Delay differential equations for the spatially resolved simulation of epidemics with specific application to COVID-19.

In the wake of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic, much work has been performed on the development of mathematical models for the simulation of the epidemic and of disease models generally. Most works follow the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) compartmental framework, modeling the epidemic with a system of ordinary differential equations. Alternative formulations using a partial differential equation (PDE) to incorporate both spatial and temporal resolution have also been introduced, with their numerical results showing potentially powerful descriptive and predictive capacity. In the present work, we introduce a new variation to such models by using delay differential equations (DDEs). The dynamics of many infectious diseases, including COVID-19, exhibit delays due to incubation periods and related phenomena. Accordingly, DDE models allow for a natural representation of the problem dynamics, in addition to offering advantages in terms of computational time and modeling, as they eliminate the need for additional, difficult-to-estimate, compartments (such as exposed individuals) to incorporate time delays. In the present work, we introduce a DDE epidemic model in both an ordinary and partial differential equation framework. We present a series of mathematical results assessing the stability of the formulation. We then perform several numerical experiments, validating both the mathematical results and establishing model's ability to reproduce measured data on realistic problems.

Stability analysis of a hyperbolic stochastic Galerkin formulation for the Aw-Rascle-Zhang model with relaxation.

We investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the Aw-Rascle-Zhang model, which belongs to a class of second order traffic flow models described by a system of nonlinear hyperbolic equations. The stochastic quantities are expanded in terms of wavelet-based series expansions. Then, they are projected to obtain a deterministic system for the coefficients in the truncated series. Stochastic Galerkin formulations are presented in conservative form and for smooth solutions also in the corresponding non-conservative form. This allows to obtain stabilization results, when the system is relaxed to a first-order model. Computational tests illustrate the theoretical results.