Choice of HbA1c threshold for identifying individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes and implications for diabetes prevention programmes: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is common and increasing in prevalence. It is possible to prevent or delay T2D using lifestyle intervention programmes. Entry to these programmes is usually determined by a measure of glycaemia in the 'intermediate' range. This paper investigated the relationship between HbA1c and future diabetes risk and determined the impact of varying thresholds to identify those at high risk of developing T2D. METHODS: We studied 4227 participants without diabetes aged ≥ 40 years recruited to the Exeter 10,000 population cohort in South West England. HbA1c was measured at study recruitment with repeat HbA1c available as part of usual care. Absolute risk of developing diabetes within 5 years, defined by HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol (6.5%), according to baseline HbA1c, was assessed by a flexible parametric survival model. RESULTS: The overall absolute 5-year risk (95% CI) of developing T2D in the cohort was 4.2% (3.6, 4.8%). This rose to 7.1% (6.1, 8.2%) in the 56% (n = 2358/4224) of participants classified 'high-risk' with HbA1c ≥ 39 mmol/mol (5.7%; ADA criteria). Under IEC criteria, HbA1c ≥ 42 mmol/mol (6.0%), 22% (n = 929/4277) of the cohort was classified high-risk with 5-year risk 14.9% (12.6, 17.2%). Those with the highest HbA1c values (44-47 mmol/mol [6.2-6.4%]) had much higher 5-year risk, 26.4% (22.0, 30.5%) compared with 2.1% (1.5, 2.6%) for 39-41 mmol/mol (5.7-5.9%) and 7.0% (5.4, 8.6%) for 42-43 mmol/mol (6.0-6.1%). Changing the entry criterion to prevention programmes from 39 to 42 mmol/mol (5.7-6.0%) reduced the proportion classified high-risk by 61%, and increased the positive predictive value (PPV) from 5.8 to 12.4% with negligible impact on the negative predictive value (NPV), 99.6% to 99.1%. Increasing the threshold further, to 44 mmol/mol (6.2%), reduced those classified high-risk by 59%, and markedly increased the PPV from 12.4 to 23.2% and had little impact on the NPV (99.1% to 98.5%). CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of people are identified as high-risk using current thresholds. Increasing the risk threshold markedly reduces the number of people that would be classified as high-risk and entered into prevention programmes, although this must be balanced against cases missed. Raising the entry threshold would allow limited intervention opportunities to be focused on those most likely to develop T2D.

Type 1 diabetes defined by severe insulin deficiency occurs after 30 years of age and is commonly treated as type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Late-onset type 1 diabetes can be difficult to identify. Measurement of endogenous insulin secretion using C-peptide provides a gold standard classification of diabetes type in longstanding diabetes that closely relates to treatment requirements. We aimed to determine the prevalence and characteristics of type 1 diabetes defined by severe endogenous insulin deficiency after age 30 and assess whether these individuals are identified and managed as having type 1 diabetes in clinical practice. METHODS: We assessed the characteristics of type 1 diabetes defined by rapid insulin requirement (within 3 years of diagnosis) and severe endogenous insulin deficiency (non-fasting C-peptide <200 pmol/l) in 583 participants with insulin-treated diabetes, diagnosed after age 30, from the Diabetes Alliance for Research in England (DARE) population cohort. We compared characteristics with participants with retained endogenous insulin secretion (>600 pmol/l) and 220 participants with severe insulin deficiency who were diagnosed under age 30. RESULTS: Twenty-one per cent of participants with insulin-treated diabetes who were diagnosed after age 30 met the study criteria for type 1 diabetes. Of these participants, 38% did not receive insulin at diagnosis, of whom 47% self-reported type 2 diabetes. Rapid insulin requirement was highly predictive of severe endogenous insulin deficiency: 85% required insulin within 1 year of diagnosis, and 47% of all those initially treated without insulin who progressed to insulin treatment within 3 years of diagnosis had severe endogenous insulin deficiency. Participants with late-onset type 1 diabetes defined by development of severe insulin deficiency had similar clinical characteristics to those with young-onset type 1 diabetes. However, those with later onset type 1 diabetes had a modestly lower type 1 diabetes genetic risk score (0.268 vs 0.279; p < 0.001 [expected type 2 diabetes population median, 0.231]), a higher islet autoantibody prevalence (GAD-, islet antigen 2 [IA2]- or zinc transporter protein 8 [ZnT8]-positive) of 78% at 13 years vs 62% at 26 years of diabetes duration; (p = 0.02), and were less likely to identify as having type 1 diabetes (79% vs 100%; p < 0.001) vs those with young-onset disease. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Type 1 diabetes diagnosed over 30 years of age, defined by severe insulin deficiency, has similar clinical and biological characteristics to that occurring at younger ages, but is frequently not identified. Clinicians should be aware that patients progressing to insulin within 3 years of diagnosis have a high likelihood of type 1 diabetes, regardless of initial diagnosis.

Random non-fasting C-peptide testing can identify patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes at high risk of hypoglycaemia.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to determine whether random non-fasting C-peptide (rCP) measurement can be used to assess hypoglycaemia risk in insulin-treated type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We compared continuous glucose monitoring-assessed SD of blood glucose and hypoglycaemia duration in 17 patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes and severe insulin deficiency (rCP < 200 pmol/l) and 17 matched insulin-treated control patients with type 2 diabetes but who had preserved endogenous insulin (rCP > 600 pmol/l). We then assessed the relationship between rCP and questionnaire-based measures of hypoglycaemia in 256 patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes and a comparison group of 209 individuals with type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM)-assessed glucose variability and hypoglycaemia was greater in individuals with rCP < 200 pmol/l despite similar mean glucose. In those with low vs high C-peptide, SD of glucose was 4.2 (95% CI 3.7, 4.6) vs 3.0 (2.6, 3.4) mmol/l (p < 0.001). In the low-C-peptide vs high-C-peptide group, the proportion of individuals experiencing sustained hypoglycaemia ≤ 4 mmol/l was 94% vs 41% (p < 0.001), the mean rate of hypoglycaemia was 5.5 (4.4, 6.7) vs 2.1 (1.4, 2.9) episodes per person per week (p = 0.004) and the mean duration was 630 (619, 643) vs 223 (216, 230) min per person per week (p = 0.01). Hypoglycaemia ≤ 3 mmol/l was infrequent in individuals with preserved C-peptide (1.8 [1.2, 2.6] episodes per person per week vs 0.4 [0.1, 0.8] episodes per person per week for low vs high C-peptide, p = 0.04) and only occurred at night. In a population-based cohort with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes, self-reported hypoglycaemia was twice as frequent in those with rCP < 200 pmol/l (OR 2.0, p < 0.001) and the rate of episodes resulting in loss of consciousness or seizure was five times higher (OR 5.0, p = 0.001). The relationship between self-reported hypoglycaemia and C-peptide was similar in individuals with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Low rCP is associated with increased glucose variability and hypoglycaemia in patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes and represents a practical, stable and inexpensive biomarker for assessment of hypoglycaemia risk.

Age of Diagnosis Does Not Alter the Presentation or Progression of Robustly Defined Adult-Onset Type 1 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether presentation, progression, and genetic susceptibility of robustly defined adult-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) are altered by diagnosis age. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We compared the relationship between diagnosis age and presentation, C-peptide loss (annual change in urine C-peptide-creatinine ratio [UCPCR]), and genetic susceptibility (T1D genetic risk score [GRS]) in adults with confirmed T1D in the prospective StartRight study, 1,798 adults with new-onset diabetes. T1D was defined in two ways: two or more positive islet autoantibodies (of GAD antibody, IA-2 antigen, and ZnT8 autoantibody) irrespective of clinical diagnosis (n = 385) or one positive islet autoantibody and a clinical diagnosis of T1D (n = 180). RESULTS: In continuous analysis, age of diagnosis was not associated with C-peptide loss for either definition of T1D (P > 0.1), with mean (95% CI) annual C-peptide loss in those diagnosed before and after 35 years of age (median age of T1D defined by two or more positive autoantibodies): 39% (31-46) vs. 44% (38-50) with two or more positive islet autoantibodies and 43% (33-51) vs. 39% (31-46) with clinician diagnosis confirmed by one positive islet autoantibody (P > 0.1). Baseline C-peptide and T1D GRS were unaffected by age of diagnosis or T1D definition (P > 0.1). In T1D defined by two or more autoantibodies, presentation severity was similar in those diagnosed before and after 35 years of age: unintentional weight loss, 80% (95% CI 74-85) vs. 82% (76-87); ketoacidosis, 24% (18-30) vs. 19% (14-25); and presentation glucose, 21 mmol/L (19-22) vs. 21 mmol/L (20-22) (all P ≥ 0.1). Despite similar presentation, older adults were less likely to be diagnosed with T1D, insulin-treated, or admitted to hospital. CONCLUSIONS: When adult-onset T1D is robustly defined, the presentation characteristics, progression, and T1D genetic susceptibility are not altered by age of diagnosis.

Routine Islet Autoantibody Testing in Clinically Diagnosed Adult-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Can Help Identify Misclassification and the Possibility of Successful Insulin Cessation.

OBJECTIVE: Recent joint American Diabetes Association and European Association for the Study of Diabetes guidelines recommend routine islet autoantibody testing in all adults newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. We aimed to assess the impact of routine islet autoantibody testing in this population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We prospectively assessed the relationship between islet autoantibody status (GADA, IA-2A, and ZNT8A), clinical and genetic characteristics, and progression (annual change in urine C-peptide-to-creatinine ratio [UCPCR]) in 722 adults (≥18 years old at diagnosis) with clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes and diabetes duration <12 months. We also evaluated changes in treatment and glycemia over 2 years after informing participants and their clinicians of autoantibody results. RESULTS: Of 722 participants diagnosed with type 1 diabetes, 24.8% (179) were autoantibody negative. This group had genetic and C-peptide characteristics suggestive of a high prevalence of nonautoimmune diabetes: lower mean type 1 diabetes genetic risk score (islet autoantibody negative vs. positive: 10.85 vs. 13.09 [P < 0.001] [type 2 diabetes 10.12]) and lower annual change in C-peptide (UCPCR), -24% vs. -43% (P < 0.001).After median 24 months of follow-up, treatment change occurred in 36.6% (60 of 164) of autoantibody-negative participants: 22.6% (37 of 164) discontinued insulin, with HbA1c similar to that of participants continuing insulin (57.5 vs. 60.8 mmol/mol [7.4 vs. 7.7%], P = 0.4), and 14.0% (23 of 164) added adjuvant agents to insulin. CONCLUSIONS: In adult-onset clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes, negative islet autoantibodies should prompt careful consideration of other diabetes subtypes. When routinely measured, negative antibodies are associated with successful insulin cessation. These findings support recent recommendations for routine islet autoantibody assessment in adult-onset type 1 diabetes.

Precision Medicine in Type 2 Diabetes: Clinical Markers of Insulin Resistance Are Associated With Altered Short- and Long-term Glycemic Response to DPP-4 Inhibitor Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: A precision approach to type 2 diabetes therapy would aim to target treatment according to patient characteristics. We examined if measures of insulin resistance and secretion were associated with glycemic response to dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitor therapy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated whether markers of insulin resistance and insulin secretion were associated with 6-month glycemic response in a prospective study of noninsulin-treated participants starting DPP-4 inhibitor therapy (Predicting Response to Incretin Based Agents [PRIBA] study; n = 254), with replication for routinely available markers in U.K. electronic health care records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD]; n = 23,001). In CPRD, we evaluated associations between baseline markers and 3-year durability of response. To test the specificity of findings, we repeated analyses for glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (PRIBA, n = 339; CPRD, n = 4,464). RESULTS: In PRIBA, markers of higher insulin resistance (higher fasting C-peptide [P = 0.03], HOMA2 insulin resistance [P = 0.01], and triglycerides [P < 0.01]) were associated with reduced 6-month HbA1c response to DPP-4 inhibitors. In CPRD, higher triglycerides and BMI were associated with reduced HbA1c response (both P < 0.01). A subgroup defined by obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) and high triglycerides (≥2.3 mmol/L) had reduced 6-month response in both data sets (PRIBA HbA1c reduction 5.3 [95% CI 1.8, 8.6] mmol/mol [0.5%] [obese and high triglycerides] vs. 11.3 [8.4, 14.1] mmol/mol [1.0%] [nonobese and normal triglycerides]; P = 0.01). In CPRD, the obese, high- triglycerides subgroup also had less durable response (hazard ratio 1.28 [1.16, 1.41]; P < 0.001). There was no association between markers of insulin resistance and response to GLP-1 receptor agonists. CONCLUSIONS: Markers of higher insulin resistance are consistently associated with reduced glycemic response to DPP-4 inhibitors. This finding provides a starting point for the application of a precision diabetes approach to DPP-4 inhibitor therapy.

Markers of ß-Cell Failure Predict Poor Glycemic Response to GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Therapy in Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether clinical characteristics and simple biomarkers of ß-cell failure are associated with individual variation in glycemic response to GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We prospectively studied 620 participants with type 2 diabetes and HbA1c ≥58 mmol/mol (7.5%) commencing GLP-1RA therapy as part of their usual diabetes care and assessed response to therapy over 6 months. We assessed the association between baseline clinical measurements associated with ß-cell failure and glycemic response (primary outcome HbA1c change 0-6 months) with change in weight (0-6 months) as a secondary outcome using linear regression and ANOVA with adjustment for baseline HbA1c and cotreatment change. RESULTS: Reduced glycemic response to GLP-1RAs was associated with longer duration of diabetes, insulin cotreatment, lower fasting C-peptide, lower postmeal urine C-peptide-to-creatinine ratio, and positive GAD or IA2 islet autoantibodies (P ≤ 0.01 for all). Participants with positive autoantibodies or severe insulin deficiency (fasting C-peptide ≤0.25 nmol/L) had markedly reduced glycemic response to GLP-1RA therapy (autoantibodies, mean HbA1c change -5.2 vs. -15.2 mmol/mol [-0.5 vs. -1.4%], P = 0.005; C-peptide <0.25 nmol/L, mean change -2.1 vs. -15.3 mmol/mol [-0.2 vs. -1.4%], P = 0.002). These markers were predominantly present in insulin-treated participants and were not associated with weight change. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical markers of low ß-cell function are associated with reduced glycemic response to GLP-1RA therapy. C-peptide and islet autoantibodies represent potential biomarkers for the stratification of GLP-1RA therapy in insulin-treated diabetes.

Five-year follow-up for women with subclinical hypothyroidism in pregnancy.

CONTEXT: Increasing numbers of women are being treated with l-thyroxine in pregnancy for mild thyroid dysfunction because of its association with impaired neuropsychological development in their offspring and other adverse obstetric outcomes. However, there are limited data to indicate whether treatment should be continued outside of pregnancy. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine whether subclinical hypothyroidism and maternal hypothyroxinemia resolve postdelivery. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 523 pregnant healthy women with no known thyroid disorders were recruited during routine antenatal care and provided blood samples at 28 weeks of pregnancy and at a mean of 4.9 years postpregnancy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: TSH, free T4, free T3, and thyroid peroxidase antibody levels were measured in serum taken in pregnancy and at follow-up. RESULTS: Subclinical hypothyroidism in pregnancy (TSH >3 mIU/L) was present in 65 of 523 (12.4%) women. Of these, 49 (75.4%) women had normal thyroid function postpregnancy; 16 of 65 (24.6%) had persistent high TSH (TSH >4.5 mIU/L postpregnancy) with 3 women receiving l-thyroxine treatment. A total of 44 of 523 (8.4%) women had isolated maternal hypothyroxinemia in pregnancy (free T4 <10th centile and TSH ≤3 mIU/L). Only 2 of 44 (4.5%) had TSH >4.5 mIU/L outside pregnancy. Of the women with subclinical hypothyroidism in pregnancy with antibody measurements available, those with thyroid peroxidase antibodies in pregnancy were more likely to have persistently elevated TSH or be receiving l-thyroxine replacement after pregnancy (6 of 7 [86%] vs 10 of 57 [18%], P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of cases of subclinical hypothyroidism in pregnancy are transient, so treatment with l-thyroxine in these patients should be reviewed because it may not be warranted after pregnancy.