RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Child mortality is a core indicator for child health and wellness. Botswana reported an under-five-year-old children (UFC) mortality rate of 48 deaths per 1000 live births in 2017 against 152 deaths per 1000 live births in 1971. This was a commendable accomplishment. However, given the current country situation whereby 23% of children are born to women living with HIV, the incidence of mortality among UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV and their survival are better health metrics to inform decision making. Nevertheless, such data are still very scarce in Botswana. The study's objective was to estimate the incidence of UFC mortality among children born to women living with and not living with HIV and to compare UFC survival between the two groups. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of mortality among UFC was conducted in Botswana, including all UFC born between January 2014 and June 2018. Data were extracted from the National Under-Five Mortality Audit Committee (NUFMAC) database using a standardized data collection tool. The incidence rate of UFC death was estimated as a function of the duration from birth to death. Survival functions of UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV were plotted and compared using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: The overall incidence of UFC death was 4.63/1000 child months (CM) (95% CI 4.36-4.90). The incidence of UFC death among children born to women living with HIV was 6.96/1000 CM (95% CI 6.47-7.45) and that of UFC born to women not living with HIV was 4.34/1000 CM (95% CI 4.03-4.65). The overall average and standard error (SE) time to event/death for UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV was 54.80 (0.18) months. The mean (SE) time to death for UFC born to women living with HIV was 52.79 (0.41) months and that of UFC born to women not living with HIV was 55.44 (0.19) months (log-rank X 2 = 37.59, p < 0.001). Prematurity or low birth weight was the leading cause of UFC death in both groups; but, it was higher in UFC born to women not living with HIV subgroup than their counterparts. Four cases only or 0.5% of the 806 death cases reported by reporting physicians were attributable to HIV-related complications. CONCLUSION: Despite the commendable efforts made in reducing UFC death, the incidence of UFC death among UFC born to women living with HIV in Botswana is still higher, and their survival is shorter compared to UFC born to women not living with HIV. Child survival interventions should prioritize UFC born to women living with HIV to improve their survival.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Policy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as those brought about by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the earlier phases of the emergence of COVID-19, China was the first to impose strict restrictions on movement (lockdown) on January 23rd, 2020. A strategy whose effectiveness in curtailing COVID-19 was yet to be determined. We, therefore, sought to study the impact of the lockdown in reducing the incidence of COVID-19. METHODS: Daily cases of COVID-19 that occurred in China which were registered between January 12th and March 30th, 2020, were extracted from the Johns Hopkins CSSE team COVID-19 ArcGIS® dashboards. Daily cases reported were used as data points in the series. Two interrupted series models were run: one with an interruption point of 23 January 2020 (model 1) and the other with a 14-day deferred interruption point of 6th February (model 2). For both models, the magnitude of change (before and after) and linear trend analyses were measured, and ß-coefficients reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the precision. RESULTS: Seventy-eight data points were used in the analysis. There was an 11% versus a 163% increase in daily cases in models 1 and 2, respectively, in the preintervention periods (p ≤ 0.001). Comparing the period immediately following the intervention points to the counterfactual, there was a daily increase of 2,746% (p < 0.001) versus a decline of 207% (p = 0.802) in model 2. However, in both scenarios, there was a statistically significant drop in the daily cases predicted for this data and beyond when comparing the preintervention periods and postintervention periods (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: There was a significant decrease the COVID-19 daily cases reported in China following the institution of a lockdown, and therefore, lockdown may be used to curtail the burden of COVID-19.