Population responses to a historic drought across the range of the common monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus).

PREMISE: Due to climate change, more frequent and intense periodic droughts are predicted to increasingly pose major challenges to the persistence of plant populations. When a severe drought occurs over a broad geographical region, independent responses by individual populations provide replicated natural experiments for examining the evolution of drought resistance and the potential for evolutionary rescue. METHODS: We used a resurrection approach to examine trait evolution in populations of the common monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus, exposed to a record drought in California from 2011 to 2017. Specifically, we compared variation in traits related to drought escape and avoidance from seeds collected from 37 populations pre- and post-drought in a common garden. In a parallel experiment, we evaluated fitness in two populations, one which thrived and one which was nearly extirpated during the drought, under well-watered and dry-down conditions. RESULTS: We observed substantial variation among populations in trait evolution. In the subset of populations where phenotypes changed significantly, divergence proceeded along trait correlations with some populations flowering rapidly with less vegetative tissue accumulation and others delaying flowering with greater vegetative tissue accumulation. The degree of trait evolution was only weakly correlated with drought intensity but strongly correlated with initial levels of standing variation. Fitness was higher in the post-drought than pre-drought accessions in both treatments for the thriving population, but lower in both treatments for the nearly extirpated population. CONCLUSIONS: Together, our results indicate that evolutionary responses to drought are context dependent and reflect the standing genetic variation and genetic correlations present within populations.

Patterns and drivers of fish extirpations in rivers of the American Southwest and Southeast.

Effective conservation of freshwater biodiversity requires spatially explicit investigations of how dams and hydroclimatic alterations among climate regions may interact to drive species to extinction. We investigated how dams and hydroclimatic alterations interact with species ecological and life history traits to influence past extirpation probabilities of native freshwater fishes in the Upper and Lower Colorado River (CR), Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT), and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) basins. Using long-term discharge data for continuously gaged streams and rivers, we quantified streamflow anomalies (i.e., departure "expected" streamflow) at the sub-basin scale over the past half-century. Next, we related extirpation probabilities of native fishes in both regions to streamflow anomalies, river basin characteristics, species traits, and non-native species richness using binomial logistic regression. Sub-basin extirpations in the Southwest (n = 95 Upper CR, n = 130 Lower CR) were highest in lowland mainstem rivers impacted by large dams and in desert springs. Dampened flow seasonality, increased longevity (i.e., delayed reproduction), and decreased fish egg sizes (i.e., lower parental care) were related to elevated fish extirpation probability in the Southwest. Sub-basin extirpations in the Southeast (ACT n = 46, ACF n = 22) were most prevalent in upland rivers, with flow dependency, greater age and length at maturity, isolation by dams, and greater distance upstream. Our results confirm that dams are an overriding driver of native fish species losses, irrespective of basin-wide differences in native or non-native species richness. Dams and hydrologic alterations interact with species traits to influence community disassembly, and very high extirpation risks in the Southeast are due to interactions between high dam density and species restricted ranges. Given global surges in dam building and retrofitting, increased extirpation risks should be expected unless management strategies that balance flow regulation with ecological outcomes are widely implemented.

Dealing with uncertainty when assessing fish passage through culvert road crossings.

Assessing the passage of aquatic organisms through culvert road crossings has become increasingly common in efforts to restore stream habitat. Several federal and state agencies and local stakeholders have adopted assessment approaches based on literature-derived criteria for culvert impassability. However, criteria differ and are typically specific to larger-bodied fishes. In an analysis to prioritize culverts for remediation to benefit imperiled, small-bodied fishes in the Upper Coosa River system in the southeastern United States, we assessed the sensitivity of prioritization to the use of differing but plausible criteria for culvert impassability. Using measurements at 256 road crossings, we assessed culvert impassability using four alternative criteria sets represented in Bayesian belief networks. Two criteria sets scored culverts as either passable or impassable based on alternative thresholds of culvert characteristics (outlet elevation, baseflow water velocity). Two additional criteria sets incorporated uncertainty concerning ability of small-bodied fishes to pass through culverts and estimated a probability of culvert impassability. To prioritize culverts for remediation, we combined estimated culvert impassability with culvert position in the stream network relative to other barriers to compute prospective gain in connected stream habitat for the target fish species. Although four culverts ranked highly for remediation regardless of which criteria were used to assess impassability, other culverts differed widely in priority depending on criteria. Our results emphasize the value of explicitly incorporating uncertainty into criteria underlying remediation decisions. Comparing outcomes among alternative, plausible criteria may also help to identify research most needed to narrow management uncertainty.