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1.
Ecography ; 42(6): 1175-1187, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31857742

RESUMO

Research on the structure of ecological networks suggests that a number of universal patterns exist. Historically, biotic specialization has been thought to increase towards the Equator. Yet, recent studies have challenged this view showing non-conclusive results. Most studies analysing the geographical variation in biotic specialization focus, however, only on the local scale. Little is known about how the geographical variation of network structure depends on the spatial scale of observation (i.e., from local to regional spatial scales). This should be remedied, as network structure changes as the spatial scale of observation changes, and the magnitude and shape of these changes can elucidate the mechanisms behind the geographical variation in biotic specialization. Here we analyse four facets of biotic specialization in host-parasitoid networks along gradients of climatic constancy, classifying the networks according to their spatial extension (local or regional). Namely, we analyse network connectance, consumer diet overlap, consumer diet breadth, and resource vulnerability at both local and regional scales along the gradients of both current climatic constancy and historical climatic change. While at the regional scale none of the climatic variables are associated to biotic specialization, at the local scale, network connectance, consumer diet overlap, and resource vulnerability decrease with current climatic constancy, whereas consumer generalism increases (i.e., broader diet breadths in tropical areas). Similar patterns are observed along the gradient of historical climatic change. We provide an explanation based on different beta-diversity for consumers and resources across the geographical gradients. Our results show that the geographical gradient of biotic specialization is not universal. It depends on both the facet of biotic specialization and the spatial scale of observation.

2.
Ecology ; 96(4): 1105-14, 2015 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26230030

RESUMO

Plant biomass or productivity and the species richness of birds are associated across a range of spatial scales. Species-energy theory is generally assumed to explain these correlations. If true, bird richness should also track productivity temporally, and there should be spatial and temporal relationships between productivity and both bird abundance and bird richness. Using the summer normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for 1982-2006 and the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we evaluated the response of avian richness and abundance to interannual changes in plant biomass or productivity. We found positive spatial relationships between richness and NDVI for all 25 years. Temporally, however, richness and NDVI were positively associated at 1579 survey sites and negatively associated at 1627 sites (mean r2 = 0.09). Further, total abundance and NDVI were unrelated spatially (r2 values spanning < 0.01 and 0.03) and weakly related temporally (mean r2 = 0.10). We found no evidence that productivity drives bird richness beyond the spatial correlations, and neither prediction arising from species-energy theory was confirmed. Spatial relationships between productivity and bird richness may thus be largely spurious, arising via covariance between plant biomass or productivity and vegetation structural complexity, and the latter may be driving bird communities. This is consistent with the MacArthurs' classic hypothesis that the vertical profile of foliage drives bird species diversity.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Aves/fisiologia , Animais , América do Norte , Densidade Demográfica , Dinâmica Populacional , Fatores de Tempo
3.
Ecol Lett ; 17(9): 1086-93, 2014 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24912000

RESUMO

Although fungal communities are known to vary along latitudinal gradients, mechanisms underlying this pattern are not well-understood. We used high-throughput sequencing to examine the large-scale distributions of soil fungi and their relation to evolutionary history. We tested the Tropical Conservatism Hypothesis, which predicts that ancestral fungal groups should be more restricted to tropical latitudes and conditions than would more recently derived groups. We found support for this hypothesis in that older phyla preferred significantly lower latitudes and warmer, wetter conditions than did younger phyla. Moreover, preferences for higher latitudes and lower precipitation levels were significantly phylogenetically conserved among the six younger phyla, possibly because the older phyla possess a zoospore stage that is vulnerable to drought, whereas the younger phyla retain protective cell walls throughout their life cycle. Our study provides novel evidence that the Tropical Conservatism Hypothesis applies to microbes as well as plants and animals.


Assuntos
Evolução Biológica , Fungos/fisiologia , Microbiologia do Solo , Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Fungos/classificação , Fungos/genética , Filogenia , RNA Ribossômico 18S/genética , Clima Tropical
4.
Am Nat ; 180(2): 246-56, 2012 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22766934

RESUMO

Ecology, evolution, and historical events all contribute to biogeographic patterns, but studies that integrate them are scarce. Here we focus on how biotic exchanges of mammals during the Late Cenozoic have contributed to current geographic body size patterns. We explore differences in the environmental correlates and phylogenetic patterning of body size between groups of mammals participating and not participating in past biotic exchanges. Both the association of body size with environmental predictors and its phylogenetic signal were stronger for groups that immigrated into North or South America than for indigenous groups. This pattern, which held when extinct clades were included in the analyses, can be interpreted on the basis of the length of time that clades have had to diversify and occupy niche space. Moreover, we identify a role for historical events, such as Cenozoic migrations, in configuring contemporary mammal body size patterns and illustrate where these influences have been strongest for New World mammals.


Assuntos
Migração Animal , Evolução Biológica , Tamanho Corporal , Mamíferos/anatomia & histologia , Animais , América Central , Clima , Ecossistema , Mamíferos/fisiologia , América do Norte , Filogenia , América do Sul
5.
Ecol Lett ; 14(8): 741-8, 2011 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21645193

RESUMO

Current climate and Pleistocene climatic changes are both known to be associated with geographical patterns of diversity. We assess their associations with the European Scarabaeinae dung beetles, a group with high dispersal ability and well-known adaptations to warm environments. By assessing spatial stationarity in climate variability since the last glacial maximum (LGM), we find that current scarab richness is related to the location of their limits of thermal tolerance during the LGM. These limits mark a strong change in their current species richness-environment relationships. Furthermore, northern scarab assemblages are nested and composed of a phylogenetically clustered subset of large-range sized generalist species, whereas southern ones are diverse and variable in composition. Our results show that species responses to current climate are limited by the evolution of assemblages that occupied relatively climatically stable areas during the Pleistocene, and by post-glacial dispersal in those that were strongly affected by glaciations.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Evolução Biológica , Mudança Climática , Clima Frio , Besouros/classificação , Animais , Filogenia
6.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1198, 2021 02 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33608528

RESUMO

Understanding how species' thermal limits have evolved across the tree of life is central to predicting species' responses to climate change. Here, using experimentally-derived estimates of thermal tolerance limits for over 2000 terrestrial and aquatic species, we show that most of the variation in thermal tolerance can be attributed to a combination of adaptation to current climatic extremes, and the existence of evolutionary 'attractors' that reflect either boundaries or optima in thermal tolerance limits. Our results also reveal deep-time climate legacies in ectotherms, whereby orders that originated in cold paleoclimates have presently lower cold tolerance limits than those with warm thermal ancestry. Conversely, heat tolerance appears unrelated to climate ancestry. Cold tolerance has evolved more quickly than heat tolerance in endotherms and ectotherms. If the past tempo of evolution for upper thermal limits continues, adaptive responses in thermal limits will have limited potential to rescue the large majority of species given the unprecedented rate of contemporary climate change.


Assuntos
Evolução Biológica , Fenômenos Fisiológicos Vegetais , Termotolerância/fisiologia , Adaptação Fisiológica , Animais , Clima , Mudança Climática , Planeta Terra , Ecologia , Temperatura Alta , Temperatura
7.
Ecol Lett ; 13(10): 1310-24, 2010 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20649638

RESUMO

The diversity of life is ultimately generated by evolution, and much attention has focused on the rapid evolution of ecological traits. Yet, the tendency for many ecological traits to instead remain similar over time [niche conservatism (NC)] has many consequences for the fundamental patterns and processes studied in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we describe the mounting evidence for the importance of NC to major topics in ecology (e.g. species richness, ecosystem function) and conservation (e.g. climate change, invasive species). We also review other areas where it may be important but has generally been overlooked, in both ecology (e.g. food webs, disease ecology, mutualistic interactions) and conservation (e.g. habitat modification). We summarize methods for testing for NC, and suggest that a commonly used and advocated method (involving a test for phylogenetic signal) is potentially problematic, and describe alternative approaches. We suggest that considering NC: (1) focuses attention on the within-species processes that cause traits to be conserved over time, (2) emphasizes connections between questions and research areas that are not obviously related (e.g. invasives, global warming, tropical richness), and (3) suggests new areas for research (e.g. why are some clades largely nocturnal? why do related species share diseases?).


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecologia/tendências , Ecossistema , Biodiversidade , Evolução Biológica , Mudança Climática , Cadeia Alimentar , Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita , Espécies Introduzidas , Modelos Biológicos , Filogenia
8.
Proc Biol Sci ; 277(1691): 2131-8, 2010 Jul 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20335205

RESUMO

Biologists have long searched for mechanisms responsible for the increase in species richness with decreasing latitude. The strong correlation between species richness and climate is frequently interpreted as reflecting a causal link via processes linked to energy or evolutionary rates. Here, we investigate how the aggregation of clades, as dictated by phylogeny, can give rise to significant climate-richness gradients without gradients in diversification or environmental carrying capacity. The relationship between climate and species richness varies considerably between clades, regions and time periods in a global-scale phylogenetically informed analysis of all terrestrial mammal species. Many young clades show negative richness-temperature slopes (more species at cooler temperatures), with the ages of these clades coinciding with the expansion of temperate climate zones in the late Eocene. In carnivores, we find steeply positive richness-temperature slopes in clades with restricted distributions and tropical origins (e.g. cat clade), whereas widespread, temperate clades exhibit shallow, negative slopes (e.g. dog-bear clade). We show that the slope of the global climate-richness gradient in mammals is driven by aggregating Chiroptera (bats) with their Eutherian sister group. Our findings indicate that the evolutionary history should be accounted for as part of any search for causal links between environment and species richness.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Evolução Biológica , Clima , Demografia , Ecossistema , Mamíferos/fisiologia , Filogenia , Adaptação Biológica/fisiologia , Animais , Geografia , Modelos Biológicos , Especificidade da Espécie
9.
Sci Data ; 5: 180022, 2018 03 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29533392

RESUMO

How climate affects species distributions is a longstanding question receiving renewed interest owing to the need to predict the impacts of global warming on biodiversity. Is climate change forcing species to live near their critical thermal limits? Are these limits likely to change through natural selection? These and other important questions can be addressed with models relating geographical distributions of species with climate data, but inferences made with these models are highly contingent on non-climatic factors such as biotic interactions. Improved understanding of climate change effects on species will require extensive analysis of thermal physiological traits, but such data are both scarce and scattered. To overcome current limitations, we created the GlobTherm database. The database contains experimentally derived species' thermal tolerance data currently comprising over 2,000 species of terrestrial, freshwater, intertidal and marine multicellular algae, plants, fungi, and animals. The GlobTherm database will be maintained and curated by iDiv with the aim to keep expanding it, and enable further investigations on the effects of climate on the distribution of life on Earth.

10.
Am Nat ; 170 Suppl 2: S16-27, 2007 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17874382

RESUMO

We tested the proposition that there are more species in the tropics because basal clades adapted to warm paleoclimates have been lost in regions now experiencing cool climates. Molecular phylogenies were used to classify species as "basal" and "derived" based on their family, and their richness patterns were contrasted. Path models also evaluated environmental predictors of richness patterns. As predicted, basal clades are more diverse in the lowland tropics, whereas derived clades are more diverse in the extratropics and high-altitude tropics. Seventy-four percent of the variation in bird richness was explained by environmental variables, but models differed for basal and derived groups. The overall gradient is described by the spatial pattern of basal clades, although there are differences in the Old and New Worlds. We conclude that in ecological time, the global richness gradient reflects birds' responses to climatic gradients, partially operating via plants. Over evolutionary time, the gradient primarily reflects the extirpation of species in older clades from parts of the world that have become cooler in the present. A strong secondary effect arises from dispersal of clades from centers of origin and subsequent radiations. Overall, the diversity gradient is well explained by niche conservatism and the "time-for-speciation" hypothesis.


Assuntos
Aves/classificação , Clima , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Animais , Biomassa , Extinção Biológica , Especiação Genética , Geografia , Modelos Biológicos , Filogenia , Desenvolvimento Vegetal
11.
Proc Biol Sci ; 274(1606): 43-52, 2007 Jan 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17018430

RESUMO

Correlations between species richness and climate suggest non-random occupation of environmental space and niche evolution through time. However, the evolutionary mechanisms involved remain unresolved. Here, we partition the occupation of environmental space into intra- and inter-clade components to differentiate a model based on pure conservation of ancestral niches with higher diversification rates in the tropics, and an adaptive radiation model based on shifts in adaptive peaks at the family level allowing occupation of temperate regions. We examined these mechanisms using within- and among-family skewness components based on centroids of 3560 New World bird species across four environmental variables. We found that the accumulation of species in the tropics is a result of both processes. The components of adaptive radiation have family level skewness of species' distributions strongly structured in space, but not phylogenetically, according to the integrated analyses of spatial filters and phylogenetic eigenvectors. Moreover, stronger radiation components were found for energy variables, which are often used to argue for direct climatic effects on diversity. Thus, the correspondence between diversity and climate may be due to the conservation of ancestral tropical niches coupled with repeated broad shifts in adaptive peaks during birds' evolutionary history more than by higher diversification rates driven by more energy in the tropics.


Assuntos
Migração Animal , Aves/fisiologia , Ecossistema , Adaptação Fisiológica , Animais , Evolução Biológica , Clima , Simulação por Computador , Geografia , Especificidade da Espécie
12.
Ecology ; 88(8): 1877-88, 2007 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17824415

RESUMO

We compiled 46 broadscale data sets of species richness for a wide range of terrestrial plant, invertebrate, and ectothermic vertebrate groups in all parts of the world to test the ability of metabolic theory to account for observed diversity gradients. The theory makes two related predictions: (1) In-transformed richness is linearly associated with a linear, inverse transformation of annual temperature, and (2) the slope of the relationship is near -0.65. Of the 46 data sets, 14 had no significant relationship; of the remaining 32, nine were linear, meeting prediction 1. Model I (ordinary least squares, OLS) and model II (reduced major axis, RMA) regressions then tested the linear slopes against prediction 2. In the 23 data sets having nonlinear relationships between richness and temperature, split-line regression divided the data into linear components, and regressions were done on each component to test prediction 2 for subsets of the data. Of the 46 data sets analyzed in their entirety using OLS regression, one was consistent with metabolic theory (meeting both predictions), and one was possibly consistent. Using RMA regression, no data sets were consistent. Of 67 analyses of prediction 2 using OLS regression on all linear data sets and subsets, two were consistent with the prediction, and four were possibly consistent. Using RMA regression, one was consistent (albeit weakly), and four were possibly consistent. We also found that the relationship between richness and temperature is both taxonomically and geographically conditional, and there is no evidence for a universal response of diversity to temperature. Meta-analyses confirmed significant heterogeneity in slopes among data sets, and the combined slopes across studies were significantly lower than the range of slopes predicted by metabolic theory based on both OLS and RMA regressions. We conclude that metabolic theory, as currently formulated, is a poor predictor of observed diversity gradients in most terrestrial systems.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Metabolismo Energético/fisiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Temperatura , Animais , Geografia , Invertebrados/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Modelos Lineares , Desenvolvimento Vegetal , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Análise de Regressão , Especificidade da Espécie
13.
Ecol Evol ; 7(18): 7548-7559, 2017 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28944038

RESUMO

Understanding how environmental change alters the composition of plant assemblages, and how this in turn affects ecosystem functioning is a major challenge in the face of global climate change. Assuming that values of plant traits express species adaptations to the environment, the trait-based approach is a promising way to achieve this goal. Nevertheless, how functional traits are related to species' environmental tolerances and how trait spectra respond to broad-scale environmental gradients remains largely unexplored. Here, we identify the main trait spectra for US angiosperm trees by testing hypotheses for the relationships between functional traits and species' environmental tolerances to environmental stresses, as well as quantifying the environmental drivers of assemblage means and variances of these traits. We analyzed >74,000 community assemblages from the US Forest Inventory and Analysis using 12 functional traits, five traits expressing species' environmental tolerances and 10 environmental variables. Results indicated that leaf traits, dispersal traits, and traits related to stem hydraulics were related to cold or drought tolerance, and their assemblage means were best explained by minimum temperatures. Assemblage means of traits related to shade tolerance (tree growth rate, leaf phosphorus content, and bark thickness) were best explained by aridity index. Surprisingly, aridity index, rather than minimum temperature, was the best predictors of assemblage variances of most traits, although these relationships were variable and weak overall. We conclude that temperature is likely to be the most important driver of functional community structure of North American angiosperm trees by selecting for optimum strategies along the cold and drought stress trade-off. In turn, water availability primarily affects traits related to shade tolerance through its effect on forest canopy structure and vegetation openness.

14.
Am Nat ; 166(5): E140-3, 2005 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16224716

RESUMO

The mid-domain effect (MDE) has been proposed as a null model for diversity gradients and an explanation for observed patterns. Here we respond to a recent defense of the concept, explaining that it cannot represent a viable model in either real or null worlds. First, the MDE misrepresents the nature of species ranges. There is also an internal logical inconsistency underlying the MDE because the range size frequency distribution, necessary to generate a hump-shaped pattern under randomization, cannot exist in the absence of environmental gradients and is generated by the ecological and historical processes that the MDE claims to exclude.


Assuntos
Frequência do Gene , Variação Genética , Modelos Genéticos , Ecossistema , Meio Ambiente , Geografia , Especificidade da Espécie , Fatores de Tempo
15.
Oecologia ; 102(1): 31-36, 1995 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28306804

RESUMO

We tested for the existence of latitudinal gradients in the body sizes of butterflies in North America, Europe, Australia and the Afrotropics. We initially compared body sizes (measured as male forewing length) of all butterflies found in 5° latitudinal bands in each region, and then evaluated the relationship between body size and latitude statistically using the latitudinal midpoint of each species' distribution. Trends were examined for species in all butterfly families together and for each family separately. We found that gradients in body sizes were inconsistent in different geographical regions and butterfly families; in some cases species were larger towards the tropics, in some they were smaller, and in other cases there were no relationships. Most of the gradients, when they existed, reflected between-family effects arising from changes in the relative numbers of species in each family across regions. We conclude that general ecological explanations for geographical trends in butterfly body sizes are inappropriate, and gradients largely reflect historical patterns of speciation within and between taxa in each biogeographical realm. Thus, the robustness of body size gradients found in other insect groups should be confirmed in future studies by including more than one geographical region whenever possible.

16.
Oecologia ; 112(4): 566-571, 1997 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28307635

RESUMO

Classical biological control could have a major environmental cost if introduced natural enemies colonize and disrupt native systems. Although quantifying these impacts is difficult for systems already colonized by natural enemies, the a priori condition for such impacts can be evaluated based on the extent to which exotics have acquired native hosts. We use native host records for exotic parasitoids introduced into North America for biological control to document the number of exotic species that have been recorded from at least one native insect species. We also evaluate the ability of six biological and ecological variables to predict whether or not a parasitoid will move onto natives. Sixteen percent of 313 parasitoid species introduced against holometabolous pests are known from natives. Further, the likelihood that a parasitoid had colonized native hosts was largely unpredictable with respect to the independent variables. We conclude that given the quality of the data available either now or in the foreseeable future, coupled with inherent stochasticity in host shifts by parasitoids, there are no rules of thumb to assist biological control workers in evaluating if an introduced parasitoid will colonize native insect communities.

17.
Oecologia ; 116(1-2): 234-242, 1998 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28308531

RESUMO

We used aphids (Aphidae) as a representative hemimetabolous host family to investigate patterns of parasitoid (Aphidiine) assemblage size. The aphidiine assemblages from 477 aphid species were used to estimate average assemblage size and the influence of eight ecological and taxonomic variables. Aphids species support an average of 1.7 aphidiine species. Aphid subfamily and invasion status (native or exotic) were the most important determinants of parasitoid richness, explaining 28% of the deviance in aphidiine assemblage size. Aphids within the largest aphid subfamily, the Aphidinae, support larger parasitoid assemblages than those in other subfamilies. Parasitoid diversity was also highest on exotic aphid hosts (within the Aphidinae) and on hosts in developed habitats (agricultural or urban), though the latter effect is weak. Patterns related to aphid food plant architecture were influenced by an interaction with aphid invasion status; parasitoid diversity drops with increasing architectural complexity on exotic aphids, whereas the diversities on native aphid hosts are similar on different plant types. Weak effects were also found for aphid food plant alternation (whether or not aphids switch hosts seasonally) and climate (annual range in temperature); alternating aphids support more parasitoids than non-alternating hosts, and parasitoid assemblage size is lowest in warm climates. Taxonomic isolation of aphids at the generic level showed no significant relationship with parasitoid diversity. Finally, in contrast to parasitoid assemblages on holometabolous hosts, sample size effects were weak for aphids, possibly due to the narrow host ranges of aphidiines.

18.
Oecologia ; 129(3): 445-451, 2001 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28547200

RESUMO

We compared the parasitoid communities associated with grass-feeding herbivores in Germany and Britain to examine geographical consistency in community composition and to test ecological characteristics of the plants and host insects that may explain variability in parasitoid community structure. The parasitoid communities of 16 chalcid wasps feeding on ten grass species were sampled between 1986 and 1989 at 4-11 sites per grass species in southwest Germany. The data were compared to published data from Great Britain, comprising 18 chalcid hosts on ten grass species sampled between 1980 and 1992 at 24 sites in Wales and England. Results showed that many conclusions drawn from patterns in Britain did not hold for Germany, emphasizing the need to repeat analyses in different geographical regions. The parasitoid communities of the Tetramesa hosts included on average 8.1 parasitoid species in Germany, while the British hosts supported only 4.1 parasitoids. The number of monophagous parasitoid species was similar in both areas (2.4 vs 3.2), but German host populations supported many more polyphagous species (5.1 vs 0.9). This difference reinforces the earlier conclusion that parasitoid communities in Britain are highly undersaturated. Increased numbers of parasitoid species in Germany did not result in increased parasitism rates, so the closer species packing was paralleled by reduced impact of each species. In Germany, percent parasitism (range: 5-74%) was closely correlated with log host density, explaining 90% of the variance, while in Great Britain, percent parasitism was less variable (range: 36-76%) and was not related to host density or other host or host plant characteristics. Gallers and non-gallers supported equal numbers of parasitoids in both Germany and Britain, offering support for neither the enemy hypothesis of the adaptive nature of plant galls nor for the finding that galls are often more susceptible to enemy attack than their non-galling relatives. Furthermore, gregarious Tetramesa hosts were not attacked by more parasitoid species than solitary hosts.

19.
J Biogeogr ; 41(1): 23-38, 2014 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24563577

RESUMO

AimThe fossil record has led to a historical explanation for forest diversity gradients within the cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere, founded on a limited ability of woody angiosperm clades to adapt to mid-Tertiary cooling. We tested four predictions of how this should be manifested in the phylogenetic structure of 91,340 communities: (1) forests to the north should comprise species from younger clades (families) than forests to the south; (2) average cold tolerance at a local site should be associated with the mean family age (MFA) of species; (3) minimum temperature should account for MFA better than alternative environmental variables; and (4) traits associated with survival in cold climates should evolve under a niche conservatism constraint. LocationThe contiguous United States. MethodsWe extracted angiosperms from the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis database. MFA was calculated by assigning age of the family to which each species belongs and averaging across the species in each community. We developed a phylogeny to identify phylogenetic signal in five traits: realized cold tolerance, seed size, seed dispersal mode, leaf phenology and height. Phylogenetic signal representation curves and phylogenetic generalized least squares were used to compare patterns of trait evolution against Brownian motion. Eleven predictors structured at broad or local scales were generated to explore relationships between environment and MFA using random forest and general linear models. ResultsConsistent with predictions, (1) southern communities comprise angiosperm species from older families than northern communities, (2) cold tolerance is the trait most strongly associated with local MFA, (3) minimum temperature in the coldest month is the environmental variable that best describes MFA, broad-scale variables being much stronger correlates than local-scale variables, and (4) the phylogenetic structures of cold tolerance and at least one other trait associated with survivorship in cold climates indicate niche conservatism. Main conclusionsTropical niche conservatism in the face of long-term climate change, probably initiated in the Late Cretaceous associated with the rise of the Rocky Mountains, is a strong driver of the phylogenetic structure of the angiosperm component of forest communities across the USA. However, local deterministic and/or stochastic processes account for perhaps a quarter of the variation in the MFA of local communities.

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