Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Screening procedure to assess the impact of urban stormwater temperature to populations of brown trout in receiving water.

The discharge of urban stormwater may cause a sudden temperature increase in receiving waters that may be harmful to fish and other aquatic organisms. A screening procedure is proposed with temperature thresholds for the runoff from roofs and roads as well as for the receiving water system to protect brown trout from thermal damage. The stormwater temperature is calculated on the basis of a simple thermodynamic estimate for different latitudes. Only receiving waters with maximum daily mean temperatures of 22 degrees C (T1) are considered potential habitats for brown trout. The maximum temperature for a 1-h exposure time with a safety margin for 100% survival is 25 degrees C (T2), the sudden temperature change at the beginning of a rain event must not exceed 7 degrees C (T3), and fish-egg development requires the daily maximum temperature in winter to be below 12 degrees C (T4). Examples of stormwater runoff from roof or road surfaces from Switzerland validate our approach within +/-0.5 degrees C. Effects of runoff into receiving waters without detailed data can be predicted within +/-0.8 degrees C. With the restriction by T1, T2 seems not to be an acute problem at Swiss latitudes. T3 could play a role, especially if a large amount of runoff is discharged in small and rather cool rivers and streams. Finally, T4 deserves more attention than hitherto given. The proposed procedure may be a useful tool for assessing the influence of urban stormwater on the temperature of the receiving waters, particularly with regard to predicting the thermal impacts of urban or suburban runoff to populations of brown trout.