Ineffective implementation of emergency reduction measures against high concentrations of particulate matter in Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Since December 30, 2017, the Seoul Metropolitan Government, Republic of Korea, has been implementing emergency reduction measures (ERMs) restricting the operation of industrial sites, thermal power plants, and vehicles when air quality is expected to deteriorate. ERMs are implemented when the present observed concentration of particulate matter (PM) of aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and/or the predicted values for the following day exceed a threshold value. In this study, the effectiveness of ERMs was evaluated for 33 days with and 6 days without ERM implementation but where the PM2.5 concentration exceeded the threshold value, until March 15, 2021. Of the 33 days of ERM implementation, on 7 days it was executed despite the thresholds not being met. The ERM on these days might have been properly executed because the pre-notice and implementation of ERM might have reduced the local emissions of air pollutants. Our major findings are that even on days of ERM implementation, there were marginal reductions in vehicle traffic, thermal power generation, and industrial emissions. Second, the concentrations of PM2.5 and related air pollutants in Seoul were almost unchanged for most ERM implementation episodes. Third, most of the 39 (= 33 + 6) days when the air quality worsened were caused by the transboundary transport of air pollutants from China. In conclusion, it was revealed that the currently executed ERM law is insufficient for effectively reducing PM2.5. To achieve the required reductions, it is necessary to undertake stricter policies in Seoul and its neighboring regions.

Enhanced regional terrestrial carbon uptake over Korea revealed by atmospheric CO2 measurements from 1999 to 2017.

Understanding changes in terrestrial carbon balance is important to improve our knowledge of the regional carbon cycle and climate change. However, evaluating regional changes in the terrestrial carbon balance is challenging due to the lack of surface flux measurements. This study reveals that the terrestrial carbon uptake over the Republic of Korea has been enhanced from 1999 to 2017 by analyzing long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements at the Anmyeondo Station (36.53°N, 126.32°E) located in the western coast. The influence of terrestrial carbon flux on atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ΔCO2 ) is estimated from the difference of CO2 concentrations that were influenced by the land sector (through easterly winds) and the Yellow Sea sector (through westerly winds). We find a significant trend in ΔCO2 of -4.75 ppm per decade (p < .05) during the vegetation growing season (May through October), suggesting that the regional terrestrial carbon uptake has increased relative to the surrounding ocean areas. Combined analysis with satellite measured normalized difference vegetation index and gross primary production shows that the enhanced carbon uptake is associated with significant nationwide increases in vegetation and its production. Process-based terrestrial model and inverse model simulations estimate that regional terrestrial carbon uptake increases by up to 18.9 and 8.0 Tg C for the study period, accounting for 13.4% and 5.7% of the average annual domestic carbon emissions, respectively. Atmospheric chemical transport model simulations indicate that the enhanced terrestrial carbon sink is the primary reason for the observed ΔCO2 trend rather than anthropogenic emissions and atmospheric circulation changes. Our results highlight the fact that atmospheric CO2 measurements could open up the possibility of detecting regional changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle even where anthropogenic emissions are not negligible.

Impact of urbanization on spring and autumn phenology of deciduous trees in the Seoul Capital Area, South Korea.

Urbanization exerts anthropogenic forcing that affects regional climate and ecosystems. With increasing levels of urbanization associated with urban population growth in the near future, understanding of the impact of urbanization on terrestrial ecosystems is important for predicting future environmental changes. This study evaluates the impact of urbanization on spring and autumn phenology by addressing the relationship between population density and phenology at nine stations in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA), South Korea during 1991-2010. We analyze the spring budburst dates for the six species (Prunus mume, Forsythia koreana, Rhododendron mucronulatum, Prunus yedoensis, Prunus persica, and Prunus pyrifolia) and the leaf coloring date for the two species (Ginkgo biloba and Acer palmatum). Regardless of species, the density of the urban population shows significant negative (positive) relationships with spring (autumn) phenology. In the SCA, urban population increases are related to earlier spring budburst up to 13 days and delayed leaf coloring up to 15 days. The most apparent spring budburst sensitivity is observed in Prunus mume, whereas the most dominant autumn leaf coloring sensitivity is observed in Acer palmatum. The relationship between population density and phenology is supported by the difference in nocturnal temperatures between stations which varies with the population density. Our results suggest that, in addition to global warming, future population growth should be considered in ecosystem assessments of human-induced environmental changes.

Influence of winter precipitation on spring phenology in boreal forests.

Understanding the variations in spring vegetation phenology associated with preseason climate conditions can significantly improve our knowledge on ecosystem dynamics and biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Recent studies have shown that wet winters can delay the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS) in the high latitudes. However, associated underlying mechanisms remain unclear due to the lack of observation sites as well as complex interactions between various climate and ecosystem variables. In this study, the impact of winter precipitation on year-to-year variations of the SOS in boreal forests from 1982 to 2005 was investigated. Two experiments were performed using the Community Land Model version 4.5. In the control experiment, observed precipitation was used; in the sensitivity experiment, precipitation in the year 1982 was repeated throughout the period. The SOS in the control experiment shows high temporal correlations with the SOS estimated from the satellite-retrieved leaf area index, indicating that the land model is capable of simulating realistic response of vegetation to interannual climate variability. The effects of winter precipitation on the SOS are examined by comparing the two model experiments for wet- and dry winters. After wet winters, the SOS was delayed by 2.7 days over 70.1% of the boreal forests than after dry winters; this accounts for 42.5% of the interannual variation in the SOS. The SOS delay is related to the decrease in the growing degree-days (GDD) based on soil temperatures, suggesting that the effects of heat exposure on vegetation growth is strongly modulated by winter precipitation. The GDD decrease is related to both the increase in snowmelt heat flux and reduced absorption of solar radiation, which are proportional to the amount of winter precipitation and the ratio of short plants to tall trees, respectively. Our results provide a physical basis for the winter precipitation-SOS relationship, suggesting that an increase in winter precipitation can alleviate strong advancing trends in spring vegetation growth in conjunction with global warming even for temperature-limited ecosystems.

Temporal pattern classification of PM2.5 chemical compositions in Seoul, Korea using K-means clustering analysis.

Particulate matter with a diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is a complex mixture of particles with a variety of compositions potentially including sulfate ions (SO42-), nitrate ions (NO3-), ammonium ions (NH4+), organic and inorganic elemental carbon, and metals. Here, the temporal composition evolution of PM2.5 was analyzed to characterize its emission source, origin, and external influences. The concentrations of wintertime PM2.5 chemical compositions in Seoul, Korea during the period of 2012-2021 were classified into four representative clusters using a K-means cluster analysis method. Cluster 1 exhibited high concentrations of NO3- and NH4+ ions mainly due to the prevalence of emissions from domestic manure and fertilizer sources in the northeast. High concentrations of these two ions are conducive to generation of ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) through atmospheric chemical reactions, resulting in relatively long-lasting high PM2.5 concentrations in Seoul. In cluster 2, high concentrations of SO42-, vanadium, and nickel were observed in frequent south-westerly winds, indicating the domestic influence of industrial facilities. Cluster 3 showed high concentrations of potassium ions and organic carbon, highlighting a pronounced external influence transported from China via prevailing westerly winds. Cluster 4 showed low PM2.5 concentrations accompanied by strong winds in warm environments, which are uncommon in winter. This study revealed that the air quality in Seoul, which was influenced by many factors, could be classified into four representative patterns. Our results provide insights into the emission sources, major influences, and responsible mechanisms of high PM2.5 concentrations in Seoul, which can help with air quality policies.

Space observations of cold-cloud phase change.

This study examines the vertically resolved cloud measurements from the cloud-aerosol lidar with orthogonal polarization instrument on Aqua satellite from June 2006 through May 2007 to estimate the extent to which the mixed cloud-phase composition can vary according to the ambient temperature, an important concern for the uncertainty in calculating cloud radiative effects. At -20 degrees C, the global average fraction of supercooled clouds in the total cloud population is found to be about 50% in the data period. Between -10 and -40 degrees C, the fraction is smaller at lower temperatures. However, there are appreciable regional and temporal deviations from the global mean (> +/- 20%) at the isotherm. In the analysis with coincident dust aerosol data from the same instrument, it appears that the variation in the supercooled cloud fraction is negatively correlated with the frequencies of dust aerosols at the -20 degrees C isotherm. This result suggests a possibility that dust particles lifted to the cold cloud layer effectively glaciate supercooled clouds. Observations of radiative flux from the clouds and earth's radiant energy system instrument aboard Terra satellite, as well as radiative transfer model simulations, show that the 20% variation in the supercooled cloud fraction is quantitatively important in cloud radiative effects, especially in shortwave, which are 10-20 W m(-2) for regions of mixed-phase clouds affected by dust. In particular, our results demonstrate that dust, by glaciating supercooled water, can decrease albedo, thus compensating for the increase in albedo due to the dust aerosols themselves. This has important implications for the determination of climate sensitivity.

Critical contribution of moisture to the air quality deterioration in a warm and humid weather.

The deterioration of air quality that threatens human health is recognized as focal compound hazard. Here, decisive thermodynamic conditions for activation of secondary aerosol formation have been investigated focused on Korea. In a dry environment with relative humidity < 60%, gas phase reaction to form fine particles depended largely on surface temperature. In a wet environment (relative humidity ≥ 60%), however, aqueous phase reaction of secondary inorganic aerosols, which are sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium, accounting for 67% of the total aerosol mass, was more activated. Thus, humidity is as important as temperature in the secondary production of aerosol; air quality often worsened when a low-pressure system was predominant over the Korean Peninsula. It is rather different from the general synoptic conditions of high concentrations of particulate matters characterized by high pressure and atmospheric stagnation. This study suggests additional favorable condition and responsible mechanism of air quality hazards that may be frequent in future.

Responses of two invasive plants under various microclimate conditions in the Seoul metropolitan region.

The possible consequences of global warming on plant communities and ecosystems have wide-ranging ramifications. We examined how environmental change affects plant growth as a function of the variations in the microclimate along an urban-suburban climate gradient for two allergy-inducing, invasive plants, Humulus japonicus and Ambrosia artemisiifolia var. elatior. The environmental factors and plant growth responses were measured at two urban sites (Gangbuk and Seongbuk) and two suburban sites (Goyang and Incheon) around Seoul, South Korea. The mean temperatures and CO(2) concentrations differed significantly between the urban (14.8 °C and 439 ppm CO(2)) and suburban (13.0 °C and 427 ppm CO(2)) sites. The soil moisture and nitrogen contents of the suburban sites were higher than those at the urban sites, especially for the Goyang site. The two invasive plants showed significantly higher biomasses and nitrogen contents at the two urban sites. We conducted experiments in a greenhouse to confirm the responses of the plants to increased temperatures, and we found consistently higher growth rates under conditions of higher temperatures. Because we controlled the other factors, the better performance of the two invasive plants appears to be primarily attributable to their responses to temperature. Our study demonstrates that even small temperature changes in the environment can confer significant competitive advantages to invasive species. As habitats become urbanized and warmer, these invasive plants should be able to displace native species, which will adversely affect people living in these areas.

PM2.5 Forecast in Korea using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Model.

The National Institute of Environmental Research, under the Ministry of Environment of Korea, provides two-day forecasts, through AirKorea, of the concentration of particulate matter with diameters of ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) in terms of four grades (low, moderate, high, and very high) over 19 districts nationwide. Particulate grades are subjectively designated by human forecasters based on forecast results from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and artificial intelligence (AI) models in conjunction with weather patterns. This study evaluates forecasts from the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm relative to those from CMAQ-solely and AirKorea using observations from 2019. The skills of the one-day PM2.5 forecasts over the 19 districts were 39-70% for CMAQ, 72-79% for LSTM, and 73-80% for AirKorea; the AI forecasts showed comparable skills to the human forecasters at AirKorea. The one-day forecast skill levels of high and very high PM2.5 pollution grades are 31-98%, 31-74%, and 39-81% for the CMAQ-solely, the LSTM, and the AirKorea forecasts, respectively. Despite good skills for forecasting the high and very high events, CMAQ-solely forecasts also generate substantially higher false alarm rates (up to 86%) than the LSTM and AirKorea forecasts (up to 58%). Hence, applying only the LSTM model to the CMAQ forecasts can yield reasonable forecast skill levels comparable to the operational AirKorea forecasts that elaborately combine the CMAQ model, AI models, and human forecasters. The present results suggest that applications of appropriate AI models can greatly enhance PM2.5 forecast skills for Korea in a more objective way. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13143-022-00293-2.

Erratic Asian summer monsoon 2020: COVID-19 lockdown initiatives possible cause for these episodes?

The summer (June through September) monsoon 2020 has been very erratic with episodes of heavy and devastating rains, landslides and catastrophic winds over South Asia (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh), East Asia (China, Korea, and Japan), and Southeast Asia (Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia). The withdrawal of the summer monsoon over India was delayed by 2 weeks. The monsoon season over East Asia has been the longest. China recorded a Dam burst in the twentieth century. Furthermore, the Korean Peninsula has experienced back-to-back severe tropical cyclones. Could the lockdown activities initiate to control the COVID-19 spread a possible cause for these major episodes? The strict enforcement of the lockdown regulations has led to a considerable reduction of air pollutants-dust and aerosols throughout the world. A recent study based on satellites and merged products has documented a statistically significant mean reduction of about 20, 8, and 50% in nitrogen dioxide, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and PM2.5 concentrations, respectively over the megacities across the globe. Our analysis reveals a considerable reduction of about 20% in AOD over South as well as over East Asia, more-over East Asia than over South Asia. The reduced aerosols have impacted the strength of the incoming solar radiation as evidenced by enhanced warming, more-over the land than the oceans. The differential warming over the land and the ocean has resulted in the amplification of the meridional ocean-land thermal contrast and strengthening of the monsoon flow. These intense features have supported the surplus transport of moisture from the oceans towards the main lands. Some similarity between the anomalous rainfall pattern and the anomalous AOD pattern is discernable. In particular, the enhancement of rainfall, the reduction in AOD and the surface temperature warming match very well over two regions one over West-Central India and the other over the Yangzte River Valley. Results further reveal that the heavy rains over the Yangzte River Valley could be associated with the preceding reduced aerosols, while the heavy rains over West-Central India could be associated with reduced aerosols and also due to the surface temperature warming.

Correction to: Erratic Asian summer monsoon 2020: COVID-19 lockdown initiatives possible cause for these episodes?

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06042-x.].

Enhance seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 by the changing Southern Ocean carbon sink.

The enhanced seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 has been viewed so far primarily as a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. Yet, analyses of atmospheric CO2 records from 49 stations between 1980 and 2018 reveal substantial trends and variations in this amplitude globally. While no significant trends can be discerned before 2000 in most places, strong positive trends emerge after 2000 in the southern high latitudes. Using factorial simulations with an atmospheric transport model and analyses of surface ocean Pco2 observations, we show that the increase is best explained by the onset of increasing seasonality of air-sea CO2 exchange over the Southern Ocean around 2000. Underlying these changes is the long-term ocean acidification trend that tends to enhance the seasonality of the air-sea fluxes, but this trend is modified by the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. The seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 thus emerge as a sensitive recorder of the variations of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Assessment and valuation of health impacts of fine particulate matter during COVID-19 lockdown: a comprehensive study of tropical and sub tropical countries.

A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to challenge the whole world. The disease has claimed many fatalities as it has transcended from one country to another since it was first discovered in China in late 2019. To prevent further morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19, most of the countries initiated a countrywide lockdown. While physical distancing and lockdowns helped in curbing the spread of this novel coronavirus, it led to massive economic losses for the nations. Positive impacts have been observed due to lockdown in terms of improved air quality of the nations. In the current research, ten tropical and subtropical countries have been analysed from multiple angles, including air pollution, assessment and valuation of health impacts and economic loss of countries during COVID-19 lockdown. Countries include Brazil, India, Iran, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Validated Simplified Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm (SARA) binning model is used on data collated from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for particulate matters with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) for all the countries for the month of January to May 2019 and 2020. The concentration results of PM2.5 show that air pollution has drastically reduced in 2020 post lockdown for all countries. The highest average concentration obtained by converting aerosol optical depth (AOD) for 2020 is observed for Thailand as 121.9 µg/m3 and the lowest for Mexico as 36.27 µg/m3. As air pollution is found to decrease in the April and May months of 2020 for nearly all countries, they are compared with respective previous year values for the same duration to calculate the reduced health burden due to lockdown. The present study estimates that cumulative about 100.9 Billion US$ are saved due to reduced air pollution externalities, which are about 25% of the cumulative economic loss of 435.9 Billion US$.

Projections of heat stress and associated work performance over India in response to global warming.

Summertime heat stress future projections from multi-model mean of 18 CMIP5 models show unprecedented increasing levels in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios over India. The estimated heat stress is found to have more impact on the coastal areas of India having exposure to more frequent days of extreme caution to danger category along with the increased probability of occurrence. The explicit amount of change in temperature, increase in the duration and intensity of warm days along with the modulation in large scale circulation in future are seemingly connected to the increasing levels of heat stress over India. A decline of 30 to 40% in the work performance is projected over India by the end of the century due to the elevated heat stress levels which pose great challenges to the country policy makers to design the safety mechanisms and to protect people working under continuous extreme hot weather conditions.

Influence of vertical wind shear on wind- and rainfall areas of tropical cyclones making landfall over South Korea.

The wind- and rainfall areas of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over South Korea were examined for the period 1998-2013 by using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data. Here, the wind- and rainfall areas were defined as the regions where wind speeds and precipitation rates exceed 14 m s-1 and 80 mm day-1 within 1000 km from the TC center, respectively. In general, TCs show significantly asymmetric wind and rainfall structures, with strong vertical wind shear appearing over South Korea during the landfall period. The rainfall area significantly increases with environmental vertical wind shear while the wind area is not sensitive to it. Composite analyses of the cases of strong and weak vertical wind shear confirm that the increase of rainfall area is related to the asymmetric convection (rising/sinking motion in the downshear-left/upshear-right side) induced by the vertical wind shear. This work highlights the importance of local atmospheric environment in determining the area primarily affected by strong winds or heavy rainfall during TC landfalls.

Urbanization may reduce the risk of frost damage to spring flowers: A case study of two shrub species in South Korea.

Regional warming, owing to urbanization, leads to earlier spring phenological events and may expose plants to hard freeze damage. This study examined the influence of urbanization on the risk of frost damage to spring flowers in South Korea from 1973 to 2015. For the analysis period, we categorized 25 cities into two groups: those showing rapid population growth (rPG) ≥ 200,000, including 13 cities, and those showing no or decreased population growth (nPG), including 12 cities. We then investigated the time from the last frost dates (LFDs) in spring to the first flowering dates (FFDs) for each group. The rPG group experienced significant spring warming of 0.47°C per decade, resulting in earlier LFDs and FFDs. For this group, the advancement of LFD was more rapid than that of FFD, and the days between these two dates increased from 0.42 to 0.47 days per decade, implying a reduced risk of frost damage. Spring warming and the advancement of FFDs and LFDs were relatively small for the nPG group, and the LFDs were rather delayed. Consequently, the days between LFDs and FFDs were reduced from -1.05 to -1.67 days per decade, indicating an increased risk of frost damage. The contrasting changes in the frost-damage risk between the two city groups can be attributed to distinct urban warming at night, which makes the LFDs substantially earlier in the rPG group. Therefore, this study suggests that the warming associated with urbanization may lessen the risk of spring frost damage to plants in rapidly growing urban areas.

Spatial and temporal changes in leaf coloring date of Acer palmatum and Ginkgo biloba in response to temperature increases in South Korea.

Understanding shifts in autumn phenology associated with climate changes is critical for preserving forest ecosystems. This study examines the changes in the leaf coloring date (LCD) of two temperate deciduous tree species, Acer palmatum (Acer) and Ginkgo biloba (Ginkgo), in response to surface air temperature (Ts) changes at 54 stations of South Korea for the period 1989-2007. The variations of Acer and Ginkgo in South Korea are very similar: they show the same mean LCD of 295th day of the year and delays of about 0.45 days year-1 during the observation period. The delaying trend is closely correlated (correlation coefficient > 0.77) with increases in Ts in mid-autumn by 2.8 days °C-1. It is noted that the LCD delaying and temperature sensitivity (days °C-1) for both tree species show negligible dependences on latitudes and elevations. Given the significant LCD-Ts relation, we project LCD changes for 2016-35 and 2046-65 using a process-based model forced by temperature from climate model simulation. The projections indicate that the mean LCD would be further delayed by 3.2 (3.7) days in 2016-35 (2046-65) due to mid-autumn Ts increases. This study suggests that the mid-autumn warming is largely responsible for the observed LCD changes in South Korea and will intensify the delaying trends in the future.

Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections.

Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

Evaluating the predictability of PM10 grades in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on synoptic patterns.

As of November 2014, the Korean Ministry of Environment (KME) has been forecasting the concentration of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 10 µm (PM10) classified into four grades: low (PM10 ≤ 30 µg m-3), moderate (30 < PM10 ≤ 80 µg m-3), high (80 < PM10 ≤ 150 µg m-3), and very high (PM10 > 150 µg m-3). The KME operational center generates PM10 forecasts using statistical and chemistry-transport models, but the overall performance and the hit rate for the four PM10 grades has not previously been evaluated. To provide a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system, we have developed a neural network model based on the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields such as geopotential height, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind. Hindcast of the four PM10 grades in Seoul, Korea was performed for the cold seasons (October-March) of 2001-2014 when the high and very high PM10 grades are frequently observed. Because synoptic patterns of the meteorological fields are distinctive for each PM10 grade, these fields were adopted and quantified as predictors in the form of cosine similarities to train the neural network model. Using these predictors in conjunction with the PM10 concentration in Seoul from the day before prediction as an additional predictor, an overall hit rate of 69% was achieved; the hit rates for the low, moderate, high, and very high PM10 grades were 33%, 83%, 45%, and 33%, respectively. Our findings also suggest that the synoptic patterns of meteorological variables are reliable predictors for the identification of the favorable conditions for each PM10 grade, as well as for the transboundary transport of PM10 from China. This evaluation of PM10 predictability can be reliably used as a statistical reference and further, complement to the current air quality forecasting system.

Satellite data-based phenological evaluation of the nationwide reforestation of South Korea.

Through the past 60 years, forests, now of various age classes, have been established in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula through nationwide efforts to reestablish forests since the Korean War (1950-53), during which more than 65% of the nation's forest was destroyed. Careful evaluation of long-term changes in vegetation growth after reforestation is one of the essential steps to ensuring sustainable forest management. This study investigated nationwide variations in vegetation phenology using satellite-based growing season estimates for 1982-2008. The start of the growing season calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) agrees reasonably with the ground-observed first flowering date both temporally (correlation coefficient, r = 0.54) and spatially (r = 0.64) at the 95% confidence level. Over the entire 27-year period, South Korea, on average, experienced a lengthening of the growing season of 4.5 days decade(-1), perhaps due to recent global warming. The lengthening of the growing season is attributed mostly to delays in the end of the growing season. The retrieved nationwide growing season data were used to compare the spatial variations in forest biomass carbon density with the time-averaged growing season length for 61 forests. Relatively higher forest biomass carbon density was observed over the regions having a longer growing season, especially for the regions dominated by young (<30 year) forests. These results imply that a lengthening of the growing season related to the ongoing global warming may have positive impacts on carbon sequestration, an important aspect of large-scale forest management for sustainable development.