A novel model for predicting prognosis and response to immunotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients.

Blood-based biomarkers of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) response in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) are lacking, so it is necessary to identify biomarkers to select NPC patients who will benefit most or least from ICIs. The absolute values of lymphocyte subpopulations, biochemical indexes, and blood routine tests were determined before ICIs-based treatments in the training cohort (n = 130). Then, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) Cox regression analysis was developed to construct a prediction model. The performances of the prediction model were compared to TNM stage, treatment, and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA using the concordance index (C-index). Progression-free survival (PFS) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curve. Other 63 patients were used for validation cohort. The novel model composed of histologic subtypes, CD19+ B cells, natural killer (NK) cells, regulatory T cells, red blood cells (RBC), AST/ALT ratio (SLR), apolipoprotein B (Apo B), and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH). The C-index of this model was 0.784 in the training cohort and 0.735 in the validation cohort. K-M survival curve showed patients with high-risk scores had shorter PFS compared to the low-risk groups. For predicting immune therapy responses, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassifcation improvement index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) of this model showed better predictive ability compared to EBV DNA. In this study, we constructed a novel model for prognostic prediction and immunotherapeutic response prediction in NPC patients, which may provide clinical assistance in selecting those patients who are likely to gain long-lasting clinical benefits to anti-PD-1 therapy.

Machine learning models for predicting of PD-1 treatment efficacy in Pan-cancer patients based on routine hematologic and biochemical parameters.

Immune checkpoint blockade therapy targeting the programmed death-1(PD-1) pathway has shown remarkable efficacy and durable response in patients with various cancer types. Early prediction of therapeutic efficacy is important for optimizing treatment plans and avoiding potential side effects. In this work, we developed an efficient machine learning prediction method using routine hematologic and biochemical parameters to predict the efficacy of PD-1 combination treatment in Pan-Cancer patients. A total of 431 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma, esophageal cancer and lung cancer who underwent PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor combination therapy were included in this study. Patients were divided into two groups: progressive disease (PD) and disease control (DC) groups. Hematologic and biochemical parameters were collected before and at the third week of PD-1 therapy. Six machine learning models were developed and trained to predict the efficacy of PD-1 combination therapy at 8-12 weeks. Analysis of 57 blood biomarkers before and after three weeks of PD-1 combination therapy through statistical analysis, heatmaps, and principal component analysis did not accurately predict treatment outcome. However, with machine learning models, both the AdaBoost classifier and GBDT demonstrated high levels of prediction efficiency, with clinically acceptable AUC values exceeding 0.7. The AdaBoost classifier exhibited the highest performance among the 6 machine learning models, with a sensitivity of 0.85 and a specificity of 0.79. Our study demonstrated the potential of machine learning to predict the efficacy of PD-1 combination therapy based on changes in hematologic and biochemical parameters.

Post treatment NLR is a predictor of response to immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In view of the fact that peripheral blood parameters have been reported as predictors of immunotherapy to various cancers, this study aimed to determine the predictors of response to anti-programmed death-1 (anti-PD-1) therapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) from peripheral blood parameters. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted to investigate the predictive value of peripheral blood parameters including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) in the response to anti-PD-1 antibody treatment. 119 ESCC patients receiving combined treatment including anti-PD-1 antibody were enrolled in this study. RESULTS: The median progression-free survival (PFS) of all ESCC patients was 3.73 months. PFS rate in ESCC patients with low NLR at 6 weeks post treatment was higher than patients with high NLR (HR = 2.097, 95% CI 0.996-4.417, P = 0.027). However, PFS rate in ESCC patients with low NLR at baseline (HR = 1.060, 95% CI 0.524-2.146, P = 0.869) or 3 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.293, 95% CI 0.628-2.663, P = 0.459) was comparable with high NLR. And no statistically different was found in PFS rate between low PLR and high PLR at baseline (HR = 0.786, 95% CI 0.389-1.589, P = 0.469), 3 weeks post treatment (HR = 0.767, 95% CI 0.379-1.552, P = 0.452) or 6 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.272, 95% CI 0.624-2.594, P = 0.488) in ESCC patients. PFS rate was also comparable between low MLR and high MLR at baseline (HR = 0.826, 95% CI 0.408-1.670, P = 0.587), 3 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.209, 95% CI 0.590-2.475, P = 0.580) or 6 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.199, 95% CI 0.586-2.454, P = 0.596). PFS rate was similar between patients with low SII and high SII at baseline (HR = 1.120, 95% CI 0.554-2.264, P = 0.749), 3 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.022, 95% CI 0.500-2.089, P = 0.951) and 6 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.759, 95% CI 0.851-3.635, P = 0.097). CONCLUSIONS: NLR at 6 weeks post treatment is a predictor of the response to anti-PD-1 treatment in patients with ESCC.

Dynamic serum biomarkers to predict the efficacy of PD-1 in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of effective treatments for recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (RM-NPC). Furthermore, the response rate of NPC patients to programmed death 1 (PD-1) inhibitors is approximately 20% to 30%. Thus, we aimed to explore reliable and minimally invasive prognostic indicators to predict the efficacy of PD-1 inhibitors combination therapy in RM-NPC. METHODS: The serum markers of 160 RM-NPC patients were measured before and three weeks after the first anti-PD-1 treatment. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression was carried out to select dynamic serum indicators and construct a prediction model. Furthermore, we carried out univariate, multivariate, nomogram and survival analyses to identify independent prognostic factors that were associated with 1-year progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS: Based on two markers that were screened by Lasso logistic regression, we constructed a risk score prediction model for the prediction of anti-PD-1 efficacy at 8-12 weeks with an AUC of 0.737 in the training cohort and 0.723 in the validation cohort. Risk score and metastases were included in the nomogram, and the Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated that the high-risk group has shorter PFS compared to the low-risk group. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for PFS is higher than that of the TNM stage in the training and validation cohort. CONCLUSION: We proposed a strategy to monitor dynamic changes in the biochemistry markers and emphasized their importance as potential prognostic biomarkers for the treatment of advanced NPC treated with PD-1 inhibitors. Our risk score prediction model was based on the dynamic change of LDH and AST/ALT, which has predictive and prognostic value for NPC patients who were treated with PD-1 inhibitors.

Fecal CEA Has an Advantage in the Diagnosis of Colorectal Cancer at Early Stage.

PURPOSE: Serum carcinoembryonic antigen (SCEA) level is often measured in patients with CRC but suffers from poor sensitivity and specificity as a diagnostic biomarker. CEA is more abundant in stool than in serum, but it has not been widely studied. This study aimed to elucidate the efficacy of fecal CEA (FCEA) as a potential non-invasive biomarker for early diagnosis of CRC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the determination of FCEA and SCEA levels by electrochemiluminescence. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of FCEA and SCEA levels in early-stage CRC patients and healthy controls using ROC curve. RESULTS: A total of 298 people were included: 115 patients with CRC, 35 patients with adenomatous polyp (APC), 46 patients with non-gastrointestinal cancer (NGC), and 102 healthy controls (HC). The FCEA concentrations in CRC and APC patients were significantly higher than that of NGC and HC, and this is different from SCEA expression in APC and NGC. As a diagnostic biomarker of CRC, FCEA had significantly larger AUC compared with SCEA (.802 vs .735, P < .001). For identifying early-stage colorectal cancer, FCEA showed better diagnostic efficacy (AUC: .831) than SCEA (AUC: .750), and the combination of the 2 biomarkers was even higher (AUC: .896). The sensitivity of FCEA was higher than that of SCEA (78.7% vs 29.8%). When SCEA was negative, 80.3% of CRC and 54.6% of APC cases could be identified by FCEA. CONCLUSION: Compared with SCEA, FCEA has more advantages in the diagnosis of the early stage of colorectal cancer and adenomatous polyps.

Evaluation of 2 Commercially Systems for Detection of Serum Squamous Cell Carcinoma Antigen in Pan Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: This study compared the analytical performance of the Elecsys 602 (Roche Diagnostics) system with the I2000 (Abbott laboratories) system for the quantitative measurement of squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCCA) to assess its role as an indicator in pan squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS: 435 serum samples included pan squamous cell cancer group (n = 318) and healthy subjects (n = 52) and non-squamous cell group (n = 41) and benign diseases group (n = 24) were measured by 2 systems and compared. RESULTS: The within-run precision coefficient of variation (CV) for Abbott and Roche systems were 3.34-4.88% and 0.95 -1.96%, and the total precision CV were 2.89-9.48% and 3.97-5.38%, respectively. Good correlation was showed in Abbott and Roche systems (slopes = 0.749, r = 0.9658). Serum SCCA in the groups of nasopharyngeal carcinomas, lung squamous cell carcinoma, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, bladder cancer and cervical squamous cell carcinoma under the curve area (AUC) was more than 0.5, while the AUC in the non- nasopharyngeal carcinomas head and neck squamous cell carcinoma was less than 0.5. The AUC of 2 systems was statistically different in lung squamous cell carcinoma and nasopharyngeal carcinomas (P < 0.05). The levels of SCCA of 2 systems were similarities in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma(stage IV vs. stage 0a-II)and bladder cancer(stage I vs. stage Oa)and cervical squamous cell carcinoma(stage IIB-III vs. stage I-IIA), which advanced stage had higher level of SCCA than early stage. But the SCCA levels of 2 systems were inconsistent in bladder cancer (stage II-IV vs. stage Oa in Abbott), head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (stage IV vs. stage Oa-I in the Roche) and lung squamous cell carcinoma (stage III vs. stage I-II in the Roche). (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: 2 systems correlated well in SCCA detection of squamous cell carcinoma, but there were individual differences. Serum SCCA may also contribute to the diagnosis of bladder cancer.

Novel Prognostic Scores Based on Plasma Prothrombin Time and Fibrinogen Levels in Patients With AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Noninvasive tools for the prognosis of α-fetoprotein negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are urgently needed. The present study proposed a prognostic system based on preoperative plasma prothrombin time and fibrinogen (PT/Fbg system). With respect to α-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative HCC, we compared the prognostic value in PT/Fbg system, Glasgow Prognostic Score, and aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio. The present study retrospectively analyzed patient characteristics, clinicopathological factors, and the level of pretreatment biomarkers in 628 patients with HCC. Patients with increased PT and Fbg levels were allocated a score of 2, patients with only one of these abnormalities were assigned score 1, and patients with neither of these abnormalities were allocated a score of 0. The following distributions of the PT/Fbg system scores were observed: 187 (29.78%) patients had a score of 0, 305 (30.65%) had a score of 1, and 134 (22.69%) patients had a preoperative score of 2. The prognostic significance of the PT/Fbg system was determined using univariate and multivariate Cox hazard analyses in AFP-negative HCC. Multivariate analysis revealed that patients with a higher PT/Fbg system exhibited worse overall survival (OS) than patients with a lower PT/Fbg system. Our study proposes preoperative evaluation of the plasma PT/Fbg system to predict the OS of patients with AFP-negative HCC.

A nomogram based on the SII3 and clinical indicators predicts survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with PD-1 inhibitors.

Numerous inflammatory indicators have been demonstrated to be strongly correlated with tumor prognosis. However, the association between inflammatory indicators and the prognosis of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) receiving treatment with programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) immunosuppressant monoclonal antibodies remains uncertain. Inflammatory indicators in peripheral blood were collected from 161 NPC patients at 3 weeks after initial PD-1 treatment. Through univariate and multivariate analyses, as well as nomogram and survival analyses, we aimed to identify independent prognostic factors related to 1-year progression-free survival (PFS). Subsequently, a prognostic nomogram was devised, and its predictive and discriminating abilities were assessed utilizing calibration curves and the concordance index. Our univariate and multivariate analyses indicated that age (P = .012), M stage (P < .001), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) during the third week following initial PD-1 treatment (SII3, P = .005) were independently correlated with the 1-year PFS of NPC patients after PD-1 treatment. Notably, we constructed a novel nomogram based on the SII3, age, and M stage. Importantly, utilizing the derived cutoff point from the nomogram, the high-risk group exhibited significantly shorter PFS than did the low-risk group (P < .001). Furthermore, the nomogram demonstrated a greater concordance index for PFS than did the tumor node metastasis stage within the entire cohort. We successfully developed a nomogram that integrates the SII3 and clinical markers to accurately predict the 1-year PFS of NPC patients receiving PD-1 inhibitor treatment.

Development of a Clinically Oriented Model to Predict Antitumor Effects after PD-1/PD-L1 Inhibitor Therapy.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have created an advanced shift in the treatment of lung cancer (LC), but the existing biomarkers were not in clinical and widespread use. The purpose of this study was to develop a new nomogram with immune factors used for monitoring the response to ICI therapy. LC patients with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors treatment were included in this analysis. The immune biomarkers and clinicopathological characteristic values at baseline were used to estimate the tumor response. The nomogram was based on the factors that were determined by univariate and multivariate Cox hazard analysis. For internal validation, bootstrapping with 1000 resamples was used. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Patients with lung metastasis (P = 0.010), higher baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) level (P < 0.001), lower baseline lymphocyte-monocyte (LMR) (P = 0.019), and lower CD3+CD8+ T cell count (P = 0.009) were significantly related to the tumor response. The above biomarkers were contained into the nomogram. The calibration plot for the probability of OS showed an optimal agreement between the actual observation and prediction by nomogram at 3 or 5 years after therapy. The C-index of nomogram for OS prediction was 0.804 (95% CI: 0.739-0.869). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. Moreover, patients were divided into two distinct risk groups for OS by the nomogram: low-risk group (OS: 17.27 months, 95% CI: 14.75-19.78) and high-risk group (OS: 6.11 months, 95% CI: 3.57-8.65), respectively. A nomogram constructed with lung metastasis baseline NLR, LMR, and CD3+CD8+ T cell count could be used to monitor and predict clinical benefit and prognosis in lung cancer patients within ICI therapy.

Heat Shock Protein 90α Provides an Effective and Novel Diagnosis Strategy for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated tumor occurring in southeastern Asia. Due to insidious onset, it is difficult to diagnose NPC from clinical symptoms. Thus, there is an urgent need for non-invasive, high-performance biomarkers to aid the clinical diagnosis of NPC. Heat shock protein 90α (HSP90α) is an important member of the heat shock protein family that significantly increases under stress conditions such as oxidation and tumors. This is the first investigation of the role of Hsp90α in the diagnosis and progress of NPC. METHODS: Plasma Hsp90α was detected by ELISA in 196 newly diagnosed NPC patients, 76 corresponding post-treatment NPC patients, 230 VCA-IgA-positive normal subjects and 106 healthy controls. RESULTS: (1) The level of Hsp90α in plasma of 196 NPC patients was (212.16 ± 144.32) ng/ml, which was significantly higher than that in VCA-IgA-positive normal subjects (68.12 ± 64.94 ng/ml, P < 0.001) and healthy controls (35.87 ± 17.47 ng/ml, P < 0.001); (2) the levels of Hsp90α in patients with NPC in the early stage (I + II), stage III and stage IV were significantly different (159.69 ± 117.12 pg/ml vs. 195.24 ± 126.38 pg/ml vs. 250.85 ± 164.66 pg/ml, P = 0.018 and P = 0.029, respectively). The level of Hsp90α in plasma in patients with metastasis of NPC and those without metastasis was significantly different (P < 0.001); (3) Hsp90α is closely related to EBV DNA levels, but not to the VCA-IgA titer and EA-IgA titer; (4) the levels of Hsp90α in plasma of patients with NPC before and after treatment were significantly different (212.16 ± 144.32 pg/ml vs. 62.36 ± 34.04 pg/ml, P < 0.001); (5) the ROC curves demonstrated that the sensitivity of plasma Hsp90α in distinguishing NPC patients from healthy controls was 74.50% and the specificity was 99.10% (AUC = 0.931, 95% CI 0.903-0.958). CONCLUSION: The study found that the plasma HSP90α level is closely related to the clinical stage, metastasis and therapeutic effect of NPC. HSP90α may serve as a new biomarker for diagnosis and treatment of NPC.

Novel prognostic scores based on serum ferritin/globulin ratio in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The level of ferritin has been shown to be associated with the prognosis of various tumors. In this study, we proposed prognostic indicator, named ferritin/globulin ratio (FGR), and to evaluate the important value in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: A total of 472 HCC patients and 219 healthy controls were concluded in our retrospective study. The clinical characteristics were analyzed in these patients. The optimal cutoff value of the prognostic factors (α-fetoprotein, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, ferritin, globulin and FGR) were determined by using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and then analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox hazard models to evaluate the prognostic significance. RESULTS: Serum ferritin, globulin and FGR levels were significantly higher in HCC patients than in healthy controls. Multivariate analysis showed that FGR was a significant and independent risk factor OS (HR =1.575; 95% CI: 1.122-2.212; P=0.009) and DFS (HR =1.569; 95% CI: 1.117-2.204; P=0.009) in whole patients. Furthermore, we also classified the data according to α-fetoprotein (AFP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST), highly significant differences of FGR were observed between the two groups in OS and DFS. High FGR levels were associated with poor OS and DFS in HCC patients. CONCLUSIONS: The serum FGR levels may serve as a significant predictor of prognosis in HCC patients.

The Survival Advantage of Females at Premenopausal Age Is Race Dependent in Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: A female prognostic advantage in younger individuals has been demonstrated in various cancers. Several large-scale analyses based on different racial backgrounds have reported inconsistent results in colorectal cancer. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of sex and age in patients with colorectal cancer of different ethnic groups. METHODS: We identified 71,812 eligible patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. According to age at diagnosis, the patients were categorized into premenopausal age (≤45 yrs), menopausal age (46-54 yrs), and postmenopausal age (≥55 yrs) subgroups for further analysis. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis identified the female survival advantage to be significant in the premenopausal age subgroup (P = 0.002, HR (95% CI): 0.73 (0.60-0.89)), diminished in the menopausal age subgroup (P = 0.09), and absent in the postmenopausal age subgroup (P = 0.96). Furthermore, the female survival advantage at premenopausal age was significant only in white patients (P = 0.001, HR (95% CI): 0.68 (0.54-0.87)) and not in either American Indian/Alaska Native or Asian or Pacific Islander patients. There was a trend of better survival of females in black patients (P = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: Sex was a major prognostic factor in colorectal cancer patients, especially premenopausal women, and the difference was also associated with race.