RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To simulate the different prevalence of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Beijing as the spreading and the outbreak city and analyze the response capacity of its medical resources of fever clinics, and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing the spatial layout in Beijing under severe epidemics. METHODS: The study obtained epidemiological indicators for COVID-19, factors about medical resources and population movement as parameters for the SEIR model and utilized the model to predict the maximum number of infections on a single day at different control levels in Beijing, simulated as an epidemic spreading city and an epidemic outbreak city respectively. The modified two-step floating catchment area method under ArcGIS 10.6 environment was used to analyze spatial accessibility to fever clinics services for the patients in Beijing. RESULTS: According to the results of the SEIR model, the highest number of infections in a single day in Beijing simulated as an epidemic spreading city at low, medium and high levels of prevention and control were 8 514, 183, and 68 cases, the highest number of infections in a single day in Beijing simulated as an outbreak city was 22 803, 10 868 and 3 725 cases, respectively. The following result showed that Beijing was simulated as an epidemic spreading city: among the 585 communities in Beijing, under the low level of prevention and control, there were 17 communities (2.91%) with excellent accessibility to fever clinics, and that of 41 communities (7.01%) with fever clinics was good. Spatial accessibility of fever clinics in 56 communities (9.57%) was ranked average, and 62 communities' (10.60%) accessibility was fair and 409 communities (69.91%) had poor accessibility; at the medium level of prevention and control, only the west region of Fangshan District and Mentougou District, the north region of Yanqing District, Huairou District and Miyun District had poor accessibility; under the high level of prevention and control, 559 communities' (95.56%) had excellent accessibility. The accessibility in 24 communities (4.10%) was good and in 2 communities (0.34%) was average. In brief, the existing fever clinics could meet the common demand. Beijing was simulated as an outbreak city: under the low level of prevention and control, only 1 community (0.17%) had excellent accessibility to fever clinics, and 5 communities (0.86%) had good accessibility. The accessibility of fever clinics in 10 communities (1.71%) was average and in 12 communities (2.05%) was fair. The accessibility of fever clinics in 557 communities (95.21%), nearly all areas of Beijing, was poor; under the middle and high level of prevention and control, the accessibility of ecological conservation areas was also relatively poor. CONCLUSION: The distribution of fever clinic resources in Beijing is uneven. When Beijing is simulated as an epidemic spreading city: under the high level of prevention and control, the number of fever clinics can be appropriately reduced to avoid cross-infection; at the medium level of prevention and control, the fever clinics can basically meet the needs of patients with fever in Beijing, but the accessibility of fever clinics in ecological conservation areas is insufficient, and priority should be given to the construction of fever clinics in public hospitals above the second level in the ecological conservation areas. When the level of prevention and control is low, the accessibility of fever clinics in ecological conservation areas is poor. Priority should be given to the construction of fever clinics in ecological conservation areas, and temporary fever sentinels can be established to relieve the pressure of fever clinics. When Beijing is simulated as an outbreak city and has low prevention and control, due to a large number of infections, it is necessary to upgrade the prevention and control level to reduce the flow of people to curb the development of the epidemic.
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COVID-19 , Pequim , Área Programática de Saúde , China/epidemiologia , Cidades , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
Objective: To understand the research progresses of economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies both at home and abroad, and provide reference for the economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies using real word data in China. Methods: Literature retrieval was conducted for related papers published from January, 2020 to December, 2021 in Chinese and English databases, including the economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination, and the results of the related literatures were narratively integrated. Results: A total of 16 English literatures (including 3 reviews) were included, and it was found that the COVID-19 vaccination was cost-effective or cost-saving regardless of the vaccine types, while the cost-effectiveness in different population and under different vaccination dose strategies varied due to vaccine efficacy, vaccine price, duration of natural immunity, duration of vaccination campaign, vaccine supply, and vaccination pace. Conclusions: China lacks suitable evidences of economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies based on real-world data in the context of long-term epidemic. Therefore, further researches of suitable strategies of booster COVID-19 vaccination are needed.
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Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , China/epidemiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , VacinaçãoRESUMO
Objective: To understand the research progresses of economic evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) both at home and abroad, and provide reference for economic evaluation of NPIs using real-world data in China. Methods: The literature retrieval was conducted by searching Chinese and English databases to indude papers about economic evaluation of NPIs and integrated NPIs published from January, 2020 to December, 2021, and the results were analyzed comprehensively. Results: A total of 30 Chinese and English literatures about economic evaluation of NPIs for COVID-19 prevention and control were included; including 7 papers about nucleic acid and testing and screening, 6 papers about individual prevention and protection measures, 12 papers about integrated implementation of individual prevention and protection, social distancing, nucleic acid or antigen testing, community screening and symptom screening, as well as close contact tracing and isolation/quarantine, and 5 papers about contain strategies, such as lockdown. This study found that personal protection, social distancing, and testing-tracing-isolation measures were cost-effective; however, different combinations of NPIs might lead to different results. Moreover, the cost of lockdown was high, which might cause huge economic burden. Conclusions: Most NPIs are cost-effective except lockdown, while the cost-effectiveness of the integrations of NPIs at different levels and in different scenarios needs to be further evaluated. It is necessary to carry out economic evaluation of integrated NPIs and the combination of NPIs with other interventions, such as vaccination and medication, based on real-world settings in China.