Learning Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes from Longitudinal Data.

Studies often report estimates of the average treatment effect (ATE). While the ATE summarizes the effect of a treatment on average, it does not provide any information about the effect of treatment within any individual. A treatment strategy that uses an individual's information to tailor treatment to maximize benefit is known as an optimal dynamic treatment rule (ODTR). Treatment, however, is typically not limited to a single point in time; consequently, learning an optimal rule for a time-varying treatment may involve not just learning the extent to which the comparative treatments' benefits vary across the characteristics of individuals, but also learning the extent to which the comparative treatments' benefits vary as relevant circumstances evolve within an individual. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for estimating ODTR from longitudinal observational and clinical trial data for applied researchers. We describe an approach that uses a doubly-robust unbiased transformation of the conditional average treatment effect. We then learn a time-varying ODTR for when to increase buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX) dose to minimize return-to-regular-opioid-use among patients with opioid use disorder. Our analysis highlights the utility of ODTRs in the context of sequential decision making: the learned ODTR outperforms a clinically defined strategy.

Multi-omic comparative analysis of COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening condition characterized by hypoxemia and poor lung compliance, is associated with high mortality. ARDS induced by COVID-19 has similar clinical presentations and pathological manifestations as non-COVID-19 ARDS. However, COVID-19 ARDS is associated with a more protracted inflammatory respiratory failure compared to traditional ARDS. Therefore, a comprehensive molecular comparison of ARDS of different etiologies groups may pave the way for more specific clinical interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this study, we compared COVID-19 ARDS (n = 43) and bacterial sepsis-induced (non-COVID-19) ARDS (n = 24) using multi-omic plasma profiles covering 663 metabolites, 1,051 lipids, and 266 proteins. To address both between- and within- ARDS group variabilities we followed two approaches. First, we identified 706 molecules differently abundant between the two ARDS etiologies, revealing more than 40 biological processes differently regulated between the two groups. From these processes, we assembled a cascade of therapeutically relevant pathways downstream of sphingosine metabolism. The analysis suggests a possible overactivation of arginine metabolism involved in long-term sequelae of ARDS and highlights the potential of JAK inhibitors to improve outcomes in bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS. The second part of our study involved the comparison of the two ARDS groups with respect to clinical manifestations. Using a data-driven multi-omic network, we identified signatures of acute kidney injury (AKI) and thrombocytosis within each ARDS group. The AKI-associated network implicated mitochondrial dysregulation which might lead to post-ARDS renal-sequalae. The thrombocytosis-associated network hinted at a synergy between prothrombotic processes, namely IL-17, MAPK, TNF signaling pathways, and cell adhesion molecules. Thus, we speculate that combination therapy targeting two or more of these processes may ameliorate thrombocytosis-mediated hypercoagulation. CONCLUSION: We present a first comprehensive molecular characterization of differences between two ARDS etiologies-COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis. Further investigation into the identified pathways will lead to a better understanding of the pathophysiological processes, potentially enabling novel therapeutic interventions.

Independent and joint contributions of physical disability and chronic pain to incident opioid use disorder and opioid overdose among Medicaid patients.

BACKGROUND: Chronic pain has been extensively explored as a risk factor for opioid misuse, resulting in increased focus on opioid prescribing practices for individuals with such conditions. Physical disability sometimes co-occurs with chronic pain but may also represent an independent risk factor for opioid misuse. However, previous research has not disentangled whether disability contributes to risk independent of chronic pain. METHODS: Here, we estimate the independent and joint adjusted associations between having a physical disability and co-occurring chronic pain condition at time of Medicaid enrollment on subsequent 18-month risk of incident opioid use disorder (OUD) and non-fatal, unintentional opioid overdose among non-elderly, adult Medicaid beneficiaries (2016-2019). RESULTS: We find robust evidence that having a physical disability approximately doubles the risk of incident OUD or opioid overdose, and physical disability co-occurring with chronic pain increases the risks approximately sixfold as compared to having neither chronic pain nor disability. In absolute numbers, those with neither a physical disability nor chronic pain condition have a 1.8% adjusted risk of incident OUD over 18 months of follow-up, those with physical disability alone have an 2.9% incident risk, those with chronic pain alone have a 3.6% incident risk, and those with co-occurring physical disability and chronic pain have a 11.1% incident risk. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that those with a physical disability should receive increased attention from the medical and healthcare communities to reduce their risk of opioid misuse and attendant negative outcomes.

Causal survival analysis under competing risks using longitudinal modified treatment policies.

Longitudinal modified treatment policies (LMTP) have been recently developed as a novel method to define and estimate causal parameters that depend on the natural value of treatment. LMTPs represent an important advancement in causal inference for longitudinal studies as they allow the non-parametric definition and estimation of the joint effect of multiple categorical, ordinal, or continuous treatments measured at several time points. We extend the LMTP methodology to problems in which the outcome is a time-to-event variable subject to a competing event that precludes observation of the event of interest. We present identification results and non-parametric locally efficient estimators that use flexible data-adaptive regression techniques to alleviate model misspecification bias, while retaining important asymptotic properties such as [Formula: see text]-consistency. We present an application to the estimation of the effect of the time-to-intubation on acute kidney injury amongst COVID-19 hospitalized patients, where death by other causes is taken to be the competing event.

Urine-based multi-omic comparative analysis of COVID-19 and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening condition during critical illness, is a common complication of COVID-19. It can originate from various disease etiologies, including severe infections, major injury, or inhalation of irritants. ARDS poses substantial clinical challenges due to a lack of etiology-specific therapies, multisystem involvement, and heterogeneous, poor patient outcomes. A molecular comparison of ARDS groups holds the potential to reveal common and distinct mechanisms underlying ARDS pathogenesis. METHODS: We performed a comparative analysis of urine-based metabolomics and proteomics profiles from COVID-19 ARDS patients (n = 42) and bacterial sepsis-induced ARDS patients (n = 17). To this end, we used two different approaches, first we compared the molecular omics profiles between ARDS groups, and second, we correlated clinical manifestations within each group with the omics profiles. RESULTS: The comparison of the two ARDS etiologies identified 150 metabolites and 70 proteins that were differentially abundant between the two groups. Based on these findings, we interrogated the interplay of cell adhesion/extracellular matrix molecules, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction in ARDS pathogenesis through a multi-omic network approach. Moreover, we identified a proteomic signature associated with mortality in COVID-19 ARDS patients, which contained several proteins that had previously been implicated in clinical manifestations frequently linked with ARDS pathogenesis. CONCLUSION: In summary, our results provide evidence for significant molecular differences in ARDS patients from different etiologies and a potential synergy of extracellular matrix molecules, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction in ARDS pathogenesis. The proteomic mortality signature should be further investigated in future studies to develop prediction models for COVID-19 patient outcomes.

Angiopoietin 2 Is Associated with Vascular Necroptosis Induction in Coronavirus Disease 2019 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

Vascular injury is a well-established, disease-modifying factor in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) pathogenesis. Recently, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-induced injury to the vascular compartment has been linked to complement activation, microvascular thrombosis, and dysregulated immune responses. This study sought to assess whether aberrant vascular activation in this prothrombotic context was associated with the induction of necroptotic vascular cell death. To achieve this, proteomic analysis was performed on blood samples from COVID-19 subjects at distinct time points during ARDS pathogenesis (hospitalized at risk, N = 59; ARDS, N = 31; and recovery, N = 12). Assessment of circulating vascular markers in the at-risk cohort revealed a signature of low vascular protein abundance that tracked with low platelet levels and increased mortality. This signature was replicated in the ARDS cohort and correlated with increased plasma angiopoietin 2 levels. COVID-19 ARDS lung autopsy immunostaining confirmed a link between vascular injury (angiopoietin 2) and platelet-rich microthrombi (CD61) and induction of necrotic cell death [phosphorylated mixed lineage kinase domain-like (pMLKL)]. Among recovery subjects, the vascular signature identified patients with poor functional outcomes. Taken together, this vascular injury signature was associated with low platelet levels and increased mortality and can be used to identify ARDS patients most likely to benefit from vascular targeted therapies.

Impact of a Rapid Molecular Test for Klebsiella pneumoniae Carbapenemase and Ceftazidime-Avibactam Use on Outcomes After Bacteremia Caused by Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacterales.

BACKGROUND: Patients with bacteremia due to carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) experience delays until appropriate therapy and high mortality rates. Rapid molecular diagnostics for carbapenemases and new ß-lactam/ß-lactamase inhibitors may improve outcomes. METHODS: We conducted an observational study of patients with CRE bacteremia from 2016 to 2018 at 8 New York and New Jersey medical centers and assessed center-specific clinical microbiology practices. We compared time to receipt of active antimicrobial therapy and mortality between patients whose positive blood cultures underwent rapid molecular testing for the Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC) gene (blaKPC) and patients whose cultures did not undergo this test. CRE isolates underwent antimicrobial susceptibility testing by broth microdilution and carbapenemase profiling by whole-genome sequencing. We also assessed outcomes when ceftazidime-avibactam and polymyxins were used as targeted therapies. RESULTS: Of 137 patients with CRE bacteremia, 89 (65%) had a KPC-producing organism. Patients whose blood cultures underwent blaKPC PCR testing (n = 51) had shorter time until receipt of active therapy (median: 24 vs 50 hours; P = .009) compared with other patients (n = 86) and decreased 14-day (16% vs 37%; P = .007) and 30-day (24% vs 47%; P = .007) mortality. blaKPC PCR testing was associated with decreased 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio: .37; 95% CI: .16-.84) in an adjusted model. The 30-day mortality rate was 10% with ceftazidime-avibactam monotherapy and 31% with polymyxin monotherapy (P = .08). CONCLUSIONS: In a KPC-endemic area, blaKPC PCR testing of positive blood cultures was associated with decreased time until appropriate therapy and decreased mortality for CRE bacteremia, and ceftazidime-avibactam is a reasonable first-line therapy for these infections.

Patient care in rapid-expansion intensive care units during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the unfortunate reality that many hospitals have insufficient intensive care unit (ICU) capacity to meet massive, unanticipated increases in demand. To drastically increase ICU capacity, NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center modified its existing operating rooms and post-anaesthesia care units during the initial expansion phase to accommodate the surge of critically ill patients. METHODS: This retrospective chart review examined patient care in non-standard Expansion ICUs as compared to standard ICUs. We compared clinical data between the two settings to determine whether the expeditious development and deployment of critical care resources during an evolving medical crisis could provide appropriate care. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients were admitted to Expansion ICUs from March 1st to April 30th, 2020 and 343 were admitted to standard ICUs. Most patients were male (70%), White (30%), 45-64 years old (35%), non-smokers (73%), had hypertension (58%), and were hospitalized for a median of 40 days. For patients that died, there was no difference in treatment management, but the Expansion cohort had a higher median ICU length of stay (q = 0.037) and ventilatory length (q = 0.015). The cohorts had similar rates of discharge to home, but the Expansion ICU cohort had higher rates of discharge to a rehabilitation facility and overall lower mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We found no significantly worse outcomes for the Expansion ICU cohort compared to the standard ICU cohort at our institution during the COVID-19 pandemic, which demonstrates the feasibility of providing safe and effective care for patients in an Expansion ICU.

Attributable mortality of acute respiratory distress syndrome: a systematic review, meta-analysis and survival analysis using targeted minimum loss-based estimation.

BACKGROUND: Although acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with high mortality, its direct causal link with death is unclear. Clarifying this link is important to justify costly research on prevention of ARDS. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the attributable mortality, if any, of ARDS. DESIGN: First, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies reporting mortality of critically ill patients with and without ARDS matched for underlying risk factor. Next, we conducted a survival analysis of prospectively collected patient-level data from subjects enrolled in three intensive care unit (ICU) cohorts to estimate the attributable mortality of critically ill septic patients with and without ARDS using a novel causal inference method. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis, 44 studies (47 cohorts) involving 56 081 critically ill patients were included. Mortality was higher in patients with versus without ARDS (risk ratio 2.48, 95% CI 1.86 to 3.30; p<0.001) with a numerically stronger association between ARDS and mortality in trauma than sepsis. In the survival analysis of three ICU cohorts enrolling 1203 critically ill patients, 658 septic patients were included. After controlling for confounders, ARDS was found to increase the mortality rate by 15% (95% CI 3% to 26%; p=0.015). Significant increases in mortality were seen for severe (23%, 95% CI 3% to 44%; p=0.028) and moderate (16%, 95% CI 2% to 31%; p=0.031), but not for mild ARDS. CONCLUSIONS: ARDS has a direct causal link with mortality. Our findings provide information about the extent to which continued funding of ARDS prevention trials has potential to impart survival benefit. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017078313.

Association of plasma mitochondrial DNA with COPD severity and progression in the SPIROMICS cohort.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of mechanism-driven, clinically relevant biomarkers in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mitochondrial dysfunction, a proposed disease mechanism in COPD, is associated with the release of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), but plasma cell-free mtDNA has not been previously examined prospectively for associations with clinical COPD measures. METHODS: P-mtDNA, defined as copy number of mitochondrially-encoded NADH dehydrogenase-1 (MT-ND1) gene, was measured by real-time quantitative PCR in 700 plasma samples from participants enrolled in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort. Associations between p-mtDNA and clinical disease parameters were examined, adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, and for informative loss to follow-up. RESULTS: P-mtDNA levels were higher in participants with mild or moderate COPD, compared to smokers without airflow obstruction, and to participants with severe COPD. Baseline increased p-mtDNA levels were associated with better CAT scores in female smokers without airflow obstruction and female participants with mild or moderate COPD on 1-year follow-up, but worse 6MWD in females with severe COPD. Higher p-mtDNA levels were associated with better 6MWD in male participants with severe COPD. These associations were no longer significant after adjusting for informative loss to follow-up. CONCLUSION: In this study, p-mtDNA levels associated with baseline COPD status but not future changes in clinical COPD measures after accounting for informative loss to follow-up. To better characterize mitochondrial dysfunction as a potential COPD endotype, these results should be confirmed and validated in future studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION:  ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01969344 (SPIROMICS).

Critical carE Database for Advanced Research (CEDAR): An automated method to support intensive care units with electronic health record data.

Patients treated in an intensive care unit (ICU) are critically ill and require life-sustaining organ failure support. Existing critical care data resources are limited to a select number of institutions, contain only ICU data, and do not enable the study of local changes in care patterns. To address these limitations, we developed the Critical carE Database for Advanced Research (CEDAR), a method for automating extraction and transformation of data from an electronic health record (EHR) system. Compared to an existing gold standard of manually collected data at our institution, CEDAR was statistically similar in most measures, including patient demographics and sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores. Additionally, CEDAR automated data extraction obviated the need for manual collection of 550 variables. Critically, during the spring 2020 COVID-19 surge in New York City, a modified version of CEDAR supported pandemic response efforts, including clinical operations and research. Other academic medical centers may find value in using the CEDAR method to automate data extraction from EHR systems to support ICU activities.

A predictive model of clinical deterioration among hospitalized COVID-19 patients by harnessing hospital course trajectories.

From early March through mid-May 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed hospitals in New York City. In anticipation of ventilator shortages and limited ICU bed capacity, hospital operations prioritized the development of prognostic tools to predict clinical deterioration. However, early experience from frontline physicians observed that some patients developed unanticipated deterioration after having relatively stable periods, attesting to the uncertainty of clinical trajectories among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Prediction tools that incorporate clinical variables at one time-point, usually on hospital presentation, are suboptimal for patients with dynamic changes and evolving clinical trajectories. Therefore, our study team developed a machine-learning algorithm to predict clinical deterioration among hospitalized COVID-19 patients by extracting clinically meaningful features from complex longitudinal laboratory and vital sign values during the early period of hospitalization with an emphasis on informative missing-ness. To incorporate the evolution of the disease and clinical practice over the course of the pandemic, we utilized a time-dependent cross-validation strategy for model development. Finally, we validated our prediction model on an external validation cohort of COVID-19 patients served in a demographically distinct population from the training cohort. The main finding of our study is the identification of risk profiles of early, late and no clinical deterioration during the course of hospitalization. While risk prediction models that include simple predictors at ED presentation and clinical judgement are able to identify any deterioration vs. no deterioration, our methodology is able to isolate a particular risk group that remain stable initially but deteriorate at a later stage of the course of hospitalization. We demonstrate the superior predictive performance with the utilization of laboratory and vital sign data during the early period of hospitalization compared to the utilization of data at presentation alone. Our results will allow efficient hospital resource allocation and will motivate research in understanding the late deterioration risk group.

Pain management treatments and opioid use disorder risk in Medicaid patients.

INTRODUCTION: People with chronic pain are at increased risk of opioid-misuse. Less is known about the unique risk conferred by each pain management treatment, as treatments are typically implemented together, confounding their independent effects. This study estimated the extent to which pain management treatments were associated with risk of opioid use disorder (OUD) for those with chronic pain, controlling for baseline demographic and clinical confounding variables and holding other pain management treatments at their observed levels. METHODS: Data were analyzed in 2024 from two chronic pain subgroups within a cohort of non-pregnant Medicaid patients aged 35-64 years, 2016-2019, from 25 states: those with 1) chronic pain and physical disability (CPPD) (N=6,133) or 2) chronic pain without disability (CP) (N=67,438). Nine pain management treatments were considered: prescription opioid i) dose and ii) duration; iii) number of opioid prescribers; opioid co-prescription with iv) benzo- diazepines, v) muscle relaxants, and vi) gabapentinoids; vii) non-opioid pain prescription, viii) physical therapy, and ix) other pain treatment modality. The outcome was OUD risk. RESULTS: Having opioids co-prescribed with gabapentin or benzodiazepine was statistically significantly associated with a 37-45% increased OUD risk for the CP subgroup. Opioid dose and duration also were significantly associated with increased OUD risk in this subgroup. Physical therapy was significantly associated with an 18% decreased risk of OUD in the CP subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Co-prescription of opioids with either gabapentin or benzodiazepines may substantially increase OUD risk. More positively, physical therapy may be a relatively accessible and safe pain management strategy.

Effect of Sepsis on Death as Modified by Solid Organ Transplantation.

Background: Patients who have undergone solid organ transplants (SOT) have an increased risk for sepsis compared with the general population. Paradoxically, studies suggest that SOT patients with sepsis may experience better outcomes compared with those without a SOT. However, these analyses used previous definitions of sepsis. It remains unknown whether the more recent definitions of sepsis and modern analytic approaches demonstrate a similar relationship. Methods: Using the Weill Cornell-Critical Care Database for Advanced Research, we analyzed granular physiologic, microbiologic, comorbidity, and therapeutic data in patients with and without SOT admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). We used a survival analysis with a targeted minimum loss-based estimation, adjusting for within-group (SOT and non-SOT) potential confounders to ascertain whether the effect of sepsis, defined by sepsis-3, on 28-day mortality was modified by SOT status. We performed additional analyses on restricted populations. Results: We analyzed 28 431 patients: 439 with SOT and sepsis, 281 with SOT without sepsis, 6793 with sepsis and without SOT, and 20 918 with neither. The most common SOT types were kidney (475) and liver (163). Despite a higher severity of illness in both sepsis groups, the adjusted sepsis-attributable effect on 28-day mortality for non-SOT patients was 4.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.8-4.5) and -14.4% (95% CI, -16.8 to -12) for SOT patients. The adjusted SOT effect modification was -18.5% (95% CI, -21.2 to -15.9). The adjusted sepsis-attributable effect for immunocompromised controls was -3.5% (95% CI, -4.5 to -2.6). Conclusions: Across a large database of patients admitted to ICUs, the sepsis-associated 28-day mortality effect was significantly lower in SOT patients compared with controls.

An Instrument for Measuring Critical Appraisal Self-Efficacy in Rheumatology Trainees.

OBJECTIVE: Self-efficacy, the internal belief that one can perform a specific task successfully, influences behavior. To promote critical appraisal of medical literature, rheumatology training programs should foster both competence and self-efficacy for critical appraisal. This study aimed to investigate whether select items from the Clinical Research Appraisal Inventory (CRAI), an instrument measuring clinical research self-efficacy, could be used to measure critical appraisal self-efficacy (CASE). METHODS: One hundred twenty-five trainees from 33 rheumatology programs were sent a questionnaire that included two sections of the CRAI. Six CRAI items relevant to CASE were identified a priori; responses generated a CASE score (total score range 0-10; higher = greater confidence in one's ability to perform a specific task successfully). CASE scores' internal structure and relation to domain-concordant variables were analyzed. RESULTS: Questionnaires were completed by 112 of 125 (89.6%) trainees. CASE scores ranged from 0.5 to 8.2. The six CRAI items contributing to the CASE score demonstrated high internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.95) and unidimensionality. Criterion validity was supported by the findings that participants with higher CASE scores rated their epidemiology and biostatistics understanding higher than that of peers (P < 0.0001) and were more likely to report referring to studies to answer clinical questions (odds ratio 2.47, 95% confidence interval 1.41-4.33; P = 0.002). The correlation of CASE scores with percentage of questions answered correctly was only moderate, supporting discriminant validity. CONCLUSION: The six-item CASE instrument demonstrated content validity, internal consistency, discriminative capability, and criterion validity, including correlation with self-reported behavior, supporting its potential as a useful measure of critical appraisal self-efficacy.

A causal roadmap for generating high-quality real-world evidence.

Increasing emphasis on the use of real-world evidence (RWE) to support clinical policy and regulatory decision-making has led to a proliferation of guidance, advice, and frameworks from regulatory agencies, academia, professional societies, and industry. A broad spectrum of studies use real-world data (RWD) to produce RWE, ranging from randomized trials with outcomes assessed using RWD to fully observational studies. Yet, many proposals for generating RWE lack sufficient detail, and many analyses of RWD suffer from implausible assumptions, other methodological flaws, or inappropriate interpretations. The Causal Roadmap is an explicit, itemized, iterative process that guides investigators to prespecify study design and analysis plans; it addresses a wide range of guidance within a single framework. By supporting the transparent evaluation of causal assumptions and facilitating objective comparisons of design and analysis choices based on prespecified criteria, the Roadmap can help investigators to evaluate the quality of evidence that a given study is likely to produce, specify a study to generate high-quality RWE, and communicate effectively with regulatory agencies and other stakeholders. This paper aims to disseminate and extend the Causal Roadmap framework for use by clinical and translational researchers; three companion papers demonstrate applications of the Causal Roadmap for specific use cases.