A phase II randomised, placebo-controlled trial of low dose (metronomic) cyclophosphamide and nintedanib (BIBF1120) in advanced ovarian, fallopian tube or primary peritoneal cancer.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the safety and efficacy of a combination of the oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor, nintedanib (BIBF 1120) with oral cyclophosphamide in patients with relapsed ovarian cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with relapsed ovarian, fallopian tube or primary peritoneal cancer received oral cyclophosphamide (100 mg o.d.) and were randomised (1,1) to also have either oral nintedanib or placebo. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Secondary endpoints included progression free survival (PFS), response rate, toxicity, and quality of life. RESULTS: 117 patients were randomised, 3 did not start trial treatment, median age 64 years. Forty-five (39%) had received ≥5 lines chemotherapy. 30% had received prior bevacizumab. The median OS was 6.8 (nintedanib) versus 6.4 (placebo) months (hazard ratio 1.08; 95% confidence interval 0.72-1.62; P = 0.72). The 6-month PFS rate was 29.6% versus 22.8% (P = 0.57). Grade 3/4 adverse events occurred in 64% (nintedanib) versus 54% (placebo) of patients (P = 0.28); the most frequent G3/4 toxicities were lymphopenia (18.6% nintedanib versus 16.4% placebo), diarrhoea (13.6% versus 0%), neutropenia (11.9% versus 0%), fatigue (10.2% versus 9.1%), and vomiting (10.2% versus 7.3%). Patients who had received prior bevacizumab treatment had 52 days less time on treatment (P < 0.01). 26 patients (23%) took oral cyclophosphamide for ≥6 months. There were no differences in quality of life between treatment arms. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest reported cohort of patients with relapsed ovarian cancer treated with oral cyclophosphamide. Nintedanib did not improve outcomes when added to oral cyclophosphamide. Although not significant, more patients than expected remained on treatment for ≥6 months. This may reflect a higher proportion of patients with more indolent disease or the higher dose of cyclophosphamide used. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.govNCT01610869.

Investigating the heterogeneity of alkylating agents' efficacy and toxicity between sexes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials comparing cyclophosphamide and ifosfamide (MAIAGE study).

BACKGROUND: A marginal interaction between sex and the type of alkylating agent was observed for event-free survival in the Euro-EWING99-R1 randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing cyclophosphamide and ifosfamide in Ewing sarcoma. To further evaluate this interaction, we performed an individual patient data meta-analysis of RCTs assessing cyclophosphamide versus ifosfamide in any type of cancer. METHODS: A literature search produced two more eligible RCTs (EICESS92 and IRS-IV). The endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS, main endpoint) and overall survival (OS). The hazard ratios (HRs) of the treatment-by-sex interaction and their 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were assessed using stratified multivariable Cox models. Heterogeneity of the interaction across age categories and trials was explored. We also assessed this interaction for severe acute toxicity using logistic models. RESULTS: The meta-analysis comprised 1,528 pediatric and young adult sarcoma patients from three RCTs: Euro-EWING99-R1 (n = 856), EICESS92 (n = 155), and IRS-IV (n = 517). There were 224 PFS events in Euro-EWING99-R1 and 200 in the validation set (EICESS92 + IRS-IV), and 171 and 154 deaths in each dataset, respectively. The estimated treatment-by-sex interaction for PFS in Euro-EWING99-R1 (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.00-3.00) was not replicated in the validation set (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.55-1.72), without heterogeneity across trials (P = 0.62). In the pooled analysis, the treatment-by-sex interaction was not significant (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 0.89-1.95, P = 0.17), without heterogeneity across age categories (P = 0.88) and trials (P = 0.36). Similar results were observed for OS. No significant treatment-by-sex interaction was observed for leucopenia/neutropenia (P = 0.45), infection (P = 0.64), or renal toxicity (P = 0.20). CONCLUSION: Our meta-analysis did not confirm the hypothesis of a treatment-by-sex interaction on efficacy or toxicity outcomes.

Lifestyle in Multiple Myeloma - a longitudinal cohort study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Deterioration in bone health is one of the presenting symptoms of Multiple Myeloma (MM), a cancer of plasma cells. As a consequence of this condition, patients suffer bone pain and bone damage and report cancer-related fatigue, resulting in deterioration in their quality of life. Evidence in patients with solid tumours shows promise for the positive effects of physical activity on quality of life. However, in the case of patients with MM a better understanding of the association between physical fitness and quality of life factors is still required. Therefore, this cohort study aims to objectively and longitudinally assess activity and fitness levels in patients with MM in order to explore their role in bone health, fatigue and quality of life for this patient population. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is a prospective cohort study of MM patients in remission to assess physical activity, fatigue and bone health. Clinical markers of health, self-reported measures of psychological and physical well-being, and lifestyle behaviours are assessed at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months. At each time point, patients complete cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) along with a series of objective tests to assess physical fitness (eg accelerometry) and a number of self-report measures. A complementary qualitative study will be carried out in order to explore patients' desire for lifestyle advice and when in their cancer journey they deem such advice to be useful. DISCUSSION: This study will be the first to prospectively and longitudinally explore associations between physical fitness and well-being, bone health, and fatigue (along with a number of other physical and clinical outcomes) in a cohort of patients with MM with the use of objective measures. The findings will also help to identify time points within the MM pathway at which physical activity interventions may be introduced for maximum benefit.

A phase II study of weekly neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by radical chemoradiation for locally advanced cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the feasibility of dose-dense neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) with paclitaxel and carboplatin before radical chemoradiation (CRT) and assessed the response rate to such a regimen. METHODS: CxII is a single-arm phase II trial of 46 patients, with locally advanced cervical cancer (stage Ib2-IVa). Patients received dose-dense carboplatin (AUC2) and paclitaxel (80 mg m⁻²) weekly for six cycles followed by CRT (40 mg m⁻² of weekly cisplatin, 50.4 Gy, 28 fractions plus brachytherapy). The primary end point was response rate 12 weeks post-CRT. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were: median age at diagnosis 43 years; 72% squamous, 22% adenocarcinoma and 7% adenosquamous histologies; FIGO stage IB2 (11%), II (50%), III (33%), IV (7%). Complete or partial response rate was 70% (95% CI: 54-82) post-NACT and 85% (95% CI: 71-94) post-CRT. The median follow-up was 39.1 months. Overall and progression-free survivals at 3 years were 67% (95% CI: 51-79) and 68% (95% CI: 51-79), respectively. Grade 3/4 toxicities were 20% during NACT (11% haematological, 9% non-haematological) and 52% during CRT (haematological: 41%, non-haematological: 22%). CONCLUSION: A good response rate is achieved by dose-dense weekly NACT with carboplatin and paclitaxel followed by radical CRT. This treatment regimen is feasible as evidenced by the acceptable toxicity of NACT and by the high compliance to radiotherapy (98%).

A simple prognostic scoring system for patients receiving transarterial embolisation for hepatocellular cancer.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis for patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) undergoing transarterial therapy (TACE/TAE) is variable. METHODS: We carried out Cox regression analysis of prognostic factors using a training dataset of 114 patients treated with TACE/TAE. A simple prognostic score (PS) was developed, validated using an independent dataset of 167 patients and compared with Child-Pugh, CLIP, Okuda, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and MELD. RESULTS: Low albumin, high bilirubin or α-fetoprotein (AFP) and large tumour size were associated with a two- to threefold increase in the risk of death. Patients were assigned one point if albumin <36 g/dl, bilirubin >17 µmol/l, AFP >400 ng/ml or size of dominant tumour >7 cm. The Hepatoma arterial-embolisation prognostic (HAP) score was calculated by summing these points. Patients were divided into four risk groups based on their HAP scores; HAP A, B, C and D (scores 0, 1, 2 and >2, respectively). The median survival for the groups A, B, C and D was 27.6, 18.5, 9.0 and 3.6 months, respectively. The HAP score validated well with the independent dataset and performed better than other scoring systems in differentiating high- and low-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: The HAP score predicts outcomes in patients with HCC undergoing TACE/TAE and may help guide treatment selection, allow stratification in clinical trials and facilitate meaningful comparisons across reported series.

Smaller sample sizes for phase II trials based on exact tests with actual error rates by trading-off their nominal levels of significance and power.

BACKGROUND: Sample sizes for single-stage phase II clinical trials in the literature are often based on exact (binomial) tests with levels of significance (alpha (α) <5% and power >80%). This is because there is not always a sample size where α and power are exactly equal to 5% and 80%, respectively. Consequently, the opportunity to trade-off small amounts of α and power for savings in sample sizes may be lost. METHODS: Sample-size tables are presented for single-stage phase II trials based on exact tests with actual levels of significance and power. Trade-off in small amounts of α and power allows the researcher to select from several possible designs with potentially smaller sample sizes compared with existing approaches. We provide SAS macro coding and an R function, which for a given treatment difference, allow researchers to examine all possible sample sizes for specified differences are provided. RESULTS: In a single-arm study with P(0) (standard treatment)=10% and P(1) (new treatment)=20%, and specified α=5% and power=80%, the A'Hern approach yields n=78 (exact α=4.53%, power=80.81%). However, by relaxing α to 5.67% and power to 77.7%, a sample size of 65 can be used (a saving of 13 patients). INTERPRETATION: The approach we describe is especially useful for trials in rare disorders, or for proof-of-concept studies, where it is important to minimise the trial duration and financial costs, particularly in single-arm cancer trials commonly associated with expensive treatment options.

Stopping clinical trials early for futility: retrospective analysis of several randomised clinical studies.

BACKGROUND: Many clinical trials show no overall benefit. We examined futility analyses applied to trials with different effect sizes. METHODS: Ten randomised cancer trials were retrospectively analysed; target sample size reached in all. The hazard ratio indicated no overall benefit (n=5), or moderate (n=4) or large (n=1) treatment effects. Futility analyses were applied after 25, 50 and 75% of events were observed, or patients were recruited. Outcomes were conditional power (CP), and time and cost savings. RESULTS: Futility analyses could stop some trials with no benefit, but not all. After observing 50% of the target number of events, 3 out of 5 trials with no benefit could be stopped early (low CP ≤ 15%). Trial duration for two studies could be reduced by 4-24 months, saving £44 000-231 000, but the third had already stopped recruiting, hence no savings were made. However, of concern was that 2 of the 4 trials with moderate treatment effects could be stopped early at some point, although they eventually showed worthwhile benefits. CONCLUSIONS: Careful application of futility can lead to future patients in a trial not being given an ineffective treatment, and should therefore be used more often. A secondary consideration is that it could shorten trial duration and reduce costs. However, studies with modest treatment effects could be inappropriately stopped early. Unless there is very good evidence for futility, it is often best to continue to the planned end.

Chemotherapy with 5-fluorouracil, cisplatin and streptozocin for neuroendocrine tumours.

BACKGROUND: The role of chemotherapy for neuroendocrine tumours remains controversial and there is no standard regimen. METHOD: We report the outcome for a consecutive series of chemonaive patients with metastatic or locally advanced neuroendocrine tumours treated with a combination of 5-fluorouracil (500 mg m(-2)), cisplatin (70 mg m(-2)) and streptozocin (1000 mg m(-2)) (FCiSt) administered three weekly for up to six cycles. Patients were assessed for radiological response, toxicity and survival. RESULTS: In the 79 patients assessable for response, treatment with FCiSt was associated with an overall response rate of 33% (38% for pancreatic primary sites and 25% for non-pancreatic primary sites). Stable disease occurred in a further 51%, with progression in 16%. The median time to progression was 9.1 months and median overall survival was 31.5 months. The most common grade 3-4 toxicity was neutropaenia (28% patients) but grade 3-4 infection was rare (7%). The most frequent non-haematological grade 3-4 toxicity was nausea and vomiting (17%). Prognostic factors included Ki-67, mitotic index, grade and chromogranin A, whereas response to chemotherapy was predicted by mitotic index, grade and alpha-fetoprotein. CONCLUSIONS: FCiSt is an effective regimen for neuroendocrine tumours with an acceptable toxicity profile. Grade and mitotic index are the best predictors of response.

The influence of sex and histology on outcomes in non-small-cell lung cancer: a pooled analysis of five randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: Some non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) surgical series have indicated that the positive prognostic effect of female sex is limited to patients with adenocarcinoma. We carried out a retrospective analysis to investigate the role of sex and histology on efficacy, toxicity, and dose delivery after chemotherapy. PATIENT AND METHODS: Individual patient data were pooled from five randomized, phase III, advanced NSCLC chemotherapy trials. Primary outcomes were response rate, overall survival (OS), toxicity, and dose delivery. A secondary analysis examined survival by sex in histological subgroups. RESULTS: Of 2349 patients, 34% were women. Women had a higher response rate to chemotherapy (42% versus 40%, P = 0.01) and longer survival than men (median OS 9.6 versus 8.6 months, P = 0.002). The difference in OS remained after adjusting for age, stage, performance status, and histology (hazard ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.74-0.92, P = 0.0005). Upon further examination, longer survival in women was only seen in patients with adenocarcinoma (test for interaction P = 0.006). There were no differences in hematological toxicity or transfusions. Women experienced more grade 3-4 emesis than men (P < 0.0001) and more dose delays (P = 0.02) or dose reductions (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The positive prognostic effect among women is confirmed in patients receiving platinum-based chemotherapy but appears confined to those with adenocarcinoma histology.

Elevated PTTG and PBF predicts poor patient outcome and modulates DNA damage response genes in thyroid cancer.

The proto-oncogene PTTG and its binding partner PBF have been widely studied in multiple cancer types, particularly thyroid and colorectal, but their combined role in tumourigenesis is uncharacterised. Here, we show for the first time that together PTTG and PBF significantly modulate DNA damage response (DDR) genes, including p53 target genes, required to maintain genomic integrity in thyroid cells. Critically, DDR genes were extensively repressed in primary thyrocytes from a bitransgenic murine model (Bi-Tg) of thyroid-specific PBF and PTTG overexpression. Irradiation exposure to amplify p53 levels further induced significant repression of DDR genes in Bi-Tg thyrocytes (P=2.4 × 10-4) compared with either PBF- (P=1.5 × 10-3) or PTTG-expressing thyrocytes (P=NS). Consistent with this, genetic instability was greatest in Bi-Tg thyrocytes with a mean genetic instability (GI) index of 35.8±2.6%, as well as significant induction of gross chromosomal aberrations in thyroidal TPC-1 cells following overexpression of PBF and PTTG. We extended our findings to human thyroid cancer using TCGA data sets (n=322) and found striking correlations with PBF and PTTG expression in well-characterised DDR gene panel RNA-seq data. In addition, genetic associations and transient transfection identified PBF as a downstream target of the receptor tyrosine kinase-BRAF signalling pathway, emphasising a role for PBF as a novel component in a pathway well described to drive neoplastic growth. We also showed that overall survival (P=1.91 × 10-5) and disease-free survival (P=4.9 × 10-5) was poorer for TCGA patients with elevated tumoural PBF/PTTG expression and mutationally activated BRAF. Together our findings indicate that PBF and PTTG have a critical role in promoting thyroid cancer that is predictive of poorer patient outcome.

Vaccination to improve the persistence of CD19CAR gene-modified T cells in relapsed pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Trials with second generation CD19 chimeric antigen receptors (CAR) T-cells report unprecedented responses but are associated with risk of cytokine release syndrome (CRS). Instead, we studied the use of donor Epstein-Barr virus-specific T-cells (EBV CTL) transduced with a first generation CD19CAR, relying on the endogenous T-cell receptor for proliferation. We conducted a multi-center phase I/II study of donor CD19CAR transduced EBV CTL in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Patients were eligible pre-emptively if they developed molecular relapse (>5 × 10-4) post first stem cell transplant (SCT), or prophylactically post second SCT. An initial cohort showed poor expansion/persistence. We therefore investigated EBV-directed vaccination to enhance expansion/persistence. Eleven patients were treated. No CRS, neurotoxicity or graft versus host disease (GVHD) was observed. At 1 month, 5 patients were in CR (4 continuing, 1 de novo), 1 PR, 3 had stable disease and 3 no response. At a median follow-up of 12 months, 10 of 11 have relapsed, 2 are alive with disease and 1 alive in CR 3 years. Although CD19CAR CTL expansion was poor, persistence was enhanced by vaccination. Median persistence was 0 (range: 0-28) days without vaccination compared to 56 (range: 0-221) days with vaccination (P=0.06). This study demonstrates the feasibility of multi-center studies of CAR T cell therapy and the potential for enhancing persistence with vaccination.

Adjuvant goserelin in pre-menopausal patients with early breast cancer: Results from the ZIPP study.

The Zoladex In Pre-menopausal Patients (ZIPP) study was designed to determine whether addition of goserelin ('Zoladex') and/or tamoxifen to adjuvant therapy (radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy), provided benefit to pre- or peri-menopausal women with operable, early breast cancer. A combined analysis of four randomised trials using a core protocol was performed. Patients (n = 2710) were randomised into a 2 x 2 factorial trial based on goserelin and tamoxifen (n = 1800) or randomised to receive goserelin or not (n = 910; some received elective tamoxifen) for 2 years. The analysis presented here compares women who did (n = 1354) or did not (n = 1356) receive goserelin. After a median follow-up of 5.5 years, goserelin provided a significant benefit for event-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69, 0.92; P = 0.002) and overall survival (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.67, 0.99; P = 0.038). Goserelin was well tolerated. These data show that the addition of goserelin to standard adjuvant therapy is more effective than standard therapy alone in pre-menopausal women with early breast cancer.

SURUSS in perspective.

BACKGROUND: Until the publication of the Serum Urine and Ultrasound Screening Study (SURUSS) report, it was difficult to compare the different antenatal screening tests for Down's Syndrome because of variations in study designs. We here present the main results from SURUSS, updated to take account of recent information on nuchal translucency in Down's Syndrome pregnancies, and discuss their implications. METHODS: SURUSS was a prospective study of 47,053 singleton pregnancies (including 101 pregnancies with Down's Syndrome) conducted in 25 maternity units. Nuchal translucency measurements were taken. Serum and urine samples collected between 9 and 13 weeks, and again between 14 and 20 weeks of pregnancy were stored. Samples from each affected pregnancy and five matched controls were tested for currently used or suggested biochemical Down's Syndrome screening markers. Pregnancies were followed up to determine the presence or absence of Down's Syndrome. For an 85% Down's Syndrome detection rate, the false-positive rate for the Integrated test (nuchal translucency and pregnancy associated plasma protein-A [PAPP-A] at 11 completed weeks of pregnancy, and alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol [uE3], free beta or total human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and inhibin-A in the early second trimester) was 0.9%, the Serum integrated test (without nuchal translucency) 2.7%, the Combined test (nuchal translucency with free beta-hCG and PAPP-A at 11 weeks) 4.3%, the Quadruple test (alpha-fetoprotein, uE3, free beta or total hCG and inhibin-A) 6.2%, and nuchal translucency at 11 weeks, 15.2%. All tests included maternal age. Using the Integrated test at an 85% detection rate, there would be six diagnostic procedure-related unaffected fetal losses following amniocentesis per 100,000 women screened compared with 35 using the Combined test or 45 with the Quadruple test. CONCLUSIONS: The Integrated test offers the most effective and safe method of screening for women who attend in the first trimester. The next best test is the Serum integrated test. The Quadruple test is the best test for women who first attend in the second trimester. There is no justification for retaining the Double (alpha-fetoprotein and hCG) or Triple (alpha-fetoprotein, uE3, and hCG) tests, or nuchal translucency alone (with or without maternal age) in antenatal screening for Down's Syndrome.

Environmental tobacco smoke exposure in public places of European cities.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) has important public health implications. The results of the first European multi-centre study that measured ETS exposure in a range of public places (transport, educational settings, and leisure facilities such as bars and restaurants) are presented. METHOD: Nicotine vapour phase was measured using ETS passive samplers containing a filter treated with sodium bisulfate. RESULTS: Bars and discos are the places with the highest concentrations of nicotine from ETS, median ranging from 19 to 122 microg/m(3). Restaurants had the next highest values. Concentrations of nicotine generally range from 0.1-5 microg/m(3) in airports, and from 0.5-10 microg/m(3) in train stations. Nicotine was also found in schools and universities, yet schools tended to have the lowest concentrations compared to all the other public places sampled. In hospitals levels were generally below 5 microg/m(3). CONCLUSIONS: Although there is some variability between cities, this study shows that tobacco smoke is present in most of the studied public places. The study also showed that in areas where smoking is prohibited, concentrations of nicotine are lower than in areas where smoking is allowed but they are not zero. The results of this study indicate that policies should be implemented that would effectively reduce levels of tobacco smoke in public areas.

Elevated plasma atrial natriuretic peptide levels after occlusion of the thoracic aorta.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The influence of occlusion of the thoracic aorta by an intraluminal balloon on plasma atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) levels was evaluated in humans. METHODS: The changes in plasma ANP and plasma norepinephrine levels, and hemodynamic parameters were measured in 10 patients under general anesthesia undergoing regional chemotherapy treatment involving the 15-min inflation and subsequent deflation of an intraaortic balloon. RESULTS: The hemodynamic changes observed were similar to those seen during aortic clamping and declamping in patients undergoing vascular surgery. Plasma ANP levels (median+/-SD) measured 1 min after inflation (146+/-117 pg/mL) and 1 min after deflation (168+/-189 pg/mL) of the aortic balloon were significantly higher than baseline values (83+/-55 pg/mL), with a mean increase, respectively, of 92% and 97% (95% confidence intervals [CI], 50 to 147% and 53 to 152%). Plasma ANP levels were still elevated 30 min after deflation (121+/-94 pg/mL), a 56% increase (95% CI, 21 to 100%), although the hemodynamic parameters had already returned to their baseline levels. There was no evidence that the hemodynamic variables were associated with changes in plasma ANP levels (all p values > 0.30). In addition, there was no evidence of an association between plasma ANP and plasma norepinephrine levels at any of the four individual sampling points (p > 0.17). Thirty minutes after deflation, however, norepinephrine levels were higher than baseline values. CONCLUSIONS: The changes in plasma ANP levels after aortic occlusion and reinstitution of blood flow may be dependent on parameters other than atrial stretch and pressure.

Assay precision of serum alpha fetoprotein in antenatal screening for neural tube defects and Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of current serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) assays on the performance of screening for open neural tube defects and Down's syndrome. METHODS: Maternal serum samples, collected between weeks 15 and 22 from 470 singleton pregnancies without neural tube defects or Down's syndrome, were assayed for AFP using an automated fluorometric immunoassay. The samples had been assayed for AFP using an in house radioimmunoassay with a lower precision ten years before. The variance of AFP using the radioimmunoassay was compared with that using the current fluorometric assay and then used to estimate the detection rates and false positive rates for neural tube defect and Down's syndrome screening. RESULTS: Current serum AFP assays are more precise. Using a cut off level of 2.5 multiples of the median, the false positive rate in screening for anencephaly and open spina bifida was 0.8% with the new assay compared with 2% using the previous assay. When screening for Down's syndrome, the false positive rate is reduced by about one percentage point without loss of detection. CONCLUSION: Improvements in the precision of maternal serum AFP measurement have led to small but useful improvements in screening for open neural tube defects and Down's syndrome. Published estimates of screening performance using such modern assays can be revised accordingly.

Empirical validation of risk screening for Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To validate individual risk estimates in antenatal serum screening for Down's syndrome. METHODS: Women screened for Down's syndrome using maternal serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) with maternal age (the triple test) or AFP, uE3, free beta subunit and free alpha subunit of hCG with maternal age (the quadruple test) were grouped according to their predicted risk of having an affected pregnancy. The mean predicted risk in each category was then compared with the observed prevalence based on the number of affected and unaffected pregnancies in each category. SUBJECTS: About 100,000 pregnant women screened for Down's syndrome from 1989 to 1995. RESULTS: There was close agreement between the predicted term risk and the prevalence at birth for both the triple test and the quadruple test. For example, with the quadruple test the predicted risk in the highest risk group was 1 in 3.3 and the prevalence was 1 in 2.6; in the lowest risk group these were 1 in 3000 and 1 in 2300 respectively. CONCLUSION: Risk estimates based on multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome are accurate. The technique used to demonstrate this is simple and offers a useful empirical check on screening performance.

Antenatal screening for Down's syndrome.

BACKGROUND: In 1968 the first antenatal diagnosis of Down's syndrome was made and screening on the basis of selecting women of advanced maternal age for amniocentesis was gradually introduced into medical practice. In 1983 it was shown that low maternal serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) was associated with Down's syndrome. Later, raised maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and low unconjugated oestriol (uE3) were found to be markers of Down's syndrome. In 1988 the three biochemical markers were used together with maternal age as a method of screening, and this has been widely adopted. PRINCIPLES OF ANTENATAL SCREENING FOR DOWN'S SYNDROME: Methods of screening need to be fully evaluated before being introduced into routine clinical practice. This included choosing markers for which there is sufficient scientific evidence of efficacy, quantifying performance in terms of detection and false positive rates, and establishing methods of monitoring performance. Screening needs to be provided as an integrated service, coordinating and managing the separate aspects of the screening process. SERUM MARKERS AT 15-22 WEEKS OF PREGNANCY: A large number of serum markers have been found to be associated with Down's syndrome between 15 and 22 weeks of pregnancy. The principal markers are AFP, hCG or its individual subunits (free alpha- and free beta-hCG), uE3, and inhibin A. Screening performance varies according to the choice of markers used and whether ultrasound is used to estimate gestational age (table 1). When an ultrasound scan is used to estimate gestational age the detection rate for a 5% false positive rate is estimated to be 59% using the double test (AFP and hCG), 69% using the triple test (AFP, hCG, uE3), and 76% using the quadruple test (AFP, hCG, uE3, inhibin A), all in combination with maternal age. Other factors that can usefully be taken into account in screening are maternal weight, the presence of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, multiple pregnancy, ethnic origin, previous Down's syndrome pregnancy, and whether the test is the first one in a pregnancy or a repeat. Factors such as parity and smoking are associated with one or more of the serum markers, but the effect is too small to justify adjusting for these factors in interpreting a screening test. URINARY MARKERS AND FETAL CELLS IN MATERNAL BLOOD: Urinary beta-core hCG has been investigated in a number of studies and shown to be raised in pregnancies with Down's syndrome. This area is currently the subject of active research and the use of urine in future screening programmes may be a practical possibility. Other urinary markers, such as total oestriol and free beta-hCG may also be of value. Fetal cells can be identified in the maternal circulation and techniques such as fluorescent in situ hybridisation can be used to identify aneuploidies, including Down's syndrome and trisomy 18. This approach may, in the future, be of value in screening or diagnosis. Currently, the techniques available do not have the performance, simplicity, or economy needed to replace existing methods. DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS: Demonstration projects are valuable in determining the feasibility of screening and in refining the practical application of screening. They are of less value in determining the performance of different screening methods. Several demonstration projects have been conducted using the triple and double tests. In general, the uptake of screening was about 80%. The screen positive rates were about 5-6%. About 80% of women with positive screening results had an invasive diagnostic test, and of those found to have a pregnancy with Down's syndrome, about 90% chose to have a termination of pregnancy. ULTRASOUND MARKERS AT 15-22 WEEKS OF PREGNANCY: There are a number of ultrasound markers of Down's syndrome at 15-22 weeks, including nuchal fold thickness, cardiac abnormalities, duodenal atresia, femur length, humerus length, pyelectasis, and hyperechogenic bowel. (ABSTRA

Lung cancer and passive smoking.

The evidence from epidemiological studies, studies of biochemical markers of exposure and toxicological studies, confirm that there is a causal association between the risk of lung cancer and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. Nonsmokers can inhale and metabolize carcinogens in tobacco smoke and other markers of environmental tobacco smoke inhalation (nicotine and cotinine) are raised in nonsmokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke. In epidemiological studies of women who are lifelong nonsmokers, there is a statistically significant excess risk of lung cancer (24%, 95% confidence interval 13-36%) from exposure to environmental tobacco smoke from the spouse and this increases with the number of cigarettes smoked and duration of the marriage. Misclassification bias (women who smoke but claim to be lifelong nonsmokers) and dietary confounding are unlikely to explain the association; after adjustment for both, the risk of lung cancer from environmental tobacco smoke exposure was still statistically significant. In any event, their effects on the risk of lung cancer in the epidemiological studies are balanced out by allowing for background exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (that is, other than from the spouse) in the reference group; the excess risk after allowing for all three is an estimated 26% (95% confidence interval 7-47%), similar to the adjusted figure of 24%. In Britain, about one in every six nonsmokers are exposed to tobacco smoke from smokers in the home. Passive smoking is an avoidable cause of mortality and morbidity. Prevention strategies to reduce the amount of cigarette smoking in public places should be part of public health policy.