Local area population projections dataset for Australia.

A new dataset of population projections for local areas of Australia is described. The areas comprise SA3 areas of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard, which mostly range in population between 30,000 and 130,000. The projections are launched from the 2020 Estimated Resident Populations published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and extend out to 2035. They are available by sex and five year age group up to 80-84 with 85+ as the final age group and in five year projection intervals. The projections were prepared using the synthetic migration cohort-component model, a new model for population projections which requires much less input data than conventional projection models, and therefore involves much lower costs and production time. Despite this, a recent evaluation demonstrated respectable forecast accuracy, and greater accuracy than equivalent simple projection models producing populations by age and sex. The age-sex projections are constrained to independent age-sex national projections and local area projections of total populations. The dataset consists of local area projections for the whole of the country which is consistent in methods, input data, and projection outputs due to the use of one model. This is rare in Australia because local area projections are most commonly prepared by individual State/Territory Governments using different methods, data sources, projection assumptions (which can be influenced by State/Territory population policies), and time periods. These nationally consistent projection data should be useful for a wide range of local area planning, policy, and research purposes, such as childcare demand, school enrolments, power and water usage, aged care provision, store and business site selection, living arrangements and household projections, labour force projections, and transport modelling.

Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs.

Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major investment decisions. Yet, the toolbox of small area population forecasting methods and techniques is modest relative to that for national and large subnational regional forecasting. In this paper, we assess the current state of small area population forecasting, and suggest areas for further research. The paper provides a review of the literature on small area population forecasting methods published over the period 2001-2020. The key themes covered by the review are extrapolative and comparative methods, simplified cohort-component methods, model averaging and combining, incorporating socioeconomic variables and spatial relationships, 'downscaling' and disaggregation approaches, linking population with housing, estimating and projecting small area component input data, microsimulation, machine learning, and forecast uncertainty. Several avenues for further research are then suggested, including more work on model averaging and combining, developing new forecasting methods for situations which current models cannot handle, quantifying uncertainty, exploring methodologies such as machine learning and spatial statistics, creating user-friendly tools for practitioners, and understanding more about how forecasts are used. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-021-09671-6.

The effect of simultaneous text on the recall of noise-degraded speech.

Written and spoken language utilize the same processing system, enabling text to modulate speech processing. We investigated how simultaneously presented text affected speech recall in babble noise using a retrospective recall task. Participants were presented with text-speech sentence pairs in multitalker babble noise and then prompted to recall what they heard or what they read. In Experiment 1, sentence pairs were either congruent or incongruent and they were presented in silence or at 1 of 4 noise levels. Audio and Visual control groups were also tested with sentences presented in only 1 modality. Congruent text facilitated accurate recall of degraded speech; incongruent text had no effect. Text and speech were seldom confused for each other. A consideration of the effects of the language background found that monolingual English speakers outperformed early multilinguals at recalling degraded speech; however the effects of text on speech processing were analogous. Experiment 2 considered if the benefit provided by matching text was maintained when the congruency of the text and speech becomes more ambiguous because of the addition of partially mismatching text-speech sentence pairs that differed only on their final keyword and because of the use of low signal-to-noise ratios. The experiment focused on monolingual English speakers; the results showed that even though participants commonly confused text-for-speech during incongruent text-speech pairings, these confusions could not fully account for the benefit provided by matching text. Thus, we uniquely demonstrate that congruent text benefits the recall of noise-degraded speech. (PsycINFO Database Record

Indication of abnormal peripheral sensory processing of rotational stimulation in ADHD.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) has been associated with motor abnormalities. Given the importance of the vestibular system in motor control, the investigation of the peripheral vestibular response is a promising area of ADHD research, which could lead to an improved understanding and management of the disorder. This study aimed to investigate the evoked peripheral vestibular response to rotational stimuli in ADHD affected adults, using Electrovestibulography (EVestG). Data was collected from 6 ADHD affected adults (2 males, 4 females) and contrasted with that of a Control group comprised of 30 individuals (10 males, 20 females). Raw data was 120 Hz high pass filtered and analyzed using the Neural Event Extraction Routine to identify local field potentials, which represent the summed activity of the components of the inner ear. The inter field potential intervals (IFPI) were calculated as the time intervals between field potentials. Analysis of the IFPI indicated that the ADHD group exhibited significantly shorter periods between field potentials generated in the right ear during left rotational acceleration than Controls (unpaired, two-tailed Student's t-test assuming unequal variance, p<0.05). However there was no significant difference between groups for left ear signal during right rotational acceleration. This preliminary study provides an indication as to the possibility of lateralized, abnormal inner ear responses to kinematic stimuli in the ADHD affected population. However, further studies are required to validate and elucidate this data.