Global economic costs due to vivax malaria and the potential impact of its radical cure: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, an estimated 14 million cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria were reported from Asia, Central and South America, and the Horn of Africa. The clinical burden of vivax malaria is largely driven by its ability to form dormant liver stages (hypnozoites) that can reactivate to cause recurrent episodes of malaria. Elimination of both the blood and liver stages of the parasites ("radical cure") is required to achieve a sustained clinical response and prevent ongoing transmission of the parasite. Novel treatment options and point-of-care diagnostics are now available to ensure that radical cure can be administered safely and effectively. We quantified the global economic cost of vivax malaria and estimated the potential cost benefit of a policy of radical cure after testing patients for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Estimates of the healthcare provider and household costs due to vivax malaria were collated and combined with national case estimates for 44 endemic countries in 2017. These provider and household costs were compared with those that would be incurred under 2 scenarios for radical cure following G6PD screening: (1) complete adherence following daily supervised primaquine therapy and (2) unsupervised treatment with an assumed 40% effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis generated credible intervals (CrIs) for the estimates. Globally, the annual cost of vivax malaria was US$359 million (95% CrI: US$222 to 563 million), attributable to 14.2 million cases of vivax malaria in 2017. From a societal perspective, adopting a policy of G6PD deficiency screening and supervision of primaquine to all eligible patients would prevent 6.1 million cases and reduce the global cost of vivax malaria to US$266 million (95% CrI: US$161 to 415 million), although healthcare provider costs would increase by US$39 million. If perfect adherence could be achieved with a single visit, then the global cost would fall further to US$225 million, equivalent to $135 million in cost savings from the baseline global costs. A policy of unsupervised primaquine reduced the cost to US$342 million (95% CrI: US$209 to 532 million) while preventing 2.1 million cases. Limitations of the study include partial availability of country-level cost data and parameter uncertainty for the proportion of patients prescribed primaquine, patient adherence to a full course of primaquine, and effectiveness of primaquine when unsupervised. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling study highlights a substantial global economic burden of vivax malaria that could be reduced through investment in safe and effective radical cure achieved by routine screening for G6PD deficiency and supervision of treatment. Novel, low-cost interventions for improving adherence to primaquine to ensure effective radical cure and widespread access to screening for G6PD deficiency will be critical to achieving the timely global elimination of P. vivax.

Implementing radical cure diagnostics for malaria: user perspectives on G6PD testing in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: The radical cure of Plasmodium vivax requires treatment with an 8-aminoquinoline drug, such as primaquine and tafenoquine, to eradicate liver hypnozoite stages, which can reactivate to cause relapsing infections. Safe treatment regimens require prior screening of patients for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency to avoid potential life-threatening drug induced haemolysis. Testing is rarely available in malaria endemic countries, but will be needed to support routine use of radical cure. This study investigates end-user perspectives in Bangladesh on the introduction of a quantitative G6PD test (SD Biosensor STANDARD™ G6PD analyser) to support malaria elimination. METHODS: The perspectives of users on the SD Biosensor test were analysed using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with health care providers and malaria programme officers in Bangladesh. Key emerging themes regarding the feasibility of introducing this test into routine practice, including perceived barriers, were analysed. RESULTS: In total 63 participants were interviewed. Participants emphasized the life-saving potential of the biosensor, but raised concerns including the impact of limited staff time, high workload and some technical aspects of the device. Participants highlighted that there are both too few and too many P. vivax patients to implement G6PD testing owing to challenges of funding, workload and complex testing infrastructure. Implementing the biosensor would require flexibility and improvisation to deal with remote sites, overcoming a low index of suspicion and mutual interplay of declining patient numbers and reluctance to test. This approach would generate new forms of evidence to justify introduction in policy and carefully consider questions of deployment given declining patient numbers. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study show that, in an elimination context, the importance of malaria needs to be maintained for both policy makers and the affected communities, in this case by ensuring P. vivax, PQ treatment, and G6PD deficiency remain visible. Availability of new technologies, such as the biosensor, will fuel ongoing debates about priorities for allocating resources that must be adapted to a constantly evolving target. Technical and logistical concerns regarding the biosensor should be addressed by future product designs, adequate training, strengthened supply chains, and careful planning of communication, advocacy and staff interactions at all health system levels.

Correction: Quantification of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity by spectrophotometry: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003084.].

Quantification of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity by spectrophotometry: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The radical cure of Plasmodium vivax and P. ovale requires treatment with primaquine or tafenoquine to clear dormant liver stages. Either drug can induce haemolysis in individuals with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, necessitating screening. The reference diagnostic method for G6PD activity is ultraviolet (UV) spectrophotometry; however, a universal G6PD activity threshold above which these drugs can be safely administered is not yet defined. Our study aimed to quantify assay-based variation in G6PD spectrophotometry and to explore the diagnostic implications of applying a universal threshold. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Individual-level data were pooled from studies that used G6PD spectrophotometry. Studies were identified via PubMed search (25 April 2018) and unpublished contributions from contacted authors (PROSPERO: CRD42019121414). Studies were excluded if they assessed only individuals with known haematological conditions, were family studies, or had insufficient details. Studies of malaria patients were included but analysed separately. Included studies were assessed for risk of bias using an adapted form of the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Repeatability and intra- and interlaboratory variability in G6PD activity measurements were compared between studies and pooled across the dataset. A universal threshold for G6PD deficiency was derived, and its diagnostic performance was compared to site-specific thresholds. Study participants (n = 15,811) were aged between 0 and 86 years, and 44.4% (7,083) were women. Median (range) activity of G6PD normal (G6PDn) control samples was 10.0 U/g Hb (6.3-14.0) for the Trinity assay and 8.3 U/g Hb (6.8-15.6) for the Randox assay. G6PD activity distributions varied significantly between studies. For the 13 studies that used the Trinity assay, the adjusted male median (AMM; a standardised metric of 100% G6PD activity) varied from 5.7 to 12.6 U/g Hb (p < 0.001). Assay precision varied between laboratories, as assessed by variance in control measurements (from 0.1 to 1.5 U/g Hb; p < 0.001) and study-wise mean coefficient of variation (CV) of replicate measures (from 1.6% to 14.9%; p < 0.001). A universal threshold of 100% G6PD activity was defined as 9.4 U/g Hb, yielding diagnostic thresholds of 6.6 U/g Hb (70% activity) and 2.8 U/g Hb (30% activity). These thresholds diagnosed individuals with less than 30% G6PD activity with study-wise sensitivity from 89% (95% CI: 81%-94%) to 100% (95% CI: 96%-100%) and specificity from 96% (95% CI: 89%-99%) to 100% (100%-100%). However, when considering intermediate deficiency (<70% G6PD activity), sensitivity fell to a minimum of 64% (95% CI: 52%-75%) and specificity to 35% (95% CI: 24%-46%). Our ability to identify underlying factors associated with study-level heterogeneity was limited by the lack of availability of covariate data and diverse study contexts and methodologies. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that there is substantial variation in G6PD measurements by spectrophotometry between sites. This is likely due to variability in laboratory methods, with possible contribution of unmeasured population factors. While an assay-specific, universal quantitative threshold offers robust diagnosis at the 30% level, inter-study variability impedes performance of universal thresholds at the 70% level. Caution is advised in comparing findings based on absolute G6PD activity measurements across studies. Novel handheld quantitative G6PD diagnostics may allow greater standardisation in the future.

Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes-particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies-require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017. METHODS: In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps. FINDINGS: We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5-27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7-15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6-67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3-50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0-55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability. INTERPRETATION: Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.

Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden. METHODS: We updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage. For malaria endemic countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, we produced estimates of parasite rate and incidence by applying an ecological downscaling approach to malaria incidence data acquired via routine surveillance. Mortality estimates were derived by linking incidence to systematically derived vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Informed by high-resolution covariate surfaces, we estimated P falciparum parasite rate, clinical incidence, and mortality at national, subnational, and 5 × 5 km pixel scales with corresponding uncertainty metrics. FINDINGS: We present the first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010. These results are combined with those for Plasmodium vivax (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The P falciparum estimates span the period 2000-17, and illustrate the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017, with incidence declining by 27·9% and mortality declining by 42·5%. Despite a growing population in endemic regions, P falciparum cases declined between 2005 and 2017, from 232·3 million (95% uncertainty interval 198·8-277·7) to 193·9 million (156·6-240·2) and deaths declined from 925 800 (596 900-1 341 100) to 618 700 (368 600-952 200). Despite the declines in burden, 90·1% of people within sub-Saharan Africa continue to reside in endemic areas, and this region accounted for 79·4% of cases and 87·6% of deaths in 2017. INTERPRETATION: High-resolution maps of P falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Amid progress in reducing global malaria burden, areas where incidence trends have plateaued or increased in the past 5 years underscore the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. Efforts towards elimination should be strengthened in such areas, and those where burden remained high throughout the study period. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping malaria seasonality in Madagascar using health facility data.

BACKGROUND: Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. Identifying location-specific seasonality characteristics is useful for planning interventions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed thresholds of rainfall, temperature, and/or vegetation indices to identify suitable transmission months, we construct a statistical modelling framework for characterising the seasonal patterns derived directly from monthly health facility data. METHODS: With data from 2669 of the 3247 health facilities in Madagascar, a spatiotemporal regression model was used to estimate seasonal patterns across the island. In the absence of catchment population estimates or the ability to aggregate to the district level, this focused on the monthly proportions of total annual cases by health facility level. The model was informed by dynamic environmental covariates known to directly influence seasonal malaria trends. To identify operationally relevant characteristics such as the transmission start months and associated uncertainty measures, an algorithm was developed and applied to model realisations. A seasonality index was used to incorporate burden information from household prevalence surveys and summarise 'how seasonal' locations are relative to their surroundings. RESULTS: Positive associations were detected between monthly case proportions and temporally lagged covariates of rainfall and temperature suitability. Consistent with the existing literature, model estimates indicate that while most parts of Madagascar experience peaks in malaria transmission near March-April, the eastern coast experiences an earlier peak around February. Transmission was estimated to start in southeast districts before southwest districts, suggesting that indoor residual spraying should be completed in the same order. In regions where the data suggested conflicting seasonal signals or two transmission seasons, estimates of seasonal features had larger deviations and therefore less certainty. CONCLUSIONS: Monthly health facility data can be used to establish seasonal patterns in malaria burden and augment the information provided by household prevalence surveys. The proposed modelling framework allows for evidence-based and cohesive inferences on location-specific seasonal characteristics. As health surveillance systems continue to improve, it is hoped that more of such data will be available to improve our understanding and planning of intervention strategies.

A stakeholder workshop about modelled maps of key malaria indicator survey indicators in Madagascar.

The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program has supported three household Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) in Madagascar. The results of 13 key malaria indicators from these surveys have been mapped as continuous surfaces using model-based geostatistical methods. The opportunities and limitations of these mapped outputs were discussed during a workshop in Antananarivo, Madagascar in July 2018, attended by 15 representatives from various implementation, policy and research stakeholder institutions in Madagascar. Participants evaluated the findings from the maps, using these to develop figures and narratives to support their work in the control of malaria in Madagascar.

Spatio-temporal mapping of Madagascar's Malaria Indicator Survey results to assess Plasmodium falciparum endemicity trends between 2011 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: Reliable measures of disease burden over time are necessary to evaluate the impact of interventions and assess sub-national trends in the distribution of infection. Three Malaria Indicator Surveys (MISs) have been conducted in Madagascar since 2011. They provide a valuable resource to assess changes in burden that is complementary to the country's routine case reporting system. METHODS: A Bayesian geostatistical spatio-temporal model was developed in an integrated nested Laplace approximation framework to map the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection among children from 6 to 59 months in age across Madagascar for 2011, 2013 and 2016 based on the MIS datasets. The model was informed by a suite of environmental and socio-demographic covariates known to influence infection prevalence. Spatio-temporal trends were quantified across the country. RESULTS: Despite a relatively small decrease between 2013 and 2016, the prevalence of malaria infection has increased substantially in all areas of Madagascar since 2011. In 2011, almost half (42.3%) of the country's population lived in areas of very low malaria risk (<1% parasite prevalence), but by 2016, this had dropped to only 26.7% of the population. Meanwhile, the population in high transmission areas (prevalence >20%) increased from only 2.2% in 2011 to 9.2% in 2016. A comparison of the model-based estimates with the raw MIS results indicates there was an underestimation of the situation in 2016, since the raw figures likely associated with survey timings were delayed until after the peak transmission season. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria remains an important health problem in Madagascar. The monthly and annual prevalence maps developed here provide a way to evaluate the magnitude of change over time, taking into account variability in survey input data. These methods can contribute to monitoring sub-national trends of malaria prevalence in Madagascar as the country aims for geographically progressive elimination.

Primaquine ineligibility in anti-relapse therapy of Plasmodium vivax malaria: the problem of G6PD deficiency and cytochrome P-450 2D6 polymorphisms.

The hypnozoite reservoir of Plasmodium vivax represents both the greatest obstacle and opportunity for ultimately eradicating this species. It is silent and cannot be diagnosed until it awakens and provokes a clinical attack with attendant morbidity, risk of mortality, and opportunities for onward transmission. The only licensed drug that kills hypnozoites is primaquine, which attacks the hypnozoite reservoir but imposes serious obstacles in doing so-at hypnozoitocidal doses, it invariably causes a threatening acute haemolytic anaemia in patients having an inborn deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD), affecting about 8% of people living in malaria endemic nations. That problem excludes a large number of people from safe and effective treatment of the latent stage of vivax malaria: the G6PD deficient, pregnant or lactating women, and young infants. These groups were estimated to comprise 14.3% of populations resident in the 95 countries with endemic vivax malaria. Another important obstacle regarding primaquine in the business of killing hypnozoites is its apparent metabolism to an active metabolite exclusively via cytochrome P-450 isozyme 2D6 (CYP2D6). Natural polymorphisms of this allele create genotypes expressing impaired enzymes that occur in over 20% of people living in Southeast Asia, where more than half of P. vivax infections occur globally. Taken together, the estimated frequencies of these primaquine ineligibles due to G6PD toxicity or impaired CYP2D6 activity composed over 35% of the populations at risk of vivax malaria. Much more detailed work is needed to refine these estimates, derive probabilities of error for them, and improve their ethnographic granularity in order to inform control and elimination strategy and tactics.

malariaAtlas: an R interface to global malariometric data hosted by the Malaria Atlas Project.

BACKGROUND: The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) has worked to assemble and maintain a global open-access database of spatial malariometric data for over a decade. This data spans various formats and topics, including: geo-located surveys of malaria parasite rate; global administrative boundary shapefiles; and global and regional rasters representing the distribution of malaria and associated illnesses, blood disorders, and intervention coverage. MAP has recently released malariaAtlas, an R package providing a direct interface to MAP's routinely-updated malariometric databases and research outputs. METHODS AND RESULTS: The current paper reviews the functionality available in malariaAtlas and highlights its utility for spatial epidemiological analysis of malaria. malariaAtlas enables users to freely download, visualise and analyse global malariometric data within R. Currently available data types include: malaria parasite rate and vector occurrence point data; subnational administrative boundary shapefiles; and a large suite of rasters covering a diverse range of metrics related to malaria research. malariaAtlas is here used in two mock analyses to illustrate how this data may be incorporated into a standard R workflow for spatial analysis. CONCLUSIONS: malariaAtlas is the first open-access R-interface to malariometric data, providing a new and reproducible means of accessing such data within a freely available and commonly used statistical software environment. In this way, the malariaAtlas package aims to contribute to the environment of data-sharing within the malaria research community.

Quantifying primaquine effectiveness and improving adherence: a round table discussion of the APMEN Vivax Working Group.

The goal to eliminate malaria from the Asia-Pacific by 2030 will require the safe and widespread delivery of effective radical cure of malaria. In October 2017, the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network Vivax Working Group met to discuss the impediments to primaquine (PQ) radical cure, how these can be overcome and the methodological difficulties in assessing clinical effectiveness of radical cure. The salient discussions of this meeting which involved 110 representatives from 18 partner countries and 21 institutional partner organizations are reported. Context specific strategies to improve adherence are needed to increase understanding and awareness of PQ within affected communities; these must include education and health promotion programs. Lessons learned from other disease programs highlight that a package of approaches has the greatest potential to change patient and prescriber habits, however optimizing the components of this approach and quantifying their effectiveness is challenging. In a trial setting, the reactivity of participants results in patients altering their behaviour and creates inherent bias. Although bias can be reduced by integrating data collection into the routine health care and surveillance systems, this comes at a cost of decreasing the detection of clinical outcomes. Measuring adherence and the factors that relate to it, also requires an in-depth understanding of the context and the underlying sociocultural logic that supports it. Reaching the elimination goal will require innovative approaches to improve radical cure for vivax malaria, as well as the methods to evaluate its effectiveness.

Prevalence and genetic variants of G6PD deficiency among two Malagasy populations living in Plasmodium vivax-endemic areas.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and variants of G6PD deficiency in the Plasmodium vivax-endemic zones of Madagascar remain unknown. The admixed African-Austronesian origins of the Malagasy population make it probable that a heterogeneous mix of genetic variants with a spectrum of clinical severity will be circulating. This would have implications for the widespread use of P. vivax radical cure therapy. Two study populations in the P. vivax-endemic western foothills region of Madagascar were selected for G6PD screening. Both the qualitative fluorescent spot test and G6PD genotyping were used to screen all participants. RESULTS: A total of 365 unrelated male volunteers from the Tsiroanomandidy, Mandoto, and Miandrivazo districts of Madagascar were screened and 12.9% were found to be phenotypically G6PD deficient. Full gene sequencing of 95 samples identified 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms, which were integrated into a genotyping assay. Genotyping (n = 291) found one individual diagnosed with the severe G6PD Mediterranean C563T mutation, while the remaining G6PD deficient samples had mutations of African origin, G6PD A- and G6PD A. CONCLUSIONS: Deployment of P. vivax radical cure in Madagascar must be considerate of the risks presented by the observed prevalence of G6PDd prevalence. The potential morbidity associated with cumulative episodes of P. vivax clinical relapses requires a strategy for increasing access to safe radical cure. The observed dominance of African G6PDd haplotypes is surprising given the known mixed African-Austronesian origins of the Malagasy population; more widespread surveying of G6PDd epidemiology across the island would be required to characterize the distribution of G6PD haplotypes across Madagascar.

Long-term in vitro culture of Plasmodium vivax isolates from Madagascar maintained in Saimiri boliviensis blood.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax is the most prevalent human malaria parasite and is likely to increase proportionally as malaria control efforts more rapidly impact the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum. Despite the prominence of P. vivax as a major human pathogen, vivax malaria qualifies as a neglected and under-studied tropical disease. Significant challenges bringing P. vivax into the laboratory, particularly the capacity for long-term propagation of well-characterized strains, have limited the study of this parasite's red blood cell (RBC) invasion mechanism, blood-stage development, gene expression, and genetic manipulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patient isolates of P. vivax have been collected and cryopreserved in the rural community of Ampasimpotsy, located in the Tsiroanomandidy Health District of Madagascar. Periodic, monthly overland transport of these cryopreserved isolates to the country's National Malaria Control Programme laboratory in Antananarivo preceded onward sample transfer to laboratories at Case Western Reserve University, USA. There, the P. vivax isolates have been cultured through propagation in the RBCs of Saimiri boliviensis. For the four patient isolates studied to-date, the median time interval between sample collection and in vitro culture has been 454 days (range 166-961 days). The median time in culture, continually documented by light microscopy, has been 159 days; isolate AMP2014.01 was continuously propagated for 233 days. Further studies show that the P. vivax parasites propagated in Saimiri RBCs retain their ability to invade human RBCs, and can be cryopreserved, thawed and successfully returned to productive in vitro culture. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Long-term culture of P. vivax is possible in the RBCs of Saimiri boliviensis. These studies provide an alternative to propagation of P. vivax in live animals that are becoming more restricted. In vitro culture of P. vivax in Saimiri RBCs provides an opening to stabilize patient isolates, which would serve as precious resources to apply new strategies for investigating the molecular and cellular biology of this important malaria parasite.

Contemporary epidemiological overview of malaria in Madagascar: operational utility of reported routine case data for malaria control planning.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a major public health problem in Madagascar. Widespread scale-up of intervention coverage has led to substantial reductions in case numbers since 2000. However, political instability since 2009 has disrupted these efforts, and a resurgence of malaria has since followed. This paper re-visits the sub-national stratification of malaria transmission across Madagascar to propose a contemporary update, and evaluates the reported routine case data reported at this sub-national scale. METHODS: Two independent malariometrics were evaluated to re-examine the status of malaria across Madagascar. First, modelled maps of Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence (PfPR) from the Malaria Atlas Project were used to update the sub-national stratification into 'ecozones' based on transmission intensity. Second, routine reports of case data from health facilities were synthesized from 2010 to 2015 to compare the sub-national epidemiology across the updated ecozones over time. Proxy indicators of data completeness are investigated. RESULTS: The epidemiology of malaria is highly diverse across the island's ecological regions, with eight contiguous ecozones emerging from the transmission intensity PfPR map. East and west coastal areas have highest transmission year-round, contrasting with the central highlands and desert south where trends appear more closely associated with epidemic outbreak events. Ecozones have shown steady increases in reported malaria cases since 2010, with a near doubling of raw reported case numbers from 2014 to 2015. Gauges of data completeness suggest that interpretation of raw reported case numbers will underestimate true caseload as only approximately 60-75 % of health facility data are reported to the central level each month. DISCUSSION: A sub-national perspective is essential when monitoring the epidemiology of malaria in Madagascar and assessing local control needs. A robust assessment of the status of malaria at a time when intervention coverage efforts are being scaled up provides a platform from which to guide intervention preparedness and assess change in future periods of transmission.

Treatment-seeking rates in malaria endemic countries.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of individuals who seek treatment for fever is an important quantity in understanding access to and use of health systems, as well as for interpreting data on disease incidence from routine surveillance systems. For many malaria endemic countries (MECs), treatment-seeking information is available from national household surveys. The aim of this paper was to assemble sub-national estimates of treatment-seeking behaviours and to predict national treatment-seeking measures for all MECs lacking household survey data. METHODS: Data on treatment seeking for fever were obtained from Demographic and Health Surveys, Malaria Indicator Surveys and Multiple Cluster Indicator Surveys for every MEC and year that data were available. National-level social, economic and health-related variables were gathered from the World Bank as putative covariates of treatment-seeking rates. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was used to estimate treatment-seeking behaviours for countries where survey data were unavailable. Two separate models were developed to predict the proportion of fever cases that would seek treatment at (1) a public health facility or (2) from any kind of treatment provider. RESULTS: Treatment-seeking data were available for 74 MECs and modelled for the remaining 24. GAMMs found that the percentage of pregnant women receiving prenatal care, vaccination rates, education level, government health expenditure, and GDP growth were important predictors for both categories of treatment-seeking outcomes. Treatment-seeking rates, which varied both within and among regions, revealed that public facilities were not always the primary facility type used. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of treatment-seeking rates show how health services are utilized and help correct reported malaria case numbers to obtain more accurate measures of disease burden. The assembled and modelled data demonstrated that while treatment-seeking rates have overall increased over time, access remains low in some malaria endemic regions and utilization of government services is in some areas limited.

Malaria diagnosis for malaria elimination.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Limitations of blood smear microscopy contributed to failure of the 1950-1960s WHO Global Programme to Eliminate Malaria. All diagnostic methods encounter limits of detection (LOD) beyond which it will not be possible to identify infected individuals. When this occurs, it becomes difficult to continue evaluating progress of malaria elimination. The purpose of this review is to compare available diagnostic technologies, factors that underlie their LOD, and their potential roles related to the goal of elimination. RECENT FINDINGS: Parasite-containing cells, parasite proteins, hemozoin, nucleic acids, and parasite-specific human antibodies are targets of diagnosis. Many studies report advantages of technologies to detect these diagnostic targets. Nucleic acid amplification tests and strategies for enriching capture of malaria diagnostic targets have consistently identified a parasite reservoir not detected by methods focused on the other biological targets. Exploiting magnetic properties of hemozoin may open new strategies for noninvasive malaria diagnosis. SUMMARY: Microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests provide effective surveillance for malaria control. Strategies that detect a reservoir of submicroscopic infection must be developed and standardized to guide malaria elimination.

Defining the relationship between Plasmodium vivax parasite rate and clinical disease.

BACKGROUND: Though essential to the development and evaluation of national malaria control programmes, precise enumeration of the clinical illness burden of malaria in endemic countries remains challenging where local surveillance systems are incomplete. Strategies to infer annual incidence rates from parasite prevalence survey compilations have proven effective in the specific case of Plasmodium falciparum, but have yet to be developed for Plasmodium vivax. Moreover, defining the relationship between P. vivax prevalence and clinical incidence may also allow levels of endemicity to be inferred for areas where the information balance is reversed, that is, incident case numbers are more widely gathered than parasite surveys; both applications ultimately facilitating cartographic estimates of P. vivax transmission intensity and its ensuring disease burden. METHODS: A search for active case detection surveys was conducted and the recorded incidence values were matched to local, contemporary parasite rate measures and classified to geographic zones of differing relapse phenotypes. A hierarchical Bayesian model was fitted to these data to quantify the relationship between prevalence and incidence while accounting for variation among relapse zones. RESULTS: The model, fitted with 176 concurrently measured P. vivax incidence and prevalence records, was a linear regression of the logarithm of incidence against the logarithm of age-standardized prevalence. Specific relationships for the six relapse zones where data were available were drawn, as well as a pooled overall relationship. The slope of the curves varied among relapse zones; zones with short predicted time to relapse had steeper slopes than those observed to contain long-latency relapse phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: The fitted relationships, along with appropriate uncertainty metrics, allow for estimates of clinical incidence of known confidence to be made from wherever P. vivax prevalence data are available. This is a prerequisite for cartographic-based inferences about the global burden of morbidity due to P. vivax, which will be used to inform control efforts.

Global epidemiology of sickle haemoglobin in neonates: a contemporary geostatistical model-based map and population estimates.

BACKGROUND: Reliable estimates of populations affected by diseases are necessary to guide efficient allocation of public health resources. Sickle haemoglobin (HbS) is the most common and clinically significant haemoglobin structural variant, but no contemporary estimates exist of the global populations affected. Moreover, the precision of available national estimates of heterozygous (AS) and homozygous (SS) neonates is unknown. We aimed to provide evidence-based estimates at various scales, with uncertainty measures. METHODS: Using a database of sickle haemoglobin surveys, we created a contemporary global map of HbS allele frequency distribution within a Bayesian geostatistical model. The pairing of this map with demographic data enabled calculation of global, regional, and national estimates of the annual number of AS and SS neonates. Subnational estimates were also calculated in data-rich areas. FINDINGS: Our map shows subnational spatial heterogeneities and high allele frequencies across most of sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and India, as well as gene flow following migrations to western Europe and the eastern coast of the Americas. Accounting for local heterogeneities and demographic factors, we estimated that the global number of neonates affected by HbS in 2010 included 5,476,000 (IQR 5,291,000-5,679,000) AS neonates and 312,000 (294,000-330,000) SS neonates. These global estimates are higher than previous conservative estimates. Important differences predicted at the national level are discussed. INTERPRETATION: HbS will have an increasing effect on public health systems. Our estimates can help countries and the international community gauge the need for appropriate diagnoses and genetic counselling to reduce the number of neonates affected. Similar mapping and modelling methods could be used for other inherited disorders. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust.