National, regional, and global estimates of low birthweight in 2020, with trends from 2000: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Low birthweight (LBW; <2500 g) is an important predictor of health outcomes throughout the life course. We aimed to update country, regional, and global estimates of LBW prevalence for 2020, with trends from 2000, to assess progress towards global targets to reduce LBW by 30% by 2030. METHODS: For this systematic analysis, we searched population-based, nationally representative data on LBW from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2020. Using 2042 administrative and survey datapoints from 158 countries and areas, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical regression model incorporating country-specific intercepts, time-varying covariates, non-linear time trends, and bias adjustments based on data quality. We also provided novel estimates by birthweight subgroups. FINDINGS: An estimated 19·8 million (95% credible interval 18·4-21·7 million) or 14·7% (13·7-16·1) of liveborn newborns were LBW worldwide in 2020, compared with 22·1 million (20·7-23·9 million) and 16·6% (15·5-17·9) in 2000-an absolute reduction of 1·9 percentage points between 2000 and 2020. Using 2012 as the baseline, as this is when the Global Nutrition Target began, the estimated average annual rate of reduction from 2012 to 2020 was 0·3% worldwide, 0·85% in southern Asia, and 0·59% in sub-Saharan Africa. Nearly three-quarters of LBW births in 2020 occurred in these two regions: of 19 833 900 estimated LBW births worldwide, 8 817 000 (44·5%) were in southern Asia and 5 381 300 (27·1%) were in sub-Saharan Africa. Of 945 300 estimated LBW births in northern America, Australia and New Zealand, central Asia, and Europe, approximately 35·0% (323 700) weighed less than 2000 g: 5·8% (95% CI 5·2-6·4; 54 800 [95% CI 49 400-60 800]) weighed less than 1000 g, 9·0% (8·7-9·4; 85 400 [82 000-88 900]) weighed between 1000 g and 1499 g, and 19·4% (19·0-19·8; 183 500 [180 000-187 000]) weighed between 1500 g and 1999 g. INTERPRETATION: Insufficient progress has occurred over the past two decades to meet the Global Nutrition Target of a 30% reduction in LBW between 2012 and 2030. Accelerating progress requires investments throughout the lifecycle focused on primary prevention, especially for adolescent girls and women living in the most affected countries. With increasing numbers of births in facilities and advancing electronic information systems, improvements in the quality and availability of administrative LBW data are also achievable. FUNDING: The Children's Investment Fund Foundation; the UNDP-UNFPA-UNICEF-WHO World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

National, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth in 2020, with trends from 2010: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal mortality and is associated with long-term physical, neurodevelopmental, and socioeconomic effects. This study updated national preterm birth rates and trends, plus novel estimates by gestational age subgroups, to inform progress towards global health goals and targets, and aimed to update country, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth for 2020 in addition to trends between 2010 and 2020. METHODS: We systematically searched population-based, nationally representative data on preterm birth from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2020 and study data (26 March-14 April, 2021) for countries and areas with no national-level data. The analysis included 679 data points (86% nationally representative administrative data [582 of 679 data points]) from 103 countries and areas (62% of countries and areas having nationally representative administrative data [64 of 103 data points]). A Bayesian hierarchical regression was used for estimating country-level preterm rates, which incoporated country-specific intercepts, low birthweight as a covariate, non-linear time trends, and bias adjustments based on a data quality categorisation, and other indicators such as method of gestational age estimation. FINDINGS: An estimated 13·4 million (95% credible interval [CrI] 12·3-15·2 million) newborn babies were born preterm (<37 weeks) in 2020 (9·9% of all births [95% CrI 9·1-11·2]) compared with 13·8 million (12·7-15·5 million) in 2010 (9·8% of all births [9·0-11·0]) worldwide. The global annual rate of reduction was estimated at -0·14% from 2010 to 2020. In total, 55·6% of total livebirths are in southern Asia (26·8% [36 099 000 of 134 767 000]) and sub-Saharan Africa (28·7% [38 819 300 of 134 767 000]), yet these two regions accounted for approximately 65% (8 692 000 of 13 376 200) of all preterm births globally in 2020. Of the 33 countries and areas in the highest data quality category, none were in southern Asia or sub-Saharan Africa compared with 94% (30 of 32 countries) in high-income countries and areas. Worldwide from 2010 to 2020, approximately 15% of all preterm births occurred at less than 32 weeks of gestation, requiring more neonatal care (<28 weeks: 4·2%, 95% CI 3·1-5·0, 567 800 [410 200-663 200 newborn babies]); 28-32 weeks: 10·4% [9·5-10·6], 1 392 500 [1 274 800-1 422 600 newborn babies]). INTERPRETATION: There has been no measurable change in preterm birth rates over the last decade at global level. Despite increasing facility birth rates and substantial focus on routine health data systems, there remain many missed opportunities to improve preterm birth data. Gaps in national routine data for preterm birth are most marked in regions of southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, which also have the highest estimated burden of preterm births. Countries need to prioritise programmatic investments to prevent preterm birth and to ensure evidence-based quality care when preterm birth occurs. Investments in improving data quality are crucial so that preterm birth data can be improved and used for action and accountability processes. FUNDING: The Children's Investment Fund Foundation and the UNDP, United Nations Population Fund-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.

BACKGROUND: Aedes (Stegomyia)-borne diseases are an expanding global threat, but gaps in surveillance make comprehensive and comparable risk assessments challenging. Geostatistical models combine data from multiple locations and use links with environmental and socioeconomic factors to make predictive risk maps. Here we systematically review past approaches to map risk for different Aedes-borne arboviruses from local to global scales, identifying differences and similarities in the data types, covariates, and modelling approaches used. METHODS: We searched on-line databases for predictive risk mapping studies for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever with no geographical or date restrictions. We included studies that needed to parameterise or fit their model to real-world epidemiological data and make predictions to new spatial locations of some measure of population-level risk of viral transmission (e.g. incidence, occurrence, suitability, etc.). RESULTS: We found a growing number of arbovirus risk mapping studies across all endemic regions and arboviral diseases, with a total of 176 papers published 2002-2022 with the largest increases shortly following major epidemics. Three dominant use cases emerged: (i) global maps to identify limits of transmission, estimate burden and assess impacts of future global change, (ii) regional models used to predict the spread of major epidemics between countries and (iii) national and sub-national models that use local datasets to better understand transmission dynamics to improve outbreak detection and response. Temperature and rainfall were the most popular choice of covariates (included in 50% and 40% of studies respectively) but variables such as human mobility are increasingly being included. Surprisingly, few studies (22%, 31/144) robustly tested combinations of covariates from different domains (e.g. climatic, sociodemographic, ecological, etc.) and only 49% of studies assessed predictive performance via out-of-sample validation procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Here we show that approaches to map risk for different arboviruses have diversified in response to changing use cases, epidemiology and data availability. We identify key differences in mapping approaches between different arboviral diseases, discuss future research needs and outline specific recommendations for future arbovirus mapping.

Waterpipe Tobacco Smoking and Other Multiple Sclerosis Environmental Risk Factors.

INTRODUCTION: There are a number of well-established risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS). Other factors, however, showed conflicting or inconsistent results. Here, we examine some factors that are unique to or more practiced in Saudi Arabia (SA) and the Arab region such as waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS), face veiling, raw milk (RM) and camel milk (CM) consumption, and tuberculosis (TB) infection in addition to other traditional factors. METHODS: This is a sex- and age-matched case-control study in which we used a structured questionnaire to examine the relation between a number of factors and exposures and the risk of MS. Three hundred MS patients and 601 controls were included. Data were analyzed across different statistical models using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, marital status, duration of breastfeeding, age first joining school, coffee consumption, and face exposure. RESULTS: Cigarette smoking (OR = 1.79, [95% CI: 1.01-3.17], p = 0.047), WTS (OR = 2.25, [95% CI: 1.21-4.15], p = 0.010), and CM consumption (OR = 2.50, [95% CI: 1.20-5.21], p = 0.014) increased the risk of MS, while performing hajj (OR = 0.47, [95% CI: 0.34-0.67], p = 0.001), TB infection (OR = 0.29, [95% CI: 0.11-0.78], p = 0.015), face veiling (OR = 0.32, [95% CI: 0.23-0.47], p = 0.001), and coffee consumption (OR = 0.67, [95% CI: 0.49-0.89], p = 0.008) appeared to be associated with decreased risk. No association was found between fast food, processed meat, soft drinks, animal milk (other than camel), or RM consumption and the risk of MS. CONCLUSION: The results of this case-control study confirm that different means of tobacco smoking are associated with increased risk of MS. It also sheds more light on the complex association between infections and MS.

The Early Warning and Response System (EWARS-TDR) for dengue outbreaks: can it also be applied to chikungunya and Zika outbreak warning?

BACKGROUND: In the Americas, endemic countries for Aedes-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika face great challenges particularly since the recent outbreaks of CHIKV and ZIKV, all transmitted by the same insect vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR-WHO) has developed together with partners an Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks based on a variety of alarm signals with a high sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV). The question is if this tool can also be used for the prediction of Zika and chikungunya outbreaks. METHODOLOGY: We conducted in nine districts of Mexico and one large city in Colombia a retrospective analysis of epidemiological data (for the outbreak definition) and of climate and entomological data (as potential alarm indicators) produced by the national surveillance systems for dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreak prediction covering the following outbreak years: for dengue 2012-2016, for Zika 2015-2017, for chikungunya 2014-2016. This period was divided into a "run in period" (to establish the "historical" pattern of the disease) and an "analysis period" (to identify sensitivity and PPV of outbreak prediction). RESULTS: In Mexico, the sensitivity of alarm signals for correctly predicting an outbreak was 100% for dengue, and 97% for Zika (chikungunya data could not be obtained in Mexico); the PPV was 83% for dengue and 100% for Zika. The time period between alarm and start of the outbreak (i.e. the time available for early response activities) was for Zika 4-5 weeks. In Colombia the sensitivity of the outbreak prediction was 92% for dengue, 93% for chikungunya and 100% for Zika; the PPV was 68% for dengue, 92% for chikungunya and 54% for Zika; the prediction distance was for dengue 3-5 weeks, for chikungunya 10-13 weeks and for Zika 6-10 weeks. CONCLUSION: EWARS demonstrated promising capability of timely disease outbreak prediction with an operational design likely to improve the coordination among stakeholders. However, the prediction validity varied substantially across different types of diseases and appeared less optimal in low endemic settings.

The Impact of Occupational Noise Exposure on Hyperacusis: a Longitudinal Population Study of Female Workers in Sweden.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to assess the risk of hyperacusis in relation to occupational noise exposure among female workers in general, and among women working in preschool specifically. DESIGN: A retrospective longitudinal study was performed. Survey data were collected in 2013 and 2014 from two cohorts: randomly selected women from the population in region Västra Götaland, Sweden, and women selected based on having received a preschool teacher degree from universities in the same region. The final study sample included n = 8328 women born between 1948 and 1989. Occupational noise exposure was objectively assigned to all time periods from the first to the last reported occupation throughout working life, using the Swedish Job-Exposure Matrix (JEM) with three exposure intervals: <75 dB(A), 75 to 85 dB(A), and >85 dB(A). The JEM assigns preschool teachers to the 75 to 85 dB(A) exposure interval. The outcome hyperacusis was assessed by self-report using one question addressing discomfort or pain from everyday sounds. In the main analysis, a hyperacusis event was defined by the reported year of onset, if reported to occur at least a few times each week. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed using more strict definitions: (a) at least several times each week and (b) every day. The risk (hazard ratio, HR) of hyperacusis was analyzed in relation to years of occupational noise exposure, using survival analysis with frailty regression modeling accounting for individual variation in survival times which reflect, for example, noise exposure during years prior to onset. Occupational noise exposure was defined by the occupation held at year of hyperacusis onset, or the occupation held at the survey year if no event occurred. Models were adjusted for confounders including age, education, income, family history of hearing loss, and change of jobs due to noise. RESULTS: In total, n = 1966 hyperacusis events between 1960 and 2014 were analyzed in the main analysis. A significantly increased risk of hyperacusis was found among women working in any occupation assigned to the 75 to 85 dB(A) noise exposure group [HR: 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.4-2.9], compared with the reference group <75 dB(A). The risk was tripled among preschool teachers specifically (HR: 3.4, 95% CI: 3.0-3.7), with the crude Kaplan-Meier curve showing a higher rate of onset early in the working life in preschool teachers compared with all the other exposure groups. The risk was increased, but not statistically significant in the main analysis, for the highest exposure group >85 dB(A), where only six hyperacusis events were identified (HR: 1.4, 95% CI: 0.6-3.1). In the sensitivity analysis, where hyperacusis was defined as occurring every day, the HR was significant also in the highest exposure group (HR: 3.8, 95% CI: 1.4-10.3), and generally slightly higher in the other exposure groups compared to the main analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates increased risk of hyperacusis already below the permissible occupational noise exposure limit in Sweden (85 dB LAeq,8h) among female workers in general, and in particular among preschool teachers. Prospective studies and less wide exposure intervals could confirm causal effects and assess dose-response relationships, respectively, although this study at present suggest a need for risk assessment, improved hearing prevention measures, and noise abatement measures in occupations with noise levels from 75 dB(A). The results could also have implications for management of occupational disability claims.

Factors shaping the COVID-19 epidemic curve: a multi-country analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lockdown measures are the backbone of containment measures for the COVID-19 pandemic both in high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, in view of the inevitably-occurring second and third global covid-19 wave, assessing the success and impact of containment measures on the epidemic curve of COVID-19 and people's compliance with such measures is crucial for more effective policies. To determine the containment measures influencing the COVID-19 epidemic curve in nine targeted countries across high-, middle-, and low-income nations. METHODS: Four HICs (Germany, Sweden, Italy, and South Korea) and five LMICs (Mexico, Colombia, India, Nigeria, and Nepal) were selected to assess the association using interrupted time series analysis of daily case numbers and deaths of COVID-19 considering the following factors: The "stringency index (SI)" indicating how tight the containment measures were implemented in each country; and the level of compliance with the prescribed measures using human mobility data. Additionally, a scoping review was conducted to contextualize the findings. RESULTS: Most countries implemented quite rigorous lockdown measures, particularly the LMICs (India, Nepal, and Colombia) following the model of HICs (Germany and Italy). Exceptions were Sweden and South Korea, which opted for different strategies. The compliance with the restrictions-measured as mobility related to home office, restraining from leisure activities, non-use of local transport and others-was generally good, except in Sweden and South Korea where the restrictions were limited. The endemic curves and time-series analysis showed that the containment measures were successful in HICs but not in LMICs. CONCLUSION: The imposed lockdown measures are alarming, particularly in resource-constrained settings where such measures are independent of the population segment, which drives the virus transmission. Methods for examining people's movements or hardships that are caused by covid- no work, no food situation are inequitable. Novel and context-adapted approach of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis are therefore crucial.

Upper mini sternotomy approach for pulmonary artery banding: A single centre experience.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary artery banding (PAB) remains a crucial technique in modern cardiac surgery. Left lateral thoracotomy, median sternotomy, and left anterior thoracotomy are well-known approaches. With significant scarce reports addressing the application of the upper mini sternotomy approach for PAB, this study aims to share experience and report outcomes of patients operated upon using this approach and its impact on facilitating the redo surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Since 2015, we practiced the use upper mini sternotomy approach for PAB in the study center where we conducted this retrospective study of 22 patients who underwent banding through the upper mini sternotomy approach. Indications varied between complete atrioventricular septal defect, multiple muscular ventricular septal defects, and univentricular heart with increased pulmonary blood flow. RESULTS: At the time of PAB, the medians of age 2.0 (1-4.5) months and bodyweight of 3.1 (1.9-4.2) kg were reported against a surgery time range of 75- 135 min and peak gradient across the band of 54-78 mmHg. There was one unrelated mortality case (4.5%) due to a severe attack of pulmonary hypertensive crisis. Fifteen patients underwent the redo surgery. No mortality or sternotomy-related complications were reported following the second stage surgery while the reopening time ranged between 17 and 32 min. CONCLUSIONS: The upper mini sternotomy approach for PAB is safe and facilitates the subsequent redo surgery and could be a valuable alternative to other surgical approaches.

Hair cortisol-a method to detect chronic cortisol levels in patients with Prader-Willi syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS) is a multisymptomatic, rare, genetic, neurodevelopmental disorder in adults mainly characterized by hyperphagia, cognitive dysfunction, behavioral problems and risk of morbid obesity. Although endocrine insufficiencies are common, hypocortisolism is rare and knowledge on long-term cortisol concentrations is lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term cortisol levels in PWS by measurements of hair cortisol. METHODS: Twenty-nine adults with PWS, 15 men and 14 women, median age 29 years, median BMI 27 kg/m2, were included. Scalp hair samples were analyzed for cortisol content using liquid-chromatography tandem-mass spectrometry. In addition, a questionnaire on auxology, medication and stress were included. For comparison, 105 age- and sex-matched participants from the population-based Lifelines Cohort study were included as controls. The mean hair cortisol between the groups were compared and associations between BMI and stress were assessed by a generalized linear regression model. RESULTS: In the PWS group large variations in hair cortisol was seen. Mean hair cortisol was 12.8 ± 25.4 pg/mg compared to 3.8 ± 7.3 pg/mg in controls (p = 0.001). The linear regression model similarly showed higher cortisol levels in patients with PWS, which remained consistent after adjusting for BMI and stress (p = 0.023). Furthermore, hair cortisol increased with BMI (p = 0.012) and reported stress (p = 0.014). CONCLUSION: Long-term cortisol concentrations were higher in patients with PWS compared to controls and increased with BMI and stress, suggesting an adequate cortisol response to chronic stress. Hair cortisol demonstrate promising applications in the context of PWS treatment and disease management.

An integrated approach to processing WHO-2016 verbal autopsy data: the InterVA-5 model.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy is an increasingly important methodology for assigning causes to otherwise uncertified deaths, which amount to around 50% of global mortality and cause much uncertainty for health planning. The World Health Organization sets international standards for the structure of verbal autopsy interviews and for cause categories that can reasonably be derived from verbal autopsy data. In addition, computer models are needed to efficiently process large quantities of verbal autopsy interviews to assign causes of death in a standardised manner. Here, we present the InterVA-5 model, developed to align with the WHO-2016 verbal autopsy standard. This is a harmonising model that can process input data from WHO-2016, as well as earlier WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats, to generate standardised cause-specific mortality profiles for diverse contexts. The software development involved building on the earlier InterVA-4 model, and the expanded knowledge base required for InterVA-5 was informed by analyses from a training dataset drawn from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration verbal autopsy reference dataset, as well as expert input. RESULTS: The new model was evaluated against a test dataset of 6130 cases from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration and 4009 cases from the Afghanistan National Mortality Survey dataset. Both of these sources contained around three quarters of the input items from the WHO-2016, WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats. Cause-specific mortality fractions across all applicable WHO cause categories were compared between causes assigned in participating tertiary hospitals and InterVA-5 in the test dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.92 for children and 0.86 for adults. The InterVA-5 model's capacity to handle different input formats was evaluated in the Afghanistan dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.97 and 0.96 between the WHO-2016 and the WHO-2012 format for children and adults respectively, and 0.92 and 0.87 between the WHO-2016 and the Tariff-2 format respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the inherent difficulties of determining "truth" in assigning cause of death, these findings suggest that the InterVA-5 model performs well and succeeds in harmonising across a range of input formats. As more primary data collected under WHO-2016 become available, it is likely that InterVA-5 will undergo minor re-versioning in the light of practical experience. The model is an important resource for measuring and evaluating cause-specific mortality globally.

Safer paediatric surgical teams: A 5-year evaluation of crew resource management implementation and outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate longitudinal changes in technical and non-technical skills (teamwork, situation monitoring, communication and leadership), safety culture, and clinical outcomes before and after implementation of a crew resource management (CRM) safety program. DESIGN: A multi-level prospective single case study in accordance with the SQUIRE-guidelines for reporting quality improvement efforts. SETTING: Large university paediatric surgical service. PARTICIPANT(S): All 153 managers and staff. INTERVENTIONS: Training of staff in CRM, systematic risk assessments, and the redesign of work practices captured and reinforced through the development, implementation and refinement of SOPs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Data were collected related to: 1) Relevance of CRM training (survey), 2) Safety culture (survey), 3) Team behaviours in clinical practice (non-participatory observations with MedPACT protocol) and 4) Effects on perioperative care for laparoscopic appendectomies-a representative and frequently performed surgical procedure (electronic medical records and administrative data for length of stay, unplanned readmissions and returns to the Operating Room). RESULTS: Non-technical skills, the use of safety tools, as well as adherence to guidelines for appendectomies all improved significantly over time. Significant safety culture improvements were found in teamwork across and within units, supervisors' expectations and actions, non-punitive response to adverse events, and perceptions of overall patient safety. Unplanned readmissions following appendectomy declined significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a comprehensive CRM program including associated safety tools created sustained adherence to new work practices and improved non-technical and technical skills, surgical outcomes and safety culture.

Effects of recall time on cause-of-death findings using verbal autopsy: empirical evidence from rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a widely used technique for assigning causes to non-medically certified deaths using information gathered from a close caregiver. Both operational and cultural factors may cause delays in follow-up of deaths. The resulting time lag-from death to VA interview-can influence ways in which terminal events are remembered, and thus affect cause-of-death assignment. This study investigates the impact of recall period on causes of death determined by VA. METHODS: A total of 10,882 deaths from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) with complete VAs, including recall period, were incorporated in this study. To measure seasonal effect, cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated and compared by every cause for VAs undertaken within six months of death and those undertaken from six to 12 months of death. All causes were classified into eight broad categories and entered in a multiple logistic regression to explore outcome by recall period in relation to covariates. RESULTS: The majority of deaths (83 %) had VAs completed within 12 months. There was a tendency towards longer recall periods for deaths of those under one year or over 65 years of age. Only the acute respiratory, diarrhoeal and other unspecified non-communicable disease groups showed a CSMF ratio significantly different from unity at the 99 % confidence level between the two recall periods. Only neonatal deaths showed significantly different OR for recall exceeding 12 months (OR 1.69; p value = 0.004) and this increased when adjusting for background factors (OR 2.58; p value = 0.000). CONCLUSION: A recall period of up to one year between death and VA interview did not have any consequential effects on the cause-of-death patterns derived, with the exception of neonatal causes. This is an important operational consideration given the planned widespread use of the VA approach in civil registration, HDSS sites and occasional surveys.

Usage and cost of first-line drugs for patients referred to inpatient anthroposophic integrative care or inpatient conventional care for stress-related mental disorders--a register based study.

BACKGROUND: Stress-related mental disorders (SRMD) are common and costly. Rehabilitation strategies, including pharmacotherapy, may be complicated to evaluate. Previous research has indicated increased quality of life and self-rated health for SRMD patients that receive a combination of conventional and complementary therapies, i.e. integrative care. The aim of this retrospective registry study was to explore and contrast the prescription of first-line drugs for SRMD patients referred to hospital inpatient anthroposophic integrative care (AIC) or inpatient conventional care (CC). METHODS: SRMD patients that had received AIC or CC were identified through high-quality inpatient registry data from Stockholm County Council and matched by available background characteristics including diagnosis (ICD-10: F43), age, gender and socio-economics. General disease load was estimated by analysis of ICD-10 chapter data. The Swedish Prescribed Drug Register was then used to investigate purchased defined daily doses (DDD) and cost of drugs from 90-days before/after, and 180-days before/after, the first visits (index) to AIC and CC respectively. First-line drug categories were Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification codes N05A (antipsychotics), N05B (anxiolytics), N05C (hypnotics and sedatives) and N06A (antidepressants). RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences between the AIC (n = 161) and the CC (n = 1571) cohorts in terms of background characteristics and the overall disease loads were similar between the groups the preceding year. At baseline, the prescription of first-line anxiolytics and antidepressants were not statistically different between groups whereas the prescription of antipsychotics and hypnotics/sedatives were lower for the AIC cohort. The overall change in drug prescriptions and costs during the investigated periods, both for the 90-days before/after and for the 180-days before/after the index visit, showed a general decrease within the AIC cohort with significantly less prescribed anxiolytics and hypnotics/sedatives. During the same time periods there was a general increase in prescriptions and costs of first-line drugs within the CC cohort. The overall disease loads were generally stable within both cohorts over time, except that the CC cohort had increased visits registered with an ICD-10 F-chapter diagnosis the year after index. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggests that there may be different drug utilization patterns for SRMD patients referred to AIC or CC. Different management strategies between AIC and CC providers, different SRMD disease severities and different preferences of patients referred to AIC and CC are hypothetical differentiating factors that may influence drug outcomes over time. Additional studies including prospective and randomized clinical trials are warranted to determine if there is a causal link between inpatient AIC and reduced drug utilization.

Enabling countries to manage outbreaks: statistical, operational, and contextual analysis of the early warning and response system (EWARS-csd) for dengue outbreaks.

Introduction: Dengue is currently the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne viral illness in the world, with over half of the world's population living in areas at risk of dengue. As dengue continues to spread and become more of a health burden, it is essential to have tools that can predict when and where outbreaks might occur to better prepare vector control operations and communities' responses. One such predictive tool, the Early Warning and Response System for climate-sensitive diseases (EWARS-csd), primarily uses climatic data to alert health systems of outbreaks weeks before they occur. EWARS-csd uses the robust Distribution Lag Non-linear Model in combination with the INLA Bayesian regression framework to predict outbreaks, utilizing historical data. This study seeks to validate the tool's performance in two states of Colombia, evaluating how well the tool performed in 11 municipalities of varying dengue endemicity levels. Methods: The validation study used retrospective data with alarm indicators (mean temperature and rain sum) and an outbreak indicator (weekly hospitalizations) from 11 municipalities spanning two states in Colombia from 2015 to 2020. Calibrations of different variables were performed to find the optimal sensitivity and positive predictive value for each municipality. Results: The study demonstrated that the tool produced overall reliable early outbreak alarms. The median of the most optimal calibration for each municipality was very high: sensitivity (97%), specificity (94%), positive predictive value (75%), and negative predictive value (99%; 95% CI). Discussion: The tool worked well across all population sizes and all endemicity levels but had slightly poorer results in the highly endemic municipality at predicting non-outbreak weeks. Migration and/or socioeconomic status are factors that might impact predictive performance and should be further evaluated. Overall EWARS-csd performed very well, providing evidence that it should continue to be implemented in Colombia and other countries for outbreak prediction.

Community perception of causes of death using verbal autopsy for diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia.

Diabetes mellitus is a serious global health issue which significantly impacts public health and socioeconomic development. Exploring how the community perceives the causes of death and their associated risk factors is crucial for public health. This study combines verbal autopsy (VA) with the Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) register to explore community perceptions of causes of death and associated influential factors in Makkah province, Saudi Arabia. 302 VA interviews were conducted with relatives or caregivers of deceased who died between 2018 and 2021 based on T2DM medical register from Alnoor Specialist Hospital in Makkah City, Saudi Arabia. Cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) obtained from the VA using the InterVA-5 model were utilized to assess community perception. We used a multivariable logistic regression model to determine factors influencing community perceptions of causes of death. Lin's CCC with 95% CI was used to analyze the concordance for the CSMFs from verbal autopsy causes of death (VACoD) as a presumed reference standard and family-reported causes of death (FRCoD). The outcomes of this study demonstrate a generally broad spectrum of community perceived mortalities, with some critical misconceptions based on the type of death and other vital events like marital status, with an overall CCC of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.20-1.00; p = 003). The study findings demonstrate that community perception is weak if the deceased was male compared to female (aOR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.26-1.03) and if the deceased was > = 80 years compared to 34-59 years (aOR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.16-1.38), but it significantly improves among married compared to single (aOR: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.02-4.42). Exploring community perception of causes of death is crucial as it provides valuable insights into the community's understanding, beliefs, and concerns regarding mortality. Higher or lower community perception is attributed to how people may perceive risk factors associated with the causes of death, which can guide public health planning and interventional programs. The study findings further emphasize the need to employ robust and standardized VA methods within the routine medical services for a systemized assessment of families' reported causes of death.

Public perspective toward extended community pharmacy services in sub-national Saudi Arabia: An online cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: In many developed countries, the scope of community pharmacy services has extended to include advanced applications. Unlike traditional practices that focus on pharmaceutical sales, extended community pharmacy services (ECPSs) are patient-centred and typically offered by specialised healthcare centres, which improve public health, reduce pressure imposed on healthcare professionals, and rationalise health system expenditures. However, based on the findings of several studies, community pharmacies (CPs) only provide marginalised services. Public reviews are thus crucial to effectively utilise such services. This study explored CPs use among the Saudi public in terms of knowledge, attitudes, and barriers to ECPSs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional web-based survey of a non-probability sample between October and December 2021. Numerical and graphical descriptive statistics were employed with an additional analytical assessment using binary logistic regression to determine the association between participant characteristics and the barriers to ECPSs use. RESULTS: A total of 563 individuals participated in this study, approximately 33% of which revealed CPs as the first place they visit for medication concerns. Most individuals were not aware of medication therapy management and health screening services (77% and 68%, respectively). Pharmacy clinics offering private counselling and receiving patient electronic medical records were unknown to the participants (78% and 63%, respectively). A substantial proportion of the cohort considered lack of privacy (58%) and inadequate communication with community pharmacists (56%) as key barriers to the use of ECPSs. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the underdeveloped infrastructure of CPs was significantly associated with almost all factors. CONCLUSION: Most services and facilities were found to be underutilised. Positive public attitudes were associated with concerns regarding privacy and cost of services. Consistent with Saudi Vision 2030, supporting CPs and increasing the public awareness of ECPSs have significant implications on public health.

Early warning and response system for dengue outbreaks: Moving from research to operational implementation in Mexico.

Dengue disease epidemics have increased in time and space due to climatic and non-climatic factors such as urbanization. In the absence of an effective vaccine, preventing dengue outbreak relies on vector control activities. Employing computerized tools to predict outbreaks and respond in advance has great potential for improving dengue disease control. Evidence of integrating or implementing such applications into control programs and their impact are scarce, and endemic countries demand for experience sharing and know-how transfer. Mexico has extensive experience of pre-validated EWARS (Early Warning And Response System), a tool that was developed in 2012 as part of a collaboration with the Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases Unit (TDR) at the World Health Organization and used at national level. The advancement of EWARS since 2014 and its stepwise integration into the national surveillance system has increased the appreciation of the need for integrated surveillance (including disease, vector and climate surveillance), and for linking inter-institutional and trans-sectoral information for holistic epidemiological intelligence. The integration of the EWARS software into the national surveillance platform in Mexico was a remarkable milestone and a successful experience. This manuscript describes the implementation process of EWARS in Mexico, which started in 2012 and further demonstrates benefits, threats, and opportunities of integrating EWARS into existing national surveillance programs.

Community pharmacists' perspectives towards automated pharmacy systems and extended community pharmacy services: An online cross-sectional study.

Background: Private sector partnerships through community pharmacies are essential for effective healthcare integration to achieve the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals. This partnership can provide significant clinical outcomes and reduce health system expenditures by delivering services focused on patient-centred care, such as public health screening and medication therapy management. Objectives: To assess the understanding of the proposed strategic and health system reform in Saudi Arabia by exploring community pharmacists' perspectives towards the capacity and readiness of community pharmacies to use automated pharmacy systems, provide extended community pharmacy services, and identify perceived barriers. Materials and methods: This multicentre, cross-sectional, web-based survey was conducted in Saudi Arabia (October-December 2021). Graphical and numerical statistics were used to describe key dimensions by the background and characteristics of the respondents, and multiple ordinal logistic regression analyses were sought to assess their associations. Results: Of the 403 consenting and participating community pharmacists, most were male (94%), belonged to chain pharmacies (77%), and worked >48 h per week (72%). Automated pharmacy systems, such as electronic prescriptions, were never utilised (50%), and health screening services, such as blood glucose (76%) and blood pressure measurement (74%), were never provided. Services for medication therapy management were somewhat limited. Age groups ≤40 years, chain pharmacies, >10 years of experience and ≥ 3 pharmacists in place with <100 daily medication prescriptions and Jazan province were significantly more likely to provide all medication therapy management services than others. Operational factors were the barriers most significantly associated with the independent variables. Conclusion: The results showed that most services and automated pharmacy systems remained limited and well-needed. When attempting to implement these services to drive change, community pharmacies face numerous challenges, and urgent efforts by private and government sectors are essential to improve pharmaceutical care in community pharmacy settings.

Factors associated with time to first dialysis-associated peritonitis episode: Data from the Peritonitis Prevention Study (PEPS).

INTRODUCTION: Peritonitis remains a potentially serious complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD) treatment. It is therefore important to identify risk factors in order to reduce the incidence of peritonitis. The aim of the present analysis was to identify factors associated with time to first peritonitis episode. METHODS: Incident PD patients from 57 centres in Europe participated in the prospective randomised controlled Peritonitis Prevention Study (PEPS) from 2010 to 2015. Peritonitis-free, self-care PD patients ≥18 years were randomised to a retraining or a control group and followed for 1-36 months after PD initiation. The association of biochemical, clinical and prescription data with time to first peritonitis episode was studied. RESULTS: A first peritonitis episode was experienced by 33% (223/671) of participants. Univariable Cox proportional hazard regression showed a strong association between the time-updated number of PD bags connected per 24 h (PD bags/24 h) and time to first peritonitis episode (HR 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-1.57), even after inclusion of PD modalities in the same model. Multivariable Cox regression revealed that the factors independently associated with time to first peritonitis episode included age (HR 1.16 per 10 years; 95% CI 1.05-1.28), PD bags/24 h (HR 1.32; 95% CI 1.13-1.54), serum albumin <35 versus >35 g/L (HR 1.39; 95% CI 1.06-1.82) and body weight per 10 kg (HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.19). CONCLUSION: This study of incident PD patients indicates that older age, greater number of PD bags connected/24 h, higher body weight and hypoalbuminaemia are independently associated with a shorter time to first peritonitis episode.

Patterns and contextual determinants of antibiotic prescribing for febrile under-five outpatients at primary and secondary healthcare facilities in Bugisu, Eastern Uganda.

Objectives: To describe patterns and contextual determinants of antibiotic prescribing for febrile under-five outpatients at primary and secondary healthcare facilities across Bugisu, Eastern Uganda. Methods: We surveyed 37 public and private-not-for-profit healthcare facilities and conducted a retrospective review of antimicrobial prescribing patterns among febrile under-five outpatients (with a focus on antibiotics) in 2019-20, based on outpatient registers. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants of antibiotic prescribing at patient- and healthcare facility-levels. Results: Antibiotics were prescribed for 62.2% of 3471 febrile under-five outpatients. There were a total of 2478 antibiotic prescriptions of 22 antibiotic types: amoxicillin (52.2%), co-trimoxazole (14.7%), metronidazole (6.9%), gentamicin (5.7%), ceftriaxone (5.3%), ampicillin/cloxacillin (3.6%), penicillin (3.1%), and others (8.6%). Acute upper respiratory tract infection (AURTI) was the commonest single indication for antibiotic prescribing, with 76.3% of children having AURTI as their only documented diagnosis receiving antibiotic prescriptions. Only 9.2% of children aged 2-59 months with non-severe pneumonia received antibiotic prescriptions in line with national guidelines. Higher health centre levels, and private-not-for-profit ownership (adjusted OR, 4.30; 95% CI, 1.91-9.72) were significant contextual determinants of antibiotic prescribing. Conclusions: We demonstrated a high antibiotic prescribing prevalence among febrile under-five outpatients in Bugisu, Eastern Uganda, including prescriptions for co-trimoxazole and ampicillin/cloxacillin (which are not indicated in the management of the common causes of under-five febrile illness in Uganda). Study findings may be linked to limited diagnostic capacity and inadequate antibiotic availability, which require prioritization in interventions aimed at improving rational antibiotic prescribing among febrile under-five outpatients.