening and one-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s cervical cancer screening guidelines for limited-resource settings recommend sequential screening followed by same-day treatment under a "screen-and-treat" approach. We aimed to (1) assess feasibility and clinical outcomes of screening HIV-positive and HIV-negative Cameroonian women by pairing visual inspection with acetic acid and Lugol's iodine enhanced by digital cervicography (VIA/VILI-DC) with careHPV, a high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) nucleic acid test designed for low-resource settings; and (2) determine persistence of HR-HPV infection after one-year follow-up to inform optimal screening, treatment, and follow-up algorithms. METHODS: We co-tested 913 previously unscreened women aged ≥30years and applied WHO-recommended treatment for all VIA/VILI-DC-positive women. Baseline prevalence of HR-HPV and HIV were 24% and 42%, respectively. RESULTS: On initial screen, 44 (5%) women were VIA/VILI-DC-positive, of whom 22 had HR-HPV infection, indicating 50% of women screened false-positive and would have been triaged for unnecessary same-day treatment. VIA/VILI-DC-positive women with HIV infection were three times more likely to be HR-HPV-positive than HIV-negative women (65% vs. 20%). All women positive for either VIA/VILI-DC or HR-HPV (n=245) were invited for repeat co-testing after one year, of which 136 (56%) returned for follow-up. Of 122 women who were HR-HPV-positive on initial screen, 60 (49%) re-tested negative, of whom 6 had received treatment after initial screen, indicating that 44% of initially HR-HPV-positive women spontaneously cleared infection after one year without treatment. Women with HIV were more likely to remain HR-HPV-positive on follow-up than HIV-negative women (61% vs. 22%, p<0.001). Treatment was offered to all VIA/VILI-DC positive women on initial screen, and to all women screening VIA/VILI-DC or HR-HPV positive on follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: We found careHPV co-testing with VIA/VILI-DC to be feasible and valuable in identifying false-positives, but careHPV screening-to-result time was too long to inform same-day treatment.

Cost-effectiveness of the non-laboratory based Framingham algorithm in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: A simulated analysis of a cohort of African American adults.

The non-lab Framingham algorithm, which substitute body mass index for lipids in the laboratory based (lab-based) Framingham algorithm, has been validated among African Americans (AAs). However, its cost-effectiveness and economic tradeoffs have not been evaluated. This study examines the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of two cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention programs guided by the non-lab versus lab-based Framingham algorithm. We simulated the World Health Organization CVD prevention guidelines on a cohort of 2690 AA participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort. Costs were estimated using Medicare fee schedules (diagnostic tests, drugs & visits), Bureau of Labor Statistics (RN wages), and estimates for managing incident CVD events. Outcomes were assumed to be true positive cases detected at a data driven treatment threshold. Both algorithms had the best balance of sensitivity/specificity at the moderate risk threshold (>10% risk). Over 12years, 82% and 77% of 401 incident CVD events were accurately predicted via the non-lab and lab-based Framingham algorithms, respectively. There were 20 fewer false negative cases in the non-lab approach translating into over $900,000 in savings over 12years. The ICER was -$57,153 for every extra CVD event prevented when using the non-lab algorithm. The approach guided by the non-lab Framingham strategy dominated the lab-based approach with respect to both costs and predictive ability. Consequently, the non-lab Framingham algorithm could potentially provide a highly effective screening tool at lower cost to address the high burden of CVD especially among AA and in resource-constrained settings where lab tests are unavailable.

Global Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes of Reduced GFR.

The burden of premature death and health loss from ESRD is well described. Less is known regarding the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to reduced GFR. We estimated the prevalence of reduced GFR categories 3, 4, and 5 (not on RRT) for 188 countries at six time points from 1990 to 2013. Relative risks of cardiovascular outcomes by three categories of reduced GFR were calculated by pooled random effects meta-analysis. Results are presented as deaths for outcomes of cardiovascular disease and ESRD and as disability-adjusted life years for outcomes of cardiovascular disease, GFR categories 3, 4, and 5, and ESRD. In 2013, reduced GFR was associated with 4% of deaths worldwide, or 2.2 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 2.0 to 2.4 million). More than half of these attributable deaths were cardiovascular deaths (1.2 million; 95% UI, 1.1 to 1.4 million), whereas 0.96 million (95% UI, 0.81 to 1.0 million) were ESRD-related deaths. Compared with metabolic risk factors, reduced GFR ranked below high systolic BP, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose, and similarly with high total cholesterol as a risk factor for disability-adjusted life years in both developed and developing world regions. In conclusion, by 2013, cardiovascular deaths attributed to reduced GFR outnumbered ESRD deaths throughout the world. Studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of early detection of CKD and treatment to decrease these deaths.

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

50 year trends in atrial fibrillation prevalence, incidence, risk factors, and mortality in the Framingham Heart Study: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. We aimed to provide such data through analysis of the Framingham cohort over 50 years. METHODS: We investigated trends in incidence, prevalence, and risk factors for atrial fibrillation and its association with stroke and mortality after onset in 9511 participants enrolled in the Framingham Heart Study between 1958 and 2007. We analysed trends within 10 year groups (1958-67, 1968-77, 1978-87, 1988-97, and 1998-2007), stratified by sex. FINDINGS: During 50 years of observation (202,417 person-years), 1544 cases of new-onset atrial fibrillation occurred (of whom 723 [47%] were women). Between 1958-67 and 1998-2007, age-adjusted prevalence of atrial fibrillation quadrupled from 20·4 to 96·2 cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 13·7 to 49·4 cases per 1000 person-years in women; age-adjusted incidence increased from 3·7 to 13·4 new cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 2·5 to 8·6 new cases per 1000 person-years in women (ptrend<0·0001 for all comparisons). For atrial fibrillation diagnosed by electrocardiograph (ECG) during routine Framingham examinations, age-adjusted prevalence per 1000 person-years increased (12·6 in 1958-67 to 25·7 in 1998-2007 in men, ptrend=0·0007; 8·1 to 11·8 in women, ptrend=0·009). However, age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation by Framingham Heart Study ECGs did not change significantly with time. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 74% (95% CI 50-86%) decrease in stroke (hazards ratio [HR] 3·77, 95% CI 1·98-7·20 in 1958-1967 compared with 1998-2007; ptrend=0·0001) and a 25% (95% CI -3-46%) decrease in mortality (HR 1·34, 95% CI 0·97-1·86 in 1958-1967 compared with 1998-2007; ptrend=0·003) in 20 years following atrial fibrillation onset. INTERPRETATION: Trends of increased incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the community were probably partly due to enhanced surveillance. Measures are needed to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation, through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programmes and risk factor-specific prevention. FUNDING: NIH, NHLBI, NINDS, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Impact of age, sex, and indexation method on MR left ventricular reference values in the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort.

PURPOSE: To determine normative values for left ventricular (LV) volumes, mass, concentricity, and ejection fraction (EF) and investigate associations between sex, age, and body size with LV parameters in community-dwelling adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In all, 1794 Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort members underwent LV short-axis oriented, contiguous multislice cine steady-state free precession MR of the left ventricle; from these a healthy referent group (n = 852, 61 ± 9 years, 40% men) free of clinical cardiac disease and hypertension (SBP < 140, DBP < 90 mmHg, never used antihypertensive medication ≥30 years prior to scanning) was identified. Referent participants were stratified by sex and age group (≤55, 56-65, >65 years); LV parameters were indexed to measures of body size. RESULTS: Men have greater LV volumes and mass than women both before and after indexation to height, powers of height, and body surface area (P < 0.01 all), but indexation to fat-free mass yielded greater LV volume and mass in women. In both sexes, LV volumes and mass decrease with advancing age, although indexation attenuates this association. LVEF is greater in women than men (68 ± 5% vs. 66 ± 5%, P < 0.01) and increases with age in both sexes (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Among nonhypertensive adults free of cardiac disease, men have greater LV volumes and mass with sex differences generally persisting after indexation to body size. LV volumes and mass tend to decrease with greater age in both sexes. Female sex and advanced age were both associated with greater LVEF. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2015;41:1038-1045. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk factor differences in calcified and noncalcified aortic plaque: the Framingham Heart Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and risk factor (RF) correlates of aortic plaque (AP) detected by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), which mainly shows noncalcified plaques, and by noncontrast computed tomography (CT), which best depicts calcified plaques, in community-dwelling adults. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 1016 Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort members (64 ± 9 years; 474 men) underwent CMR and CT of the aorta. Potential RFs for AP (age; sex; body mass index; blood pressure; low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; fasting glucose; C-reactive protein; prevalent hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking; use of antihypertensive, diabetes mellitus, or lipid-lowering drugs) were compared between participants, with zero versus nonzero AP by CMR and by CT. Candidate RFs attaining P<0.05 for difference with either imaging modality were entered into multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, and other RFs. Odds ratios were calculated for modality-specific prevalence of AP. Associations between RFs and continuous measures of AP were assessed using Tobit regression. Prevalence of CMR and CT AP was 49% and 82%, respectively. AP burdens by CMR and CT were correlated, r=0.28, P<0.0001. Increasing age and smoking were associated with prevalent AP by both CMR and CT. Additionally, prevalent AP by CMR was associated with female sex and fasting glucose and prevalent AP by CT with hypertension treatment and adverse lipid profile. CONCLUSIONS: AP by CMR and CT are both associated with smoking and increasing age, but other RFs differ between calcified and noncalcified AP. The relative predictive value of AP detected by CMR versus by CT for incident cardiovascular events remains to be determined.

Sexual communication intervention for African American mothers & daughters.

BACKGROUND: African American girls ages 13-19 comprised nearly 3 out of 4 new cases of HIV in 2009. The goal of this study was to deliver a theoretically-driven intervention to test the feasibility for recruitment and retention of mother-daughter dyads. METHODS: Twenty mother-daughter dyads were recruited from a community health center between February-April 2014. Comparisons were made between pre- and post-intervention scores using percent change. RESULTS: Twelve dyads (60%) completed the intervention. There were no demographic differences between completers and noncompleters. Notable post-intervention percent increases in scores were observed in the domains: Sexual knowledge (15%), confidence to talk (23.2%); and openness of sexual communication (26.4%). CONCLUSION: Our small-sized study showed promise in the intervention. Increasing sexual communication between African American mothers and daughters is likely to be sustainable over time and across relationships, and thus have a greater impact on HIV-prevention behaviors later in life.

Outcomes reported by the Vascular Quality Initiative and the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program are not comparable.

OBJECTIVE: The Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) and National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) have emerged as the primary vascular surgery quality measurement tools with the purpose of evaluating perioperative outcomes and assessing hospital and physician quality. VQI uses self-reporting to capture all index vascular procedures during the inpatient period. NSQIP employs nurse abstractors to capture a sample of procedures and covers 30-day events. We hypothesize that patients undergoing lower extremity bypass (LEB) will exhibit high concordance for preoperative variables and low concordance for postoperative variables between these data sets. METHODS: All patients undergoing LEB for peripheral arterial disease at the University of Massachusetts captured in both VQI and NSQIP databases were reviewed (2007-2012). Concordance between categorical variables was assessed by κ correlation coefficient. All postoperative variables were compared during equivalent inpatient stay. Events between discharge and 30 days postoperatively were tabulated with use of the NSQIP data set. RESULTS: We identified 240 patients undergoing LEB captured in both VQI and NSQIP. Comparison of this identical patient cohort between VQI and NSQIP revealed a moderate to strong agreement for most preoperative variables except for congestive heart failure (κ = 0.14) and hypertension (κ = 0.35), which showed poor agreement. Concordance for inpatient postoperative variables was high for mortality (κ = 1.0) and myocardial infarction (κ = 0.86) but moderate for pulmonary complications (κ = 0.57) and poor for unplanned return to the operating room (κ = 0.41), wound infection (κ = -0.01), and change in renal function (κ = -0.01). A majority of postoperative events (71%) occurred between discharge and 30 days postoperatively, with a significantly higher incidence of wound infections in the outpatient setting (4.2% vs 95.8%; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: VQI and NSQIP demonstrate substantial concordance for most preoperative variables and poor concordance for most postoperative variables, even at identical collection periods. This discordance is a result of differences in data collection methods and variable definitions. On the basis of these findings, VQI and NSQIP data sets cannot be used to directly compare risk-adjusted patient outcomes between institutions.

CMR reference values for left ventricular volumes, mass, and ejection fraction using computer-aided analysis: the Framingham Heart Study.

PURPOSE: To determine sex-specific reference values for left ventricular (LV) volumes, mass, and ejection fraction (EF) in healthy adults using computer-aided analysis and to examine the effect of age on LV parameters. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We examined data from 1494 members of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort, obtained using short-axis stack cine SSFP CMR, identified a healthy reference group (without cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or LV wall motion abnormality) and determined sex-specific upper 95th percentile thresholds for LV volumes and mass, and lower 5th percentile thresholds for EF using computer-assisted border detection. In secondary analyses, we stratified participants by age-decade and tested for linear trend across age groups. RESULTS: The reference group comprised 685 adults (423F; 61 ± 9 years). Men had greater LV volumes and mass, before and after indexation to common measures of body size (all P = 0.001). Women had greater EF (73 ± 6 versus 71 ± 6%; P = 0.0002). LV volumes decreased with greater age in both sexes, even after indexation. Indexed LV mass did not vary with age. LV EF and concentricity increased with greater age in both sexes. CONCLUSION: We present CMR-derived LV reference values. There are significant age and sex differences in LV volumes, EF, and geometry, whereas mass differs between sexes but not age groups.

Trends in the burden of most common obesity-related cancers in 16 Southern Africa development community countries, 1990-2019. Findings from the global burden of disease study.

Background: Obesity-related cancers in the 16 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries is quite prominent. The changes and time trends of the burden of obesity-related cancers in developing countries like SADC remain largely unknown. A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to assess the burden of obesity-related cancers, (liver, esophageal, breast, prostate, colon/rectal, leukemia, ovarian, uterine, pancreatic, kidney, gallbladder/biliary tract, and thyroid cancers) in SADC countries. Methods: Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study was used. Deaths extracted from vital registration, verbal autopsies and ICD codes. Cancer-type, mortality and prevalence per 100,000 population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and Spatio-Temporal Gaussian process with mixed effects regression models. Annual rates of change (AROCs) between 1990 and 2019 and the corresponding UIs were calculated. Results: The top age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 in 2019 for males were leukemia, 20.1(14.4-26.4), esophageal cancer, 15.1 (11.2-19.1), and colon and rectal cancer, 10.3 (8.6-12.6). For females, breast cancer, 20.6 (16.6-25.0), leukemia, 17.1 (11.4-23.7), and esophageal cancer, 8.3 (5.5-10.7), had the leading mortality rates. For males, AROC substantial (p < 0.05) increase for kidney cancer for 11 of the countries (AROC from 0.41% to 1.24%), colon cancer for eight of the countries (from 0.39% to 0.92%), and pancreatic cancer for seven countries (from 0.26% to 1.01%). In females, AROC showed substantial increase for pancreatic cancer for 13 of the countries from (0.34%-1.67%), nine countries for kidney cancer (from 0.27% to 1.02%), seven countries each for breast cancer (0.35%-1.13%), and ovarian cancer (from 0.33% to 1.21%). Conclusions: There is need for location-specific and culturally appropriate strategies for better nutrition and weight control, and improved screening for all cancers. Health promotion messaging should target kidney, colon, pancreatic, and breast cancers and encourage clinically tested methods of reducing BMI such as increasing personal physical activity and adoption of effective dietary regimes.