Contrasting leaf-scale photosynthetic low-light response and its temperature dependency are key to differences in crop-scale radiation use efficiency.

Radiation use efficiency (RUE) is a key crop adaptation trait that quantifies the potential amount of aboveground biomass produced by the crop per unit of solar energy intercepted. But it is unclear why elite maize and grain sorghum hybrids differ in their RUE at the crop level. Here, we used a non-traditional top-down approach via canopy photosynthesis modelling to identify leaf-level photosynthetic traits that are key to differences in crop-level RUE. A novel photosynthetic response measurement was developed and coupled with use of a Bayesian model fitting procedure, incorporating a C4 leaf photosynthesis model, to infer cohesive sets of photosynthetic parameters by simultaneously fitting responses to CO2 , light, and temperature. Statistically significant differences between leaf photosynthetic parameters of elite maize and grain sorghum hybrids were found across a range of leaf temperatures, in particular for effects on the quantum yield of photosynthesis, but also for the maximum enzymatic activity of Rubisco and PEPc. Simulation of diurnal canopy photosynthesis predicted that the leaf-level photosynthetic low-light response and its temperature dependency are key drivers of the performance of crop-level RUE, generating testable hypotheses for further physiological analysis and bioengineering applications.

APSIM-based modeling approach to understand sorghum production environments in Mali.

Sorghum production system in the semi-arid region of Africa is characterized by low yields which are generally attributed to high rainfall variability, poor soil fertility, and biotic factors. Production constraints must be well understood and quantified to design effective sorghum-system improvements. This study uses the state-of-the-art in silico methods and focuses on characterizing the sorghum production regions in Mali for drought occurrence and its effects on sorghum productivity. For this purpose, we adapted the APSIM-sorghum module to reproduce two cultivated photoperiod-sensitive sorghum types across a latitude of major sorghum production regions in Western Africa. We used the simulation outputs to characterize drought stress scenarios. We identified three main drought scenarios: (i) no-stress; (ii) early pre-flowering drought stress; and (iii) drought stress onset around flowering. The frequency of drought stress scenarios experienced by the two sorghum types across rainfall zones and soil types differed. As expected, the early pre-flowering and flowering drought stress occurred more frequently in isohyets < 600 mm, for the photoperiod-sensitive, late-flowering sorghum type. In isohyets above 600 mm, the frequency of drought stress was very low for both cultivars. We quantified the consequences of these drought scenarios on grain and biomass productivity. The yields of the highly-photoperiod-sensitive sorghum type were quite stable across the higher rainfall zones > 600 mm, but was affected by the drought stress in the lower rainfall zones < 600 mm. Comparatively, the less photoperiod-sensitive cultivar had notable yield gain in the driest regions < 600 mm. The results suggest that, at least for the tested crop types, drought stress might not be the major constraint to sorghum production in isohyets > 600 mm. The findings from this study provide the entry point for further quantitative testing of the Genotype × Environment × Management options required to optimize sorghum production in Mali. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00909-5.

A cross-scale analysis to understand and quantify the effects of photosynthetic enhancement on crop growth and yield across environments.

Photosynthetic manipulation provides new opportunities for enhancing crop yield. However, understanding and quantifying the importance of individual and multiple manipulations on the seasonal biomass growth and yield performance of target crops across variable production environments is limited. Using a state-of-the-art cross-scale model in the APSIM platform we predicted the impact of altering photosynthesis on the enzyme-limited (Ac ) and electron transport-limited (Aj ) rates, seasonal dynamics in canopy photosynthesis, biomass growth, and yield formation via large multiyear-by-location crop growth simulations. A broad list of promising strategies to improve photosynthesis for C3 wheat and C4 sorghum were simulated. In the top decile of seasonal outcomes, yield gains were predicted to be modest, ranging between 0% and 8%, depending on the manipulation and crop type. We report how photosynthetic enhancement can affect the timing and severity of water and nitrogen stress on the growing crop, resulting in nonintuitive seasonal crop dynamics and yield outcomes. We predicted that strategies enhancing Ac alone generate more consistent but smaller yield gains across all water and nitrogen environments, Aj enhancement alone generates larger gains but is undesirable in more marginal environments. Large increases in both Ac and Aj generate the highest gains across all environments. Yield outcomes of the tested manipulation strategies were predicted and compared for realistic Australian wheat and sorghum production. This study uniquely unpacks complex cross-scale interactions between photosynthesis and seasonal crop dynamics and improves understanding and quantification of the potential impact of photosynthesis traits (or lack of it) for crop improvement research.

Two decades of harnessing standing genetic variation for physiological traits to improve drought tolerance in maize.

We review approaches to maize breeding for improved drought tolerance during flowering and grain filling in the central and western US corn belt and place our findings in the context of results from public breeding. Here we show that after two decades of dedicated breeding efforts, the rate of crop improvement under drought increased from 6.2 g m-2 year-1 to 7.5 g m-2 year-1, closing the genetic gain gap with respect to the 8.6 g m-2 year-1 observed under water-sufficient conditions. The improvement relative to the long-term genetic gain was possible by harnessing favourable alleles for physiological traits available in the reference population of genotypes. Experimentation in managed stress environments that maximized the genetic correlation with target environments was key for breeders to identify and select for these alleles. We also show that the embedding of physiological understanding within genomic selection methods via crop growth models can hasten genetic gain under drought. We estimate a prediction accuracy differential (Δr) above current prediction approaches of ~30% (Δr=0.11, r=0.38), which increases with increasing complexity of the trait environment system as estimated by Shannon information theory. We propose this framework to inform breeding strategies for drought stress across geographies and crops.

Differences in temperature responses among phenological processes in diverse Ethiopian sorghum germplasm can affect their specific adaptation to environmental conditions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Main shoot total leaf number (TLN) is a key determinant of plant leaf area and crop adaptation. Environmental factors other than photoperiod can affect TLN in sorghum, implying that leaf appearance rate (LAR) and development rate can differ in response to temperature. The objectives of this study were to determine (1) if temperature effects on TLN can be explained as a consequence of differences in temperature responses across phenological processes and (2) if genotypic differences in these responses can be linked to agroecological adaptation. METHODS: Nineteen sorghum genotypes were sown on 12 dates at two locations in Ethiopia with contrasting altitude, creating temperature differences independent of photoperiod. TLN and temperature were recorded in all experiments and LAR for six sowing dates. KEY RESULTS: Eleven of the genotypes showed a temperature effect on TLN, which was associated with a significantly higher base temperature (Tbase) for LAR than for pre-anthesis development rate (DR). In contrast, genotypes with no effect of temperature on TLN had similar Tbase for LAR and DR. Across genotypes, Tbase for LAR and DR were highly correlated, but genotypes with low Tbase had the greatest difference in Tbase between the two processes. Genotypic differences were associated with racial grouping. CONCLUSIONS: Genotypic and racial differences in responses of phenological processes to temperature, in particular in Tbase, can affect specific adaptation to agroecological zones, as these differences can affect TLN in response to temperature and hence canopy size and the duration of the pre-anthesis period. These can both affect the amount of water used and radiation intercepted pre-anthesis. A multi-disciplinary approach is required to identify genotype × environment × management combinations that can best capture the ensuing specific adaptation.

Modeling adaptation of sorghum in Ethiopia with APSIM-opportunities with G×E×M.

Sorghum is an important food and feed crop in the dry lowland areas of Ethiopia. Farmers grow both early-sown long-duration landraces and late-sown short-duration improved varieties. Because timing and intensity of drought stress can vary in space and time, an understanding of major traits (G), environments (E), management (M), and their interactions (G×E×M) is needed to optimize grain and forage yield given the limited available resources. Crop simulation modeling can provide insights into these complex G×E×M interactions and be used to identify possible avenues for adaptation to prevalent drought patterns in Ethiopia. In a previous study predictive phenology models were developed for a range of Ethiopian germplasm. In this study, the aims were to (1) further parameterize and validate the APSIM-sorghum model for crop growth and yield of Ethiopian germplasm, and (2) quantify by simulation the productivity-risk trade-offs associated with early vs late sowing strategies in the dry lowlands of Ethiopia. Field experiments involving Ethiopian germplasm with contrasting phenology and height were conducted under well-watered (Melkassa) and water-limited (Miesso) conditions and crop development, growth and yield measured. Soil characterization and weather records at the experimental sites, combined with model parameterization, enabled testing of the APSIM-sorghum model, which showed good correspondence between simulated and observed data. The simulated productivity for the Ethiopian dry lowlands environments showed trade-offs between biomass and grain yield for early and late sowing strategies. The late sowing strategy tended to produce less biomass except in poor seasons, whereas it tended to produce greater grain yield except in very good seasons. This study exemplified the systems approach to identifying traits and management options needed to quantify the production-risk trade-offs associated with crop adaptation in the Ethiopian dry lowlands and further exemplifies the general robustness of the sorghum model in APSIM for this task.

Physiological trait networks enhance understanding of crop growth and water use in contrasting environments.

Plant function arises from a complex network of structural and physiological traits. Explicit representation of these traits, as well as their connections with other biophysical processes, is required to advance our understanding of plant-soil-climate interactions. We used the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) to evaluate physiological trait networks in maize. Net primary productivity (NPP) and grain yield were simulated across five contrasting climate scenarios. Simulations achieving high NPP and grain yield in high precipitation environments featured trait networks conferring high water use strategies: deep roots, high stomatal conductance at low water potential ("risky" stomatal regulation), high xylem hydraulic conductivity and high maximal leaf area index. In contrast, high NPP and grain yield was achieved in dry environments with low late-season precipitation via water conserving trait networks: deep roots, high embolism resistance and low stomatal conductance at low leaf water potential ("conservative" stomatal regulation). We suggest that our approach, which allows for the simultaneous evaluation of physiological traits, soil characteristics and their interactions (i.e., networks), has potential to improve our understanding of crop performance in different environments. In contrast, evaluating single traits in isolation of other coordinated traits does not appear to be an effective strategy for predicting plant performance.

Radiation use efficiency increased over a century of maize (Zea mays L.) breeding in the US corn belt.

In the absence of stress, crop growth depends on the amount of light intercepted by the canopy and the conversion efficiency [radiation use efficiency (RUE)]. This study tested the hypothesis that long-term genetic gain for grain yield was partly due to improved RUE. The hypothesis was tested using 30 elite maize hybrids commercialized in the US corn belt between 1930 and 2017. Crops grown under irrigation showed that pre-flowering crop growth increased at a rate of 0.11 g m-2 year-1, while light interception remained constant. Therefore, RUE increased at a rate of 0.0049 g MJ-1 year-1, translating into an average of 3 g m-2 year-1 of grain yield over 100 years of maize breeding. Considering that the harvest index has not changed for crops grown at optimal density for the hybrid, the cumulative RUE increase over the history of commercial maize breeding in the USA can account for ~32% of the documented yield trend for maize grown in the central US corn belt. The remaining RUE gap between this study and theoretical maximum values suggests that a yield improvement of a similar magnitude could be achieved by further increasing RUE.

Genetic control of leaf angle in sorghum and its effect on light interception.

Developing sorghum genotypes adapted to different light environments requires understanding of a plant's ability to capture light, determined through leaf angle specifically. This study dissected the genetic basis of leaf angle in 3 year field trials at two sites, using a sorghum diversity panel (729 accessions). A wide range of variation in leaf angle with medium heritability was observed. Leaf angle explained 36% variation in canopy light extinction coefficient, highlighting the extent to which variation in leaf angle influences light interception at the whole-canopy level. This study also found that the sorghum races of Guinea and Durra consistently having the largest and smallest leaf angle, respectively, highlighting the potential role of leaf angle in adaptation to distinct environments. The genome-wide association study detected 33 quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with leaf angle. Strong synteny was observed with previously detected leaf angle QTLs in maize (70%) and rice (40%) within 10 cM, among which the overlap was significantly enriched according to χ2 tests, suggesting a highly consistent genetic control in grasses. A priori leaf angle candidate genes identified in maize and rice were found to be enriched within a 1-cM window around the sorghum leaf angle QTLs. Additionally, protein domain analysis identified the WD40 protein domain as being enriched within a 1-cM window around the QTLs. These outcomes show that there is sufficient heritability and natural variation in the angle of upper leaves in sorghum which may be exploited to change light interception and optimize crop canopies for different contexts.

Genetic modification of PIN genes induces causal mechanisms of stay-green drought adaptation phenotype.

The stay-green trait is recognized as a key drought adaptation mechanism in cereals worldwide. Stay-green sorghum plants exhibit delayed senescence of leaves and stems, leading to prolonged growth, a reduced risk of lodging, and higher grain yield under end-of-season drought stress. More than 45 quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with stay-green have been identified, including two major QTL (Stg1 and Stg2). However, the contributing genes that regulate functional stay-green are not known. Here we show that the PIN FORMED family of auxin efflux carrier genes induce some of the causal mechanisms driving the stay-green phenotype in sorghum, with SbPIN4 and SbPIN2 located in Stg1 and Stg2, respectively. We found that nine of 11 sorghum PIN genes aligned with known stay-green QTL. In transgenic studies, we demonstrated that PIN genes located within the Stg1 (SbPIN4), Stg2 (SbPIN2), and Stg3b (SbPIN1) QTL regions acted pleiotropically to modulate canopy development, root architecture, and panicle growth in sorghum, with SbPIN1, SbPIN2, and SbPIN4 differentially expressed in various organs relative to the non-stay-green control. The emergent consequence of such modifications in canopy and root architecture is a stay-green phenotype. Crop simulation modelling shows that the SbPIN2 phenotype can increase grain yield under drought.

Genetic basis of sorghum leaf width and its potential as a surrogate for transpiration efficiency.

KEY MESSAGE: Leaf width was correlated with plant-level transpiration efficiency and associated with 19 QTL in sorghum, suggesting it could be a surrogate for transpiration efficiency in large breeding program. Enhancing plant transpiration efficiency (TE) by reducing transpiration without compromising photosynthesis and yield is a desirable selection target in crop improvement programs. While narrow individual leaf width has been correlated with greater intrinsic water use efficiency in C4 species, the extent to which this translates to greater plant TE has not been investigated. The aims of this study were to evaluate the correlation of leaf width with TE at the whole-plant scale and investigate the genetic control of leaf width in sorghum. Two lysimetry experiments using 16 genotypes varying for stomatal conductance and three field trials using a large sorghum diversity panel (n = 701 lines) were conducted. Negative associations of leaf width with plant TE were found in the lysimetry experiments, suggesting narrow leaves may result in reduced plant transpiration without trade-offs in biomass accumulation. A wide range in width of the largest leaf was found in the sorghum diversity panel with consistent ranking among sorghum races, suggesting that environmental adaptation may have a role in modifying leaf width. Nineteen QTL were identified by genome-wide association studies on leaf width adjusted for flowering time. The QTL identified showed high levels of correspondence with those in maize and rice, suggesting similarities in the genetic control of leaf width across cereals. Three a priori candidate genes for leaf width, previously found to regulate dorsoventrality, were identified based on a 1-cM threshold. This study provides useful physiological and genetic insights for potential manipulation of leaf width to improve plant adaptation to diverse environments.

Reproductive resilience but not root architecture underpins yield improvement under drought in maize.

Because plants capture water and nutrients through roots, it was proposed that changes in root systems architecture (RSA) might underpin the 3-fold increase in maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield over the last century. Here we show that both RSA and yield have changed with decades of maize breeding, but not the crop water uptake. Results from X-ray phenotyping in controlled environments showed that single cross (SX) hybrids have smaller root systems than double cross (DX) hybrids for root diameters between 2465 µm and 181µm (P<0.05). Soil water extraction measured under field conditions ranged between 2.6 mm d-1 and 2.9 mm d-1 but were not significantly different between SX and DX hybrids. Yield and yield components were higher for SX than DX hybrids across densities and irrigation (P<0.001). Taken together, the results suggest that changes in RSA were not the cause of increased water uptake but an adaptation to high-density stands used in modern agriculture. This adaptation may have contributed to shift in resource allocation to the ear and indirectly improved reproductive resilience. Advances in root physiology and phenotyping can create opportunities to maintain long-term genetic gain in maize, but a shift from ideotype to crop and production system thinking will be required.

In pursuit of a better world: crop improvement and the CGIAR.

The CGIAR crop improvement (CI) programs, unlike commercial CI programs, which are mainly geared to profit though meeting farmers' needs, are charged with meeting multiple objectives with target populations that include both farmers and the community at large. We compiled the opinions from >30 experts in the private and public sector on key strategies, methodologies, and activities that could the help CGIAR meet the challenges of providing farmers with improved varieties while simultaneously meeting the goals of: (i) nutrition, health, and food security; (ii) poverty reduction, livelihoods, and jobs; (iii) gender equality, youth, and inclusion; (iv) climate adaptation and mitigation; and (v) environmental health and biodiversity. We review the crop improvement processes starting with crop choice, moving through to breeding objectives, production of potential new varieties, selection, and finally adoption by farmers. The importance of multidisciplinary teams working towards common objectives is stressed as a key factor to success. The role of the distinct disciplines, actors, and their interactions throughout the process from crop choice through to adoption by farmers is discussed and illustrated.

Tackling G × E × M interactions to close on-farm yield-gaps: creating novel pathways for crop improvement by predicting contributions of genetics and management to crop productivity.

KEY MESSAGE: Climate change and Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management interactions together challenge our strategies for crop improvement. Research to advance prediction methods for breeding and agronomy is opening new opportunities to tackle these challenges and overcome on-farm crop productivity yield-gaps through design of responsive crop improvement strategies. Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management (G × E × M) interactions underpin many aspects of crop productivity. An important question for crop improvement is "How can breeders and agronomists effectively explore the diverse opportunities within the high dimensionality of the complex G × E × M factorial to achieve sustainable improvements in crop productivity?" Whenever G × E × M interactions make important contributions to attainment of crop productivity, we should consider how to design crop improvement strategies that can explore the potential space of G × E × M possibilities, reveal the interesting Genotype-Management (G-M) technology opportunities for the Target Population of Environments (TPE), and enable the practical exploitation of the associated improved levels of crop productivity under on-farm conditions. Climate change adds additional layers of complexity and uncertainty to this challenge, by introducing directional changes in the environmental dimension of the G × E × M factorial. These directional changes have the potential to create further conditional changes in the contributions of the genetic and management dimensions to future crop productivity. Therefore, in the presence of G × E × M interactions and climate change, the challenge for both breeders and agronomists is to co-design new G-M technologies for a non-stationary TPE. Understanding these conditional changes in crop productivity through the relevant sciences for each dimension, Genotype, Environment, and Management, creates opportunities to predict novel G-M technology combinations suitable to achieve sustainable crop productivity and global food security targets for the likely climate change scenarios. Here we consider critical foundations required for any prediction framework that aims to move us from the current unprepared state of describing G × E × M outcomes to a future responsive state equipped to predict the crop productivity consequences of G-M technology combinations for the range of environmental conditions expected for a complex, non-stationary TPE under the influences of climate change.

Predicting phenotypes from genetic, environment, management, and historical data using CNNs.

KEY MESSAGE: Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can perform similarly or better than standard genomic prediction methods when sufficient genetic, environmental, and management data are provided. Predicting phenotypes from genetic (G), environmental (E), and management (M) conditions is a long-standing challenge with implications to agriculture, medicine, and conservation. Most methods reduce the factors in a dataset (feature engineering) in a subjective and potentially oversimplified manner. Deep neural networks such as Multilayer Perceptrons (MPL) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) can overcome this by allowing the data itself to determine which factors are most important. CNN models were developed for predicting agronomic yield from a combination of replicated trials and historical yield survey data. The results were more accurate than standard methods when tested on held-out G, E, and M data (r = 0.50 vs. r = 0.43), and performed slightly worse than standard methods when only G was held out (r = 0.74 vs. r = 0.80). Pre-training on historical data increased accuracy compared to trial data alone. Saliency map analysis indicated the CNN has "learned" to prioritize many factors of known agricultural importance.

Simulating the effect of flowering time on maize individual leaf area in contrasting environmental scenarios.

The quality of yield prediction is linked to that of leaf area. We first analysed the consequences of flowering time and environmental conditions on the area of individual leaves in 127 genotypes presenting contrasting flowering times in fields of Europe, Mexico, and Kenya. Flowering time was the strongest determinant of leaf area. Combined with a detailed field experiment, this experiment showed a large effect of flowering time on the final leaf number and on the distribution of leaf growth rate and growth duration along leaf ranks, in terms of both length and width. Equations with a limited number of genetic parameters predicted the beginning, end, and maximum growth rate (length and width) for each leaf rank. The genotype-specific environmental effects were analysed with datasets in phenotyping platforms that assessed the effects (i) of the amount of intercepted light on leaf width, and (ii) of temperature, evaporative demand, and soil water potential on leaf elongation rate. The resulting model was successfully tested for 31 hybrids in 15 European and Mexican fields. It potentially allows prediction of the vertical distribution of leaf area of a large number of genotypes in contrasting field conditions, based on phenomics and on sensor networks.

Large-scale genome-wide association study reveals that drought-induced lodging in grain sorghum is associated with plant height and traits linked to carbon remobilisation.

KEY MESSAGE: We detected 213 lodging QTLs and demonstrated that drought-induced stem lodging in grain sorghum is substantially associated with stay-green and plant height suggesting a critical role of carbon remobilisation. Sorghum is generally grown in water limited conditions and often lodges under post-anthesis drought, which reduces yield and quality. Due to its complexity, our understanding on the genetic control of lodging is very limited. We dissected the genetic architecture of lodging in grain sorghum through genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 2308 unique hybrids grown in 17 Australian sorghum trials over 3 years. The GWAS detected 213 QTLs, the majority of which showed a significant association with leaf senescence and plant height (72% and 71%, respectively). Only 16 lodging QTLs were not associated with either leaf senescence or plant height. The high incidence of multi-trait association for the lodging QTLs indicates that lodging in grain sorghum is mainly associated with plant height and traits linked to carbohydrate remobilisation. This result supported the selection for stay-green (delayed leaf senescence) to reduce lodging susceptibility, rather than selection for short stature and lodging resistance per se, which likely reduces yield. Additionally, our data suggested a protective effect of stay-green on weakening the association between lodging susceptibility and plant height. Our study also showed that lodging resistance might be improved by selection for stem composition but was unlikely to be improved by selection for classical resistance to stalk rots.

Soil water capture trends over 50 years of single-cross maize (Zea mays L.) breeding in the US corn-belt.

Breeders have successfully improved maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield for the conditions of the US corn-belt over the past 80 years, with the past 50 years utilizing single-cross hybrids. Long-term improvement for grain yield under water-limited conditions has also been reported. Grain yield under water-limited conditions depends on water use, water use efficiency, and harvest index. It has been hypothesized that long-term genetic gain for yield could be due, in part, to increased water capture from the soil. This hypothesis was tested using a set of elite single-cross hybrids that were released by DuPont Pioneer between 1963 and 2009. Eighteen hybrids were grown in the field during 2010 and 2011 growing seasons at Woodland, CA, USA. Crops grew predominantly on stored soil water and drought stress increased as the season progressed. Soil water content was measured to 300cm depth throughout the growing season. Significant water extraction occurred to a depth of 240-300cm and seasonal water use was calculated from the change in soil water over this rooting zone. Grain yield increased significantly with year of commercialization, but no such trend was observed for total water extraction. Therefore, the measured genetic gain for yield for the period represented by this set of hybrids must be related to either increased efficiency of water use or increased carbon partitioning to the grain, rather than increased soil water uptake.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in northeast Australia.

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here, we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation-use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than that for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat.