Predicting continuous amyloid PET values with CSF tau phosphorylation occupancies.

INTRODUCTION: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau phosphorylation at multiple sites is associated with cortical amyloid and other pathologic changes in Alzheimer's disease. These relationships can be non-linear. We used an artificial neural network to assess the ability of 10 different CSF tau phosphorylation sites to predict continuous amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) values. METHODS: CSF tau phosphorylation occupancies at 10 sites (including pT181/T181, pT217/T217, pT231/T231 and pT205/T205) were measured by mass spectrometry in 346 individuals (57 cognitively impaired, 289 cognitively unimpaired). We generated synthetic amyloid PET scans using biomarkers and evaluated their performance. RESULTS: Concentration of CSF pT217/T217 had low predictive error (average error: 13%), but also a low predictive range (ceiling 63 Centiloids). CSF pT231/T231 has slightly higher error (average error: 19%) but predicted through a greater range (87 Centiloids). DISCUSSION: Tradeoffs exist in biomarker selection. Some phosphorylation sites offer greater concordance with amyloid PET at lower levels, while others perform better over a greater range. HIGHLIGHTS: Novel pTau isoforms can predict cortical amyloid burden. pT217/T217 accurately predicts cortical amyloid burden in low-amyloid individuals. Traditional CSF biomarkers correspond with higher levels of amyloid.

Disease staging of Alzheimer's disease using a CSF-based biomarker model.

Biological staging of individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) may improve diagnostic and prognostic workup of dementia in clinical practice and the design of clinical trials. In this study, we used the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) algorithm to establish a robust biological staging model for AD using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers. Our analysis involved 426 participants from BioFINDER-2 and was validated in 222 participants from the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center cohort. SuStaIn identified a singular biomarker sequence and revealed that five CSF biomarkers effectively constituted a reliable staging model (ordered: Aß42/40, pT217/T217, pT205/T205, MTBR-tau243 and non-phosphorylated mid-region tau). The CSF stages (0-5) demonstrated a correlation with increased abnormalities in other AD-related biomarkers, such as Aß-PET and tau-PET, and aligned with longitudinal biomarker changes reflective of AD progression. Higher CSF stages at baseline were associated with an elevated hazard ratio of clinical decline. This study highlights a common molecular pathway underlying AD pathophysiology across all patients, suggesting that a single CSF collection can accurately indicate the presence of AD pathologies and characterize the stage of disease progression. The proposed staging model has implications for enhancing diagnostic and prognostic assessments in both clinical practice and the design of clinical trials.