Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes.

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance-impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short-term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance-prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes.

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea-level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18-year marsh-bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea-level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (-2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from -4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.

Seasonal fecundity is not related to geographic position across a species' global range despite a central peak in abundance.

The range of a species is determined by the balance of its demographic rates across space. Population growth rates are widely hypothesized to be greatest at the geographic center of the species range, but indirect empirical support for this pattern using abundance as a proxy has been mixed, and demographic rates are rarely quantified on a large spatial scale. Therefore, the texture of how demographic rates of a species vary over its range remains an open question. We quantified seasonal fecundity of populations spanning the majority of the global range of a single species, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), which demonstrates a peak of abundance at the geographic center of its range. We used a novel, population projection method to estimate seasonal fecundity inclusive of seasonal and spatial variation in life history traits that contribute to seasonal fecundity. We replicated our study over 3 years, and compared seasonal fecundity to latitude and distance among plots. We observed large-scale patterns in some life history traits that contribute to seasonal fecundity, such as an increase in clutch size with latitude. However, we observed no relationship between latitude and seasonal fecundity. Instead, fecundity varied greatly among plots separated by as little as 1 km. Our results do not support the hypothesis that demographic rates are highest at the geographic and abundance center of a species range, but rather they suggest that local drivers strongly influence saltmarsh sparrow fecundity across their global range.

Demographic analysis demonstrates systematic but independent spatial variation in abiotic and biotic stressors across 59 percent of a global species range.

The balance of abiotic and biotic stressors experienced by a species likely varies across its range, resulting in spatially heterogeneous limitations on the species' demographic rates. Support for spatial variation in stressors (often latitudinal gradients) has been found in many species, usually with physiological or correlative occupancy data, but it has rarely been estimated directly with demographic data. We collected demographic data from 23 sites spanning the majority of the Saltmarsh Sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus) breeding range. Using data from 837 nests, we quantified the abiotic and biotic variables most important to nest survival, which is the dominant driver of both fecundity and population growth rate in this species. We separately estimated daily nest failure probability due to nest depredation (biotic stressor) and nest flooding (abiotic stressor), which collectively account for almost all nest failure in the species. Nest depredation decreased with latitude, whereas nest flooding was not related to latitude. Instead, nest flooding was best predicted by a combination of maximum high tide, extremity of rare flooding events, and date. For a single vital rate, we observed predictable variation in competing biotic and abiotic stressors across this species range. We observed that biotic and abiotic stressors were geographically independent, both on a large spatial scale and locally. Our results suggest that stressors on the fecundity of Saltmarsh Sparrow vary systematically across its range, but independently. The observed patterns of biotic and abiotic stress provide information for efforts to conserve the Saltmarsh Sparrow, which is considered threatened. Further, understanding the effects that different stressors, and their interactions, have on demographic rates is necessary to unravel the processes that govern species distributions and to effectively conserve biodiversity in the face of global change.

El balance de factores de estrés abióticos y bióticos para una especie probablemente varía a través de su rango, dando como resultado limitaciones espaciales heterogéneas en las tasas demográficas de la especie. Se ha verificado la existencia de variación espacial en los factores de estrés (usualmente gradientes latitudinales) para muchas especies, usualmente con datos fisiológicos o de ocupación correlativa, pero raramente se ha estimado directamente con datos demográficos. Colectamos datos demográficos de 23 sitios abarcando la mayoría del rango reproductivo de Ammodramus caudacutus. Usando datos de 837 nidos, cuantificamos las variables abióticas y bióticas más importantes para la supervivencia del nido, que es la variable que determina tanto la fecundidad como la tasa de crecimiento poblacional en esta especie. Por otra parte, estimamos la probabilidad de fracaso diario del nido debido a la depredación del nido (factor de estrés biótico) e inundación del nido (factor de estrés abiótico), que juntos representaron casi todos los fracasos del nido en esta especie. La depredación del nido disminuyó con la latitud mientras que la inundación del nido no se relacionó con la latitud. En cambio, la inundación del nido se predijo mejor por una combinación del máximo superior de la marea, la extremidad de los eventos de inundación raros y la fecha. Considerando una sola tasa vital, observamos variación predecible en los factores de estrés biótico y abiótico que compiten a través del rango de la especie. Observamos que los factores de estrés biótico y abiótico fueron geográficamente independientes tanto a una escala espacial grande como a la escala local. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los factores de estrés relacionados a la fecundidad de A. caudacutus varían sistemática pero independientemente a través de su rango. Los patrones observados de estrés biótico y abiótico brindan información para los esfuerzos de conservación de A. caudacutus, una especie considerada amenazada. Más aún, es necesario entender los efectos que los diferentes factores de estrés y sus interacciones tienen en las tasas demográficas para desenmarañar los procesos que gobiernan las distribuciones de las especies y para conservar la biodiversidad de manera eficiente en miras al cambio global.

Mercury in breeding saltmarsh sparrows (Ammodramus caudacutus caudacutus).

Environmental mercury exposure of birds through atmospheric deposition and watershed point-source contamination is an issue of increasing concern globally. The saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus) is of high conservation concern throughout its range and the potential threat of mercury exposure adds to other anthropogenic stressors, including sea level rise. To assess methylmercury exposure we sampled blood of the northern nominal subspecies of saltmarsh sparrows (A. c. caudacutus) nesting in 21 tidal marshes throughout most of the species' breeding range. Blood of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) was sampled concurrently at three of these sites to provide a comparison with a well-studied songbird that is a model species in ecotoxicology. Arithmetic means (±1 SD) ranged from 0.24 ± 0.06 µg g(-1) wet weight (ww) in Connecticut to 1.80 ± 0.14 µg g(-1) ww in Massachusetts, differing significantly among sites. Comparison to tree swallows indicates that mercury exposure is significantly higher in saltmarsh sparrows, making them a more appropriate bioindicator for assessing risk to methylmercury toxicity in tidal marsh ecosystems.

Effectiveness of automated external defibrillators in high schools in greater Boston.

A program using a strategy of donating a single automatic external defibrillator to 35 schools in the Boston area resulted in compliance with American Heart Association guidelines on automatic external defibrillator placement and training and 2 successful resuscitations from sudden cardiac arrest. Participating schools indicated a high degree of satisfaction with the program.

Restenosis after eversion vs patch closure carotid endarterectomy.

OBJECTIVES: Recurrent stenosis after carotid endarterectomy (CEA), previously reported to occur in 1%/year after operation, is the finite limitation of CEA. Eversion endarterectomy has a perceived lower incidence of recurrent stenosis, although data to support this contention are conflicting. The goal of the present study was to compare the late anatomic results of patch closure (PC) vs eversion CEA. METHODS: Between January 1, 1995 and June 30, 2005, 950 CEA were performed by the senior author with adoption of eversion (EV) as the primary technique as of January 1, 2001. With minimum of 1-year follow-up by study inclusion criteria, complete follow-up data (including a duplex scan) was available for 155 PC and 135 EV patients. Incidence of moderate (50% to 70%) and severe (>70%) restenosis was examined at < or =2 months and >1 year after operation. Study end-points included late stroke, survival, and freedom from restenosis (moderate and severe) and were assessed by actuarial methods. RESULTS: There were no differences in relevant demographic/clinical parameters, indication for surgery (69% overall asymptomatic) or early perioperative stroke/death (1.1% overall; P = .25) between PC and EV. After correction for different mean follow-up intervals (PC = 5.5 years vs EV = 3.5 years) by actuarial methods, there was no significant difference in late moderate (P = .91) or severe (P = .54) recurrent stenosis between PC and EV. In the group of patients with at least 1-year follow-up, 11/290 (3.8%) patients (4/135 EV, 7/155 PC; P = .39) required reintervention on their operated carotid artery at a cumulative follow-up interval of 4.5 years. Three strokes (3/290; 1.1%) occurred during late follow-up, all in the PC group, with only one related to the operated carotid artery. Late survival was similar between EV and PC, (P = .86). Female gender (odds ratio [OR] 3.72[1.02-13.5], P = .046) was associated with severe restenosis irrespective of surgical technique. Univariate analysis also showed that female gender (OR 7.6[CI: 0.88-66.7], P = .042) was associated with late stroke. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that restenosis rates are similar between eversion and patch CEA and likely represent biological remodeling phenomenon rather than technical variations of operations. While EV offers distinct advantages in certain anatomic circumstances, adoption of EV with the hope of decreasing restenosis is not warranted.

Persistent type 2 endoleak after endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm is associated with adverse late outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: Type 2 endoleak occurs in up to 20% of patients after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR), but its long-term significance is debated. We reviewed our experience to evaluate late outcomes associated with type 2 endoleak. METHODS: During the interval January 1994 to December 2005, 873 patients underwent EVAR. Computed tomography (CT) scan assessment was performed < or =1 month of the operation and at least annually thereafter. Sequential 6-month CT scan follow-up was adopted for those patients with persistent type 2 endoleaks, and reintervention was limited to those with sac enlargement >5 mm. Study end points included overall survival, aneurysm sac growth, reintervention rate, conversion to open repair, and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture. Preoperative variables and anatomic factors potentially associated with these endpoints were assessed using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: We identified 164 (18.9%) patients with early (at the first follow-up CT scan) type 2 endoleaks. Mean follow-up was 32.6 months. In 131 (79.9%) early type 2 endoleaks, complete and permanent leak resolution occurred < or =6 months. Endoleaks persisted in 33 patients (3.8% of total patients; 20.1% of early type 2 endoleaks) for >6 months. Transient type 2 endoleak (those that resolved < or =6 months of EVAR) was not associated with adverse late outcomes. In contrast, persistent endoleak was associated with several adverse outcomes. AAA-related death was not significantly different between patients with and without a type 2 endoleak (P = .78). When evaluating patients with no early endoleak vs persistent endoleak, freedom from sac expansion at 1, 3, and 5 years was 99.2%, 97.6%, and 94.9% (no leak) vs 88.1%, 48.0%, and 28.0% (persistent) (P < .001). Patients with persistent endoleak were at increased risk for aneurysm sac growth vs patients without endoleak (odds ratio [OR], 25.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] 11.8 to 57.4; P < .001). Patients with a persistent endoleak also had a significantly increased rate of reintervention (OR, 19.0; 95% CI, 8.0 to 44.7); P < .001). Finally, aneurysm rupture occurred in 4 patients with type 2 endoleaks. Freedom from rupture at 1, 3, and 5 years for patients with a persistent type 2 endoleak was 96.8%, 96.8%, and 91.1% vs 99.8%, 98.5%, and 97.4% for patients without a type 2 endoleak. Multivariate analysis demonstrated persistent type 2 endoleak to be a significant predictor of aneurysm rupture (P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Persistent type 2 endoleak is associated with an increased incidence of adverse outcomes, including aneurysm sac growth, the need for conversion to open repair, reintervention rate, and rupture. These data suggest that patients with persistent type 2 endoleak (>6 months) should be considered for more frequent follow-up or a more aggressive approach to reintervention.

Long-term outcomes after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: the first decade.

OBJECTIVE: The proper role of endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) remains controversial, largely due to uncertain late results. We reviewed a 12-year experience with EVAR to document late outcomes. METHODS: During the interval January 7, 1994 through December 31, 2005, 873 patients underwent EVAR utilizing 10 different stent graft devices. Primary outcomes examined included operative mortality, aneurysm rupture, aneurysm-related mortality, open surgical conversion, and late survival rates. The incidence of endoleak, migration, aneurysm enlargement, and graft patency was also determined. Finally, the need for reintervention and success of such secondary procedures were evaluated. Kaplan-Meier and multivariate methodology were used for analysis. RESULTS: Mean patient age was 75.7 years (range, 49-99 years); 81.4% were male. Mean follow-up was 27 months; 39.3% of patients had 2 or more major comorbidities, and 19.5% would be categorized as unfit for open repair. On an intent-to-treat basis, device deployment was successful in 99.3%. Thirty-day mortality was 1.8%. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, freedom from AAA rupture was 97.6% at 5 years and 94% at 9 years. Significant risk factors for late AAA rupture included female gender (odds ratio OR, 6.9; P = 0.004) and device-related endoleak (OR, 16.06; P = 0.009). Aneurysm-related death was avoided in 96.1% of patients, with the need for any reintervention (OR, 5.7 P = 0.006), family history of aneurysmal disease (OR, 9.5; P = 0.075), and renal insufficiency (OR, 7.1; P = 0.003) among its most important predictors. 87 (10%) patients required reintervention, with 92% of such procedures being catheter-based and a success rate of 84%. Significant predictors of reintervention included use of first-generation devices (OR, 1.2; P < 0.01) and late onset endoleak (OR, 64; P < 0.001). Current generation stent grafts correlated with significantly improved outcomes. Cumulative freedom from conversion to open repair was 93.3% at 5 through 9 years, with the need for prior reintervention (OR, 16.7; P = 0.001) its most important predictor. Cumulative survival was 52% at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: EVAR using contemporary devices is a safe, effective, and durable method to prevent AAA rupture and aneurysm-related death. Assuming suitable AAA anatomy, these data justify a broad application of EVAR across a wide spectrum of patients.