Spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth in China, 1990-2020: A systematic review and modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the long-term trends of preterm birth rates in China and their geographic variation by province. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth rates in China by province from 1990 to 2020. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, CNKI, WANFANG and VIP from January 1990 to September 2023. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Studies that provided data on preterm births in China after 1990 were included. Data were extracted following the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. SYNTHESIS: We assessed the quality of each survey using a 9-point checklist. We estimated the annual preterm birth risk by province using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models considering potential socioeconomic, environmental, and sanitary predictors. RESULTS: Based on 634 survey data from 343 included studies, we found a gradual increase in the preterm birth risk in most provinces in China since 1990, with an average annual increase of 0.7% nationally. However, the preterm birth rates in Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Fujian Province showed a decline, while those in Sichuan were quite stable since 1990. In 2020, the estimates of preterm birth rates ranged from 2.9% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2.1, 3.8) in Inner Mongolia to 8.5% (95% BCI 6.6, 10.9) in Jiangxi, with the national estimate of 5.9% (95% BCI 4.3, 8.1). Specifically, some provinces were identified as high-risk provinces for either consistently high preterm birth rates (e.g. Jiangxi) or relatively large increases (e.g. Shanxi) since 1990. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides annual information on the preterm birth risk in China since 1990 and identifies high-risk provinces to assist in targeted control and intervention for this health issue.

Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention. CONCLUSION: Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE[30-70].

Effects of family multi-generational relationship on multimorbidity and healthy life expectancy for second generations: insight from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVE: In the context of aging, Chinese families consisting of more than three generations (grandparents, parents, children) are the norm. The second generation (parents) and other family members may establish a downward (contact only with children) or two-way multi-generational relationship (contact with children and grandparents). These multi-generational relationships may have the potential effect on multimorbidity burden and healthy life expectancy in the second generation, but less is known about the direction and intensity of this effect. This study aims to explore this potential effect. METHODS: We obtained longitudinal data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018, which included 6,768 people. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between multi-generational relationships and the number of multimorbidity. The Markov multi-state transition model was used to analyze the relationship between multi-generational relationships and the severity of multimorbidity. The multistate life table was used to calculate healthy life expectancy for different multi-generational relationships. RESULTS: The risk of multimorbidity in two-way multi-generational relationship was 0.830 (95% CIs: 0.715, 0.963) times higher than that in downward multi-generational relationship. For mild multimorbidity burden, downward and two-way multi-generational relationship may prevent aggravation of burden. For severe multimorbidity burden, two-way multi-generational relationship may aggravate the burden. Compared with two-way multi-generational relationship, the second generations with downward multi-generational relationship has a higher healthy life expectancy at all ages. CONCLUSION: In Chinese families with more than three generations, the second generations with severe multimorbidity burden may aggravate the condition by providing support to elderly grandparents, and the support provided by offspring to the second generations plays a vital positive role in improving the quality of life and narrowing the gap between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy.

Developing and validating a Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index for middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an index to quantify the multimorbidity burden in Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. METHODS: We included 20,035 individuals aged 45 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and 19,297 individuals aged 65 and older from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Health outcomes of physical functioning (PF), basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL and IADL) and mortality were obtained. Based on self-reported disease status, we calculated five commonly used western multimorbidity indexes for CHARLS baseline participants. The one that predicted the health outcomes the best was selected and then modified through a linear mixed model using the repeated individual data in CHARLS. The performance of the modified index was internally and externally evaluated with CHARLS and CLHLS data. RESULTS: The multimorbidity-weighted index (MWI) performed the best among the five indexes. In the modified Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index (CMWI), the weights of the diseases varied greatly (range 0.2-5.1). The top three diseases with the highest impact were stroke, memory-related diseases and cancer, corresponding to weights of 5.1, 4.3 and 3.4, respectively. Compared with the MWI, the CMWI showed better model fits for PF and IADL with larger R2 and smaller Akaike information criterion, and comparable prediction performances for ADL, IADL and mortality (e.g. the same predictive accuracy of 0.80 for ADL disability). CONCLUSION: The CMWI is an adequate index to quantify the multimorbidity burden for Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. It can be directly computed via disease status examined in regular community health check-ups to facilitate health management.

A clinical model and nomogram for early prediction of gestational diabetes based on common maternal demographics and routine clinical parameters.

AIM: We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on the common maternal demographics and routine clinical variables in Chinese population. METHODS: Individual information was collected from December 2018 to October 2019 by a pretested questionnaire on demographics, medical and family history, and lifestyle factors. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to establish a predictive model for GDM by variables in pre- and early pregnancy. The consistency and discriminative validity of the model were evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing and ROC curve analysis. Internal validation was appraised by fivefold cross-validation. Clinical utility was assessed by decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Total 3263 pregnant women were included with 17.2% prevalence of GDM. The model equation was: LogitP = -11.432 + 0.065 × maternal age (years) + 0.061 × pre-pregnancy BMI (kg/m2 ) + 0.055 × weight gain in early pregnancy (kg) + 0.872 × history of GDM + 0.336 × first-degree family history of diabetes +0.213 × sex hormone usages during pre- or early pregnancy + 1.089 × fasting glucose (mmol/L) + 0.409 × triglycerides (mmol/L) + 0.082 × white blood cell count (109/L) + 0.669 × positive urinary glucose. Homer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing indicated a good consistency between predictive and actual data (p = 0.586). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.720 (95% CI: 0.697 ~ 0.744). Cross-validation suggested a good internal validity of the model. A nomogram has been made to establish an easy to use scoring system for clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model of GDM exhibited well acceptable predictive ability, discriminative performance, and clinical utilities. The project was registered in clinicaltrial.gov.com with identifier of NCT03922087.

Associations Between Affective States and Sexual and Health Status Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: Exploratory Study Using Social Media Data.

BACKGROUND: Affective states, including sentiment and emotion, are critical determinants of health. However, few studies among men who have sex with men (MSM) have examined sentiment and emotion specifically using real-time social media technologies. Moreover, the explorations on their associations with sexual and health status among MSM are limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to understand and examine the associations of affective states with sexual behaviors and health status among MSM using public data from the Blued (Blued International Inc) app. METHODS: A total of 843,745 public postings of 377,610 MSM users located in Guangdong were saved from the Blued app by automatic screen capture. Positive affect, negative affect, sexual behaviors, and health status were measured using the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count. Emotions, including joy, sadness, anger, fear, and disgust, were measured using the Weibo Basic Mood Lexicon. A positive sentiment score and a positive emotion score were also calculated. Univariate and multivariate linear regression models on the basis of a permutation test were used to assess the associations of affective states with sexual behaviors and health status. RESULTS: A total of 5871 active MSM users and their 477,374 postings were finally selected. Both positive affect and positive emotions (eg, joy) peaked between 7 AM and 9 AM. Negative affect and negative emotions (eg, sadness and disgust) peaked between 2 AM and 4 AM. During that time, 25.1% (97/387) of negative postings were related to health and 13.4% (52/387) of negative postings were related to seeking social support. A multivariate analysis showed that the MSM who were more likely to post sexual behaviors were more likely to express positive affect (beta=0.3107; P<.001) and positive emotions (joy: beta=0.027; P<.001), as well as negative emotions (sadness: beta=0.0443; P<.001 and disgust: beta=0.0256; P<.001). They also had a higher positive sentiment score (beta=0.2947; P<.001) and a higher positive emotion score (beta=0.1612; P<.001). The MSM who were more likely to post their health status were more likely to express negative affect (beta=0.8088; P<.001) and negative emotions, including sadness (beta=0.0705; P<.001), anger (beta=0.0058; P<.001), fear (beta=0.0052; P<.001), and disgust (beta=0.3065; P<.001), and less likely to express positive affect (beta=-0.0224; P=.02). In addition, they had a lower positive sentiment score (beta=-0.8306; P<.001) and a lower positive emotion score (beta=-0.3743; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: The MSM social media community mainly expressed their positive affect in the early morning and negative affect after midnight. Positive affective states were associated with being sexually active, whereas negative affective states were associated with health problems, mostly about mental health. Our finding suggests the potential to deliver different health-related intervention strategies (eg, psychological counseling and safe sex promotion) on a social media app according to the affective states of MSM in real time.

Correction: Associations Between Affective States and Sexual and Health Status Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: Exploratory Study Using Social Media Data.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/13201.].

The relationship between psychosocial risk factors, burnout and quality of life among primary healthcare workers in rural Guangdong province: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers are often exposed to stressful working conditions at work which affect their quality of life. The study investigated the relationship between psychosocial risk factors, stress, burnout, and quality of life among primary healthcare workers in general medical practice in Qingyuan and Chaozhou cities in Guangdong province. METHOD: The cross-sectional study was conducted in 108 primary health facilities including 36 community health centers (CHCs) across two developing cities in Guangdong province. A total of 873 healthcare workers completed the questionnaires. Quality of life was evaluated using The World Health Organization Quality of Life Questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF) and psychological risk factors were evaluated by the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ). General quality of life and the quality of life domains were transformed into a score range from minimum 0 to 100 maximum. Higher scores indicated better quality of life and vice versa. Significant associations were verified using multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Poor quality of life was observed in 74.6% of healthcare workers surveyed. General poor quality of life was significantly higher among workers who reported higher burnout (Beta = - 0.331, p < 0.001). In addition, workers with high levels of burnout, unmarried workers and female workers had a higher possibility of physical health. A greater risk of poor psychological health was observed among workers with high burnout, poor sense of community and those with lower educational levels. Workers who lacked social support, those with fewer possibilities for development had increased probability of poor quality of life in the social domain. Poor quality of life in the environmental domain was observed among workers who were dissatisfied with their jobs and workers with low salaries. CONCLUSIONS: Primary healthcare workers in developing cities in China have a highly demanding and strained working environment and poor quality of life. Reducing job stress and improving work conditions may ultimately improve the well-being of primary healthcare workers.

Intimate relationship characteristics as determinants of HIV risk among men who have sex with regular male sex partners: a cross-sectional study in Guangzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: China faces a serious HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM), and a large proportion of new infections are attributed to their regular male sex partners (RP). The objective of this study was to investigate the association between intimate relationship characteristics and HIV-related behaviors among MSM with RP in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: A convenience-sampling method was used in data collection. A total of 608 MSM were screened, of whom 406 HIV negative MSM with at least one RP in the past six months were used for data analysis. Three-step logistic regressions were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The prevalence of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with regular male sex partners, non-regular male sex partners, and concurrent UAI in the past six months was 53.9%, 23.6%, 20.7%, respectively. Variables associated with UAI with regular male sex partners included expectations for this relationship (adjusted odds ratio in multiple forward stepwise logistic regression, ORm = 1.66) and open communication about the sexual relationship (ORm = 1.79), while expectations for the relationship (ORm = 0.46 to 0.54) and conflicts of interest (ORm = 5.46 to 5.97) were associated with concurrent UAI and UAI with non-regular male sex partners. CONCLUSION: Intimate relationship characteristics were related to HIV-related risk behaviors. Future HIV prevention interventions should take MSM couples into consideration, include a focus on the quality of their intimate relationships, and encourage open communication about their sexual relationships.

Geographical heterogeneity and inequality of access to improved drinking water supply and sanitation in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Per United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, Nepal is aspiring to achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water and provide access to adequate and equitable sanitation for all by 2030. For these goals to be accomplished, it is important to understand the country's geographical heterogeneity and inequality of access to its drinking-water supply and sanitation (WSS) so that resource allocation and disease control can be optimized. We aimed 1) to estimate spatial heterogeneity of access to improved WSS among the overall Nepalese population at a high resolution; 2) to explore inequality within and between relevant Nepalese administrative levels; and 3) to identify the specific administrative areas in greatest need of policy attention. METHODS: We extracted cluster-sample data on the use of the water supply and sanitation that included 10,826 surveyed households from the 2011 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey, then used a Gaussian kernel density estimation with adaptive bandwidths to estimate the distribution of access to improved WSS conditions over a grid at 1 × 1 km. The Gini coefficient was calculated for the measurement of inequality in the distribution of improved WSS; the Theil L measure and Theil T index were applied to account for the decomposition of inequality. RESULTS: 57% of Nepalese had access to improved sanitation (range: 18.1% in Mahottari to 100% in Kathmandu) and 92% to drinking-water (range: 41.7% in Doti to 100% in Bara). The most unequal districts in Gini coefficient among improved sanitation were Saptari, Sindhuli, Banke, Bajura and Achham (range: 0.276 to 0.316); and Sankhuwasabha, Arghakhanchi, Gulmi, Bhojpur, Kathmandu (range: 0.110 to 0.137) among improved drinking-water. Both the Theil L and Theil T showed that within-province inequality was substantially greater than between-province inequality; while within-district inequality was less than between-district inequality. The inequality of several districts was higher than what is calculated by regression of the Gini coefficient and our estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed considerable geographical heterogeneity and inequality not evidenced in previous national statistics. Our findings may be useful in prioritizing resources to reduce inequality and expand the coverage of improved water supply and sanitation in Nepal.

Effects of in utero and Postnatal Exposure to Secondhand Smoke on Lung Function by Gender and Asthma Status: The Seven Northeastern Cities (SNEC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Little information exists on whether gender or asthma status modifies the effects of secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure on lung function. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether gender or asthma status modifies the association of SHS exposure with lung function. METHODS: A total of 6,740 children (average 11.6 years) were recruited from 24 districts of 7 cities in northeast China in 2012. SHS exposure included exposure to environmental and maternal smoking both in utero and during early childhood (postnatal). Lung function was measured using electronic spirometers. Two-step regressions were used to analyze the association between SHS and lung function. RESULTS: In utero and postnatal exposure to SHS was independently associated with decreased lung function in both genders; however, this association was greater among males. For example, when exposed to maternal smoking during pregnancy, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for decreased forced vital capacity (FVC) was 6.46 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.58-16.17) among males, while only 2.16 (95% CI: 0.96-4.88) among females. More positive associations between SHS exposure and decreased lung function were detected among nonasthmatic compared with asthmatic children. Nonasthmatics had significantly larger deficits from in utero exposure to maternal smoking, which concerned decreased lung FVC function (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.28-5.21) and decreased lung forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) function (aOR = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.01-5.33). A similar pattern was also observed for the associations between SHS exposure and continuous pulmonary function test measurements. CONCLUSIONS: SHS exposure was associated with decreased lung function. Males and nonasthmatics seem to be more susceptible than their respective counterparts.

Temporal Trend in Lung Cancer Burden Attributed to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter in Guangzhou, China.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. METHODS: The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were obtained from the 'Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013' dataset at 0.1° ×0.1° spatial resolution. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated based on the information of mortality and incidence of lung cancer. Comparative risk analysis and integrated exposure-response function were used to estimate attributed disease burden. RESULTS: The population-weighted average concentration of PM2.5 was increased by 34.6% between 1990 and 2013, from 38.37 µg/m3 to 51.31 µg/m3. The lung cancer DALYs in both men and women were increased by 36.2% from 2005 to 2013. The PM2.5 attributed lung cancer DALYs increased from 12105.0 (8181.0 for males and 3924.0 for females) in 2005 to 16489.3 (11291.7 for males and 5197.6 for females) in 2013. An average of 23.1% lung cancer burden was attributable to PM2.5 pollution in 2013. CONCLUSION: PM2.5 has caused serious but under-appreciated public health burden in Guangzhou and the trend deteriorates. Effective strategies are needed to tackle this major public health problem.

The role of quality of care and attitude towards disability in the relationship between severity of disability and quality of life: findings from a cross-sectional survey among people with physical disability in China.

BACKGROUND: People with physical disability (PWPD) is the largest subgroup of people with disability (PWD) in China, but few studies have been conducted among this vulnerable population. The objective of this study was to investigate the level of quality of life (QoL), self-perceived quality of care and support (QOCS), severity of disability and personal attitude towards disability among people with physical disability in China, as well as to identify how QoL can be affected by severity of disability through QOCS and personal attitude towards disability among PWPD. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1,853 PWPD in Guangzhou, China. Data were collected on participants' QoL, QOCS, personal attitude towards disability and severity of disability. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the effects of the other variables on QoL. RESULTS: Even with a mild disability (mean score:1.72), relatively low levels of QoL (mean score: 2.65- 3.22) and QOCS (mean score: 2.95 to 3.28), as well as unfavorable personal attitude towards disability (mean score: 2.75 to 3.36) were identified among PWPD. According to SEM, we found that the influence of severity of physical disability on QoL is not only exerted directly, but is also indirectly through QOCS and their personal attitudes towards disability, with QOCS playing a more important mediating role than PWPD's attitudes towards their own disability. CONCLUSIONS: Unfavorable health status was identified among PWPD in China. Focusing on improvement of assistance and care services has the potential to substantially improve PWPD's QoL. Further research should focus on understanding the needs and their current state of health care of PWPD in China thus being able to develop better interventions for them.

Protective effectiveness of previous infection against subsequent SARS-Cov-2 infection: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The protective effectiveness provided by naturally acquired immunity against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection remain controversial. Objective: To systematically evaluate the protective effect of natural immunity against subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection with different variants. Methods: We searched for related studies published in seven databases before March 5, 2023. Eligible studies included in the analysis reported the risk of subsequent infection for groups with or without a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary outcome was the overall pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection/infection between the two groups. We also focused on the protective effectiveness of natural immunity against reinfection/infection with different SARS-CoV-2 variants. We used a random-effects model to pool the data, and obtained the bias-adjusted results using the trim-and-fill method. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the sources of heterogeneity. Sensitivity analysis was performed by excluding included studies one by one to evaluate the stability of the results. Results: We identified 40 eligible articles including more than 20 million individuals without the history of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. The bias-adjusted efficacy of naturally acquired antibodies against reinfection was estimated at 65% (pooled IRR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.26-0.47), with higher efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 cases (pooled IRR = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.08-0.26) than asymptomatic infection (pooled IRR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.29-0.54). Meta-regression revealed that SARS-CoV-2 variant was a statistically significant effect modifier, which explaining 46.40% of the variation in IRRs. For different SARS-CoV-2 variant, the pooled IRRs for the Alpha (pooled IRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.06-0.19), Delta (pooled IRR = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.15-0.24) and Omicron (pooled IRR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.42-0.87) variant were higher and higher. In other subgroup analyses, the pooled IRRs of SARS-CoV-2 infection were statistically various in different countries, publication year and the inclusion end time of population, with a significant difference (p = 0.02, p < 0.010 and p < 0.010), respectively. The risk of subsequent infection in the seropositive population appeared to increase slowly over time. Despite the heterogeneity in included studies, sensitivity analyses showed stable results. Conclusion: Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection provides protection against pre-omicron reinfection, but less against omicron. Ongoing viral mutation requires attention and prevention strategies, such as vaccine catch-up, in conjunction with multiple factors.

Violent behavior and the network properties of psychopathological symptoms and real-life functioning in patients with schizophrenia.

Objective: To assess the interplay among psychopathological symptoms and real-life functioning, and to further detect their influence with violent behavior in patient with schizophrenia. Methods: A sample of 1,664 patients with post-violence assessments and their propensity score-matched controls without violence from a disease registration report system of community mental health service in Guangdong, China, were studied by network analysis. Ising-Model was used to estimate networks of psychopathological symptoms and real-life functioning. Then, we tested whether network properties indicated the patterns of interaction were different between cases and controls, and calculated centrality indices of each node to identify the central nodes. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the difference of interaction patterns between pre-violence and post-violence assessments in violence cases. Results: Some nodes in the same domain were highly positive interrelations, while psychopathological symptoms were negatively related to real-life functioning in all networks. Many symptom-symptom connections and symptom-functioning connections were disconnected after the violence. The network density decreased from 23.53% to 12.42% without statistical significance (p = 0.338). The network structure, the global network strength, and the global clustering coefficient decreased significantly after the violence (p < 0.001, p = 0.019, and p = 0.045, respectively). Real-life functioning had a higher node strength. The strength of sleeping, lack of spontaneity and flow of conversation, and preoccupation were decreased in post-violence network of patients. Conclusion: The decreasing connectivity may indicate an increased risk of violence and early warning for detecting violence. Interventions and improving health state based on nodes with high strength might prevent violence in schizophrenia patients.

Using interrupted time series design to analyze changes in hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence during the declining incidence periods of 2008-2010 in China.

OBJECTIVE: To identify patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence in China during declining incidence periods of 2008, 2009, and 2010. METHODS: Reported HFMD cases over a period of 25 months were extracted from the National Disease Reporting System (NDRS) and analyzed. An interrupted time series (ITS) technique was used to detect changes in HFMD incidence rates in terms of level and slope between declining incidence periods of the three years. RESULTS: Over 3.58 million HFMD cases younger than 5 years were reported to the NDRS between May 1, 2008, and May 31, 2011. Males comprised 63.4% of the cases. ITS analyses demonstrated a significant increase in incidence rate level (P<0.0001) when comparing the current period with the previous period. There were significant changes in declining slopes when comparing 2010 to 2009, and 2010 to 2008 (all P<0.005), but not 2009 to 2008. CONCLUSION: Incremental changes in incidence rate level during the declining incidence periods of 2009 and 2010 can potentially be attributed to a few factors. The more steeply declining slope in 2010 compared with previous years could be ascribed to the implementation of more effective interventions and preventive strategies in 2010. Further investigation is required to examine this possibility.

The relationship between hospital work environment and nurse outcomes in Guangdong, China: a nurse questionnaire survey.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: This study examines the relationship between hospital work environments and job satisfaction, job-related burnout and intention to leave among nurses in Guangdong province, China. BACKGROUND: The nursing shortage is an urgent global problem and also of concern in China. Studies in Western countries have shown that better work environments are associated with higher nurse satisfaction and lower burnout, thereby improving retention and lowering turnover rates. However, there is little research on the relationship between nurse work environments and nurse outcomes in China. DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study. Survey data were collected from 1104 bedside nurses in 89 medical, surgical and intensive care units in 21 hospitals across the Guangdong province in China. METHODS: Stratified convenience sampling was used to select hospitals, and systematic sampling was used to select units. All staff nurses working on participating units were surveyed. The China Hospital Nurse Survey, including the Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index and Maslach Burnout Inventory, was employed to collect data from nurses. Statistical significance level was set at 0·05. RESULTS: Thirty-seven per cent of the nurses experienced high burnout, and 54% were dissatisfied with their jobs. Improving nurses' work environments from poor to better was associated with a 50% decrease in job dissatisfaction and a 33% decrease in job-related burnout among nurses. CONCLUSION: Burnout and job dissatisfaction are high among hospital nurses in Guangdong province, China. Better work environments for nurses were associated with decreased job dissatisfaction and job-related burnout, which may successfully address the nursing shortage in China. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: The findings of this study indicate that improving work environments is essential to deal with the nursing shortage; the findings provide motivation for nurse managers and policy makers to improve work environments of hospital nurses in China.

Measurement and projection of the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries, 1990-2050: A population-based study.

Background: Quantitative attribution of the burden of disease due to population aging is an important part of setting meaningful global health priorities. This study comprehensively examines the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries from 1990 to 2019, incorporates a comprehensive range of diseases, and projects the burden of disease due to population aging till 2050. Methods: We extracted data from 1990 to 2019 for 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We decomposed the change in disease burden into the contribution of the age structure of the population, population size, and age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates due to all other reasons. We used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to evaluate the effects of age on temporal trends, and then to predict the possible disease burden in 2050. Results: At the global level, the change in total DALYs associated with age structure, population size, and all other reasons is 27.4%, 16.8%, and 89.4% (absolute level of DALYs attributable to age structure: -15.20 million, 9.32 million, and -49.58 million) of the absolute level of DALYs gap between 2019 and 1990. The absolute level of DALYs changes attributable to age structure for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases were negative in all income groups from 1990 to 2019. For non-communicable diseases, the contribution was positive except in the low-income group. For injuries, the contribution was positive in lower-middle-income groups and low-income groups. By 2050, DALY rates decreased in all income groups, if compared to 2019. However, a total of 132 countries may see a gradual increase of all-cause DALYs attributable to population aging. Conclusions: The direction and intensity of the effects of population aging on the burden of disease vary by region and disease, with huge implications for global health in the future.

A Bayesian network model of new-onset diabetes in older Chinese: The Guangzhou biobank cohort study.

Background: Existing diabetes risk prediction models based on regression were limited in dealing with collinearity and complex interactions. Bayesian network (BN) model that considers interactions may provide additional information to predict risk and infer causation. Methods: BN model was constructed for new-onset diabetes using prospective data of 15,934 participants without diabetes at baseline [73% women; mean (standard deviation) age = 61.0 (6.9) years]. Participants were randomly assigned to a training (n = 12,748) set and a validation (n = 3,186) set. Model performances were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: During an average follow-up of 4.1 (interquartile range = 3.3-4.5) years, 1,302 (8.17%) participants developed diabetes. The constructed BN model showed the associations (direct, indirect, or no) among 24 risk factors, and only hypertension, impaired fasting glucose (IFG; fasting glucose of 5.6-6.9 mmol/L), and greater waist circumference (WC) were directly associated with new-onset diabetes. The risk prediction model showed that the post-test probability of developing diabetes in participants with hypertension, IFG, and greater WC was 27.5%, with AUC of 0.746 [95% confidence interval CI) = 0.732-0.760], sensitivity of 0.727 (95% CI = 0.703-0.752), and specificity of 0.660 (95% CI = 0.652-0.667). This prediction model appeared to perform better than a logistic regression model using the same three predictors (AUC = 0.734, 95% CI = 0.703-0.764, sensitivity = 0.604, and specificity = 0.745). Conclusions: We have first reported a BN model in predicting new-onset diabetes with the smallest number of factors among existing models in the literature. BN yielded a more comprehensive figure showing graphically the inter-relations for multiple factors with diabetes than existing regression models.

Changes in blood pressure and cardiovascular disease in middle-aged to older Chinese: the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Most studies on the associations of blood pressure (BP) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk were based on single or average BP levels. Knowledge on the association between BP trajectories and CVD in middle-aged individuals who are not on antihypertensive medication may inform the care of individuals in this group whose BPs are not controlled. METHODS: Eight thousand nine hundred and sixty-nine participants aged 50-70 years, without CVD at baseline and not taking antihypertensive medication throughout the study, were included. Four time-points data from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study were used to identify BP trajectories using latent class mixed model. Cox regression was used to investigate the association of BP trajectories with fatal and nonfatal CVD till April 2021. RESULTS: Three SBP trajectories were identified: 'low-slow-increase' characterized by SBP from 110 to 125 mmHg (86.5%); 'low-increase' from 110 to 150 mmHg (8.1%) and 'moderate-increase' from 125 to 155 mmHg (5.4%). Compared with the low-slow-increase group, the moderate-increase had the highest risk of CVD (hazard ratio = 1.76, 95% confidence interval = 1.34-2.29), ischemic heart disease (1.77, 1.01-3.09), myocardial infarction (3.52, 1.58-7.85), all strokes (1.88, 1.37-2.60), ischemic stroke (1.65, 1.10-2.49), haemorrhagic stroke (3.98, 1.30-12.12) and CVD mortality (2.41, 1.55-3.76). Higher risks of CVD (1.27, 1.01-1.61) and ischemic stroke (1.49, 1.07-2.09) in the low-increase group were also found. CONCLUSION: Most people between 50 and 70 years of age and not taking antihypertensive medication maintained a slow increase SBP trajectory over a follow-up period of approximately 7 years. However, those whose SBPs increased from low and moderate levels were associated with higher CVD risks.