A prospective study on the prevalence of MASLD in people with type-2 diabetes in the community. Cost effectiveness of screening strategies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: As screening for the liver disease and risk-stratification pathways are not established in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), we evaluated the diagnostic performance and the cost-utility of different screening strategies for MASLD in the community. METHODS: Consecutive patients with T2DM from primary care underwent screening for liver diseases, ultrasound, ELF score and transient elastography (TE). Five strategies were compared to the standard of care: ultrasound plus abnormal liver function tests (LFTs), Fibrosis score-4 (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score, Enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF) and TE. Standard of care was defined as abnormal LFTs prompting referral to hospital. A Markov model was built based on the fibrosis stage, defined by TE. We generated the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Of 300 patients, 287 were included: 64% (186) had MASLD and 10% (28) had other causes of liver disease. Patients with significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis due to MASLD were 17% (50/287), 11% (31/287) and 3% (8/287), respectively. Among those with significant fibrosis classified by LSM≥8.1 kPa, false negatives were 54% from ELF and 38% from FIB-4. On multivariate analysis, waist circumference, BMI, AST levels and education rank were independent predictors of significant and advanced fibrosis. All the screening strategies were associated with QALY gains, with TE (148.73 years) having the most substantial gains, followed by FIB-4 (134.07 years), ELF (131.68 years) and NAFLD fibrosis score (121.25 years). In the cost-utility analysis, ICER was £2480/QALY for TE, £2541.24/QALY for ELF and £2059.98/QALY for FIB-4. CONCLUSION: Screening for MASLD in the diabetic population in primary care is cost-effective and should become part of a holistic assessment. However, traditional screening strategies, including FIB-4 and ELF, underestimate the presence of significant liver disease in this setting.

A scoping review of core outcome sets and their 'mapping' onto real-world data using prostate cancer as a case study.

BACKGROUND: A Core Outcomes Set (COS) is an agreed minimum set of outcomes that should be reported in all clinical studies related to a specific condition. Using prostate cancer as a case study, we identified, summarized, and critically appraised published COS development studies and assessed the degree of overlap between them and selected real-world data (RWD) sources. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) Initiative database to identify all COS studies developed for prostate cancer. Several characteristics (i.e., study type, methods for consensus, type of participants, outcomes included in COS and corresponding measurement instruments, timing, and sources) were extracted from the studies; outcomes were classified according to a predefined 38-item taxonomy. The study methodology was assessed based on the recent COS-STAndards for Development (COS-STAD) recommendations. A 'mapping' exercise was conducted between the COS identified and RWD routinely collected in selected European countries. RESULTS: Eleven COS development studies published between 1995 and 2017 were retrieved, of which 8 were classified as 'COS for clinical trials and clinical research', 2 as 'COS for practice' and 1 as 'COS patient reported outcomes'. Recommended outcomes were mainly categorized into 'mortality and survival' (17%), 'outcomes related to neoplasm' (18%), and 'renal and urinary outcomes' (13%) with no relevant differences among COS study types. The studies generally fulfilled the criteria for the COS-STAD 'scope specification' domain but not the 'stakeholders involved' and 'consensus process' domains. About 72% overlap existed between COS and linked administrative data sources, with important gaps. Linking with patient registries improved coverage (85%), but was sometimes limited to smaller follow-up patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: This scoping review identified few COS development studies in prostate cancer, some quite dated and with a growing level of methodological quality over time. This study revealed promising overlap between COS and RWD sources, though with important limitations; linking established, national patient registries to administrative data provide the best means to additionally capture patient-reported and some clinical outcomes over time. Thus, increasing the combination of different data sources and the interoperability of systems to follow larger patient groups in RWD is required.

Gender differences in COVID-19 preventative measures and vaccination rates in the United States: A longitudinal survey analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pandemics present challenges for individuals as they face uncertainties, risks, and decisions which influence their attitudes towards public health interventions. This study investigates gender differences in attitudes towards COVID-19 preventive measures and vaccination intentions in the United States, focusing on the link between risk perception and attitudes towards public health guidelines. METHODS: We utilised data from the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of U.S. adults from March 2020 to March 2022 to assess how gender differences in health risk perception were associated with attitudes, behaviours, and vaccination intentions, while also evaluating how these gender effects changed over time. We used multilevel logistic regression models to adjust for age, level of education, employment status and income. RESULTS: Women had a higher risk perception of COVID-19 and exhibited greater compliance with preventive measures compared to men. Women also showed higher agreement with COVID-19 restraining public policy measures. However, this contrasted with attitudes towards the COVID-19 vaccine, where men displayed more positive views and a higher intention to receive the vaccine. This gender effect was persistent over time. CONCLUSIONS: This seemingly paradoxical outcome suggests that while women's heightened risk perception relative to men's leads to greater adherence to non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 preventative public health interventions, it may also result in more negative views towards the novel COVID-19 vaccine. Understanding the complex interactions between risk perception, behaviour, and gender can inform policymakers and health authorities to tailor interventions that address the diverse needs of the population.

Global consumption patterns of combination hypertension medication: An analysis of pharmaceutical sales data from 2010-2021.

Hypertension is the most significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality worldwide, affecting 1.3 billion adults. Global disparities in hypertension control are widening with low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) having the fastest growing rates of hypertension and low rates of control. Treatment for hypertension can be challenging, with multiple drug classes and dosing schedules. Combination antihypertensives have been suggested as a solution for their efficacy and potential to improve adherence. Global consumption of combination and non-combination antihypertensives across 75 countries and 2 regions from 2010 to 2021 was estimated using the IQVIA MIDAS database on pharmaceutical sales. Consumption rates were standardized using Standard Units (SUs) and analysed by high-income (HIC), upper-middle income (UMIC), and LMIC income classification. Global median consumption rate of all antihypertensives per 1000 inhabitants per day increased from 184.78 SUs in 2010 to 325.6 SUs in 2021, with HICs consistently having the highest rates. Median consumption rates of combination and non-combination antihypertensives increased across all country income groups but combination drugs were consumed at a lower rate and proportion. LMICs consumed a higher percentage of combination antihypertensives relative to non-combination (45.5%) than UMICs (24.3%) and HICs (24.4%) in 2021. While combination antihypertensives may be preferred for their potential for increased adherence and effectiveness, their global uptake is inconsistent. HICs consume less combination medication relative to non-combination, despite higher overall consumption rates of antihypertensives. LMICs show increasing use of combination medications, indicating a shift towards their use.

How to Use Quasi-Experimental Methods in Cardiovascular Research: A Review of Current Practice.

BACKGROUND: Quasi-experimental methods (QEMs) are a family of techniques used to estimate causal relationships when randomized controlled trials are unfeasible or unethical. They offer a powerful alternative to observational studies by introducing random assignment of individuals or groups into their design, thereby offering stronger means of establishing causation. The use of QEMs in cardiovascular research has not been systematically examined to determine steps toward improving and expanding their use. METHODS: We identified 4 main techniques using a systematic search strategy from 2016 to 2021: instrumental variable analysis, interrupted time series analysis, difference-in-differences analysis, and regression discontinuity designs. QEMs are examined as alternatives to randomized controlled trials and traditional observational studies; as more observational data becomes available to researchers, there are more opportunities to apply these techniques. Eligible articles were selected based on publication in high-ranked journals. The quality of eligible articles was appraised using the Joanna Briggs Institute checklist for quasi-experimental studies. RESULTS: Data from 380 studies were extracted based on our inclusion criteria. Forty-two of these studies were published in the top 10 medical or top 20 cardiovascular disease journals, and 25 studies were included after quality appraisal. The review identifies the main features and limitations associated with each technique, providing readers with practical guidance on how to apply these to their research. A graphical decision aid was developed to facilitate the routine use of QEMs. CONCLUSIONS: The use of QEMs in cardiovascular research published in contemporary, high-impact articles was examined. Findings are biased toward this segment of literature, which represents the latest developments in this growing area of cardiovascular research. The decision aid is a novel schematic that researchers can adopt into practice.

A clinical and cost-effectiveness analysis of the HeartMate 3 left ventricular assist device for transplant-ineligible patients: A United Kingdom perspective.

BACKGROUND: The clinical and cost-effectiveness of left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy for patients with advanced heart failure (HF) who are ineligible for heart transplantation is debated in the UK. This study develops an indirect comparison between the fully magnetically levitated HeartMate 3 (HM 3) LVAD and medical therapy (MT) to evaluate expected clinical and cost-effectiveness in the UK National Health Service (NHS) context. METHODS: We performed an economic analysis comparing the HM3 pump against the HeartMate II LVAD (MOMENTUM 3), and then another analysis comparing MT with the first- and second-generation HeartMate XVE pump LVAD and HeartMate II LVAD for the same patient population (REMATCH and ROADMAP, respectively). By bridging those 2 analyses, an indirect comparison between HM3 and MT in the form of a network meta-analysis was developed. A literature search was performed to select the most appropriate pair of studies for this purpose. Outcomes were adjusted to produce Kaplan-Meier curves for the cost-effectiveness evaluation by using a decision-analytic model. Data were extrapolated linearly over a 5-year time horizon. Uncertainty and additional scenarios were addressed by one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Local costs and health utility were used from England, thereby representing the UK context. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for LVAD vs MT in transplant ineligible patients with advanced HF was estimated to be £47,361 per quality-adjusted life year gained, with a 97.1% probability of being cost-effective at £50,000. In a subgroup of patients who are inotropic therapy dependent (INTERMACS 1-3 severity profile), the ICER was £45,616, while for a population with less-ill ambulatory HF (INTERMACS profile 4-7) the ICER changed to £64,051. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that HM3 LVAD therapy in advanced HF patients ineligible for heart transplantation may be cost-effective compared to MT in the NHS UK-England context. The ICER is lowest for patients dependent on inotropic support, but exceeds the willingness to pay threshold of £50,000 in ambulatory noninotropic therapy dependent advanced HF patients.

Feasibility of novel adult tuberculosis vaccination in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis.

Early trials of novel vaccines against tuberculosis (TB) in adults have suggested substantial protection against TB. However, little is known about the feasibility and affordability of rolling out such vaccines in practice. We conducted expert interviews to identify plausible vaccination implementation strategies for the novel M72/AS01E vaccine candidate. The strategies were defined in terms of target population, coverage, vaccination schedule and delivery mode. We modelled these strategies to estimate long-term resource requirements and health benefits arising from vaccination over 2025-2050. We presented these to experts who excluded strategies that were deemed infeasible, and estimated cost-effectiveness and budget impact for each remaining strategy. The four strategies modelled combined target populations: either everyone aged 18-50, or all adults living with HIV, with delivery strategies: either a mass campaign followed by routine vaccination of 18-year olds, or two mass campaigns 10 years apart. Delivering two mass campaigns to all 18-50-year olds was found to be the most cost-effective strategy conferring the greatest net health benefit of 1.2 million DALYs averted having a probability of being cost-effective of 65-70%. This strategy required 38 million vaccine courses to be delivered at a cost of USD 507 million, reducing TB-related costs by USD 184 million while increasing ART costs by USD 79 million. A suitably designed adult TB vaccination programme built around novel TB vaccines is likely to be cost-effective and affordable given the resource and budget constraints in South Africa.

Potential implementation strategies, acceptability, and feasibility of new and repurposed TB vaccines.

Recently, two Phase 2B tuberculosis vaccine trials reported positive efficacy results in adolescents and adults. However, experience in vaccinating these age groups is limited. We identified potential implementation strategies for the M72/AS01E vaccination and BCG-revaccination-like candidates and explored their acceptability and feasibility. We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews among key decision makers to identify implementation strategies and target groups in South Africa, India, and China. Thematic and deductive analysis using a coding framework were used to identify themes across and within settings. In all three countries there was interest in novel TB vaccines, with school-attending adolescents named as a likely target group. In China and India, older people were also identified as a target group. Routine vaccination was preferred in all countries due to stigma and logistical issues with targeted mass campaigns. Perceived benefits for implementation of M72/AS01E were the likely efficacy in individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and efficacy for people living with HIV. Perceived challenges for M72/AS01E included the infrastructure and the two-dose regimen required. Stakeholders valued the familiarity of BCG but were concerned about the adverse effects in people living with HIV, a particular concern in South Africa. Implementation challenges and opportunities were identified in all three countries. Our study provides crucial information for implementing novel TB vaccines in specific target groups and on country specific acceptability and feasibility. Key groups for vaccine implementation in these settings were identified, and should be included in clinical trials and implementation planning.

How Should Economic Evaluation Be Used to Measure Value and Set Priorities in Health Care?

Novel interventions that are effective and safe but costly suggest the importance of questions about value, accessibility, and affordability. Economic evaluation is one useful tool that health care systems draw upon to help make investment decisions and set priorities. But translating results from economic evaluations into actionable insights about a novel intervention's value remains elusive, given ethical and practical complexities. This article illuminates 5 key factors to consider in interpretating economic evaluations of novel interventions: the health care decision problem, the design and structure of the mathematical model, characterization of uncertainty, awareness of health outcome measure limitations, and the contrast between optimal decision-making conditions and real-world decision-making conditions.

Global consumption of prescription opioid analgesics between 2009-2019: a country-level observational study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid analgesics play a key role in pain management but providing access while mitigating risk of misuse and dependence remains a challenge. Tracking global consumption of all opioids over time can help identify emerging patterns and drivers of use. METHODS: Prescription opioid analgesic consumption was estimated for 76 countries between 2009 and 2019 using IQVIA MIDAS data. We reported country-level consumption trends in morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs), assessed differences in consumption between high-income (HICs), upper-middle income (UMICs), and low- and lower-middle income countries (LMICs), and identified country-level socioeconomic drivers of consumption using fixed-effects panel regression models. FINDINGS: Global opioid consumption rate declined from 216·3 to 151·5 morphine milligram equivalents per 1,000 inhabitants per day (MID) between 2009 and 2019, with consumption declines in the US and Germany. Overall, consumption rates increased in HICs by a median 36·6 MID (IQR, -7·5 -124·5) with substantial heterogeneity between countries. Median consumption rates were lower in UMICs (23·6 MID) and LMICs (8·3 MID) compared to HICs (345·1 MID) and increased by median 10·4 and 3·7 MID from 2009-2019, respectively. Consumption rates were associated with income (coefficient 18·84, 95% confidence interval 3·8-33·9) and trade (13·59, 1·3-25·8) in UMICs, and physician density (1·95, 1·2-2·7) in LMICs. Tramadol consumption rate increased in the study period and accounted for a relatively large proportion of total opioid volume consumed across all country-income groups. INTERPRETATION: Substantial heterogeneity in global opioid consumption patterns reflect the challenges involved with providing adequate access to opioid treatment while avoiding potential misuse.

The relationship between off-hours admissions for primary percutaneous coronary intervention, door-to-balloon time and mortality for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction in England: a registry-based prospective national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The degree to which elevated mortality associated with weekend or night-time hospital admissions reflects poorer quality of care ('off-hours effect') is a contentious issue. We examined if off-hours admissions for primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) were associated with higher adjusted mortality and estimated the extent to which potential differences in door-to-balloon (DTB) times-a key indicator of care quality for ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients-could explain this association. METHODS: Nationwide registry-based prospective observational study using Myocardial Ischemia National Audit Project data in England. We examined how off-hours admissions and DTB times were associated with our primary outcome measure, 30-day mortality, using hierarchical logistic regression models that adjusted for STEMI patient risk factors. In-hospital mortality was assessed as a secondary outcome. RESULTS: From 76 648 records of patients undergoing PPCI between January 2007 and December 2012, we included 42 677 admissions in our analysis. Fifty-six per cent of admissions for PPCI occurred during off-hours. PPCI admissions during off-hours were associated with a higher likelihood of adjusted 30-day mortality (OR 1.13; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.25). The median DTB time was longer for off-hours admissions (45 min; IQR 30-68) than regular hours (38 min; IQR 27-58; p<0.001). After adjusting for DTB time, the difference in adjusted 30-day mortality between regular and off-hours admissions for PPCI was attenuated and no longer statistically significant (OR 1.08; CI 0.97 to 1.20). CONCLUSION: Higher adjusted mortality associated with off-hours admissions for PPCI could be partly explained by differences in DTB times. Further investigations to understand the off-hours effect should focus on conditions likely to be sensitive to the rapid availability of services, where timeliness of care is a significant determinant of outcomes.

It's not ageing, stupid: why population ageing won't bankrupt health systems.

An ageing population is often viewed as a factor that will increase healthcare expenditures (HCE) to unsustainable levels. With nearly half the disease burden in high-income countries arising in older people, there are concerns that caring for a burgeoning older population that is sick and dependent on support will not be possible. The aim of this narrative review is to examine how population ageing is likely to affect future HCE growth. We find that despite the increasing share of older people over the next few decades, the changing age-mix will not be a significant driver of HCE growth. While older people, on average, incur higher per person healthcare spending than younger people, the proportions of the population at the oldest and most costly age groups increase very slowly over time. In the European Union, we estimate the changing age-mix to result in the increase of the average annual growth in per person health spending by no more than 0.6 additional percentage points per year between 2015 and 2050. Therefore, price growth and technological advancements, independent of population ageing, will be the main contributors to future HCE growth.