Consequences of a Surveillance Strategy for Side-Branch Intraductal Pancreatic Mucinous Neoplasms: Long-Term Follow-Up of One-Thousand Cysts.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to quantify the rate of progression in surveilled cysts and assess what factors should indicate delayed resection. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (SB-IPMNs) are increasingly discovered, making it challenging to identify which patients require resection, thus avoiding inappropriate treatment. Most incidental lesions are surveyed, yet the consequences of that decision remain uncertain. METHODS: A prospectively maintained database of pancreatic cystic neoplasms was queried for patients with SB-IPMN. Patients with ≥2 imaging studies >6 months apart were included. Clinically relevant progression (CR-Progression) was defined by symptoms, worrisome/high-risk stigmata, or invasive cancer (IC). Growth ≥5 mm in 2 years is considered CR-Progression; size ≥3 cm alone is not. RESULTS: Between 1997-2023,1,337 patients were diagnosed with SB-IPMN. Thirty-seven (2.7%) underwent up-front surgery; 1,000 (75.0%) had >6 months surveillance.The rate of CR-progression was 15.3% (n=153) based on size increase (n=63, 6.3%), main-duct involvement (n=48, 4.8%), symptoms (n=8, 5.0%), or other criteria (n=34, 3.4%). At a median follow-up of 6.6 years (IQR 3.0-10.26), 17 patients (1.7%) developed IC. Those with CR-progression developed IC in 11.1% (n=17) and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in 6.5% (n=10). Nearly half of the cancers were not contiguous with the surveyed SB-IPMN.Size ≥3 cm was not associated with HGD/IC (P=0.232). HGD/IC was least common in CR-progression determined by size growth (6.3%) versus main-duct involvement (24%) or other (43%, P<0.001)Patients with CR-progression demonstrated improved survival (OS) with resection on time-to-event (P<0.001) and multivariate cox-regression (HR=0.205, 0.096-0.439, P<0.001) analyses. OS was not improved with resection in all patients (P=0.244). CONCLUSION: Clinically relevant progression for SB-IPMNs is uncommon with development of cancer anywhere in the pancreas being rare. Initial size should not drive resection. Long-term and consistent non-operative surveillance is warranted, with surgery currently reserved for CR-progression knowing that the majority of these still harbor low grade pathology.

Predicting Mortality Prior to Interhospital Hospital for "Unseen" General Surgery Patients: Development, Validation and Feasibility Trial of a Mortality Risk Calculator.

OBJECTIVE: Develop and validate a mortality risk calculator that could be utilized at the time of transfer, leveraging routinely collected variables that could be obtained by trained non-clinical transfer personnel. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: There are no objective tools to predict mortality at the time of inter-hospital transfer for Emergency General Surgery (EGS) patients that are "unseen" by the accepting system. METHODS: Patients transferred to general or colorectal surgery services from January 2016 through August 2022 were retrospectively identified and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (3:1 ratio). The primary outcome was admission-related mortality, defined as death during the index admission or within 30 days post-discharge. Multiple predictive models were developed and validated. RESULTS: Among 4,664 transferred patients, 280 (6.0%) experienced mortality. Predictive models were generated utilizing 19 routinely collected variables; the penalized regression model was selected over other models due to excellent performance using only 12 variables. The model performance on the validating set resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy of 0.851, 0.90, 0.67, and 0.79, respectively. After bias correction, Brier score was 0.04, indicating a strong association between the assigned risk and the observed frequency of mortality. CONCLUSION: A risk calculator using twelve variables has excellent predictive ability for mortality at the time of interhospital transfer among "unseen" EGS patients. Quantifying a patient's mortality risk at the time of transfer could improve patient triage, bed and resource allocation, and standardize care.

Tumor Size Combined With CA-19 Level Improves Prediction of Survival of Patients With Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Undergoing Perioperative Chemotherapy and Resection.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Five-year survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma is less than 20%. While previous studies have postulated that a carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) threshold could predict outcome of resection, the role for CA19-9 in decision-making remains unclear. This study aims to assess whether CA19-9 levels combined with tumor size improve prediction of post-resection survival. METHOD: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 109 patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma who underwent perioperative chemotherapy followed by resection. The primary outcome of mortality was, divided into short (<1 year) or prolonged (>2 years). Univariate and multivariable analyses compared the tumor size-adjusted CA19-9 between the outcome groups. RESULTS: Twenty-seven (24.78%) and eighty-two (75.23%) patients were in the short survival and prolonged-survival groups, respectively. The mean CA19-9 was significantly greater in the short vs prolonged group (P < .001). Analyzing CA19-9 level by tumor size, the association of high CA19-9 and short survival was significant for small (≤2 cm) and large tumor (>4 cm), but not for intermediate-size tumors (2-4 cm). Adjusting for preoperative variable did not change this association. CONCLUSION: CA 19-9 in combination with tumor size better identifies patients with prolonged post-resection survival. This prediction is most accurate in patients with either small (≤2 cms) or large (>4 cms) tumors compared to intermediate-size tumors.