What is required for achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Singapore? A modeling study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The vast majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Singapore is among those with a history of injecting drug use (IDU), yet harm reduction is not available and what is required to achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) HCV elimination targets (80% incidence reduction and 65% mortality reduction by 2030) is unknown. We model the intervention scale-up required to achieve WHO targets in Singapore. METHODS: A dynamic model of HCV transmission and progression among those with a history of IDU was calibrated to Singapore, a setting with declining IDU and no harm reduction (~11 000 people with IDU history in 2017 and 45% HCV seropositive). We projected HCV treatment scale-up from 2019 required to achieve WHO targets with varying prioritization scenarios, with/without opiate substitution therapy scale-up (to 40% among people who inject drugs [PWID]). RESULTS: We estimated 3855 (95% confidence interval: 2635-5446) chronically HCV-infected individuals with a history of IDU and 148 (87-284) incident HCV cases in Singapore in 2019. Reaching the HCV incidence target requires 272 (187-384) treatments in 2019, totaling 2444 (1683-3452) across 2019-2030. By prioritizing PWID or PWID and cirrhotics, 60% or 30% fewer treatments are required, respectively, whereas the target cannot be achieved with cirrhosis prioritization. Opiate substitution therapy scale-up reduces treatments required by 21-24%. Achieving both WHO targets requires treating 631 (359-1047) in 2019, totaling 3816 (2664-5423) across 2019-2030. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis C virus elimination is achievable in Singapore but even with declining IDU requires immediate treatment scale-up among PWID. Harm reduction provision reduces treatments required and provides additional benefits.

Alcohol-Related Liver Disease Is Rarely Detected at Early Stages Compared With Liver Diseases of Other Etiologies Worldwide.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite recent advances in treatment of viral hepatitis, liver-related mortality is high, possibly owing to the large burden of advanced alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). We investigated whether patients with ALD are initially seen at later stages of disease development than patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection or other etiologies. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of 3453 consecutive patients with either early or advanced liver disease (1699 patients with early and 1754 with advanced liver disease) seen at 17 tertiary care liver or gastrointestinal units worldwide, from August 2015 through March 2017. We collected anthropometric, etiology, and clinical information, as well as and model for end-stage liver disease scores. We used unconditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios for evaluation at late stages of the disease progression. RESULTS: Of the patients analyzed, 81% had 1 etiology of liver disease and 17% had 2 etiologies of liver disease. Of patients seen at early stages for a single etiology, 31% had HCV infection, 21% had hepatitis B virus infection, and 17% had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, whereas only 3.8% had ALD. In contrast, 29% of patients seen for advanced disease had ALD. Patients with ALD were more likely to be seen at specialized centers, with advanced-stage disease, compared with patients with HCV-associated liver disease (odds ratio, 14.1; 95% CI, 10.5-18.9; P < .001). Of patients with 2 etiologies of liver disease, excess alcohol use was associated with 50% of cases. These patients had significantly more visits to health care providers, with more advanced disease, compared with patients without excess alcohol use. The mean model for end-stage liver disease score for patients with advanced ALD (score, 16) was higher than for patients with advanced liver disease not associated with excess alcohol use (score, 13) (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: In a cross-sectional analysis of patients with liver disease worldwide, we found that patients with ALD are seen with more advanced-stage disease than patients with HCV-associated liver disease. Of patients with 2 etiologies of liver disease, excess alcohol use was associated with 50% of cases. Early detection and referral programs are needed for patients with ALD worldwide.

Novel non-invasive score to predict cirrhosis in the era of hepatitis C elimination: A population study of ex-substance users in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis C infection is common among people with history of substance use. Liver fibrosis assessment is a barrier to linkage to care, particularly among those with history of substance users. The use of non-invasive scores can be helpful in predicting liver cirrhosis in the era of HCV elimination, especially in countries where transient elastography (TE) is not available. We compared the commonly used non-invasive scores with a novel non-invasive score in predicting liver cirrhosis in this population. METHODS: HCV patients with history of substance use between 2011 and 2016 were analyzed. All patients had TE for liver fibrosis assessment. Clinical performance of established non-invasive scores for fibrosis assessment and novel score were compared. Youden's index was used to determine optimal cut-off of the novel score. RESULTS: A total of 579 patients were included. In multivariate logistic regression, cirrhosis on TE was associated with age (P = 0.002), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (P = 0.004), and platelet count (P < 0.001), but not alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (P = 0.896). These form the components of modified AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) score. Modified APRI was superior to APRI in predicting cirrhosis (AUROC, 0.796 vs. 0.770, P = 0.007), but not fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) (P = 1.00). Modified APRI at cut-off of 4 has sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94.4%, 26.9% and 92.6%, respectively, and at 19, has sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) of 33.3%, 96.2% and 77.1%, respectively. FIB-4 has a NPV and PPV of 88.6%, 41.8% and 78.5%, 77.6%, at cut-off of 1.45 and 3.25, respectively. Using the cut-off of 4 and 14 for modified APRI, 32.5% of patients can be correctly classified and misses out only 5.6% of cirrhosis patients. CONCLUSIONS: Modified APRI score is superior in predicting cirrhosis in HCV population, with 32.5% of the population being correctly classified using cut-off of 4 and 14. Further studies are required to validate the findings.

Statin and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and death in a hospital-based hepatitis B-infected population: A propensity score landmark analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The use of statin in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death prevention is still uncertain among hepatitis B infected (HBV) patients. This study aimed to examine the effect of statin on HCC and death in a HBV population. METHODS: We conducted a hospital-based population study of HBV patients, using the Hospital Authority database in Hong Kong. We defined statin use by landmark analysis to abrogate "immortal time bias" and propensity score (PS) weighting to minimize baseline confounders and "indication bias". Multiple imputations for missing data were performed. The weighted Cox regression analyses was performed for the risk of HCC (adjusting for competing mortality) and death. RESULTS: A total of 73,499 patients with a crude HCC incidence of 1.75 per 100 patient-years were entered into the 2-year landmark analysis. After landmark analysis and PS weighting of baseline covariates, statin users had a 32% risk reduction in HCC (weighted sub-hazard ratio (SHR) 0.68; 95% CI 0.48-0.97) compared to non-users. There was no decreased risk of death in statin users (weighted HR 0.92; 0.76-1.11, p=0.386). In subgroup analysis, concurrent statin and nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) use was associated with 59% risk reduction in HCC (weighted SHR 0.41; 0.19-0.89, p=0.023) compared to NA use alone. CONCLUSION: In this HBV cohort adjusted for confounders and biases, statin use is associated with reduced HCC risk by 32%. Additive HCC chemopreventive effect was seen with the concomitant use of NA and statin. Further prospective studies are warranted to investigate the potential use of statin in NA users.

Point-of-care hepatitis C screening with direct access referral to improve linkage to care among halfway house residents: a pilot randomised study.

INTRODUCTION: Linkage to care among individuals with substance misuse remains a barrier to the elimination of the hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aimed to determine whether point-of-care (PoC) education, screening and staging for liver disease with direct access to hospitals would improve linkage to care among this group. METHODS: All participants were offered PoC education and HCV screening. HCV-positive participants were randomised to standard care (controls) or direct access, which provided a direct pathway to hospitals. Linkage to care was determined by reviewing electronic medical records. Linkage of care cascade was defined as attendance at the specialist clinic, confirmation of viraemia by HCV RNA testing, discussion about HCV treatment and initiation of treatment. RESULTS: 351 halfway house residents were screened. The overall HCV prevalence was 30.5% (n = 107), with 69 residents in the control group and 38 in the direct access group. The direct access group had a significantly higher percentage of cases linked to specialist review for confirmatory RNA testing (63.2% vs. 40.6%, p = 0.025), HCV treatment discussion (p = 0.009) and treatment initiation (p = 0.01) compared to the controls. Overall, only 12.6% (n = 13) had treatment initiation during follow-up. PoC HCV screening with direct access referral had significantly higher linkage to HCV treatment initiation (adjusted odds ratio 9.13, p = 0.005) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: PoC HCV screening with direct access improves linkage to care and simplifies the HCV care cascade, leading to improved treatment uptake. PoC education, screening, diagnosis and treatment may be an effective strategy to achieving HCV micro-elimination in this population.

Acute Pancreatitis Caused by Tamoxifen-Induced Severe Hypertriglyceridemia After 4 Years of Tamoxifen Use.

We report a case of a 55-year-old woman with hypertension and diabetes mellitus, who took tamoxifen for the past 4 years. She presented with acute pancreatitis caused by markedly elevated serum triglycerides (3,883 mg/dL). Tamoxifen is known to cause a mild increase in serum triglycerides, but it rarely increases to such high levels to cause acute pancreatitis. The patient recovered well, and tamoxifen was switched to letrozole. It is crucial to monitor serum lipids up to 4 years and beyond for patients on tamoxifen, particularly in patients with known dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus.

Proton pump inhibitor use increases mortality and hepatic decompensation in liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are widely prescribed, often without clear indications. There are conflicting data on its association with mortality risk and hepatic decompensation in cirrhotic patients. Furthermore, PPI users and PPI exposure in some studies have been poorly defined with many confounding factors. AIM: To examine if PPI use increases mortality and hepatic decompensation and the impact of cumulative PPI dose exposure. METHODS: Data from patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis were extracted from a hospital database between 2013 to 2017. PPI users were defined as cumulative defined daily dose (cDDD) ≥ 28 within a landmark period, after hospitalisation for hepatic decompensation. Cox regression analysis for comparison was done after propensity score adjustment. Further risk of hepatic decompensation was analysed by Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among 295 decompensated cirrhosis patients, 238 were PPI users and 57 were non-users. PPI users had higher mortality compared to non-users [adjusted HR = 2.10, (1.20-3.67); P = 0.009]. Longer PPI use with cDDD > 90 was associated with higher mortality, compared to non-users [aHR = 2.27, (1.10-5.14); P = 0.038]. PPI users had a higher incidence of hospitalization for hepatic decompensation [aRR = 1.61, (1.30-2.11); P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: PPI use in decompensated cirrhosis is associated with increased risk of mortality and hepatic decompensation. Longer PPI exposure with cDDD > 90 increases the risk of mortality.

A pilot study to examine the association between human gut microbiota and the host's central obesity.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Perturbance in the composition of human gut microbiota has been associated with metabolic disorders such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, and insulin resistance. The objectives of this study are to examine the effects of ethnicity, central obesity, and recorded dietary components on potentially influencing the human gut microbiome. We hypothesize that these factors have an influence on the composition of the gut microbiome. METHODS: Subjects of Chinese (n = 14), Malay (n = 10), and Indian (n = 11) ancestry, with a median age of 39 years (range: 22-70 years old), provided stool samples for gut microbiome profiling using 16S rRNA sequencing and completed a dietary questionnaire. The serum samples were assayed for a panel of biomarkers (interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor alpha, adiponectin, cleaved cytokeratin 18, lipopolysaccharide-binding protein, and limulus amebocyte lysate). Central obesity was defined by waist circumference cut-off values for Asians. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in Shannon alpha diversity for ethnicity and central obesity and no associations between levels of inflammatory cytokines and obesity. The relative abundances of Anaerofilum (P = 0.02), Gemellaceae (P = 0.02), Streptococcaceae (P = 0.03), and Rikenellaceae (P = 0.04) were significantly lower in the obese group. From principle coordinate analysis, the effects of the intake of fiber and fat/saturated fat were in contrast with each other, with clustering of obese individuals leaning toward fiber. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated that there were differences in the gut microbiome in obese individuals. Certain bacterial taxa were present in lower abundance in the group with central obesity. Fiber and fat/saturated fat diets were not the key determinants of central obesity.

Effects of proton pump inhibitor on the human gut microbiome profile in multi-ethnic groups in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: The objectives of this study were to examine the effects of ethnicity, gender and a proton pump inhibitor (PPI), omeprazole, on the human gut microbiome. PPIs are commonly used for the treatment of acid-related disorders. We hypothesised that PPI therapy might perturb microbial communities and alter the gut microbiome. METHODS: Healthy subjects of Chinese (n = 12), Malay (n = 12) and Indian (n = 10) ancestry, aged 21-37 years, were enrolled. They provided a baseline stool sample (Day 1) and were then given a course of omeprazole at therapeutic dose (20 mg daily) for seven days. Stool samples were collected again on Day 7 and 14 (one week after stopping omeprazole). Microbial DNA was extracted from the stool samples, followed by polymerase chain reaction, library construction, 16S rRNA sequencing using Illumina MiSeq, and statistical and bioinformatics analyses. RESULTS: The findings showed an increase in species richness (p = 0.018) after omeprazole consumption on Day 7, which reverted to baseline on Day 14. There were significant increases in the relative abundance of Streptococcus vestibularis (p = 0.0001) and Veillonella dispar (p = 0.0001) on Day 7, which diminished on Day 14. Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Sutterella stercoricanis and Bacteroides denticanum were characteristic of Chinese, Malays and Indians, respectively. Lactobacillaceae and Bacteroides xylanisolvens were the signature taxa of male and female subjects, respectively. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated alterations in the gut microbiome following omeprazole treatment. This may explain the underlying pathology of increased risk of Clostridium difficile infections associated with omeprazole therapy.